1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of live pigs across the country are oscillating, and the downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has generally improved. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on future pig出栏量 may be better than before. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers has changed little and remains at a relatively low level, and future出栏量 may increase. Secondary fattening has shown some signs of entry, but the market is still cautious. The supply - side pressure is still obvious, and the short - term supply and demand in the live pig market are still relatively loose. The downward pressure on live pig futures prices has shifted to the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts show obvious support. In the short term, futures prices may stabilize. If the spot price stabilizes, secondary fattening may drive the spot price up again, and futures may be supported. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still significant, and the overall price is expected to decline [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - Today, live pig prices across the country are oscillating, and the downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has generally improved. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on future pig出栏量 may be better than before. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers has changed little and remains at a relatively low level, and future出栏量 may increase. Secondary fattening has shown some signs of entry, but the market is still cautious. The出栏 weight of live pigs remains at a relatively high level, and the supply - side pressure is still obvious [1] Futures Information - The downward pressure on live pig futures prices has shifted to the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts show obvious support. The decline has narrowed. In the short term, futures prices may stabilize. If the spot price stabilizes, secondary fattening may drive the spot price up again, and futures may be supported. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still significant, and the overall price is expected to decline [3] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to take a bearish view on the 07 contract. Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. Options: Near - month short straddle strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with its slaughtering business achieving annual profitability for the first time [4][6] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 144.145 billion yuan (+4.49%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.487 billion yuan (-13.39%) [4] - The company has a strong cash dividend policy, distributing a total of 7.438 billion yuan, which accounts for 48% of its net profit [4] - The company is expected to maintain profitability through effective cost control and a dual-driven model of pig farming and slaughtering [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company sold 77.98 million pigs (+19.09%), with a full-year cost of goods sold for pigs at approximately 12 yuan/kg, down by 2 yuan/kg from the previous year [5] - The company aims to reduce the full-year cost to below 11.5 yuan/kg in 2026 [5] - The slaughtering business achieved revenue of 45.228 billion yuan (+86.32%) in 2025, with a gross margin of 2.67% [6] - The company’s asset-liability ratio improved to 54.15% (-4.53 percentage points) by the end of 2025, indicating a solid financial position [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 6.237 billion yuan, 29.162 billion yuan, and 37.524 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.08 yuan, 5.05 yuan, and 6.50 yuan for the same years [4] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 41.8 for 2026, 8.9 for 2027, and 7.0 for 2028 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with its slaughtering business achieving annual profitability for the first time [4][6] - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 144.145 billion yuan (+4.49%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.487 billion yuan (-13.39%) [4] - The company is expected to maintain profitability through effective cost control and a dual-driven model of pig farming and slaughtering [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, revenue was 32.355 billion yuan (-21.41%) and net profit was 708 million yuan (-90.43%) [4] - The total cash dividend for 2025 was 7.438 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2026-2027 due to changes in industry fundamentals, with expected net profits of 6.237 billion yuan and 29.162 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][5] Operational Highlights - The company sold 77.98 million pigs in 2025 (+19.09%), with a target of 75-81 million pigs for 2026 [5] - The complete cost of pig farming was approximately 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with a target to reduce it to below 11.5 yuan/kg in 2026 [5] - The slaughtering business achieved revenue of 45.228 billion yuan (+86.32%) in 2025, with a gross margin of 2.67% [6] Financial Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 249.567 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 164.654 billion yuan [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are projected to be 1.08 yuan, 5.05 yuan, and 6.50 yuan, respectively [4] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 41.8 for 2026, 8.9 for 2027, and 7.0 for 2028 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the current supply pressure in the live pig market is accelerating, with prices continuing to decline, reaching a new low of 9.37 CNY/kg as of March 27, 2026, down 0.50 CNY/kg from the previous week [3][14] - The report indicates that the demand side remains weak, with the national frozen product inventory rate rising to 19.57%, reflecting a shift from destocking to restocking [4][18] - The profitability of piglet farming has entered a loss zone, with the average profit per piglet sold dropping to -29 CNY, indicating a negative trend in market expectations for future restocking [5][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the low pig prices are leading to increased slaughtering activity, with daily slaughter volumes up by 2.25% compared to the previous week, indicating strong willingness from farmers to sell [3][14] - The average weight of pigs being sold shows significant differentiation, with smallholders reporting an average weight of 145.68 kg, which is 9.04 kg higher year-on-year [3][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector underperformed the broader market by 1.85 percentage points, with the agricultural index declining by 2.94% during the week [7][34] - Notable stock performances include West King Food (+13.88%), Huadong Holdings (+13.37%), and Yuehai Feed (+8.62%) leading the gains [7][34] Price Tracking - As of March 27, 2026, the national average price for live pigs was 9.39 CNY/kg, down 0.60 CNY/kg from the previous week, while piglet prices fell to 21.60 CNY/kg, a decrease of 1.52 CNY/kg [8][46] - The report also notes that the average profit for self-bred pigs was -344.24 CNY per head, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [8][47] Key News - A joint warning was issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration regarding the risk of farmland flooding due to expected heavy rainfall [6][42] - The report includes data on national feed production, which reached 5.185 million tons in January-February 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs in the southern region of China has decreased in the short - term after the end of the secondary fattening period, and the demand for cured meat and sausages has also ended, resulting in a decrease in both the supply of pigs and meat. