行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 06 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 生猪行情： 期货方面，5 日生猪主力 2603 合约低开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最 高 11775 元/吨，最低 11610 元/吨，收盘报 1166 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth until the first half of next year, and the concentrated second - fattening and pig holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared with the actual sales volume in October. The demand for terminal consumption has increased due to the cooling weather, but the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate mainly, while futures prices are expected to continue to be weak in the medium - to - long term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 24th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,940 lots to 381,487 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 24th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.57 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter will increase slightly until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased. The demand for terminal consumption increased due to the cooling weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased. However, the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No industry news is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit and Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [18]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg from the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [18].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a strong performance, with live pig futures experiencing a price increase, reaching a high of 15,150 yuan per ton, marking a rise of approximately 1.88% [1] - Minmetals Futures noted that the supply from the breeding sector is adequate, but high temperatures and rainfall are suppressing pork demand, leading to a potential stabilization or slight decrease in prices [1] - The market is expected to face pressure from increased supply and stocking up ahead of the Spring Festival, with the possibility of price increases in August, although new highs may be difficult to achieve [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that the pace of live pig sales has slowed, and the breeding sector's reluctance to sell is supporting price stability at the bottom [2] - Despite a rebound in prices, there are concerns about long-term overcapacity, making sustained price increases challenging [2] - Ruida Futures highlighted that mid-term supply pressures are increasing, and weak demand is limiting price growth, although lower prices may attract new entrants into the market [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with live pig futures experiencing a downward trend, closing at 14,235.00 CNY/ton, down 1.65% from the previous session [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3% increase in pork production in the first half of the year, with live pig inventory at 42,447 million heads, up 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The current sentiment in the live pig market is weak, with spot prices continuing to decline, leading to a significant narrowing of the basis between spot and futures prices [1] Group 2 - According to Wengang Futures, the increase in slaughtering may be limited due to weak downstream orders, resulting in a slight overall decline in pig prices [2] - New Century Futures anticipates a continued increase in live pig supply, while high temperatures are expected to suppress consumer demand, leading to a slight decrease in slaughterhouse operating rates [2]