1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, next week, the expected high volume of foreign vessels arriving at ports may keep the import demand weak, and there is an expectation of further accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - end fundamental pressure on methanol. In the current macro environment with strong overall sentiment, methanol will fluctuate repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro factors [3][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. Currently, 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. On the downside, the full cost of coal - based methanol enterprises cannot effectively support the price for now. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From December 19 - 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 90.86%, both lower than this period [4]. - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to operate at reduced loads, and the average weekly industry start - up is expected to decline slightly. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may shut down next week, and overall capacity utilization may decline. For glacial acetic acid, with the resumption of some plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some plants in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may shut down, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear maintenance plans for enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The significant inventory accumulation mainly occurred in Jiangsu, with smooth unloading and 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels counted. The提货 in Jiangsu along the Yangtze River weakened significantly due to the weakening inland market, contributing to the large - scale inventory accumulation. In Zhejiang, the inventory fluctuated slightly due to stable demand. In South China ports, the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly, while in Fujian, the inventory increased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including those for basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis text is provided [7][11][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report provides charts showing the daily production and capacity utilization of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region [24]. - **Methanol Production by Process**: Charts display the weekly production of methanol by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, and natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Methanol Capacity Utilization by Region**: Charts show the daily capacity utilization of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Methanol Import - Related**: Charts present the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, and natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [38][44]. 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Charts display the daily capacity utilization of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Charts show the production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid, etc.) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [55][59]. - **MTO and Traditional Downstream Procurement and Inventory**: Charts present the procurement volume of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers, as well as the raw material inventory of traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63][68][73]. 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Charts show the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East and Northwest) from 2018 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Charts present the weekly port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2025 [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, methanol will fluctuate before the holiday. Next week, the expected high volume of foreign ships arriving at ports may lead to a continued accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - term fundamental pressure on methanol. In a macro - environment with strong overall sentiment recently, methanol will fluctuate within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - factors [2][3]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The price range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has gradually stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From December 19 to December 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.86%, a decrease from this period [3]. Demand - Olefins: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may stop production next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decline. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the device is being restored. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some devices in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may stop production, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear maintenance plan for enterprises next week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [3]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 268,000 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The port inventory increased significantly, mainly in Jiangsu. The inventory in the South China port decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it will fluctuate. The upper resistance for contract 05 is 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Short - term reverse arbitrage for the 5 - 9 spread, and it may turn into a positive arbitrage pattern in the medium term. - Inter - variety: The price difference between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [3] Price and Spread - The content mainly presents multiple price - related charts, including basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply Methanol Production and Operating Rate - It shows the production and capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 through charts, including daily production in China, weekly production in the Northwest region, and capacity utilization rates in China and abroad [24] Methanol Production by Process - It presents the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2025, such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, coal co - methanol, and natural gas - based methanol [26] Methanol Operating Rate by Region - It shows the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2025, including the Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central regions [29] Methanol Import - related - It includes the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 through charts [33] Methanol Cost and Profit - It shows the production costs and profits of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025, such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing [38][43] Demand Methanol Downstream Operating Rate - It presents the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. in China from 2020 to 2025 [48] Methanol Downstream Profits - It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO in different regions, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid from 2020 to 2025 [55][59] MTO Procurement Volume by Region - It presents the procurement volumes of methanol by MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region - It shows the procurement volumes of methanol raw materials by traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region - It presents the inventories of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [73] Inventory Methanol Factory Inventory - It shows the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia [78] Methanol Port Inventory - It presents the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong [84]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental improvement of methanol is limited, and the rebound space may be relatively limited [1][7][30] - It is recommended to wait and see temporarily due to the lack of substantial improvement in methanol supply and demand [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures rebounded following the strong port methanol prices. