Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has resumed oil shipments at its Black Sea terminal [3]. - The Natural Resources Ministry and the Ministry of Electricity of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, along with Dana Gas of the UAE, are currently on-site to investigate a drone attack incident [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency has finalized a new rule, granting oil and gas operators an additional grace period of over a year to comply with the mandatory requirements of replacing leaky equipment and regularly monitoring methane leaks set by former President Biden. The Trump administration stated that the rule will affect hundreds of oil and gas sources across the country and is expected to save approximately $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a short-term greenhouse effect 80 times that of carbon dioxide. Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial methane emission source in the US, and the Biden-era regulations aimed to reduce methane emissions and the emissions of volatile organic compounds including the carcinogen benzene [3]. 3.2 Inventory - **API Inventory Data**: For the week ending November 21, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 4.448 million barrels; the API gasoline inventory increased by 0.539 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 1.546 million barrels; the API refined oil inventory increased by 0.753 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 0.577 million barrels [4]. - **EIA Report Data**: In the week of November 21, US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day; US domestic crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels to 13.814 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.774 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.65% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.05% decrease compared to the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.436 million barrels per day, an increase of 486,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - **Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventory**: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel in major refineries and social sectors decreased, while those in local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [5]. - **Fujairah Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The light distillate inventory decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6].