明日主题前瞻 1、算力 | 日前，谷歌在其全员大会上披露了未来AI基础设施的宏伟目标，计划"每6个月将算力容量翻倍"，并在未来4到5年内实现"1000倍能力提升"，谷歌 云AI基础设施负责人Vahdat强调，AI基础设施竞争是整个AI竞赛中最关键、也最昂贵的部分。他指出，谷歌的任务不是比谁花得更多，而是要构建更可靠、 更高性能、更具扩展性的基础设施。 点评：分析认为，本周谷歌接连发布Gemini3通用AI模型与Nano Banana Pro专业图像生成模型，实现双产品AI革新，现象级多模态模型的推出有望进一步提 升算力与存力的需求。谷歌CEO皮查伊近日指出，计算能力供应是当前的核心瓶颈。与此同时，英伟达数据中心业务的强劲增长，直接印证了人工智能和大 型模型训练对高性能计算的巨大渴求，显著减缓了市场对AI泡沫预期破裂的风险。机构认为，AI正逐步推动基础设施投资与商业模式形成闭环，看好AI产 业链业绩上修与估值提升机遇以及AI需求带动下的投资机遇。 2、存储 | 11月23日，长鑫存储正式发布其最新DDR5产品系列，最高速率达8000Mbps，最高颗粒容量24Gb，并同步推出覆盖服务器、工作站及个人电脑全 领域的 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Feed and Aquaculture Daily Report - Research Areas: Pig, Corn and Starch, Egg Pig Market Core View - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. Strategically, a long - term bullish view can be taken, but in the short - to medium - term, fundamentals prevail. Recently, the second - fattening replenishment has weakened, and the near - term slaughter pressure persists, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a stronger trend [3] Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The national average spot price of pigs is 11.54 yuan, up 0.07 yuan (0.61%). Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, etc., also show varying degrees of increase [4] - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different pig futures contracts show mixed trends. For example, the price of the Pig 01 contract is 11,560 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.22%), while the Pig 03 contract is 11,350 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%) [5] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different pig futures contracts and between regions and contracts show significant fluctuations. For example, the LH01 - 03 spread is 180 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 20%) [10] Corn and Starch Market Core View - The spot market of corn was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising prices. After the recent continuous rebound of corn prices, the supply - side's reluctance to sell has eased, and the arrival volume in Shandong has increased. The downstream's willingness to purchase at high prices has decreased, and the price has entered a short - term balance. The futures market showed a slight correction. The starch market was stable, and the futures market followed the decline of corn and fell more than corn [14] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different corn and corn starch futures contracts all showed increases. For example, the price of the Corn 01 contract is 2,175 yuan, up 7 yuan (0.32%), and the Corn Starch 01 contract is 2,480 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.53%) [15] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different ports and the basis of corn and corn starch in different regions also showed certain changes. For example, the price of corn in Shekou Port is 2,370 yuan, up 10 yuan, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 62 yuan, up 14 yuan [19] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of corn and corn starch showed different trends. For example, the Corn 1 - 5 month - to - month spread is - 73 yuan, down 12 yuan [22] - **US Corn**: The prices of CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat showed slight fluctuations. The US Gulf and West Coast's duty - paid prices decreased, and there were corresponding import profits [27] Egg Market Core View - In the long - term, the egg - laying hen production capacity is still in excess, and there is significant price pressure. In the short - term, due to the rapid decline of egg prices after the festival, some farmers have culled or molted hens. Overall, the production capacity is at a high level but is approaching an inflection point, and the general trend is still weak [30] Price Information - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of different egg futures contracts showed mixed trends. The Egg 01 contract is 3,180 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.16%), and the Egg 09 contract is 3,872 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.34%) [31] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas, as well as different types of eggs, all showed declines. For example, the price of eggs in the main production areas is 2.86 yuan, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.69%) [32] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of different egg futures contracts and between the main production areas and the main contract showed significant fluctuations. For example, the Egg 1 - 5 spread is - 288 yuan, down 18 yuan (6.67%) [42]

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 【生猪日报】供应整体稳定 价格小幅震荡 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.62 | 11.53 | 0.09 | 山西（-100） | 11.17 | 11.13 | 0.04 | | 湖北（0） | 11.23 | 11.23 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 11.37 | 11.37 | 0 | | 安徽（200） | 11.74 | 11.65 | 0.09 | 吉林（-300） | 11.40 | 11.37 | 0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 11.33 | 11.33 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 11.63 | 11.49 ...

| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一层到广杨璐琳 | | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | 2025/11/18 | | | 地区 | 2025/11/17 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | | 与2601基差 | | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.53 | -0. 32 | | Or B | -270 | | -320 | | | 湖南 | 11. 33 | 0 | 100 | | -570 > | | 0 | | | 湖北 | 11.23 | -0.12012 | 0 | | -570 | | +1-120 | | | 安徽 | 11.65 | -0.26 | 200 | | -350 | | -260 | | | 江西 | 11.26 | -0. 08 | 100 | | -640 | | -80 | | | 山西 | 11.13 | -0. 32 | -100 | | -570 | | -32 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production and weak export data, while the Dalian palm oil futures are expected to try to break through 8900. - Soybean oil: The global crude oil supply - demand forecast in 2026 by OPEC has affected the soybean oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the spot basis is likely to remain stable [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak, but there is an expectation of strengthening in the market tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA monthly report is expected to show little change in the ending stocks. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [7]. 2.4 Corn Industry - Corn prices in the Northeast are rising locally, and those in the North China are stable with a slight upward trend. The price increase and decrease are limited due to supply pressures and cost and policy support. The short - term corn price may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is restricted [8]. 2.5 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are falling, and the domestic cotton price is likely to be in a range - bound pattern due to hedging pressure and cost support, with weak downstream demand but rigid raw - material demand from textile enterprises [11]. 2.6 Sugar Industry - Brazilian rainfall may affect sugarcane crushing, and India's sugar export has uncertainties. The domestic sugar market is expected to be in a price - oscillation state, with the new - season sugarcane crushing in Guangxi likely to be postponed [13][14]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs remains under pressure as the laying - hen inventory is high in November. The consumption is weak, but the egg price is at a bottom - range, and 2512 short positions can be gradually closed at a low price below 3000 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8560, the futures price of Y2601 rose 0.34% to 8316, and the basis decreased 10.29% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong dropped 0.58% to 8570, the futures price of P2601 rose 0.09% to 8752, and the basis decreased 46.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu rose 1.48% to 10260, the futures price of OI601 rose 1.37% to 9975, and the basis rose 5.56% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased 0.89%, that of palm oil decreased 13.33%, and that of rapeseed oil increased 9.11% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of pig 2605 rose 0.82% to 12235, and that of pig 2601 rose 0.55% to 11860. - Spot: The spot prices in most regions decreased, such as in Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - The sample - point slaughter volume decreased 0.74%, the white - strip price decreased 0.53%, and the piglet price decreased 15% [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3050, the futures price of M2601 rose 0.39% to 3071, and the basis decreased 133.33% [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 decreased 0.08% to 2492, and the basis increased 33.33% [7]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.78%, and that of rapeseed meal increased 1.61% [7]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Corn: The futures price of corn 2601 rose 0.41% to 2186, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price rose 0.46% to 2200, and the basis rose 7.69% [8]. - Corn starch: The futures price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.68% to 2507, and the basis decreased 85% [8]. 3.4.2 Industry Indicators - The import profit of corn increased 4.66%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased 14.54% [8]. 3.5 Cotton Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased 0.22% to 13495, and that of cotton 2601 decreased 0.18% to 13490. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased 0.38% to 14614, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased 0.22% to 14819 [11]. 3.5.2 Industry Indicators - The commercial inventory increased 70.4% to 293.06 tons, and the industrial inventory increased 9.7% to 88.82 tons [11]. 3.6 Sugar Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 rose 0.62% to 5512, and that of sugar 2605 rose 0.41% to 5433. - Spot: The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5660, and the Kunming spot price remained unchanged at 5540 [13]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the national sugar sales increased 9.17% to 1048.00 tons [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased 0.75% to 3040, and the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased 1.72% to 3322. - The egg - producing area price decreased 0.25% to 2.99 yuan per catty [16]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - The egg - chicken feed ratio decreased 1.68% to 2.34, and the breeding profit decreased 8.51% to - 26.52 yuan per chicken [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall spot market has stabilized, mainly influenced by sales and secondary fattening. