风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: 全球陆上原油库存 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千辆 38000000 3700000 3600000 3500000 34000000 3300000 哥期货有限公司 关注俄罗斯累库持续性 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 Futures Company Limited 2025-11-24 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 11月23日当周，全球原油陆上库存及浮仓库存均小幅攀升，全口径（含在途）库存延续高位回落，同比看库存压力仍大。分区域看，中国库存 小幅回落，俄罗斯、印度、中东、欧洲库存回升,其中俄罗斯库存跳升明显,关注其出口降量背景下后续累库的持续性。 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原 千圈 4050000 4000000 3900000 38000000 3700000 36000000 3500000 3400000 图表 2:全球原把浮仓 - 2022 - 2021 千桶 250000 2000000 150000 1000000 资料来源:Kpl ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].

每经AI快讯，美国上周API原油库存增加130万桶，前值增加652.1万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to trade in a narrow range, waiting for more information. Russian oil supply may decline due to sanctions and harassment, while the US government's potential reopening may boost the financial market and stabilize oil prices. Currently, the market is in a stalemate, with medium - to long - term downward pressure and short - term waiting for geopolitical developments. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while medium - to long - term supply may increase. The market is affected by factors such as optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and potential OPEC+ production adjustments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The long - lasting US government shutdown may end this week, and a compromise bill has cleared initial hurdles in the Senate. Russia's Tuapse refinery in the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports after a drone attack, and US sanctions on Lukoil are approaching [3]. - **Basis**: On November 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.64 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.95 per barrel, with a basis of 33.29 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected increase of 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market to replace Russian oil. HPCL bought 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, and MRPL bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude [5]. - US President Trump said he would lower tariffs on Indian goods and that the US was "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India [5]. - A temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown is expected to pass in the Senate on Monday evening, but it also needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president [5]. - Fed officials are divided on further interest rate cuts. Some are skeptical, while others are open to it, and one called for a 50 - basis - point cut in December [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ may suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude settled at $64.06 (up $0.43, 0.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.29, 0.48%), SC at 460.2 (up 3.30, 0.72%), and Oman at $64.99 (up $0.36, 0.56%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.60 (down $1.07, - 1.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.38, 0.64%), Oman at $65.64 (up $0.27, 0.41%), Shengli at $60.87 (down $0.06, - 0.10%), and Dubai at $65.62 (up $0.62, 0.95%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the same period [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of October 28, the net long position was 171,567, an increase of 119,046 [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report In the week of November 9, both global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories jumped, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory continued to rise to a new high for the year. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remains high. Regionally, China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East all increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: In the week of November 9, global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories increased, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory reached a new high for the year, with high year - on - year inventory pressure [1]. - **Regional Inventory Changes**: China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East increased [1].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is expected to result in the seventh price increase of the year, leading to a slight increase in consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The new price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 10, with analysts predicting an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by approximately 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - As of November 6, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 3.12%, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the upcoming adjustment [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, there have been 21 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 745 yuan per ton for gasoline and 715 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current oil prices are in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of potential weakening. The market is expected to face oversupply pressure in the near term [4]. - Supply-side factors include OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, while the overall atmosphere of increased production is expected to persist until the end of December this year [4]. - On the demand side, the seasonal decrease in crude oil demand due to ongoing maintenance at U.S. refineries and a notable increase in U.S. crude oil inventories contribute to a sluggish global demand recovery [4][5].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased significantly, but refined oil inventories declined, with a neutral impact. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year, which provides some support to the supply side but cannot change the oversupply situation. The market is supported by macro and geopolitical factors, leading to a rebound in oil prices. After the positive factors are digested, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $59.64 per barrel, down 1.52%; Brent closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 1.38%; SC closed at 460.4 yuan per barrel, down 0.37%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 26.38 million lots, 33.45 million lots, and 9.28 million lots respectively [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Maintain a bearish strategy, short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage [7] 2. Industry News - India's Reliance Industries, usually a major oil importer, is seeking to sell some Middle - Eastern oil cargoes. After U.S. sanctions on Russia, it bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East last month [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in October decreased by 10% month - on - month to 1.69 million barrels per day [8] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels last week due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, higher than market expectations [8] - Commodity trader Mercuria said that an oversupply is slowly forming and may impact the market in the next few months [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI and Oman spot prices, global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [11][12][15][22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Gold Market - Gold experienced a slight rebound overnight, but overall operational space remains limited due to a volatile trading environment [2] - The Federal Reserve shows significant division regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell warning that further cuts cannot be guaranteed due to government shutdowns affecting economic reports [2] - Fed member Milan believes there is room for rate cuts this year, citing low inflation levels [2] - Analyst Pengcheng from Bailihau suggests that rapid rate cuts could lead to rising inflation, and the impact of government shutdowns may increase the likelihood of stagflation [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, but upward momentum is weak, with short-term moving averages exerting pressure [2] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline overnight, with short-term downward trends not yet complete, and new lows may still be on the horizon [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose significantly by 5.202 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations of 0.603 million barrels, indicating weak consumption [4] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 0.4729 million barrels, but with the end of the travel season, future consumption may decline [4] - Global oil inventories are also rising, with the UAE's Fujairah port showing an increase of 0.0851 million barrels [4] - The IEA's latest report indicates a supply surplus in the global oil market, with rising inventories expected [4] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a series of small bearish candles, with clear resistance above [4] Copper Market - Copper's daily chart shows a small bullish candle, with significant support from long-term moving averages [6] - The four-hour chart indicates that downward momentum has not weakened, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating some resistance from buyers but not full control [7] - The four-hour chart suggests that an upward structure has completed, potentially forming a downward ABC pattern [7]