Report Title - "Macro and Industrial Tailwinds Drive Copper Prices Higher with Volatility: November Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Date - November 7, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, copper prices rose significantly, with a monthly increase of 4.69%. Supported by macro - positive factors and fundamentals, copper prices are generally strong. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate at a high level under the joint promotion of macro and fundamental factors. After the subsequent macro - sentiment is gradually digested and high copper prices drag down downstream demand, copper prices will enter a stage of oscillating correction. However, due to the tight supply of copper mines, the downside space for copper prices is limited [5][92] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, copper prices rose significantly, with a monthly increase of 4.69%. As of October 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 87,010 yuan/ton. Macro - positive factors were released, and the fundamentals supported copper prices. Although domestic consumption was suppressed by high copper prices, long - term demand in new energy, power, and AI computing still existed [5] 2. Macro - factor Analysis Overseas Macro - US inflation growth slowed down in September. The CPI and core CPI growth rates were lower than expected. The "small non - farm" data declined in September, and new ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery in the employment market. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, indicating continuous contraction, while the ISM services PMI was 52.4, reaching an eight - month high [12][15] Domestic Macro - In September, the decline in China's CPI narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. The PPI decline also narrowed. The growth rate of social financing scale remained stable. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, while the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage point. The overall economic output remained stable [23][26] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disturbances in global copper mines, and the mine supply growth rate was revised down from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to August, the cumulative global copper concentrate production was 15.349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. As of October 31, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 461,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons during the month [33] Smelting End - Affected by the shortage of copper mines, the processing fee has reached a historical low. As of October 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 42.26 US dollars/ton. In October, the domestic southern copper processing fee and the imported CIF copper processing fee increased slightly [35] Refined Copper - In October, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. In September, the copper capacity utilization rate was 83.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 percentage points. In October, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong [38] Import and Export - In September, China's refined copper imports were 331,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.91%. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons. From January to September, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper was 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In September, the import of copper ore was 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.55%. As of October 31, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.9976, and the import profit and loss of copper spot improved [40] Scrap Copper - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.84%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper widened during the month [43] Processing Link - In September, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 70.30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was low. The operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper tube, copper foil, and copper rod in September were 66.02%, 67.68%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively. High copper prices suppressed downstream demand [46][49] Terminal Demand - From January to September, the investment in power grid projects was 437.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, and the investment in power source projects was 598.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The growth rate of new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic slowed down. In September, the real estate completion area increased, but new construction and sales were still sluggish. The real estate industry was still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down downstream demand. In September, the production of automobiles and new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, and the high - growth trend of new energy vehicles continued. The production growth rate of household appliances remained stable [52][55][60] Inventory - As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.58%. The domestic social copper inventory was 1.826 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.13%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 9.74% month - on - month, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 6.12% month - on - month. The global visible copper inventory increased by 8.66% month - on - month [63][69] Premium and Discount - In October, the domestic copper spot changed from premium to discount, and the LME 0 - 3 remained at a discount [74] Long and Short Positions in Domestic and Foreign Markets - As of October 31, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased. The net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions stopped updating [77][78] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continued to rise. After breaking through the historical high of 89,000, it has pulled back and is currently oscillating and adjusting around 86,000. In the short term, there is still a possibility of adjustment, with an operating range of 84,000 - 90,000 [85] 5. Outlook for the Future - Macroscopically, Sino - US trade frictions have eased, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is not over. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightening, and downstream demand is suppressed by high prices. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate at a high level and then enter a correction stage. Due to the support of tight supply, the downside space for copper prices is limited. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [91][92]