1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot and futures prices of live pigs showed a weak trend. The supply side had an increase in group enterprise sales, while some retail farmers were still reluctant to sell. The demand side faced losses in the downstream slaughtering industry during the peak season, with a slow increase in slaughter volume. Looking ahead to next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is likely to increase, and the demand during the peak season is not as expected, with the supply pressure likely to be postponed after the Spring Festival. The LH2603 futures contract may trade with a discount logic in advance, and investors should pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (1.26 - 2.1) 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 27.35 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The price of live pigs in Henan was 12.68 yuan/kg, down from 13.28 yuan/kg last week. The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1559 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The average national slaughter weight was 124.33KG, a 0.14% decrease from last week. The downstream slaughtering industry was in a loss during the peak season, and the slaughter volume increased slowly [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - The highest price of the LH2603 live pig futures contract this week was 11530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11150 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11220 yuan/ton, down from 11565 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2603 contract was 1460 yuan/ton, down from 1715 yuan/ton last week [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (2.2 - 2.8) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The live pig spot price will fluctuate weakly. In January, the planned slaughter decreased month - on - month, but due to low enterprise slaughter enthusiasm and negative feedback from the slaughtering industry, the demand was lower than expected, and there were signs of passive inventory accumulation. According to piglet data, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. The Spring Festival is late, and the pre - holiday speculative demand was front - loaded in January, but the slaughter volume decreased during the peak season around January 20, and the negative feedback of downstream losses limited the increase in the peak - season demand. In February, the daily slaughter plan increased significantly, and the spot pressure is expected to increase [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11220 yuan/ton on January 30. In January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, second - fattening entered the market, and inventory was accumulated during the peak season. The downstream losses during the peak season inhibited the increase in slaughter volume, and the demand after Laba was lower than expected, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. In February, the daily slaughter plan increased significantly, and the supply pressure is likely to be postponed after the Spring Festival. The standard pig warehouse - receipt price in Guangdong is basically at the same level as the March contract. Considering various factors, the industry has a strong willingness to hold and deliver, and the March contract may trade with a discount logic in advance. The short - term support level of the LH2603 contract is 10000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11500 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Other Data - The basis this week was 1460 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 430 yuan/ton [8] - The average weight this week was 124.33KG (last week was 124.5KG). In November, the pork production was 5.46 billion tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous month; in December, the pork import was 5.36 million tons, a 7.23% decrease from the previous month [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

Report Overview - Research Variety: Live pigs - Report Type: Daily report - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 1. Futures Market - The opening price of the main contract LH2603 of live pig futures was 11,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.08%. The trading volume was 57,954 lots, and the turnover was 10.937 billion yuan, indicating active market trading [2] 2. Spot Market - The daily basis was 1,085 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.42%. The basis widened slightly compared to the previous trading day, indicating that the spot price still supported the futures [4] 3. Influencing Factors - Stable average slaughter weight: The average slaughter weight of external ternary live pigs nationwide was 123.32 kg, at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There was no significant reduction in supply, but the marginal demand for large-weight pigs improved [5] - Increased reluctance to sell among farmers: Affected by low-temperature weather, the market demand for large-weight pigs increased, and some farmers held back on sales, slowing the short-term supply rhythm [6] - No significant increase in consumption: After New Year's Day, the fresh sales demand weakened, the cured meat consumption was coming to an end, and the Spring Festival in 2026 was late (February 17). The centralized stocking had not started yet, and the terminal digestion capacity was limited [6] 4. Market Outlook - The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. The upward drivers come from the rigidity of spot prices and the expectation of capacity reduction, while the downward pressure stems from the high inventory level and the uncertainty of feed costs. Attention should be paid to the spot price trend in mid-to-late January, the latest data on the inventory of breeding sows, and the changes in feed prices [7]