Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The national average ex-farm price of ternary live pigs is 10.05 yuan/kg, slightly down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the overall price continues to operate at a low level. The market shows signs of bottoming out. As the price drops, secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing increase slightly, and the price stops falling and stabilizes. However, terminal consumption remains weak, and there is no obvious positive support in the short term. It is expected that the pig price will mainly fluctuate at the bottom. The industry is under great pressure as both self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening are in deep losses. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and it may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of futures contracts for January, March, May, July, September, and November are 13,810, 10,180, 10,695, 12,115, 13,085, and 13,295 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes are - 30, 0, - 115, - 25, 25, and - 25, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.22%, 0.00%, - 1.06%, - 0.21%, 0.19%, and - 0.19% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes are 4,996, 7, 131,400, 20,734, 14,714, and 4,507 respectively. The open interests are 20,179, 101, 202,398, 66,232, 62,323, and 40,594 respectively. The changes in open interest are 571, - 10, - 364, 3,491, 1,139, and 715 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 3,630, - 515, - 1,420, - 970, - 210, and - 515 respectively, compared with the previous spreads of 3,660, - 630, - 1,330, - 920, - 260, and - 520 [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 10.14, 10.07, 10.17, 10.71, 9.99, and 9.86 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous prices, the changes are - 0.09, - 20.14, 0, 0, - 0.09, and 0 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 1,132, with no change from the previous two days [2]

Report Overview - Research Variety: Live pigs - Report Type: Daily report - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 1. Futures Market - The opening price of the main contract LH2603 of live pig futures was 11,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.08%. The trading volume was 57,954 lots, and the turnover was 10.937 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [2] 2. Spot Market - The daily basis was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.42%. The basis widened slightly compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the spot price still supported the futures [4] 3. Influencing Factors - Stable average slaughter weight: The average slaughter weight of external ternary live pigs nationwide was 123.32 kg, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There was no significant reduction in supply, but the marginal demand for large-weight pigs improved [5] - Increased reluctance to sell among farmers: Affected by low-temperature weather, the market demand for large-weight pigs increased, and some farmers held back on sales, slowing the short-term supply rhythm [6] - No significant increase in consumption: After New Year's Day, the fresh sales demand weakened, the cured meat consumption was coming to an end, and the Spring Festival in 2026 was late (February 17). The centralized stocking had not started yet, and the terminal digestion capacity was limited [6] 4. Market Outlook - The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The upward drivers come from the rigidity of spot prices and the expectation of capacity reduction, while the downward pressure stems from the high inventory level and the uncertainty of feed costs. Attention should be paid to the spot price trend in mid-to-late January, the latest data on the inventory of breeding sows, and the changes in feed prices [7]