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but the pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the short - term overall consumption is still not optimistic. The market supply is expected to decrease and the demand is weak, and the pig price may enter a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. The price of the LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 [10]. - The live pig spot price is in a short - term weak state, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and fall in the short term, then bottom out and rebound or maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of live pigs is expected to decrease, and the spot price is in a short - term weak state but may maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term. The futures price may oscillate and fall in the short term and then bottom out and rebound or maintain an oscillating pattern. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited [12]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season, and the end of secondary fattening in the south has led to a decrease in live pig supply. The spot price is in a short - term weak state and may maintain an oscillating pattern in the medium term [12]. - After the peak demand season, the live pig market has entered a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The short - term decline space of the price is limited, and it may bottom out and rebound to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The profit of domestic live pig breeding has shown small fluctuations in losses recently, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has increased in the short term. The situation of increased supply and weak demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live pig futures and spot prices [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic live pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic live pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [10]. - As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is increasing [10].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the retail sector during the Spring Festival, with major retail enterprises showing a 24% year-on-year increase in daily sales, particularly in gold and jewelry, which saw a 33.4% increase [4] - The metal industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand structure, with a shift towards a weak supply cycle and increased demand driven by green energy transitions and advancements in production capabilities [6][7] - The rare earth industry is undergoing a structural optimization, with supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and robotics, leading to a potential revaluation of the industry [8] Economic News - The People's Bank of China has announced support for domestic banks to conduct cross-border RMB financing, aiming to enhance the management and transparency of such operations [2] - The Ministry of Commerce has placed Japanese entities on an export control list due to concerns over Japan's military expansion, reflecting geopolitical tensions [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has introduced new regulations for online food delivery services to ensure food safety [2] Company-Specific Insights - Goldfish Company reported a revenue of 245.13 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 3.153 billion yuan, marking a 26.01% year-on-year increase [4] - Xingsen Technology is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with projected net profits between 132 million and 140 million yuan, driven by stable revenue growth in its semiconductor packaging business [19][21] - The lithium industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems [11] Industry Trends - The small metals sector is anticipated to experience price and valuation elasticity due to improved supply-demand dynamics and liquidity premiums from global monetary policy shifts [6][7] - The global market for IC substrates is projected to grow from $16.69 billion in 2025 to $18.44 billion in 2026, driven by the demand for AI and high-performance computing [20] - The pig farming industry is facing downward pressure on prices, with January 2026 seeing a significant drop in pig prices, indicating a potential for accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and market conditions [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the pig market has improved, and pig prices have generally increased. However, in the short - term, there is still some pressure in the pig market, and the upside space is relatively limited. The futures price of pigs shows a certain oscillatory performance, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor, and the futures are expected to operate in a low - level oscillation [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the spot prices of pigs in various regions of the country showed an upward trend. The average price was 10.74 yuan, a decrease of 0.13 yuan compared with yesterday. Among them, the prices in some regions such as Henan, Hubei, and Anhui increased, while the prices in Sichuan, Fujian, and Guizhou decreased [4]. 3.2 Futures Price - The futures prices of pigs showed an oscillatory performance. Contracts such as LH01, LH07, LH09, and LH11 increased, while contracts such as LH03 and LH05 decreased [4]. 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The price of piglets this week was 359 yuan, a decrease of 6 yuan compared with last week. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1557 yuan [4]. 3.4 Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 98.32 yuan, a decrease of 60.23 yuan compared with yesterday. The spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 53.10 yuan, a decrease of 38.32 yuan compared with yesterday [4]. 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today was 121,757 heads, an increase of 6,136 heads compared with yesterday [4]. 