生猪产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11595 | -760 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 58336 | -2769 | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -32443 | -4742 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11500 | -1100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 11400 | -800 | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | | 12100 | -600 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -95 | -340 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4038 | -4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.4 | -0.4 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2940 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of live pigs has reached a new low, prompting 25 major pig farming companies to be required to reduce production by 1 million heads by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in the livestock farming sector [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of mid-September, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 13 yuan per kilogram, marking a new low [1] - The main futures contract for live pigs (LH2511) fell to 12.595 yuan per kilogram, also a new low [1] - The average price of live pigs is now below the cost line for some farming enterprises, leading to widespread losses in the sector [1] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The profit from purchasing piglets was reported at -199.31 yuan per head, while self-breeding profits were at -24.44 yuan per head, indicating a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [1] - The average weight of pigs at market has increased from 127.8 kg in August to 128.45 kg in September, suggesting higher supply levels [1] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - A meeting was held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, where 25 leading pig farming companies were instructed to reduce production [2] - The policy focus is on "controlling production and nurturing" while detailing the "controlling reproductive capacity" tasks for each farming entity [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of regulatory controls and losses [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a net inflow of 117 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating investor interest despite current market conditions [1] - The ETF closely tracks the livestock farming index, with approximately 60% of its weight in pig farming-related stocks, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report" [2] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot prices are expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to trend downward [4][7] - The decline in futures prices is mainly due to the expected supply pressure, and the far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes. Although the current price is low, there is still a certain downward pressure [7] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of pigs today is 12.68 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [4] Futures Prices - Futures prices of various contracts have mostly declined, such as LH01 down 180 to 13330, LH03 down 150 to 12855 [4] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 259 yuan, down 32 from last week; sow prices are 1590 yuan, down 2 from last week [4] Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profit is 16.84 yuan/head, down 15.39 from yesterday; profit from purchasing piglets is - 161.93 yuan/head, down 13.53 from yesterday [4] Contract Spreads - Spreads between different contracts have changed, such as LH7 - 9 down 150 to 1165, LH9 - 1 up 180 to - 345 [4] Slaughter Data - The slaughter volume is 149450 heads, an increase of 842 from yesterday [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short near - month contracts on rallies - Arbitrage: Reverse spread on LH15 - Options: Hold off on trading [8]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.51%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 22,771.67 billion yuan [1][5]. - In the Shenwan industry classification, the leading sectors included power equipment, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, while the sectors that lagged included comprehensive, communication, and national defense industries [1][5]. Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month. The service production index increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. From January to August, fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1% and real estate development investment declining by 12.9% [2][6]. Industry Analysis - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector reported a total revenue of 6,147.88 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, ranking third among Shenwan's primary industries. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 269.80 billion yuan, up 173.11% year-on-year, ranking second among primary industries [7]. - The breeding industry segment achieved a revenue of 2,382.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.48%, with a net profit of 169.28 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 584.24%. Major players like Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and Wens Foodstuff Group saw substantial profit increases [8][10]. - The feed segment reported a revenue of 1,348.13 billion yuan, up 12.56% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.87 billion yuan, which is a 106.15% increase year-on-year. The segment's profit margins improved, with gross and net profit margins at 11.70% and 3.61%, respectively [8][10]. - The planting industry segment generated a revenue of 502.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, but the net profit decreased by 9.06% to 1.587 billion yuan. Despite some companies facing profit declines, leading firms like Noposion and Beidahuang maintained stable performance [8][10]. - The agricultural product processing segment achieved a revenue of 1,648.71 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.32% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 23.55% to 34.18 billion yuan, with leading company Jinlongyu showing significant profit growth [8][10]. Investment Recommendations - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's performance in the first half of 2025 was strong, with revenue and profit growth rates among the highest in the market. The breeding industry's profitability has significantly improved, and the feed segment also saw revenue and profit increases. The current trend in pig farming capacity reduction suggests that leading companies in pig farming still have low valuations. The pet food industry, with its low concentration, presents substantial growth opportunities for domestic companies [10].

