中国成品油周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | 辅 助 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 供应端，本周全国炼厂开工70.8%，环比上行0.2%，主营开工小幅回升，广州石化常减压检修回归；地炼开工小幅下跌，新增江苏新海石化焦化 装置检修。汽油主营及地炼产量均下行，柴油主营产量上行地炼回落。柴汽比上行0.02至1.48。需求端，市场情绪偏谨慎，汽油车单中下游采购 积极性不高；柴油船单车单受低价支撑而提升，产销率上行。汽柴均未达产销平衡。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油1074万吨，环比+28 万吨（+2.7%）；柴油1239万吨，环比+25万吨（+1.8%）。地炼库 ...

本文源自：卓创资讯 本周山东地炼理论综合利润反弹，炼油利润改善。截至12月3日周度山东地炼理论平均综合炼油利润为 201元/吨，与上周相比反弹62.3元/吨。原料成本方面，原料均值环比下降74元/吨。产品收入方面汽油 批发价格逢低反弹，汽油周均价较上周上涨49元/吨，柴油周均价较上周下跌38.2元/吨，其他产品收入 涨跌互现。后期山东地炼综合收入或将上涨，但是原料成本反弹承压，山东地炼理论平均综合炼油利润 或继续小幅反弹。 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has resumed oil shipments at its Black Sea terminal [3]. - The Natural Resources Ministry and the Ministry of Electricity of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, along with Dana Gas of the UAE, are currently on-site to investigate a drone attack incident [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency has finalized a new rule, granting oil and gas operators an additional grace period of over a year to comply with the mandatory requirements of replacing leaky equipment and regularly monitoring methane leaks set by former President Biden. The Trump administration stated that the rule will affect hundreds of oil and gas sources across the country and is expected to save approximately $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, with a short-term greenhouse effect 80 times that of carbon dioxide. Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial methane emission source in the US, and the Biden-era regulations aimed to reduce methane emissions and the emissions of volatile organic compounds including the carcinogen benzene [3]. 3.2 Inventory - **API Inventory Data**: For the week ending November 21, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 4.448 million barrels; the API gasoline inventory increased by 0.539 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 1.546 million barrels; the API refined oil inventory increased by 0.753 million barrels, compared with a previous value of an increase of 0.577 million barrels [4]. - **EIA Report Data**: In the week of November 21, US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day; US domestic crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels to 13.814 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.774 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.65% increase; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.05% decrease compared to the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.436 million barrels per day, an increase of 486,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - **Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Inventory**: From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.2331 million tons, a 1.75% decrease, and diesel inventory was 12.2708 million tons, a 4.25% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel in major refineries and social sectors decreased, while those in local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated [5]. - **Fujairah Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending November 24, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 197,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The light distillate inventory decreased by 934,000 barrels to 6.291 million barrels, the medium distillate inventory increased by 205,000 barrels to 3.393 million barrels, and the heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 926,000 barrels to 11.165 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices closed lower. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations made significant progress, and Zelensky and Trump will discuss the peace plan next week, with Russia being open to it, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US. The risk premium of gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly retreated, and the monthly spread of crude oil has declined, showing a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching a new high since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US drilling rigs and fracturing operations has increased, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have risen. Recently, there is still room for downward correction in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With supply exceeding demand, the strategy of shorting crude oil from a high level is maintained. The Brent price is expected to be between $55 and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US draft of the Russia-Ukraine conflict solution [6].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is under pressure with a significant decline in crude oil prices in October, leading to lower retail prices and weak demand for gasoline and diesel, particularly in Shandong province [1][2][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - In October, the average WTI price decreased by 5.45% and Brent by 5.37%, reflecting a downward trend in international oil prices [2]. - The oil market experienced a decline in early October due to oversupply and macroeconomic risks, but prices rebounded later in the month due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - The retail price of refined oil in Shandong saw two reductions in October, negatively impacting gasoline and diesel prices [4]. - The average gasoline ex-factory price in Shandong fell by 510 CNY/ton (3.94% decrease), while diesel prices dropped by 185 CNY/ton (2.62% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Price Differentials - The average gasoline crack spread in Shandong was 867.91 CNY/ton, down 4.52% month-on-month, while the diesel crack spread increased by 9.39% to 787.87 CNY/ton [4]. - The average theoretical wholesale-retail price differential for gasoline rose by 8.35% to 2051.06 CNY/ton, and for diesel, it increased by 4.12% to 1434.78 CNY/ton [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to November, crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply from Saudi Arabia, which may lead to a decline in refined oil prices [7]. - Gasoline demand is anticipated to remain weak without holiday support, while diesel demand may see slight improvement due to construction activities and e-commerce logistics [7].

