Group 1 - Jefferies downgraded Vistra Energy's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced the target price from $241 to $230 due to concerns over the lack of announcements regarding the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant data center deal [1] - Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith noted that the current stock price reflects a 100% probability for the Comanche nuclear contract price at $100 per megawatt-hour and a 75% probability for the PJM nuclear asset contract price at $88 per megawatt-hour [1] - The analyst expressed optimism about Vistra's power business but highlighted increasing political risks in Texas and PJM, along with surprise at the lack of related transactions by independent power producers [1] Group 2 - Dumoulin-Smith mentioned that potential issues related to processes are affecting confidence in Vistra's ability to complete the Comanche project and other transactions in a timely manner [2] - As of Tuesday's market close, Vistra's stock fell by 6.28% to $204.24, despite a year-to-date increase of 49% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [21]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in performance due to falling coal prices, with a 14.2% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to recover as coal prices stabilize, supported by its strong resource endowment and low-cost mining advantages [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 779.8 billion yuan, down 14.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 76.4 billion yuan, down 31.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The coal business generated revenue of 683.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year, with a slight increase in production and sales volume [4]. - The average selling price of coal dropped to 439.7 yuan per ton, a decline of 23.8% year-on-year [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 5% of the net profit for the first half of 2025, amounting to 3.82 billion yuan, based on a total share capital of 9.695 billion shares [6]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 163.8 billion yuan, 170.4 billion yuan, and 188.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.69, 1.76, and 1.94 yuan per share [7].