Group 1 - Recent capital inflow into the aquaculture sector, with the aquaculture ETF (159865) seeing over 250 million yuan in net inflows over three trading days [1] - According to Guojin Securities, after a period of adjustment, the valuation of pig farming enterprises is at a bottom range, with leading companies expected to maintain good profitability in the short term [1] - If supply pressure leads to capacity reduction in the industry in the second half of the year, leading companies can still rely on cost advantages to steadily increase market share, indicating a stabilization at the bottom of the sector's prosperity [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, which has a high "pig" component, presenting investment opportunities for interested investors [1] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector through the aquaculture ETF's linked fund (012725) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - **Demand Side**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed**: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today's spot price of live pigs has limited upward momentum, showing a stable and slightly weak trend. The overall futures market is still trading under the pressure of increasing inventory, with short - term futures showing a volatile and weak trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Spot Price and Futures Price - On September 3, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The prices in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. For example, Shandong dropped by 0.17 yuan/kg, and Hebei dropped by 0.13 yuan/kg [3]. - The price of LH2511 was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan; LH2603 was 13,130 yuan, up 35 yuan [3]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - According to Yongyi data, the monthly live pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight decline was slower than expected, and secondary fattening was relatively stable [3]. - This week, the average national slaughter weight was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. Group enterprises' progress in completing their tasks was slow, and there was still a shift of production capacity to later periods [3]. 3.3 Market of Piglets - This week, the average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from last week. Recently, piglet prices have been continuously declining. Currently, it is the off - season for piglet replenishment, and farmers' demand for piglets has significantly weakened [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The effect of weight reduction in live pig breeding has not been obvious recently. There is still pressure on the spot market, but the process of capacity reduction takes time. Although the spot price has risen in the short term, the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the hog price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly. However, the stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics - On September 3, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs. The main hog contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 208 lots today, with a holding of about 73,600 lots. The highest price was 13,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,550 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard hogs may strengthen oscillatory. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish view believes that the weight - reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for hog prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish view holds that the farming sector has reduced the weight of hogs, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for hogs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stable and rebounding price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support the hog price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of hogs or maintain a stable weight, the hog price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Market Overview - On September 3, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.43% from the previous day, and the price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.84 yuan/kg. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 55 yuan/ton or 0.4%, the 03 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton or 0.27%, the 05 contract increased by 75 yuan/ton or 0.55%, the 07 contract increased by 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%, the 09 contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton or 0.64%, and the 11 contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, national corn purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends are shown through charts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. There is a likelihood of a monthly increase in the number of live pigs for slaughter until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stable rebound of the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs provides some support to pig prices. If the farmers continue to reduce the weight of pigs or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 2nd, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,076 lots today, with a position of about 73,400 lots. The highest price of the day was 13,645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,500 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,595 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced the weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think, and although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of live pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract price is almost at par with the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **National average live pig slaughter price**: On September 2nd, it was 14.03 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.36%. - **Provincial - level live pig slaughter prices**: In Henan, it was 14.08 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day, a decrease of 1.61%. In Sichuan, it was 13.84 yuan/kg, up 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day, an increase of 1.24%. - **Futures prices**: The prices of different contracts showed different trends. For example, the 01 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.14%; the 11 contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. - **Main contract basis**: In Henan, it was 485 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 29.2% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, and the price differences between different contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not repeated here [14].

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has shown significant growth in its performance for the first half of the year, with notable increases in revenue and profit metrics, despite mixed results across different business segments [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 8.847 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.68% [2] - Total profit reached 421 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.29% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 338 million, up 22.27% year-on-year [2] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 314 million, an increase of 16.17% year-on-year [2] Business Segment Performance - Feed business sales volume was 134.15 thousand tons, with sales revenue of 2.434 billion, a decline of 14.24% year-on-year [2] - Pig sales reached 1.5282 million heads, a growth of 9.05%, with sales revenue of 2.849 billion, down 0.95% year-on-year [2] - Animal vaccine business sales revenue was 482 million, with growth details not specified [2] - Protein oil business sales revenue was 1.449 billion, showing a significant increase of 97.60% year-on-year [2] - Corn storage business sales revenue was 1.305 billion, up 72.32% year-on-year [2] Cost Management and Strategic Developments - Self-breeding costs decreased to 12.55 per kilogram, with potential for further reduction as piglet prices decline [3] - The company is in the process of acquiring Qiangdu Livestock, which has shown strong operational performance and cost competitiveness [3] - The protein oil business has seen a significant increase in profitability, with a recent joint venture contributing positively [3] - The corn storage business has turned profitable after a period of losses, with expectations for continued good performance [3] - TianKang Pharmaceutical's listing progress is ongoing, with recent inquiries and updates planned [3]