Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, methanol will fluctuate before the holiday. Next week, the expected high volume of foreign ships arriving at ports may lead to a continued accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - term fundamental pressure on methanol. In a macro - environment with strong overall sentiment recently, methanol will fluctuate within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - factors [2][3]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The price range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has gradually stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From December 19 to December 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.86%, a decrease from this period [3]. Demand - Olefins: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may stop production next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decline. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the device is being restored. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some devices in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may stop production, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear maintenance plan for enterprises next week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [3]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 268,000 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The port inventory increased significantly, mainly in Jiangsu. The inventory in the South China port decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it will fluctuate. The upper resistance for contract 05 is 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Short - term reverse arbitrage for the 5 - 9 spread, and it may turn into a positive arbitrage pattern in the medium term. - Inter - variety: The price difference between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [3] Price and Spread - The content mainly presents multiple price - related charts, including basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply Methanol Production and Operating Rate - It shows the production and capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 through charts, including daily production in China, weekly production in the Northwest region, and capacity utilization rates in China and abroad [24] Methanol Production by Process - It presents the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2025, such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, coal co - methanol, and natural gas - based methanol [26] Methanol Operating Rate by Region - It shows the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2025, including the Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central regions [29] Methanol Import - related - It includes the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 through charts [33] Methanol Cost and Profit - It shows the production costs and profits of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025, such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing [38][43] Demand Methanol Downstream Operating Rate - It presents the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. in China from 2020 to 2025 [48] Methanol Downstream Profits - It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO in different regions, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid from 2020 to 2025 [55][59] MTO Procurement Volume by Region - It presents the procurement volumes of methanol by MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region - It shows the procurement volumes of methanol raw materials by traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region - It presents the inventories of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [73] Inventory Methanol Factory Inventory - It shows the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia [78] Methanol Port Inventory - It presents the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong [84]