Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

每经AI快讯，10月1日，美国至9月26日当周API原油库存减少367.4万桶，前值减少382.1万桶。 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]

原油周报：风险偏好回落，供需压力逐渐兑现 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 上周初，市场计价美联储降息带来的利好，叠加欧美持续施压制裁俄油贸易、俄乌局势持续紧张，油价表现强势，周内 Brent主力合约突破68美金/桶。周四美联储降息25BP，未超出市场预期，美元指数触底反弹，宏观风险偏好回落，而 地缘端无更多利好，油价大幅回调。临近周末，Brent主力跌至66美金/桶附近。 供需方面，8、9月份欧佩克持续增产，中东地区原油需求旺季结束， Dubai月差走弱、原油发运量高位 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, released on September 22, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - It provides price data from September 15 - 19, 2025, for various oil - related products and analyzes daily news, regional fundamentals, and presents a weekly view [3][5][6] Group 2: Price Data Changes Crude Oil and Related Products - WTI decreased by $0.89 from September 15 - 19, 2025; BRENT decreased by $0.76; DUBAI decreased by $0.35 [3] - SC decreased by 4.80; OMAN decreased by 1.30 [3] Refined Oil and Other Products - Domestic gasoline decreased by $50.00; domestic diesel decreased by $28.00 [3] - Japan naphtha CFR dropped by 2.95; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by 0.2 [3] Group 3: Daily News - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany [4] - Russia called the EU's reduction of Russian energy imports a "self - harm" behavior [4] - Cuba condemned the US for trying to seize Venezuela's resources through its actions in the Caribbean [5] - The UN Security Council vetoed the resolution to extend Iran's sanctions exemption, and sanctions may resume if no agreement is reached by September 27 [5] Group 4: Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 253.2 thousand barrels per day, while domestic production decreased by 1.3 thousand barrels [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels, a 2.19% decline [6] - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 504 thousand barrels, a 0.12% increase [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.69% year - on - year [6] - From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated, Shandong local refinery operating rate increased, domestic production of gasoline and diesel rose, and their inventories also increased [6] Group 5: Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at a high level, with fundamental and geopolitical factors diverging [6] - The EU's sanctions on Russia target shadow fleets, Russian banks, and oil buyers; Russian refined oil exports decreased by about 300 thousand barrels per day, while crude oil net exports increased by about 9% year - on - year [6] - Iranian crude oil exports did not decline; OPEC crude oil net exports increased by 11% year - on - year in September [6] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased significantly [6] - Global refinery profits were divided, with US refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operating rates rising, and European and American refinery operating rates falling [6] - In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 200 thousand barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 180 - 250 thousand barrels per day in 2026 [6] - It is expected that the absolute price center in Q4 will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [6]

Oil Market Overview - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, respectively, with an increase of $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1][2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1][2] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, reflecting a decrease of 10 thousand barrels per day [1][2] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 418, which is an increase of 2 rigs from the previous week [1][2] - The number of active fracturing fleets in the U.S. is 169, with an increase of 5 fleets [1][2] Refined Oil Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are at 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, respectively, with week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [3] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 9.41 million, 4.96 million, and 1.90 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [3] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the U.S. is 8.81 million, 3.62 million, and 1.62 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [3] Trade Dynamics - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 1.6 million, 0.97 million, and 0.81 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +0.07, -0.02, and -0.09 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.10 million, 0.85 million, and 0.76 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.12, -0.54, and -0.42 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 0.05 million, 0.24 million, and 0.18 million barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -0.07, +0.05, and +0.12 million barrels per day [4] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests testing support levels for crude oil and holding various long - positions in light positions [1] - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ phasing out "second - round production cuts" and expected growth in global crude oil inventories. The daily average increase in global crude oil inventories is predicted to be 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Brent (Dated): Price data not provided. North Sea supply recovery expectations suppress prices, while geopolitical risks provide bottom - line support [2] - WTI (Cushing): Price is $64.08, with a daily change of $0.3. The end of the US refinery autumn maintenance season and rising demand drive up inland oil prices [2] - Dubai: Price is $81.21, with a daily change of $0.34. Stable Asian refinery procurement demand and lower official Middle - East selling prices stimulate buying interest [2] - Oman: Price is $81.55, with a daily change of $0.45. Driven by the strengthening of the Dubai benchmark, the spot discount of Omani crude oil narrows [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front): Spread is $4.18, with a daily change of - $0.07. Increased US exports narrow the trans - Atlantic spread and the arbitrage window closes [2] - Brent EFP (Nov): Spread is - $0.01, with a daily change of - $0.05. The deepening contango structure in the futures market reflects the expectation of abundant short - term supply [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct): Spread is $0.1, with a daily change of $0.03. Tight Omani crude oil supply leads to an expanded premium relative to Dubai [2] Refining Profits - Gasoline裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $8.93. Seasonal decline in Asian gasoline demand puts pressure on refinery profit margins [4] - Diesel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $18.91. Robust industrial demand and low inventories support strong diesel cracking [4] - Jet fuel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $17.86. The continuous recovery of the aviation industry, but the commissioning of new refining capacity increases supply pressure [4] Key Middle - East Crude - Umm Lulu: Price is $69.9, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.16 to Dubai. Weak demand for heavy crude oil and refineries' preference for light, low - sulfur crude oil lead to an expanded discount [4] - Das Blend: Price is $69.35, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $2.61 to Dubai. Reduced purchases by Asian buyers increase the pressure of oversupply in the spot market [4] - Murban: Price is $69.85, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.11 to Dubai. The light - crude characteristics are favored by Asian refineries, but the overall market downturn drags down the price [4] Key Market News - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members [5] - Israeli MPs' visit to Taiwan was strongly condemned by the Chinese embassy [5] - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil [5] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany in pushing for the resumption of sanctions against Iran [5] - The EU is considering trade measures against the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline [6] - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude prices will decline from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ actions and expected inventory growth [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]