智通财经12月22日讯（编辑 马兰）综合报道，美国总统特朗普认为2026年的美国中期选举将聚焦在价 格议题上，围绕美国经济成功和价格下降展开，他还强调能源和汽油价格已经明显回落。 与此同时，特朗普再次警告美国政府可能出现停摆风险。他敦促参议院共和党人废除参议院的冗长辩论 规则。冗长辩论规则即一种通过无限制延长辩论时间以阻止提案表决的议会程序，参议院必须有60票通 过才可能进入投票阶段。 特朗普指出，只有取消这一规则，美国政府才不会停摆，且这有助于推动美国的医疗改革和选民身份证 等立法程序。 除了医疗保费之外，两党还在国防、教育、交通等一系列拨款问题上存在分歧，甚至两党内部也未能形 成一致的意见，进一步加剧了国会在1月继续僵持的风险。 还有一些人士则透露，立法停滞和士气低落的情况已经持续了相当长一段时间。十几名前议员指出，立 法者和国会机构证面临着重大挑战，党内领导层权力日益集中，导致议员们无法真正履行立法职责。 此外，美国总统的权力扩大也是一个重要因素。前共和党议员Charlie Dent称，最近与一名党鞭团队成 员的谈话中发现，如果党内有人表示尚未决定或者不想和共和党一致行动，那么他就会被询问，希望今 天还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies are increasingly selling off assets in Europe as a strategic response to rising political risks, exemplified by the recent sale of Fosber Group by Dongfang Precision to an American firm for €774 million, despite the company being highly profitable and a significant revenue contributor [5][12][34]. Group 1: Company Actions - Dongfang Precision sold its Italian subsidiary Fosber Group, a leader in corrugated cardboard production, to the American Brookfield Group for €774 million (approximately 6.3 billion RMB) [12][27]. - The sale occurred at a time when Fosber was generating nearly 70% of Dongfang Precision's revenue and experiencing significant profit growth [10][23]. - The decision to sell was influenced by the political climate in Europe, particularly following the "Anshi Incident" in the Netherlands, which raised concerns about potential government interventions in foreign-owned companies [16][21]. Group 2: Market Context - The sale reflects a broader trend of Chinese companies reassessing their investments in Europe due to increasing political risks and regulatory scrutiny [39][41]. - The transaction allowed Dongfang Precision to realize a significant return on investment, with the asset appreciating over seven times since its acquisition for €74 million a decade ago [29]. - The move is seen as a strategic shift for Dongfang Precision, redirecting funds into critical domestic sectors such as high-end power and robotics, aiming to reduce reliance on European manufacturing [32][34]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The political climate in Europe is causing a retreat of Chinese investments, with companies like Ningbo Huaxiang facing harsher consequences and opting for "tail-cutting" strategies [36][39]. - The exit of Chinese firms could lead to significant disruptions in European supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector, where companies like Volkswagen and BMW rely on Chinese suppliers [41][43]. - The European market may struggle to maintain its manufacturing capabilities without the technological and financial support from Chinese investments, raising concerns about the long-term viability of its industrial base [43][45].

