1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, next week, the expected high volume of foreign vessels arriving at ports may keep the import demand weak, and there is an expectation of further accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - end fundamental pressure on methanol. In the current macro environment with strong overall sentiment, methanol will fluctuate repeatedly within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro factors [3][4]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. Currently, 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. On the downside, the full cost of coal - based methanol enterprises cannot effectively support the price for now. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol is gradually stabilizing around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From December 19 - 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 90.86%, both lower than this period [4]. - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to operate at reduced loads, and the average weekly industry start - up is expected to decline slightly. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may shut down next week, and overall capacity utilization may decline. For glacial acetic acid, with the resumption of some plants, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some plants in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may shut down, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear maintenance plans for enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The significant inventory accumulation mainly occurred in Jiangsu, with smooth unloading and 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels counted. The提货 in Jiangsu along the Yangtze River weakened significantly due to the weakening inland market, contributing to the large - scale inventory accumulation. In Zhejiang, the inventory fluctuated slightly due to stable demand. In South China ports, the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly, while in Fujian, the inventory increased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including those for basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis text is provided [7][11][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report provides charts showing the daily production and capacity utilization of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region [24]. - **Methanol Production by Process**: Charts display the weekly production of methanol by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal co - alcohol, and natural gas) in China from 2018 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Methanol Capacity Utilization by Region**: Charts show the daily capacity utilization of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Methanol Import - Related**: Charts present the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, and natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [38][44]. 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Charts display the daily capacity utilization of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Charts show the production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid, etc.) in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [55][59]. - **MTO and Traditional Downstream Procurement and Inventory**: Charts present the procurement volume of MTO production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers, as well as the raw material inventory of traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63][68][73]. 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Charts show the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East and Northwest) from 2018 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Charts present the weekly port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2025 [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, methanol will fluctuate before the holiday. Next week, the expected high volume of foreign ships arriving at ports may lead to a continued accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - term fundamental pressure on methanol. In a macro - environment with strong overall sentiment recently, methanol will fluctuate within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - factors [2][3]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The price range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has gradually stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From December 19 to December 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.86%, a decrease from this period [3]. Demand - Olefins: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may stop production next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decline. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the device is being restored. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some devices in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may stop production, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear maintenance plan for enterprises next week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [3]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 268,000 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The port inventory increased significantly, mainly in Jiangsu. The inventory in the South China port decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it will fluctuate. The upper resistance for contract 05 is 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Short - term reverse arbitrage for the 5 - 9 spread, and it may turn into a positive arbitrage pattern in the medium term. - Inter - variety: The price difference between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [3] Price and Spread - The content mainly presents multiple price - related charts, including basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply Methanol Production and Operating Rate - It shows the production and capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 through charts, including daily production in China, weekly production in the Northwest region, and capacity utilization rates in China and abroad [24] Methanol Production by Process - It presents the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2025, such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, coal co - methanol, and natural gas - based methanol [26] Methanol Operating Rate by Region - It shows the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2025, including the Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central regions [29] Methanol Import - related - It includes the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 through charts [33] Methanol Cost and Profit - It shows the production costs and profits of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025, such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing [38][43] Demand Methanol Downstream Operating Rate - It presents the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. in China from 2020 to 2025 [48] Methanol Downstream Profits - It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO in different regions, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid from 2020 to 2025 [55][59] MTO Procurement Volume by Region - It presents the procurement volumes of methanol by MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region - It shows the procurement volumes of methanol raw materials by traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region - It presents the inventories of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [73] Inventory Methanol Factory Inventory - It shows the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia [78] Methanol Port Inventory - It presents the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driver for methanol is downward, but the downside space is narrowing [2][4] - In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, and the MTO industry's fundamental pressure increases, suppressing the upward space of methanol. With weak macro drivers and a weak industrial chain, methanol has been performing weakly recently. As coal - to - methanol processing profits are gradually compressed, the pricing logic of the cost side has slightly increased in weight. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize [4] - Unilateral: The unilateral center oscillates downward; the upper pressure for 01 is 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the spread, the 1 - 5 month spread is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and the spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and warehouse receipts over the years from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10] - Graphs display the trends of domestic spot prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan, as well as international spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [12][13][14][16][17][18] - Graphs present the trends of port - inland price spreads (e.g., Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing) from 2020 - 2025 [19][20][21][22] Supply - **New Capacity Summary**: In 2024 - 2025, China has multiple new methanol plants put into operation, with a total domestic capacity expansion of 400 tons in 2024 and 830 tons in 2025. Overseas, there was a total international capacity expansion of 355 tons in 2024 and an expected 330 tons in 2025 [24] - **Maintenance Summary**: Multiple companies have carried out maintenance, with details such as start - stop dates, daily loss amounts, and total loss amounts provided [27] - **Production and Operating Rate**: From January 14 - 20, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, with an operating rate of 88.77%, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0266 million tons, with an operating rate of around 89.31%. Graphs show the trends of methanol production, operating rates in China and abroad, and production by process (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, etc.) over the years [4][28][30][31][32] - **Import - Related**: Graphs show the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40][41] - **Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, etc.) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [43][44][45][49][50][51] Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the trends of operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, and others from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55][56] - **Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the profit trends of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, and MTBE in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63][64][65][66] - **MTO Procurement Volume**: Graphs show the procurement volume trends of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][70][71] - **Traditional Downstream Procurement Volume**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volume trends of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [73][74][75][76] - **Traditional Downstream Inventory**: Graphs show the inventory trends of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80][81] Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the trends of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, etc.) from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] - **Port Inventory**: Graphs show the trends of methanol port inventory in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91]