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price reached 2,145 yuan/ton, a 2.68% increase from the previous week [5][10] - Port methanol prices were strong due to slow unloading, inventory reduction, and reduced Iranian loading speed, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2,070 - 2,190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,050 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak due to seasonal freight increases and high downstream raw material inventories. The price range in Ordos North Line was 1,950 - 1,973 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2,225 - 2,230 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week (2025.12.12 - 12.18), China's methanol production was 2,055,975 tons, an increase of 18,370 tons from the previous week, with a device capacity utilization rate of 90.52%, a 0.90% increase [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: MTO industry's weekly average start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 70.10%, a 7.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate was 7.09%, a 21.05% decrease; acetic acid's overall capacity utilization rate increased; methane chloride's capacity utilization rate increased; formaldehyde's capacity utilization rate decreased [15][16] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 22.04 million tons, a 6.25% increase. The port sample inventory decreased to 1.2188 billion tons, a 1.26% decrease [18][21] - **Profit**: Last week, coal prices continued to decline, while coke oven gas and natural gas prices were stable. Coal - to - methanol profits improved, coke oven gas - to - methanol profits weakened, and natural gas - to - methanol profits were stable. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 135.80 yuan/ton, a 14.10% increase [24] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an expected production of about 2.0667 billion tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 91.00%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The overall start - up of the MTO industry is expected to rise slightly; the supply of dimethyl ether is expected to be stable; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the overall capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to decline slightly [28][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 39.53 million tons, showing a slight increase. The port methanol is expected to accumulate inventory [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, and the rebound space of methanol may be limited. The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended that long positions in methanol futures consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily exiting the market [1][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to the expectation of weakening methanol fundamentals, methanol futures declined and adjusted. By the Friday afternoon close, methanol weighted closed at 2,119 yuan/ton, a 2.03% decrease from the previous week. The port methanol market was mainly strong, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,090 - 2,160 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,070 - 2,110 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1,992 - 2,007 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price from 2,195 - 2,210 yuan/ton [13] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a slight decrease [16] - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand for methanol was stable. The olefin capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the acetic acid load decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [17][19] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 239,700 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase. The inventory of China's methanol port samples continued to decline, reaching 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 1.03% decrease [21][23] - **Profit**: Last week, the theoretical profits of domestic methanol sample process routes for methanol production improved. The losses of coal - based and natural gas - based production narrowed, and the profits of coke oven gas - based production increased [27] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, it is expected that the number of restarted domestic methanol devices will be more than that of overhauled ones. China's methanol production is expected to be about 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.74%, an increase from last week [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin operating rate is expected to decrease, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to rise, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decrease, and the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase [30] - **Inventory**: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly to 356,600 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to increase, but it depends on the unloading situation of foreign vessels [32] - **Overall**: The supply and demand of methanol are still loose, there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the first half of the month traded on the logic of weak reality, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at high levels and spot prices accelerating their decline. At the end of the month, with the confirmation of news about Iranian plant maintenance, the market started to trade on the logic of expected improvement, and both spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded. The monthly spread and basis strengthened, and market expectations reversed [11]. - The supply side remained at a high level in November, with domestic methanol production reaching 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Affected by the decline in methanol spot prices, the profits of inland enterprises have returned to the seasonal neutral level. The arrival volume in November was 1.467 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume in December is expected to remain at a high level [11]. - On the demand side, olefin demand increased slightly, but there are expectations of port plant maintenance in the future, so there is a risk of demand decline. Traditional demand entered the off - season, showing overall weakness with generally low profit levels [11]. - In terms of valuation, with the realization of positive factors, both the basis and monthly spread have strengthened. The port MTO ratio first rose and then fell, currently at a neutral level. The overall valuation of methanol is relatively neutral [11]. - In November, port inventories decreased by nearly 140,000 tons, and the current inventory is 1.349 million tons, with the absolute inventory level still relatively high. Enterprise inventories decreased by 2,300 tons, and the current inventory is 360,000 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - After the positive factors were realized, the futures market fell into short - term consolidation again. With the high inventory, there is still pressure on prices. The market is expected to be mainly in low - level consolidation, and the strategy recommends waiting and seeing [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: In November, the market first traded on weak reality and then on expected improvement. Spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, and market expectations reversed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: High supply, with domestic production at a high level and expected high arrival volume in December. Demand has risks of decline, especially for olefins due to potential port plant maintenance. Traditional demand is weak. Valuation is relatively neutral, and inventory levels are mixed, with high port inventory and low enterprise inventory [11]. - **Market Logic**: After the positive factors from overseas plant shutdowns were realized, the market fell into consolidation. There is still a risk of short - term weakening in the fundamentals, and high inventory exerts pressure on prices [11]. - **Strategy**: Recommend waiting and seeing [11]. 