Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be stable with a slight increase in demand, but the support for prices is weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of secondary fattening, so it will mainly fluctuate. The futures market, especially the 2601 contract, is likely to be under dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 13th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 11,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,860 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total index positions decreased by 31 to 359,899 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. In October, the concentrated secondary fattening and holding back of pigs increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining the same. Currently, farmers are mainly selling pigs at a normal pace [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughter rate and volume have increased slightly. Mid - to - late - month pickling and enema may increase slightly. On November 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,900 heads, a decrease of 1,200 heads from the previous day, an increase of 2,300 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 3,600 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - fattening pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10]. 3. Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same year - on - year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - round fattening is weak. The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, may show a long - term weakening trend due to increased supply and concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: On November 11, the main 2601 futures contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 11,995 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,755 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous day. The total index positions increased by 16,981 lots to 368,545 lots. The national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October. The demand side shows that second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumption is rising but with insufficient incremental growth. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on November 11 was 162,400 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day, 4,400 heads week - on - week, and 6,600 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - There is no specific content about industry news in the report, only the titles of some related data charts are given. 3. Data Overview - As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [13]. - As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points, the same as the previous year [13]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [13]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [13]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [13]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: November 05, 2025 - Report Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - fattening is weak [8]. - The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, is likely to trend weakly with fluctuations due to the potential slight increase in supply before the Spring Festival, concentrated second - fattening in October, farmers' reluctance to sell, and continuous release of production capacity [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,685 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 5,066 lots to 362,390 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.97 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - fattening and weight - holding in October have increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November is 26.66 million heads, a 3.27% decrease from the actual sales volume in October, and the daily average is flat, with general enthusiasm for slaughter at the beginning of the month [8]. - **Demand Analysis**: After the spot price rebounded to a high level, second - fattening has turned to a wait - and - see attitude. With the cooling weather, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. Slaughterhouse orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume fluctuate slightly. Mid - to late - month bacon curing and sausage making may increase slightly. On November 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 158,000 heads, down 600 from the previous day, 4,600 week - on - week, and 12,300 month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points and the same as the previous year [16]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [16]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg [16]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September (a monthly decline of 0.23%) and an increase of 2.2 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.75%) [16]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [16].

Market Focus - As of October 29, the national live pig ex-farm price is 12.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.59% compared to October 22 [1] - The main wholesale corn price is 2.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88% compared to October 22 [1] - The pig-to-grain price ratio is 5.54, up 5.52% from October 22 [1] Industry Events - A hearing on anti-dumping cases related to pork and pork by-products was held by the Ministry of Commerce, attended by approximately 80 stakeholders including representatives from the EU and various countries [1] Profitability Analysis - As of the week ending October 31, self-breeding pig farming incurred a loss of 89.33 yuan per head, an improvement from a loss of 185.68 yuan per head the previous week [1] - The profitability for purchased piglets was a loss of 179.72 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 289.07 yuan per head the prior week [1] Market Trends - The live pig futures contract has reached a new low, with supply pressure suppressing the so-called peak season logic [3] - Previous rebounds were supported by secondary fattening, but the delayed pressure is expected to be released before the year-end, aligning with the anticipated oversupply [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Base difference**: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the pig industry dated October 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - At the end of the month, the supply pressure eases briefly, demand rebounds, and the entry of second - round fattening supports short - term price fluctuations. However, price rebounds restrict the sustainability of second - round fattening and terminal demand acceptance, and second - round fattening will delay supply. The expected supply pressure in the fourth quarter will still be realized, limiting the medium - term upside space. Technically, the pig 2601 contract declined slightly, down 0.49%, showing a fluctuating trend [2] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,185 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 119,788 lots, up 2,540 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,235 lots, up 671 lots [2] Spot Market - The pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), 12,700 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), and 12,900 yuan/ton (up 600 yuan) respectively; the main basis of live pigs is 415 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; the CPI's year - on - year change is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,242.75 yuan/ton, up 1.87 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 878.85, down 2.58; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2] Industry News - On October 29, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 146,210 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. At the supply end, the listing rhythm of large - scale farms slowed down at the end of the month, and the average weight of listed pigs decreased slightly, reducing the supply pressure. In terms of second - round fattening, there was concentrated entry for replenishment, supporting the stabilization of the spot market price, but the sustainability of entry needs to be observed. At the demand end, with the continuous drop in temperature, terminal demand increased, and some slaughtering enterprises actively stored goods, resulting in continuous marginal improvement in demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].