Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of live pigs has declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 2.06% this week. In the near term, supply pressure remains, suppressing pig prices. However, the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, the slaughterhouse's operating rate is rising, and the state's purchasing and storage measures boost market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term decline space is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs decreased, and the main contract 2511 dropped 2.06% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, due to the implementation of transportation policies on September 1 and possible supply reduction at the beginning of the month, the supply pressure is expected to ease briefly next week. But the supply pressure in the near - term remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle of sow inventory. The widening price difference between fat and standard pigs provides conditions for late - stage pig holding and secondary fattening. On the demand side, the pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchasing and storage" and "rotational purchasing and storage" to stabilize the market. With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous rise in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. Overall, the near - term supply pressure persists, but short - term price decline is limited, and the market will operate weakly in a volatile manner [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, and the net short position of the top 20 futures decreased. As of August 29, the net short position of the top 20 was 16,076 lots, a decrease of 853 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [10][12][16]. - **Spot Market** - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 13.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week and 3.84% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.55 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan from last week and 12.74% from the same period last month [27]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price in the week of August 21 was 24.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [37]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September live pig contract was 685 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 145 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Supply** - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 5.0986 million heads, a slight increase of 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; the sow inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 174,000 heads, a slight decrease of 0.17% month - on - month and an increase of 6.67% year - on - year [42]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the second quarter, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year, and according to Mysteel data, it increased month - on - month in July. In July, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.145 million heads, an increase of 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4882 million heads, an increase of 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [45]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: According to Mysteel data, in July, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.4362 million heads, a decrease of 3.08% month - on - month and an increase of 18.60% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480,600 heads, a decrease of 1.46% month - on - month and an increase of 57.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.38 kg, unchanged from last week [50]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 3.4 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 32.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.71 yuan/head from the previous month [56]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was a loss of 0.21 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.55 yuan/head [56]. - **Domestic Import**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imported pork was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [57][61]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 29, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from last week [65]. - **Feed Situation** - **Feed Price**: As of August 29, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,071.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,364.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.82 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 908.34, a 0.58% increase from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [70][74]. - **Feed Output**: As of July 2025, the monthly feed output was 2,827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons from the previous month [79]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [83]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 35th week, the slaughterhouse's operating rate was 29.27%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from last week. In the 34th week, the domestic cold storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [86]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a 1.1% year - on - year increase [91]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term outlook for soybeans and soybean meal is mainly in a range - bound pattern. For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020, and for soybean A2509, between 4160 and 4260. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean planting weather, Sino - US tariff negotiations, South American soybean harvest, and domestic import volume [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The short - term outlook for soybean meal is to return to a range - bound pattern, with factors like the reduction of protein content in feed formulas and high imports of soybeans in July. The short - term outlook for soybeans is affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the increase in imported soybeans [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the US soybean market may fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. Domestic imported soybean arrivals in July are high, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills continues to rise. The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and soybean meal may enter a short - term weak oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High domestic imported soybean arrivals in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2840, with a basis of - 195, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventory is 99.84 tons, a 12.66% increase from last week and a 20.8% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 76, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 642.24 tons, a 2.32% decrease from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have increased, but funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10]. Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Data from July 17 - 25 shows the prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 15 - 25 shows the changes in warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, yield, production, and inventory [40]. - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The monthly arrivals of imported soybeans from 2020 - 2025 are shown, with the peak arrival time postponed to June and an overall increase [43]. - **Oil Mill Data**: Soybean inventory in oil mills has slightly increased, and soybean meal inventory has continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stockpiling has increased. Soybean crushing volume in oil mills has decreased from a high level, and soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [44][46][48]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: Pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen after rising, and piglet prices remain weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. Domestic pig - farming profits have recently declined [51][53][55][57].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported a slight decrease in profits for pig farming, with average profit per head falling below 50 yuan [1] Price Trends - As of the third week of July 2025, the national pig market price was 14.96 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 0.53% compared to previous periods [1] - The national feed-to-pig price ratio was recorded at 5.50, which represents a week-on-week decline of 0.54% [1] Profitability Analysis - Based on current prices and costs, the average profit for pig farming under the current piglet fattening model is estimated to be 48.96 yuan per head [1]