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight of national pigs in October was 128.08 kg, a decrease of 0.31 kg from September, and the overall reduction is still insufficient. Although the breeding profit and piglet profit are already in the red, the duration of the losses needs continuous monitoring. Demand remains largely unchanged before December, and the frozen product inventory is gradually rising back to normal levels. Overall, there is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but the spot price fluctuations have gradually flattened recently due to secondary fattening. Futures prices fluctuate in tandem with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity in the later period [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Spot Price and Basis - On November 11, 2025, the national average pig price was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline, with the highest price in Guangdong at 12.68 yuan/kg and the lowest price in Guizhou at 11.24 yuan/kg. The basis between the spot price and LH2601 also showed different degrees of change [3] 3.2 Futures Price - On November 11, 2025, LH2601 closed at 11,755 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; LH2603 closed at 11,465 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; LH2605 closed at 12,065 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between LH01 - 03 was 290 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan; the spread between LH03 - 05 was -600 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan [3] 3.3 Market Analysis - The overall spot market is stable, mainly affected by sales and secondary fattening. The average slaughter weight has decreased, but the reduction is still insufficient. Breeding and piglet profits are in the red, and the duration of losses needs to be monitored. Demand is stable before December, and frozen product inventory is rising. There is still pressure on pig sales from November to December, but spot price fluctuations have flattened. Futures prices fluctuate with the spot market, and attention should be paid to further release of production capacity [3]

Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of live pigs in the far - month. Strategically, it is possible to be bullish in the long - cycle, but the short - to - medium term is still based on fundamentals. Recently, the group farms and second - fattening groups have reduced their slaughter, and some second - fattening operations have gradually replenished for fattening. The futures market shows signs of a bottom. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve, supporting prices during the peak season [2] 3) Content Summaries Market Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the average slaughter price of live pigs in China, the seasonal number of live pig warehouse receipts, the impact of breeding sow inventory on live pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan live pig prices, the change in live pig inventory structure, the average slaughter weight of live pigs, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the frozen pork storage rate, the average price of culled sows, the culling volume of breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchasing pigs for fattening, the seasonal self - breeding profit of pigs, the seasonal slaughter gross profit of pigs, the operating rate of key slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [3][4][5][7][10][11][13]

上述数据未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，因此上述数据仅作为阶段性数据供投资 者参考。 （企业公告） (编辑：王璨 林辰)关键字： 食品 唐人神 2025年10月公司生猪销量同比增长的主要原因是"公司+农户"养殖模式的生猪出栏量增加。 2025年1-10月累计生猪销量438.14万头（其中商品猪419.21 万头，仔猪18.93万头），2024年1-10月累计 生猪销量328.88万头（其中商品猪294.54万头，仔猪 34.34万头），同比上升33.22%；销售收入72.23亿 元，同比上升21.99%。 11月10日，唐人神发布公告称，公司2025年10月生猪销量61.92 万头（其中商品猪59.90万头，仔猪2.02 万头），2024年10月生猪销量49.74万头（其中商品猪46.7万头，仔猪3.04万头），同比上升24.49%，环 比上升50.69%；销售收入合计8.28亿元，同比下降17.91%，环比增长29.49%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Bullish [3] - Strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise in spot pig prices is driven by the imbalance of inventory structure, not a fundamental change in the supply - demand fundamentals. The overall supply of the market remains loose, and the rebound of pig prices is limited. The growth rate of pig supply is still high, while the demand is not strong enough. It is recommended to short the January contract on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [3]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report shows the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, with data from Wind [5][6][7]. - 1.2 Pig Basis: It presents the basis of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [9][10][11]. - 1.3 Pig Price Spread: The report shows the price spreads of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [13][15]. - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Positions: It shows the long - to - short ratios of institutional positions in the January and March pig futures contracts, with data from Wind [17][18][19]. Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows is presented, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [21][23]. - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the Henan piglet - to - pig price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, with data from MySteel [25]. - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample enterprises and the slaughter structure are shown, with data from MySteel [28][30]. - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price spread are presented, with data from MySteel [31][32][33]. Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: The daily slaughter rate of key pig slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of slaughter gross profit are shown, with data from MySteel [34][35][36]. - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the frozen product storage rate, are presented [37][38]. - 3.3 Substitutes: The seasonal charts of the price ratios between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are shown, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [40][41][42]. Profit Analysis - 4.1 Breeding Profit: The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets are presented, as well as the seasonal chart of self - breeding and self - raising profits [43][44]. - 4.2 Pig - to - Grain Price Ratio: The pig - to - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart are shown [45][46].