Core Insights - In October, domestic refining profits in China increased nearly twofold year-on-year, driven by lower international oil prices and reduced raw material costs [1][3] - Despite a decline in refining product prices and revenues, the cost reductions were more significant, leading to improved refining margins [4][5] Group 1: Refining Profitability - Domestic refining profit in October was 248 CNY/ton, an increase of 81 CNY/ton or 48.5% month-on-month, and a rise of 235 CNY/ton or 1.74 times year-on-year [1] - The overall refining profit is expected to continue to see slight month-on-month increases in November due to slower transmission of cost declines [4][5] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Dynamics - The comprehensive refining cost in October was 4925 CNY/ton, down 4.74% month-on-month and 6.18% year-on-year [3] - Average revenue from refining products in October was 5173 CNY/ton, which decreased by 3.07% month-on-month and 1.71% year-on-year [4] - The average price of gasoline fell by 3.94% month-on-month, while diesel prices decreased by 2.67% month-on-month [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - In November, gasoline demand is expected to remain weak due to strong competition from electric vehicles, while diesel demand may hold steady due to construction activities and logistics needs [5] - Overall, refining product revenues are anticipated to decline in November, but the decrease may be less than that of costs, potentially allowing for continued slight increases in refining profits [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices stabilized at the end of the week, with the market closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical developments [1] - The U.S. military has significantly increased its presence in the Caribbean, including the redeployment of the USS Ford carrier group near Venezuela, amid reports of imminent military action against Venezuelan military facilities [1] - Venezuela's current oil export volume is approximately 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to discuss a third consecutive month of production increases, with a proposed increase of 137,000 barrels per day, aligning with market expectations [3] - The oil market is facing potential oversupply in the coming months, influenced by complex political factors and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers [3] - Brent crude prices have fallen over 13% this year due to increased supply outpacing demand growth [3] Group 3 - Despite the oversupply in the crude oil market, the refined oil market is performing strongly, particularly following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [4] - Diesel prices have reached their highest premium over crude oil since early 2024, boosting refining profits and potentially stimulating crude oil demand [4]

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies (TTE.US) anticipates a slight increase in third-quarter profit and cash flow despite a decline in oil prices, driven by increased oil and gas production and improved refining margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a 4% year-over-year increase in oil and gas production, reaching 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day [1] - Performance and cash flow from exploration and production are projected to grow over 4% compared to the second quarter [1] - Downstream business performance and cash flow are expected to improve by $400 million to $600 million year-over-year due to expanded refining margins in Europe [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the positive trading update, TotalEnergies' stock price rose by as much as 2.6% during intraday trading [1] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The cash flow from liquefied natural gas and power businesses is expected to remain stable compared to the previous three months [1] - The company anticipates a reduction in the debt-to-equity ratio by 0.5% to 1% due to a positive contribution from expected operating capital of $1.2 billion to $2 billion [1]

Core Insights - The traditional peak season for the refining industry in September did not materialize as expected, leading to a significant decline in profits due to dual pressures from costs and revenues [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Profit Decline - In September, the average refining profit for domestic refineries was 167 yuan/ton, a substantial decrease of 174 yuan/ton, representing a drop of 50.99% month-on-month and 10.65% year-on-year [1][2] - The average revenue from refined products was 5,337 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69% [1][2] - The comprehensive refining cost increased to 5,170 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton, marking a rise of 1.61% [1][2] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The weak revenue was attributed to an exacerbated supply-demand imbalance, with many refined products experiencing oversupply and weak demand [3] - Key factors included weak demand for solvent oil and asphalt, uncertainty in international oil prices affecting market confidence, and adverse weather conditions in southern regions [3] Regional Insights - In Shandong, independent refineries saw a significant drop in profits, with the processing profit for imported crude oil falling to 132.83 yuan/ton, down 182.75 yuan/ton, a decline of 57.91% [3] - Despite an increase in operating rates among Shandong refineries, the release of production capacity did not translate into higher profits [3] October Outlook - Analysts expect a slight increase in refining profits in October due to anticipated relief on the cost side and seasonal demand support [6] - The international oil price is expected to face downward pressure, which could lower procurement costs for domestic refineries [6] - Diesel demand is projected to remain strong due to logistics and agricultural needs, while gasoline consumption may face seasonal declines after the holidays [6][7] - There are concerns about potential raw material shortages for Shandong refineries due to rapid usage of import quotas and maintenance schedules [7]