Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental improvement of methanol is limited, and the rebound space may be relatively limited [1][7][30] - It is recommended to wait and see temporarily due to the lack of substantial improvement in methanol supply and demand [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures rebounded following the strong port methanol prices. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,145 yuan/ton, a 2.68% increase from the previous week [5][10] - Port methanol prices were strong due to slow unloading, inventory reduction, and reduced Iranian loading speed, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2,070 - 2,190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,050 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak due to seasonal freight increases and high downstream raw material inventories. The price range in Ordos North Line was 1,950 - 1,973 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2,225 - 2,230 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week (2025.12.12 - 12.18), China's methanol production was 2,055,975 tons, an increase of 18,370 tons from the previous week, with a device capacity utilization rate of 90.52%, a 0.90% increase [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: MTO industry's weekly average start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate was 7.09%, a 21.05% decrease; acetic acid's overall capacity utilization rate increased; methane chloride's capacity utilization rate increased; formaldehyde's capacity utilization rate decreased [15][16] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.04 million tons, a 6.25% increase. The port sample inventory decreased to 1.2188 billion tons, a 1.26% decrease [18][21] - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices continued to decline, while coke oven gas and natural gas prices were stable. Coal - to - methanol profits improved, coke oven gas - to - methanol profits weakened, and natural gas - to - methanol profits were stable. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase [24] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an expected production of about 2.0667 billion tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 91.00%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The overall start - up of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly; the supply of dimethyl ether is expected to be stable; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the overall capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to decline slightly [28][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 39.53 million tons, showing a slight increase. The port methanol is expected to accumulate inventory [29]