Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆种植天气近期相对良好， 短期美盘冲高回落，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等待美豆种植和生长情况 以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 2.国内进口大豆到港量7月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存7月继续回升，农业 部会议推进饲料配方减少蛋白含量，豆粕冲高回落。 3.国内生猪养殖利润减少导致生猪补栏预期不高，豆粕需求五一后转淡 但供应偏紧支撑豆粕节后价格预期，加上中美关税战压力减弱豆粕短期进入 震荡偏弱格局。 4.国内油厂豆粕库存维持低位支撑短期价格预期，美国大豆产区 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.07.18 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Expected Range-bound Fluctuations in Pig Prices" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Industry: Pig Market 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the main contract declining by 1.46% on a weekly basis. In the short term, increased supply and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations. However, as prices weaken, it may stimulate the sentiment of farmers to hold prices and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to show a volatile trend, and short - term prices will change with the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythms. The recommended strategy is range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased as the slaughter rhythm of farmers recovered in mid - month and the proportion of large pigs for slaughter accelerated due to high - temperature and rainy weather in the South. Demand was weak as high temperatures reduced people's willingness to buy pork, schools were on holiday, and the terminal sales were slow, leading to a continuous decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate, although it was higher than the same period last year. Overall, short - term supply increase and weak demand will suppress price fluctuations, but lower prices may stimulate farmers' price - holding sentiment and attract secondary fattening, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down at the end of the month, limiting the downside space. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading or waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first declined and then rose, with the main contract down 1.46% weekly [11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 16,156 lots, a decrease of 721 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 284, a decrease of 3 from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the September contract was 65 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 565 yuan/ton this week [21]. - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week and the same period last month [28]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On July 10, the national average market price of pork was 25.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 9, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.27, an increase of 0.06 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point [36]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.29% month - on - month and 4.20% year - on - year, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month and 7.05% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In May, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and in small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 0.57% month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In June, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.7682 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year increase of 23.60%, while in small and medium - sized farms, it was 487,700 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% but a year - on - year increase of 57.41%. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg from the previous week [47]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 18.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 50.26 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 90.89 yuan/head, a decrease of 42.98 yuan/head from the previous week [52]. - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 18, the profit of egg - laying hens was a loss of 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.22 yuan/head from the previous week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was a loss of 0.56 yuan/head [52]. 3.4.3 Import - In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level during the same period [57]. 3.4.4 Substitutes - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. As of the week of July 17, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. 3.4.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of July 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2938.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.45 yuan/ton from the previous week [66]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 18, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.59, an increase of 0.7% from the previous week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - **Feed Output**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9377 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 175,600 tons [75]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of June 2025, the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.1% [79]. 3.4.7 Downstream - **Slaughterhouse Operating Rate and Cold Storage Capacity**: In the 29th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 25.15%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from the previous week but 5.94 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the cold storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.44%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of live pigs has declined. After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The supply pressure is still expected to exist in the future, and it is relatively difficult for the spot price to continue to strengthen [4][6]. - The live pig futures have shown an obvious decline, and the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased. The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average spot price of live pigs today is 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in various regions have generally declined, with the largest decline of 0.2 yuan/kg in Jiangxi [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: After the previous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter has increased, but the overall space for a sharp decline is limited. The previous slaughter completion was relatively good, and the recent slaughter pressure has decreased. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory [4]. - **Profit Situation**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head compared with yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 31.60 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head compared with yesterday [4]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: All LH contracts have declined. For example, LH01 is now 13700 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from yesterday; LH09 is 14010 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from yesterday [4]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of LH7 - 9 is - 120, an increase of 130 compared with yesterday; the spread of LH9 - 1 is 310, a decrease of 175 compared with yesterday [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The futures market is expected to be affected by the weakening of the spot price. The short - term market lacks obvious driving factors, and the inter - monthly spread is expected to be mainly volatile [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Mainly operate in a high - level shock [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [7]. - **Options**: Wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The profit margin in pig farming has slightly increased, with an average profit of 62.02 yuan per head, despite weak terminal demand and slow growth rates due to high temperatures [1] Price Trends - As of the second week of July 2025, the national pig ex-farm price reached 15.04 yuan per kilogram, marking a 0.94% increase from previous periods and hitting a two-month high [1] - The national pig feed price ratio stands at 5.53, reflecting a 0.55% increase compared to the previous period [1] Profitability Insights - Current pricing and cost calculations indicate that the average profit per head in the pig farming model for fattening piglets is 62.02 yuan, which is the highest level in one month [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the pig market, covering price trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [1][4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Pig prices across China showed a downward trend this week due to improved supply after a previous price surge and weak price support [4] - Supply remains relatively tight as large - scale enterprises' output has not fully recovered, but it has improved compared to the previous period [4][9] - Demand is generally weak, with a decline in pig slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [4][10] - Futures prices are expected to have limited rebound space due to limited supply tightening [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, and futures prices will have limited upward potential [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound operation [5] - Arbitrage: LH91 positive spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Pig Price Situation - Pig prices across the country decreased this week. For example, in the Northeast, prices dropped by 0.35 - 0.5 yuan/kg to 14.38 - 14.5 yuan/kg [9] - Supply from large - scale enterprises has not fully recovered, but it has improved after a previous price rebound, leading to a slight price decline [9] Group 6: Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - Large - scale enterprises' output has not fully returned to normal, and the monthly output increase is limited [10] - Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has increased, but the output remains low, and secondary fattening output has decreased [10] - Pig slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still tight [10] Consumption Situation - Pig market demand is generally weak, with a decline in slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [10] Group 7: Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits continued to improve. As of the week of July 11, self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head [15] Group 8: Sow and Piglet Prices Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets rose to 439 yuan/head, up 8 yuan/head, and the price of 15 - kg piglets rose to 539 yuan/kg, up 12 yuan/head. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased [19] Sows - The sow price remained flat at 1621 yuan/head. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has increased, while the enthusiasm for replenishment is still low [19] Group 9: Reproductive Sow Inventory - In June, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Yongyi's comprehensive sample increased by 0.12% and large - scale enterprises by 0.22%, while Ganglian's data showed a 0.28% increase overall, with large - scale enterprises up 0.29% and small and medium - sized farmers up 0.17% [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the spot price is likely to face difficulties in continuing to strengthen. The futures market is also affected by the weakening of the spot price and is expected to show a certain degree of decline. The price will be in a state where both upward and downward movements are restricted [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Information - Today's live pig spot prices generally declined. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling pigs has recovered, but the overall price decline is limited. The short - term supply situation has improved, and the price increase momentum is restricted. The secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist [2]. - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 439 and 1621 respectively. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87, an increase of 14.15 compared to the previous day, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60, an increase of 57.86 compared to the previous day [2]. - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 2020 to 132,507 heads. The price difference between different sizes of pigs also changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.03 to 0.07 [2]. Futures Information - Today's live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased, and the futures market has entered a high - level volatile state. The inter - month spread of the futures is expected to remain volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors in the short term [2][4]. - Among the futures contracts, LH01 was 13,725, an increase of 20; LH03 was 12,990, an increase of 10; LH05 was 13,160, a decrease of 15; LH07 was 14,000, an increase of 50; LH09 was 14,285, a decrease of 60; LH11 was 13,605, a decrease of 40 [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile state - For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread trade on the LH9 - 1 contract - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

Market Focus - As of the week ending June 27, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 50.25 CNY per head, up from 19.40 CNY per head the previous week. In contrast, the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 131.71 CNY per head, improved from a loss of 186.79 CNY per head the prior week [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the delivery quality standards for live pig futures, modifying the average and individual weight ranges for delivery standards. The average weight range has been changed from [100, 120] kg to [110, 130] kg, and the individual weight range from [90, 140] kg to [90, 150] kg. Additionally, the pricing adjustments for alternative delivery items have been specified [1] Daily Market Data - The national average price for live pigs as of July 1, 2025, varies by province, with prices ranging from 13.86 CNY/kg in Xinjiang to 16.73 CNY/kg in Guangdong. The prices reflect a slight increase compared to the previous day, with most regions showing a stable outlook for the near future [4] Industry Review - Currently, pricing power in the pig market is concentrated among leading enterprises. The recent increase in pig prices is attributed to major producers actively reducing supply, along with speculative capital providing some support. Despite awareness of oversupply, the industry sentiment has shifted, leading to increased willingness to hold back supply to maintain prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].