文丨编辑 来科点谱 «——【·前言·】——» 英伟达一天之内没了一万亿人民币市值，这事儿得从美国密苏里州的操作说起，11月20日当地共和党政 客突然发狠，写信给白宫要联邦政府向中国 "催债"，张口就要250亿美元。 可这时候中美关系刚有点缓和，釜山会谈的余温还在，芬太尼和关税谈判正推进，这一闹直接让局面紧 绷，更怪的是，换以前早骂翻天的特朗普这次居然闭了嘴。 把这三件事凑一块儿就看明白了，美国内部闹得厉害，这哪是要债，分明是故意添乱，逼着特朗普表 态。 中美刚要缓和，就有人点火 一切还要从那个让人搞不懂的"转弯"说起，自釜山会谈之后，太平洋两岸的风向确实变了，不论是美国 总统特朗普，还是防长赫格塞斯，近期在公开场合的口风都软了下来。 他们开始频繁提一个不太像"鹰派"会说的话：和中国合作能让美国变得更强大。 这不是客套话，如果你去看最近的政策清单，会发现双方在港口收费标准、关税豁免、甚至芬太尼相关 化合物的出口监管上，都开始实际地互换筹码。 哈纳威是法学出身，不可能不知道，但她偏偏挑在中美刚见缓的时候，把这具"僵尸"从土里刨出来亮给 公众看，政治动机明显远大于法律意义。 问题是，不管中国还是特朗普政府，对这种长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent actions by China regarding rare earth exports and technology controls have sparked global attention, indicating a significant shift in international trade rules and geopolitical dynamics [1][3] Group 1: China's Position in Rare Earth Market - China is the largest producer of rare earth elements, controlling approximately 90% of high-purity rare earth production capacity, which underscores its substantial influence in the market [1] - The recent export control measures by China encompass raw materials, technology, and equipment across multiple segments of the industry, even affecting products processed in third countries, leading to a comprehensive "blockade" strategy [1] Group 2: Netherlands' Actions and Implications - The Dutch government has taken measures against China's Wingtech Technology, freezing assets of its subsidiary, ASML, in 30 global entities, signaling a provocative stance against China and a violation of international trade norms [3] - The actions taken by the Netherlands are seen as a response to the broader U.S.-EU strategy to curb China's technological advancements, indicating a shift in how commercial issues are being politicized [3][5] Group 3: Impact on International Investment Environment - The intertwining of commercial and political issues is reshaping the international investment landscape, potentially leading to increased "political risks" for Chinese companies' overseas assets [5] - The current global economic recovery phase makes the protection of Chinese assets abroad a pressing concern for both political and business leaders, especially in high-tech sectors [5] Group 4: China's Strategic Response - China is expected to utilize legal, diplomatic, and public opinion strategies to defend its rights, challenging arbitrary actions taken under the guise of "national security" [7] - Emphasizing technological independence and internal development of the supply chain is crucial for China to counter Western technological blockades [7] - China should actively participate in reshaping international rules to ensure fair and equitable development for all nations, moving away from historically unfavorable multilateral trade rules [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

Core Insights - The recent political turmoil in France has led to a significant decline in market sentiment towards the euro, marking the highest level of pessimism among options traders in months [1][3] - Despite a recovery in the French stock and bond markets, the euro is on track for its worst weekly performance in a year, with options pricing indicating the bleakest outlook since June [1] - The current market movements represent one of the most notable trends in the eurozone in recent years, with a significant bearish re-pricing occurring in the risk reversal indicator [1] Market Reactions - The resignation of the French Prime Minister has contributed to market instability, prompting investors to closely monitor President Macron's appointment of a successor [3] - There is hope that the new appointment will stabilize the market and facilitate the passage of the budget in parliament [3]

NHK：日本公明党将退出与自民党的执政联盟。公明党党首已向自民党党首高市早苗表明退出执政联盟的意向，理由是政治献金问题没有得到充分的解答。 https://t.co/0xuHaTKFQF外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#报告 野村日本研究：不确定的联合执政谈判和政治风险。 ...

#报告 美银全球股市波动率洞察：为持续的意外政治风险而交易。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - Jefferies downgraded Vistra Energy's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced the target price from $241 to $230 due to concerns over the lack of announcements regarding the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant data center deal [1] - Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith noted that the current stock price reflects a 100% probability for the Comanche nuclear contract price at $100 per megawatt-hour and a 75% probability for the PJM nuclear asset contract price at $88 per megawatt-hour [1] - The analyst expressed optimism about Vistra's power business but highlighted increasing political risks in Texas and PJM, along with surprise at the lack of related transactions by independent power producers [1] Group 2 - Dumoulin-Smith mentioned that potential issues related to processes are affecting confidence in Vistra's ability to complete the Comanche project and other transactions in a timely manner [2] - As of Tuesday's market close, Vistra's stock fell by 6.28% to $204.24, despite a year-to-date increase of 49% [2]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%[2] - The decision aligns with market expectations and reflects a "prudent easing" policy stance[3] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the same period last year[5] - Consumer spending has shown signs of weakness, while investment in equipment and intangibles has improved[5] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 1.6%, significantly lower than the 2024 level[7] Employment Trends - Non-farm payrolls have averaged only 29,000 new jobs over the past three months, well below the break-even level needed to maintain stable unemployment[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% this year, with a gradual decline expected thereafter[12] Inflation Concerns - The PCE index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[13] - The Fed's cautious language regarding inflation reflects heightened sensitivity to rising price levels[13] Political Influences - Political pressure from former President Trump has become a significant variable affecting Fed policy, with calls for more aggressive rate cuts[15] - The appointment of Miran to the Fed Board is seen as a move to strengthen Trump's influence within the Fed[16] Asset Management - The Fed will continue its balance sheet reduction at a pace of $40 billion per month, with no changes to the current schedule[19] - The overall asset balance of the Fed has been gradually declining, with total assets at approximately $6.61 trillion as of September 10, 2025[24]