市场情绪转弱，盘面破位下跌 甲醇月报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/10/10 目录 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 01 月度评估及策略推荐 | 行情回顾 | 9月全月维持窄幅区间震荡，港口库存创下新高，结构持续走弱，但在供需旺季来临背景下市场对供需改善有一定预期，因此 下跌幅度也较小。在国庆节后港口库存进一步走高加上原油等能化品种的下跌，盘面开始破位下行，现实港口弱势格局并未改 | | --- | --- | | | 变，库存仍在高位水平。 | | |  9月国内产量809万吨，环比回落，同比仍有增量。 供应  随着前期检修装置回归，目前国内开工再度回到高位水平。   港口烯烃装置回归，9月旺季传统需求小幅好转。 需求 | | | 原料价格震荡为主，成本端支撑不明显。 | | |  烯烃开工已回到高位，传统需求预计让有走高空间，但整体利润较差，终端需求未见明显好转。 | | 基本面 | ...

港口持续累库，甲醇偏弱震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年9月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期甲醇基本面仍然偏弱，虽然内地荣信一期甲醇装置停车，港口下游MTO兴兴开车等利多因素兑现， 但盘面仍受至于偏高的库存，价格表现持续偏弱。 我们认为甲醇基本面环比有好转预期，但自身供应压力还是比较大，下游MTO开车以后能否有效去库 是比较重要的关键点。长期来看甲醇可能仍需要等待买入时机，我们建议震荡偏弱思路对待，前期空单考虑 离场，多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 单边策略：震荡偏弱思路，前期空单离场。多单建议等待更低价位或者驱动明确。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in methanol fundamentals, methanol futures oscillated narrowly. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2430 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous week. The average price of the port methanol market declined, while the inland market rose [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a week - on - week drop of 3.55%. The number of newly - overhauled devices exceeded those that resumed production [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand was stable. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed mixed trends. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. The port sample inventory was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period [20][24]. - **Profit**: Most methanol enterprises' profits declined last week, with only the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol showing a slight increase [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol devices resuming production is expected to exceed those under overhaul. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.8873 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 83.47%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand is expected to remain stable overall. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products are expected to change slightly. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate is expected to decline, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to increase [32][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 292,300 tons, remaining at a low level. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, methanol prices rose and then fell. Affected by China's anti - involution policy, prices increased significantly in the short term, and option volatility also soared. After the sentiment of related commodities reached its peak, prices began to decline, and methanol returned to its weak fundamental situation, with prices dropping back to the pre - start level. Overall, the upside potential of prices is limited under the weak supply - demand situation [12]. - The supply side shows that domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have gradually recovered to a high level, and subsequent imports will gradually increase. Port olefin devices have stopped, and the load has declined from a high level [12]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of traditional demand has decreased during the off - season, and the overall profit level is at a low level [12]. - In terms of fundamentals, the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline significantly due to improved expectations and weakening reality. Coal prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits remain at a relatively high level. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved, but the absolute level is still not high. The price ratio of methanol to related varieties is at a medium - high level, and the valuation of methanol is still on the high side [12]. - Regarding inventory, port inventory continued to rise in July due to increased imports and stopped port devices. Inland inventory has been maintained at a year - on - year low level due to maintenance and olefin procurement [12]. - The market logic is that as the sentiment of the overall commodity market cools down, methanol returns to its own fundamentals. The weak downstream demand combined with the relatively high valuation of methanol itself puts downward pressure on prices. Domestic production is likely to increase marginally in the future, and port inventory is accumulating faster due to increased import unloading speed and stopped port MTO devices. Inland areas are under less pressure due to olefin procurement. Currently, the valuation of methanol is still high, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are under pressure. Unilateral prices are greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and methanol can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector. The strategy is to pay attention to short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, methanol prices first rose and then fell. Affected by policies, prices increased sharply in the short term, and option volatility also increased. After the peak of commodity sentiment, prices returned to the weak fundamental level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic production in July was 8.41 million tons, with a month - on - month decline and a year - on - year high. It is expected that the operating rate will bottom out and rebound in August. Overseas device operating rates have recovered to a high level, and imports will increase [12]. - **Demand**: Traditional demand operating rates are low during the off - season, and overall profits are low [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The 9 - 1 spread has declined significantly. Coal prices have rebounded, and coal - to - methanol profits are high. Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have improved but are still not high. Methanol valuation is relatively high [12]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory has increased, while inland inventory is at a low level [12]. - **Market Logic**: As commodity sentiment cools, methanol returns to its fundamentals. Weak demand and high valuation put pressure on prices. Future supply is likely to increase, and port inventory is accumulating faster [12]. - **Strategy**: Look for short - position opportunities on price rallies [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Basis and Spread**: The reality is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to decline [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There has been a decline in volume and open interest, accompanied by price drops [24]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profits are at a year - on - year high [36]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to increased arrivals and stopped downstream port devices, port inventory is accumulating faster [39]. - **Regional Inventory**: Inland inventory is at a year - on - year low level due to olefin procurement [42]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: Newly added capacity in 2025 is 7.45 million tons, mainly in the northwest region [50]. - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Domestic production and operating rates have shown certain trends, and overseas operating rates have recovered to a high level [52][54]. - **Imports**: Import volume and its sources are presented, and the arrival volume has increased [59][70]. - **International Price Difference**: The import profit and price differences between China and other regions are analyzed [74]. - **Regional Price Difference**: Port prices have weakened, while inland prices are relatively strong [77]. - **Domestic Freight**: The freight rates of methanol transportation are shown [84]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Consumption and inventory data are presented [88]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Port MTO has stopped, and olefin profits have rebounded [91]. - **PP Production Profits**: The production profits of different PP production processes are analyzed [94]. - **MTO - Related Spreads**: Various spreads related to MTO are presented [97]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Downstream raw material inventory is at a high level [111]. - **Related Variety Price Ratio**: The valuation of methanol is relatively high compared to related varieties [114]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of methanol options are presented [118]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis are provided [124][126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overseas methanol plant operation rate dropped from a high level, but the overall operation level remained relatively high, and the supply pressure was still significant. In August, the pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports further increased. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. - In July, it was the concentrated maintenance period for coal - based methanol plants in the inland areas. In August, some plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were still under maintenance, and the operation rate would gradually recover only in late August. The supply in the inland areas was relatively tight. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry. - The balance sheet showed that the total inventory in August was close to the supply - demand balance, with inventory accumulation at ports and inventory reduction in the inland areas [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Basis Structure - The basis of Taicang Port further weakened, corresponding to the inventory accumulation period at ports. Meanwhile, the MA9 - 1 inter - period spread also continued to weaken. - The basis trends were significantly differentiated. The port basis weakened, while the inland basis rebounded, indicating that the port market was weak and the inland market was strong [17][20]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In December 2024, the 1.7 - million - ton/year Marubeni 3 plant in Malaysia was put into production. In April 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year VenIran apadana Petrochemical Co plant in Iran was put into production, and its operation rate was gradually increasing. In the second half of 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year Dena Methanol plant in Iran was expected to be put into production [22]. Overseas Methanol Operation Rate and Forecast - In July, the overseas plant operation rate dropped from a high level. The Iranian busher plant had a short - term maintenance until early August, the ZPC plant reduced its load to 50%, the Marubeni 1 and 2 plants reduced their loads to 50%, and the 3 plant had been under maintenance since late July. The Brunei plant was scheduled for maintenance in late August, with concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia. In South America, an 880,000 - ton/year plant of Chilean Methanex was still shut down, and the Trinidad plant had been operating stably since July, indicating that the lowest operation rate in South America had passed. The overall overseas operation rate remained at a high level, and the estimated imported methanol arriving at ports in August would further increase to around 1.3 million tons, indicating continued pressure on port arrivals [26]. Methanol Import Profit and Cross - Country Spread - In July, when the overseas operation rate was relatively high, the overseas premium performance was differentiated. Due to concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia, the Southeast Asia - China spread quickly rebounded and then quickly declined again. The US Gulf - China methanol spread strengthened, while the Rotterdam - China spread weakened. Since there was not much maintenance in Europe and the US, it reflected the difference in demand [36]. Methanol Port Inventory - The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Jiangsu, the trading distribution center. The inventory in Zhejiang, where MTO plants were located, decreased as MTO plants redirected their shipments to Jiangsu. The inventory in South China ports also accelerated its accumulation [44]. Downstream MTO Plant Operation - The Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, dragging down the port demand. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - planned load reduction of the Nanjing Chengzhi MTO plant could be implemented [53]. Methanol Regional Spread - Currently, the inland market was strong while the port market was weak, and the port - to - inland return window was largely closed, resulting in a fragmented state between the port and inland markets. In the traditional downstream sector, the unexpectedly high operation rate of MTBE drove the consumption of inland inventory [57]. Inland Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis China's Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In the non - integrated sector, the pressure of newly - added plant production was not significant. In the first half of the year, only the 1 - million - ton/year Xinjiang Zhongtai plant was put into production in May, and its operation rate was not high. In the second half of the year, the newly - added capacity was limited, mainly green methanol. In 2025, the newly - added capacity was mainly from integrated plants, and all three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng had been put into production [64][65]. China's Methanol Operation Rate (by Process) - In terms of existing plants, coal - based methanol plants had concentrated maintenance in July, mainly in Shaanxi. In August, there were still maintenance plans in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and the operation rate would gradually recover only at the end of August. The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry [68]. Methanol Inland Inventory and Traditional Downstream Operation - Against the background of concentrated maintenance of coal - based methanol plants, the inland factory inventory remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The operation rate of traditional downstream industries declined, corresponding to the off - peak season for formaldehyde. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market [74].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for methanol is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2521.00 CNY/ton and reaching a low of 2397.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 4.00% [1] - The methanol market is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and production costs, with high domestic production and operating rates, as well as increased international methanol operating rates and imports [1] - The overall fundamentals of methanol do not show significant contradictions, suggesting a potential for a range-bound market [1] Group 2 - The coal mining capacity verification policy is pushing coal prices up, which in turn supports methanol prices, although the market remains cautious due to potential overheating [2] - The upward movement in methanol prices is limited by the restart of production facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits [2] - There is a warning regarding potential discrepancies in expectations as the political bureau meeting approaches, advising caution for bullish positions and suggesting a wait-and-see approach for conservative investors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - **Profit**: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - **Overall**: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]