3.2 Period - Spot Market - The document provides multiple charts related to the methanol period - spot market, including the term structure, prices in Jiangsu, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the 01 contract and the total trading volume and open interest of methanol [20][22][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit - related**: Charts show the prices of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal, as well as the profit calculations of coal - based and gas - based methanol production in different regions [31][34][39]. - **Inventory - related**: Port inventory is showing a slowdown in destocking. There are also charts about regional inventories, including华东,华南, and enterprise inventories, as well as inventory projections and warehouse receipts [41][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Domestic and Overseas Production**: Charts show the domestic methanol operating rate, weekly production, and overseas methanol operating rate [50]. - **Import Volume**: There are charts about the import volume and its projection, as well as the import volume from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [52][56]. - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume has rebounded to a high level, with charts showing the arrival volume in China, East China, and South China [61][62][64]. - **Price Spreads**: There are charts about import profits, international price spreads between China and other regions, and domestic regional price spreads [66][70]. - **Domestic Freight**: Charts show the freight prices of methanol transportation in different routes [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Demand Projection**: Charts show the consumption volume and ending inventory [82]. - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Include the operating rate of olefins, the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of related enterprises [84][85][89]. - **PP Production Profits**: Show the production profits of PP through different processes [93]. - **MTO - related Spreads**: Include spreads such as PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, etc. [96]. - **Other Downstream Products**: Include the operating rate and profit of acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, as well as the downstream demand proportion of methanol [104][106][109]. - **Downstream Inventory**: There is a chart about the inventory of downstream manufacturers [112]. - **Relative Prices**: Include the relative prices of methanol with urea, INE crude oil, power coal, and EG [114]. 3.6 Option - related - The document provides charts about the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of methanol options [118][120]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - There are charts about the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and the rebound space of methanol futures may be limited. It is recommended to consider reducing positions to take profits or temporarily leaving the market for methanol long positions [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol port inventory decreased significantly, and the methanol futures and spot prices strengthened simultaneously. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price reached 2,163 yuan/ton, a 6.24% increase from the previous week. The port methanol market price stopped falling and trended stronger, and the inland methanol price also increased [6][14] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Production - Last week (20251121 - 1127), China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [15] 3.2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the weekly average start - up of the olefin industry increased slightly; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased by 38.49% from the previous week; the load of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased; and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [19][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 373,700 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous period, and the order backlog was 230,700 tons, a 6.34% decrease from the previous period. The methanol port sample inventory was 1,363,500 tons, a 7.83% decrease from the previous period [21][26] 3.2.4 Profit - Last week (20251121 - 1127), the theoretical profit of domestic methanol sample enterprises was still weak overall. The profits from coal - based and natural - gas - based production were still weak, while that from coke - oven - gas - based production improved slightly [29] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook 3.3.1 Supply - This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may exceed that of the overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.27%, an increase from last week [34] 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The weekly average start - up of olefins is expected to continue to increase; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to decline; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase slightly; and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise [37][38] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to reach 374,900 tons, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend. The port inventory is expected to increase, but the specific inventory trend still depends on the unloading and picking - up speeds [38] - Overall, the methanol supply and demand remain loose, and there is no substantial positive driving force in the fundamentals. The subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, methanol price rebounds from a low valuation due to Iranian methanol plants' gas - limit shutdowns and short - covering caused by concentrated short positions. Medium - term, the methanol fundamentals still face pressure, and future focus should be on port inventory and Iranian plant operations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on November 26, 2025, the closing price of methanol's main 01 contract was 2,094 yuan/ton, up 27 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,089 yuan/ton, up 19; the trading volume was 1,611,623 lots; the open interest was 1,154,690 lots, down 45,683; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, up 1,400; the trading volume was 3,366,024 ten - thousand yuan, up 725,702 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 6, up 1, and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 107, up 14 [1] - In the spot market, on November 26, 2025, the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,970 yuan/ton, up 5; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,940 yuan/ton, up 5; the price in Shandong was 2,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2052.81, up 7.14. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2088, up 28, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990, up 2.5. Thirteen out of 20 monitored cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 36 yuan/ton. The futures market was in high - level narrow - range fluctuations, with general spot negotiations and mainly far - month futures - cash transactions. The spot market remained active, but market optimism weakened due to expectations of plant restarts and incoming cargoes. Downstream demand was rational, and high - level inventories from previous low - price purchases provided limited support [3] - As of November 26, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 136.35 million tons, down 11.58 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, with only 15.20 million tons of visible unloading. Supported by reverse flow, Jiangsu's riverside warehouses had good pick - up, and the load of some major downstream enterprises increased slightly; Zhejiang's demand was stable. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic cargoes arrived, and the pick - up from major warehouses was stable. In Fujian, with no incoming vessels, the inventory decreased due to stable consumption [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity was 1, indicating a relatively weak positive trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driver for methanol is downward, but the downside space is narrowing [2][4] - In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, and the MTO industry's fundamental pressure increases, suppressing the upward space of methanol. With weak macro drivers and a weak industrial chain, methanol has been performing weakly recently. As coal - to - methanol processing profits are gradually compressed, the pricing logic of the cost side has slightly increased in weight. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize [4] - Unilateral: The unilateral center oscillates downward; the upper pressure for 01 is 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the spread, the 1 - 5 month spread is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and the spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts over the years from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10] - Graphs display the trends of domestic spot prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan, as well as international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [12][13][14][16][17][18] - Graphs present the trends of port - inland price spreads (e.g., Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing) from 2020 - 2025 [19][20][21][22] Supply - **New Capacity Summary**: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into operation, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 tons in 2024 and 830 tons in 2025. Overseas, there was a total international capacity expansion of 355 tons in 2024 and an expected 330 tons in 2025 [24] - **Maintenance Summary**: Multiple companies have carried out maintenance, with details such as start - stop dates, daily loss amounts, and total loss amounts provided [27] - **Production and Operating Rate**: From January 14 - 20, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, with an operating rate of 88.77%, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0266 million tons, with an operating rate of around 89.31%. Graphs show the trends of methanol production, operating rates in China and abroad, and production by process (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, etc.) over the years [4][28][30][31][32] - **Import - Related**: Graphs show the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40][41] - **Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, etc.) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [43][44][45][49][50][51] Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the trends of operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and others from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55][56] - **Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the profit trends of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, and MTBE in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63][64][65][66] - **MTO Procurement Volume**: Graphs show the procurement volume trends of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71] - **Traditional Downstream Procurement Volume**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volume trends of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [73][74][75][76] - **Traditional Downstream Inventory**: Graphs show the inventory trends of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80][81] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the trends of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, etc.) from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - **Port Inventory**: Graphs show the trends of methanol port inventory in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - Last week, methanol prices continued to decline as the fundamental situation of the 01 contract couldn't provide support. Although there was a rebound due to factors like plant shutdowns and gas restrictions, the increasing shipments from Iran made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Even with the strong upward trend of thermal coal prices, it was still hard to support the cost of methanol in Henan. Considering the higher - than - average temperature in Iran, gas restrictions might be delayed until mid - November. The 11 - month shipments exceeded expectations, and port inventories were likely to remain high. The regional price difference indicated that the port would continue to flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market would decline. Therefore, the 01 contract of methanol might continue to decline to find support. It was recommended to hold the previously sold call options and conduct a 12 - 1 reverse spread [6]. Section Summaries Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When there is a risk of price decline and high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short methanol futures (MA2601, sell, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350). They can also buy put options (MA2601P2250, buy, 50% hedging ratio) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (MA2601C2350, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy methanol futures (MA2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2450 - 2550). They can also sell put options (MA2601P2300, sell, 75% hedging ratio, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the methanol price drops [3]. Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in Iranian shipments has put pressure on the 01 port contract. Although the increase in port inventory is limited recently, most of it is in floating storage, and the inventory is likely to remain high. The regional price difference shows that the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [6]. - **Cost**: Even if the thermal coal price in the northern port rises to 900, it is still difficult to support the cost of methanol in Henan [6]. - **Inventory Forecast**: This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so the port methanol inventory is expected to increase [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol remained weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. The supply of methanol is still relatively abundant, and the demand such as MTO is expected to be weak. The spot market of methanol may be mainly weak. In the short term, it is still difficult to substantially improve the supply and demand of methanol, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol, and the methanol price may still fluctuate [6][9][10]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol were still weak, but the methanol futures fluctuated and consolidated under the boost of strong crude oil. The weighted methanol closed at 2,282 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.26% from the previous week. In the spot market, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations, the提货 volume decreased significantly, the port methanol inventory increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was weak, suppressing the market price. The price of methanol in the mainland had no strong positive support, and the downstream procurement was negative under the pressure of high inventory. After the news of external procurement of olefins in the production area spread, the market first declined and then rose, but the procurement situation was not ideal [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the domestic methanol production continued to decline. The number of methanol plant overhauls was more than that of restarts, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. The production was 1,943,465 tons, a decrease of 39,690 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 2.00% month-on-month [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of methanol showed a downward trend. The overall start - up of the olefin industry decreased, the capacity utilization rate of DME decreased, the capacity utilization rate of chlorides decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased. Only the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly [18][19]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of October 22, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises increased to 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the order backlog decreased to 215,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79% [21]. - **Port Inventory**: As of October 22, China's methanol port sample inventory increased to 1,512,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.39%. Affected by weather and other factors, the unloading of foreign vessels continued to fall short of expectations. The inventory in East China increased, the inventory in Zhejiang decreased, the inventory in South China showed destocking, and the inventory in Fujian increased slightly [24]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of China's methanol samples was poor. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol shrank, and the gas - based methanol remained in a loss state [26]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of restarts of domestic methanol plants may be more than that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9892 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.66%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The start - up of olefin enterprises will continue to decrease passively. The capacity utilization rate of DME is expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to decrease slightly. The capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to remain at last week's level. The capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [32][34]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises will be 341,300 tons, a slight destocking compared with last week. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - **Overall**: The fundamentals of methanol are still weak, but the strengthening of crude oil boosts methanol. In the short term, methanol is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].