2025 年 11 月 27 日 甲醇：短期反弹格局延续 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,094 | 2,067 | 2 7 335906 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,089 | 2,070 | 1 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 1,611,623 | 1,275,717 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 1,154,690 | 1,200,373 | -45683 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 3,800 | 2,400 | 1400 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 3,366,024 | 2,6 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：驱动向下，但下方空间收窄 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：驱动向下，但下方空间收窄 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251114-1120)中国甲醇产量为2014185吨，较上周增加41210吨，装置产能利用率为88.77%，环比涨2.09%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量202.66万吨左右，产能利用率89.31%左右， | | | | 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃：下周烯烃企业暂无计划内调整预期，预计 ...

甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 联系邮箱：zhangbo2022@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol remained weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. The supply of methanol is still relatively abundant, and the demand such as MTO is expected to be weak. The spot market of methanol may be mainly weak. In the short term, it is still difficult to substantially improve the supply and demand of methanol, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol, and the methanol price may still fluctuate [6][9][10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol were still weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. In the spot market, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations, the提货 volume decreased significantly, the port methanol inventory increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was weak, suppressing the market price. The price of methanol in the mainland had no strong positive support, and the downstream procurement was negative under the pressure of high inventory. After the news of external procurement of olefins in the production area spread, the market first declined and then rose, but the procurement situation was not ideal [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the domestic methanol production continued to decline. The number of methanol plant overhauls was more than that of restarts, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The production was 1,943,465 tons, a decrease of 39,690 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% month-on-month [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of methanol showed a downward trend. The overall start - up of the olefin industry decreased, the capacity utilization rate of DME decreased, the capacity utilization rate of chlorides decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased. Only the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly [18][19]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 22, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises increased to 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the order backlog decreased to 215,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79% [21]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 22, China's methanol port sample inventory increased to 1,512,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations. The inventory in East China increased, the inventory in Zhejiang decreased, the inventory in South China showed destocking, and the inventory in Fujian increased slightly [24]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of China's methanol samples was poor. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol shrank, and the gas - based methanol remained in a loss state [26]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of restarts of domestic methanol plants may be more than that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9892 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.66%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The start - up of olefin enterprises will continue to decrease passively. The capacity utilization rate of DME is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to decrease slightly. The capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to remain at last week's level. The capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [32][34]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises will be 341,300 tons, a slight destocking compared with last week. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - **Overall**: The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol. In the short term, methanol is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and its medium - term price center will decline. It is under fundamental pressure but has a neutral - to - low valuation. With many important macro events recently, the short - term price will oscillate, while the high supply and port inventory pressure will suppress the upside [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral price center will move down; for the 01 contract, the upper pressure is at 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the lower support is at 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is high, and the spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: China's methanol production decreased this week (20251017 - 1023) to 1,943,465 tons, a decrease of 39,690 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a 2.00% decline. Next period, the overall supply may increase as planned maintenance and production - cut devices decrease while recovery devices increase. Olefin enterprises'开工 continued to decrease due to cost pressure and downstream price drops. For traditional downstream industries, the capacity utilization of dimethyl ether may increase, that of glacial acetic acid may decline slightly, formaldehyde will likely maintain the current level, and the change in chloride capacity utilization will be small [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 22, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 360,400 tons, a 0.13% increase from the previous period, and the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 215,700 tons, a 5.79% decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous data. The East China region accumulated inventory (an increase of 30,000 tons), while the South China region reduced inventory (a decrease of 9,200 tons) [4]. 2. Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16]. 3. Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, there were many new methanol plants in China. In 2024, the total new capacity expansion was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it was 8.3 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it was expected to be 3.3 million tons [23]. - **Maintenance**: There are many domestic methanol device maintenance cases, with a total affected capacity of 6.9 million tons, and the actual total loss was 1,716,220 tons [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Charts display the trends of methanol production and capacity utilization in China and different regions, as well as production by different processes from 2018 - 2025 [27][29]. - **Import - related**: Charts show the trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [37]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts present the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [42][47]. 4. Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Charts show the capacity utilization trends of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and other downstream industries in China from 2020 - 2025 [52]. - **Downstream Profits**: Charts display the profit trends of methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, and other downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [59][63]. - **Procurement Volume**: Charts show the procurement volume trends of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [67][72]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of methanol raw materials in traditional downstream industries in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [77]. 5. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the trends of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [82]. - **Port Inventory**: Charts display the trends of methanol port inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the methanol market maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Although the port inventory reached a new high and the structure weakened, the decline was small due to market expectations of supply - demand improvement in the peak season. After the National Day, the port inventory further increased, and combined with the decline of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, the market broke through the support level and declined. Currently, the real - world port situation remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply is under pressure with high domestic production and increasing imports, while the demand has weakened. However, the cost - performance of short - selling is not high, and the subsequent fundamentals may improve marginally, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In September, the domestic methanol production was 809 million tons, a month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase. With the return of previously shut - down devices, the domestic operating rate has returned to a high level. The traditional demand in the peak season in September improved slightly, but the overall profit is poor, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The cost - end support is not obvious, the basis is stable at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has reached a new low. The methanol valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 1.54 million tons, a year - on - year high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively healthy at 339,000 tons, a year - on - year low [11]. - **Market Logic**: The energy - chemical sector declined weakly, and the supply - demand situation of methanol itself remained weak, with the inland market weaker than the port market, leading to the market's downward breakthrough [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In September, the prices of some methanol contracts and spot markets changed. For example, the 09 contract increased by 125 yuan/ton, the 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Among the domestic spot markets, the prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased, while those in Hebei and Shanxi decreased [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market showed an increase in open interest and a decline in price [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of raw materials such as IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and动力煤 (thermal coal) fluctuated [33][35][37]. - **Production Profit**: The coal - to - methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia and other places showed a downward trend from a high level, and the MTO profit also decreased [11]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory is at a historical high, while the factory inventory is at a year - on - year low [44][46]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New methanol production capacities are being put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity from several enterprises in the northwest region expected to be gradually put into production from 2025 [55]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly production have returned to high levels, and the overseas methanol operating rate also shows certain trends [57][58][60]. - **Imports**: The import volume and arrival volume have increased, and the import volume from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia shows different trends [64][67][69]. - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, including international price spreads and domestic regional price spreads, which reflect the market's supply - demand relationship and cost differences [76][79]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: The consumption and end - of - period inventory of methanol show certain trends over time [86]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate and the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached high levels, but the profit of MTO has declined. The production profits of different PP production processes also show different trends [88][90][97]. - **Downstream Products**: The operating rates and profits of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde, and MTBE show different trends [109][112][114]. 3.6 Option - related - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: The option trading volume and open interest of methanol show certain characteristics, and the PCR of option open interest and trading volume also has corresponding values [121]. - **Option Volatility**: The historical volatility and implied volatility of methanol options show certain trends [123]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - **Industrial Chain Diagram**: The methanol industrial chain and research framework analysis mind - map are presented, showing the overall structure and analysis framework of the methanol industry [126][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak in the short - term. Despite the implementation of positive factors such as the shutdown of Rongxin Phase I methanol plant in the inland and the startup of Xingxing MTO plant at the port, the price remains weak due to high inventory. [3][85] - There is an expectation of improvement in methanol fundamentals on a month - on - month basis, but the supply pressure is still large. Whether the inventory can be effectively reduced after the startup of downstream MTO plants is a key point. [3][85] - In the long run, it may still be necessary to wait for a buying opportunity. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions, and wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [3][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. The basis quote on Friday was around 01 - 95 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for mid - October paper goods was 01 - 60 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Methanol Basis**: The basis quotes of methanol oscillated this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late October was around 01 - 60 yuan/ton. The inland basis of methanol oscillated, and the prices in the inland and northwest markets oscillated this week. [8][16][32] - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol weakened in an oscillatory manner. [41] - **Near - far Month Spread**: It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the spread. [49] - **PP - 3MA Spread**: The PP - 3MA spread rebounded in an oscillatory manner this week. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA in the later stage. [57] 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - **Methanol Production**: Many new methanol plants were under maintenance, and the methanol operating rate declined slightly. However, many maintenance plants resumed production, and methanol production began to increase. [62][65] - **Methanol Downstream**: The operating rate of dimethyl ether oscillated, the operating rate of formaldehyde rebounded in an oscillatory manner, and the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest oscillated at a high level. [72] - **MTO**: The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants oscillated this week, and MTO profits continued to recover. [75] 3.4 Market Expectation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Adopt a weak - oscillation mindset, close previous short positions. Wait for lower prices or clear driving factors for long positions. [4][86] - **Hedging Strategy**: Wait and see. [5][87]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in methanol fundamentals, methanol futures oscillated narrowly. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2430 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous week. The average price of the port methanol market declined, while the inland market rose [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a week - on - week drop of 3.55%. The number of newly - overhauled devices exceeded those that resumed production [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand was stable. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed mixed trends. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. The port sample inventory was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period [20][24]. - **Profit**: Most methanol enterprises' profits declined last week, with only the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol showing a slight increase [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol devices resuming production is expected to exceed those under overhaul. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.8873 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 83.47%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand is expected to remain stable overall. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products are expected to change slightly. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate is expected to decline, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to increase [32][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 292,300 tons, remaining at a low level. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, methanol prices rose and then fell. Affected by China's anti - involution policy, prices increased significantly in the short term, and option volatility also soared. After the sentiment of related commodities reached its peak, prices began to decline, and methanol returned to its weak fundamental situation, with prices dropping back to the pre - start level. Overall, the upside potential of prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation [12]. - The supply side shows that domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have gradually recovered to a high level, and subsequent imports will gradually increase. Port olefin devices have stopped, and the load has declined from a high level [12]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of traditional demand has decreased during the off - season, and the overall profit level is at a low level [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline significantly due to improved expectations and weakening reality. Coal prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits remain at a relatively high level. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved, but the absolute level is still not high. The price ratio of methanol to related varieties is at a medium - high level, and the valuation of methanol is still on the high side [12]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory continued to rise in July due to increased imports and stopped port devices. Inland inventory has been maintained at a year - on - year low level due to maintenance and olefin procurement [12]. - The market logic is that as the sentiment of the overall commodity market cools down, methanol returns to its own fundamentals. The weak downstream demand combined with the relatively high valuation of methanol itself puts downward pressure on prices. Domestic production is likely to increase marginally in the future, and port inventory is accumulating faster due to increased import unloading speed and stopped port MTO devices. Inland areas are under less pressure due to olefin procurement. Currently, the valuation of methanol is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are under pressure. Unilateral prices are greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and methanol can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector. The strategy is to pay attention to short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, methanol prices first rose and then fell. Affected by policies, prices increased sharply in the short term, and option volatility also increased. After the peak of commodity sentiment, prices returned to the weak fundamental level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have recovered to a high level, and imports will increase [12]. - **Demand**: Traditional demand operating rates are low during the off - season, and overall profits are low [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The 9 - 1 spread has declined significantly. Coal prices have rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits are high. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved but are still not high. Methanol valuation is relatively high [12]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has increased, while inland inventory is at a low level [12]. - **Market Logic**: As commodity sentiment cools, methanol returns to its fundamentals. Weak demand and high valuation put pressure on prices. Future supply is likely to increase, and port inventory is accumulating faster [12]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The reality is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There has been a decline in volume and open interest, accompanied by price drops [24]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a year - on - year high [36]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to increased arrivals and stopped downstream port devices, port inventory is accumulating faster [39]. - **Regional Inventory**: Inland inventory is at a year - on - year low level due to olefin procurement [42]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: Newly added capacity in 2025 is 7.45 million tons, mainly in the northwest region [50]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Domestic production and operating rates have shown certain trends, and overseas operating rates have recovered to a high level [52][54]. - **Imports**: Import volume and its sources are presented, and the arrival volume has increased [59][70]. - **International Price Difference**: The import profit and price differences between China and other regions are analyzed [74]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Port prices have weakened, while inland prices are relatively strong [77]. - **Domestic Freight**: The freight rates of methanol transportation are shown [84]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Consumption and inventory data are presented [88]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have rebounded [91]. - **PP Production Profits**: The production profits of different PP production processes are analyzed [94]. - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Various spreads related to MTO are presented [97]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Downstream raw material inventory is at a high level [111]. - **Related Variety Price Ratio**: The valuation of methanol is relatively high compared to related varieties [114]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of methanol options are presented [118]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis are provided [124][126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]