Core Insights - The profitability of pig farming has slightly decreased, with average profit per head falling below 50 yuan [1] - Increased supply from active market participation by farmers contrasts with reduced demand due to high temperatures and school holidays [1] - The national average pig price has dropped to 14.96 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.53% from previous periods [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Farmers are more willing to sell, leading to an increase in supply [1] - Downstream demand is negatively impacted by seasonal factors, resulting in an oversupply situation [1] Price and Profitability Metrics - The national pig feed-to-pig price ratio is reported at 5.50, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.54% [1] - Current calculations indicate that the average profit for pig farming under the current pricing and cost structure is approximately 48.96 yuan per head [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.07.18 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Expected Range-bound Fluctuations in Pig Prices" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the main contract declining by 1.46% on a weekly basis. In the short term, increased supply and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations. However, as prices weaken, it may stimulate the sentiment of farmers to hold prices and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to show a volatile trend, and short - term prices will change with the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythms. The recommended strategy is range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased as the slaughter rhythm of farmers recovered in mid - month and the proportion of large pigs for slaughter accelerated due to high - temperature and rainy weather in the South. Demand was weak as high temperatures reduced people's willingness to buy pork, schools were on holiday, and the terminal sales were slow, leading to a continuous decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate, although it was higher than the same period last year. Overall, short - term supply increase and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations, but lower prices may stimulate farmers' price - holding sentiment and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 16,156 lots, a decrease of 721 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 284, a decrease of 3 from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 565 yuan/ton this week [21]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and the same period last month [28]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On July 10, the national average market price of pork was 25.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 9, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.27, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point [36]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.29% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month and 7.05% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In May, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 0.57% month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In June, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.7682 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year increase of 23.60%, while in small and medium - sized farms, it was 487,700 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% but a year - on - year increase of 57.41%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week [47]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 18.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 50.26 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 90.89 yuan/head, a decrease of 42.98 yuan/head from the previous week [52]. - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of egg - laying hens was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.22 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was a loss of 0.56 yuan/head [52]. 3.4.3 Import - In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level during the same period [57]. 3.4.4 Substitutes - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of July 17, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. 3.4.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of July 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2938.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [66]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 18, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.59, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - **Feed Output**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 175,600 tons [75]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of June 2025, the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.1% [79]. 3.4.7 Downstream - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 29th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 25.15%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week but 5.94 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.44%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The profit margin in pig farming has slightly increased, with an average profit of 62.02 yuan per head, despite weak terminal demand and slow growth rates due to high temperatures [1] Price Trends - As of the second week of July 2025, the national pig ex-farm price reached 15.04 yuan per kilogram, marking a 0.94% increase from previous periods and hitting a two-month high [1] - The national pig feed price ratio stands at 5.53, reflecting a 0.55% increase compared to the previous period [1] Profitability Insights - Current pricing and cost calculations indicate that the average profit per head in the pig farming model for fattening piglets is 62.02 yuan, which is the highest level in one month [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the pig market, covering price trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [1][4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Pig prices across China showed a downward trend this week due to improved supply after a previous price surge and weak price support [4] - Supply remains relatively tight as large - scale enterprises' output has not fully recovered, but it has improved compared to the previous period [4][9] - Demand is generally weak, with a decline in pig slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [4][10] - Futures prices are expected to have limited rebound space due to limited supply tightening [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, and futures prices will have limited upward potential [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound operation [5] - Arbitrage: LH91 positive spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Pig Price Situation - Pig prices across the country decreased this week. For example, in the Northeast, prices dropped by 0.35 - 0.5 yuan/kg to 14.38 - 14.5 yuan/kg [9] - Supply from large - scale enterprises has not fully recovered, but it has improved after a previous price rebound, leading to a slight price decline [9] Group 6: Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - Large - scale enterprises' output has not fully returned to normal, and the monthly output increase is limited [10] - Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has increased, but the output remains low, and secondary fattening output has decreased [10] - Pig slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still tight [10] Consumption Situation - Pig market demand is generally weak, with a decline in slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [10] Group 7: Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits continued to improve. As of the week of July 11, self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head [15] Group 8: Sow and Piglet Prices Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets rose to 439 yuan/head, up 8 yuan/head, and the price of 15 - kg piglets rose to 539 yuan/kg, up 12 yuan/head. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased [19] Sows - The sow price remained flat at 1621 yuan/head. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has increased, while the enthusiasm for replenishment is still low [19] Group 9: Reproductive Sow Inventory - In June, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Yongyi's comprehensive sample increased by 0.12% and large - scale enterprises by 0.22%, while Ganglian's data showed a 0.28% increase overall, with large - scale enterprises up 0.29% and small and medium - sized farmers up 0.17% [21]