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生猪数据日报-20250819
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 12:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].
生猪数据日报-20250718
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 03:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]