3.6 Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan, the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 yuan, the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan, and the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs remained unchanged [4]. 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for 2025, indicating challenges in the pig farming sector due to falling sales prices and market conditions [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for 2025 was 5.235 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 43.59% [1] - The company sold 40.4769 million pigs during the reporting period, which included 35.4467 million market pigs and 5.0302 million piglets [1] - The average selling price of market pigs was 13.71 yuan per kilogram, down 17.95% year-on-year [1] Operational Insights - The company focused on enhancing basic production management and major disease prevention efforts, which helped maintain stable large-scale production [1] - Core production indicators continued to improve, despite the challenges faced in the market [1] - The company's breeding costs decreased year-on-year, but the significant drop in pig sales prices led to a decline in profitability for the pig farming business [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **For soybean meal (M2605)**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the U.S. soybeans' short - term range - bound movement influenced by USDA report data and technical factors. In China, the soybean meal market is affected by U.S. soybean trends, end - of - year demand, and news. The basis is positive, but inventory, price position relative to the 20 - day moving average, and主力持仓suggest a downward bias [9]. - **For soybeans (A2605)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4420 - 4520. The market is neutral, with U.S. soybeans waiting for further guidance on trade agreements and South American weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by strong spot prices and short - term demand, but also affected by trade agreements and Brazilian imports. The basis is negative, and inventory is a negative factor, while price position relative to the 20 - day moving average and主力持仓are positive [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hint - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark. - China's import of soybeans will continue to decline in Q1. Oil mills' soybean inventory remained high in January. With relatively normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, strong demand for soybean meal in January has supported its price. The combined influence of U.S. soybean trends and the recovery of soybean meal demand has maintained the range - bound pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - **Bearish factors**: The total import volume of soybeans in China remained high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - U.S. trade agreement [14]. **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased domestic demand for soybeans supports the price [15]. - **Bearish factors**: Brazil's bumper soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of U.S. soybean weather and the game of Sino - U.S. trade tariffs [15]. 4. Fundamental Data **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data** | Date | Soybean Meal Transaction Price | Soybean Meal Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | Rapeseed Meal Transaction Price | Rapeseed Meal Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | Price Difference between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Feb 2 | 3148 | 14.31 | 2460 | 0 | 688 | | Feb 3 | 3126 | 15.08 | 2450 | 0 | 676 | | Feb 4 | 3117 | 26.17 | 2450 | 0 | 667 | | Feb 5 | 3120 | 11.22 | 2430 | 0.5 | 690 | | Feb 6 | 3121 | 7.93 | 2440 | 3 | 681 | | Feb 9 | 3121 | 5.03 | 2430 | 0 | 691 | | Feb 10 | 3118 | 6.07 | 2430 | 0 | 691 | [16] **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices** | Date | Soybean No.1 Futures (2605) | Soybean No.2 Futures (2605) | Soybean Meal Futures (2605) | Soybean Meal Futures (2609) | Soybean No.1 Spot (Jiamusi) | Soybean No.2 Spot (Duty - paid price) | Soybean Meal Spot (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Feb 3 | 4384 | 3468 | 2727 | 2841 | 4400 | 3486 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 4 | 4375 | 3473 | 2723 | 2839 | 4400 | 3482 (Brazil) | 3010 | | Feb 5 | 4382 | 3468 | 2731 | 2854 | 4400 | 3499 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 6 | 4378 | 3468 | 2735 | 2858 | 4400 | 3520 (Brazil) | 3030 | | Feb 9 | 4383 | 3471 | 2729 | 2857 | 4400 | 3540 (Brazil) | 3020 | | Feb 10 | 4499 | 3468 | 2734 | 2858 | 4400 | 3530 (Brazil) | 3020 | [18] **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics** | Date | Soybean No.1 Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | Soybean No.2 Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipts (Change from previous day) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jan 30 | 25662 (0) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 2 | 25548 (- 114) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 3 | 25548 (0) | 0 (0) | 33428 (0) | | Feb 4 | 25548 (0) | 0 (0) | 36228 (+2800) | | Feb 5 | 25548 (0) | 700 (+700) | 36228 (0) | | Feb 6 | 25338 (- 210) | 700 (0) | 36228 (0) | | Feb 9 | 25338 (0) | 700 (0) | 36180 (- 48) | | Feb 10 | 25338 (0) | 700 (0) | 36180 (0) | [20] **Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets** - **Global**: From 2016 - 2025, data on harvest area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2016 - 2025, data on harvest area, beginning inventory, production, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [33]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Information - U.S. soybean weekly export inspection decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans was low at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [47]. - Oil mills' soybean inventory continued to decline, while soybean meal inventory rebounded from a low level [48]. - Oil mills' soybean crushing volume returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [50]. - Oil mills' unfulfilled contracts continued to decline, and the stocking demand weakened [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following U.S. soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [54]. - The inventory of live hogs increased slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [56]. - The price of live hogs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets rebounded slightly [58]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live hogs continued to rise [60]. - The profit of domestic pig - farming was slightly positive [62]. - The pig - to - grain ratio and the feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [64].