Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall spot market is stable, with an increase in both the number of second - fattened pigs being sold and the sales volume. The monthly growth rate of pig slaughter reaches its peak in October, and the weight is gradually decreasing but still has room to fall. The weight reduction of pigs in farming is not obvious, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the near - month contracts remain weak. It is recommended to continue holding the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Price and Basis - On August 18, 2025, the national average live pig price was 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Among different regions, prices in various provinces showed different changes, such as 13.68 yuan/kg in Henan, down 0.13 yuan/kg; 14.93 yuan/kg in Guangdong, down 0.7 yuan/kg [2]. - The basis between different regions and LH2509 also varied, with the basis in Henan being 40, up 55; in Guangdong being 690, down 185 [2]. Futures Contract Price - LH2509 was priced at 13,640 yuan, down 185; LH2511 was 13,820 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14,160 yuan, down 65. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 180, down 60; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 340, down 60 [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - According to Yongyi data, pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The average weight of slaughtered pigs this week was 127.82 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week (a month - on - month increase of 0.02%) and 1.65 kg more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.31%) [2]. Piglet Market - This week, the average selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from last week. As the piglets purchased now cannot be sold before the Spring Festival, farmers' enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has decreased, and the piglet price has started to decline, showing a weak trend in the short term [2].

年猪数据日 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 名則 - 杨璐琳 | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/08/08 | | | 地区 | 2025/08/07 | | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 13.86 | | -0.14 | 0 - 12 | -10 | -200 | | | 湖南 | 13.66 | | -0. 12 | 100 | -310-37 | -180 | | | 湖北 | 13.64 | | -0.15012 | 0 | -230 | +2-210 | | | 安徽 | 13.87 | | -0.21 | 300 | -300 | -270 | | | 江西 | 13.84 | | -0. 1 | 52 100 | -130 | -160 | | | 山西 | 13.61 | | -0. 1 | -400 | 140 | -160 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of pigs continued to decline by 0.1 yuan/kg today, mainly due to limited slaughter by the farming side and limited downstream acceptance. However, the slaughter weight has not changed significantly. From the perspective of slaughter volume, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month from June to July, mainly supported by the slowdown of winter piglet losses. The group factories stopped large-scale weight reduction this month, and the weight of散户 has been relatively stable. According to Yongyi data, the average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30%. In terms of replenishment, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets in June was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment. Recently, the spot price has declined. Today, the opening of the 09 contract showed a premium structure with the spot price in Sichuan, and the futures price has declined significantly recently. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price will lack upward momentum under the background of weak consumption and no effective decline in slaughter weight. In the medium term, the supply will return to a loose state after the inventory is repaired in August. Pay attention to the inflection point of the spot price after August [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Price Data in Different Regions - The pig prices in various regions across the country showed a downward trend on July 17, 2025. For example, the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Hunan, it was 13.99 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 15.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.37 yuan. The national average price was 13.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Futures Contract Data - The prices of LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 futures contracts all increased on July 17, 2025. The price of LH2509 was 14,060 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan; LH2511 was 13,535 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,750 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was 525 yuan on July 17, an increase of 5 yuan, and the spread between LH11 - 01 was -215 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Slaughter and Weight Data - From June to July, the pig slaughter volume decreased month-on-month. The average slaughter weight this week was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from last week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [2] Piglet Replenishment Data - In June, the average market sales price of 16 kg piglets was 556 yuan/head, a month-on-month decrease of 11.46% from May, and June is the off-season for replenishment [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Price**: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - **Sow Spot Price**: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - **Piglet Spot Price**: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - **Short - term Supply**: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - **Medium - term Supply**: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - **Long - term Supply**: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - **Demand**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - **Profit**: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力继续增加 价格逐步回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/4/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.82 | 14.96 | -0.14 | 山 西 | 14.70 | 14.83 | -0.13 | | 湖北（0） | 14.53 | 14.75 | -0.22 | 辽 宁 | 14.53 | 14.65 | -0.12 | | 安徽（300） | 14.98 | 15.08 | -0.10 | 吉 林 | 14.45 | 14.58 | -0.13 | | 湖南（100） | 14.60 | 14.61 ...