开源证券认为2025年以来基建投资和建筑新签规模持续走弱，细分板块景气度出现分化，在政府化债和企业降负债 工作的持续推进下，建筑板块有望迎来基本面、政策面和估值的共振，建议关注行业在建筑出海、城市更新、数字 化建设、电力工程以及化债等领域的边际变化，持续看好估值处于低位、业绩稳健的建筑央企龙头及区域龙头。 | | 涨跌幅 | 活性 | | 年化收益 | 可證 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159635(基建50ETF) | | 0.01 | | 33.57 | 74% | | 000300(沪深300) | 0949 | 47 | 3.46% | | -3.37% | 从估值层面来看，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.64倍，处于近10年33.21%的分位，即估值 低于近10年66.79%以上的时间，具备低位布局性价比。 近期A股市场以震荡为主，从区间表现来看，基建板块走势相对稳健，基建50ETF近15个交易日上涨1.75%，同期沪 深300指数上涨0.95% （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

开源证券近日发布建筑装饰行业投资策略：2025年1-10月累计固定资产投资同比-1.7%，其中基建投资 同比+1.5%，增幅环比收窄1.8个百分点；2025年1-9月，建筑业新签合同额21.30万亿元，同比-4.6%，其 中三季度同比-0.7%，新签订单增速降幅明显收窄；1-9月建筑在手订单59.95万亿元，同比-1.8%，存量 订单降幅小于新签合同。 投资建议 以下为研究报告摘要： 基建投资同比增速收窄，建筑板块整体弱于大市 八大央企新签订单稳健，企业分化加剧 从新签合同来看，八大央企2025上半年整体新签合同同比基本持平。受基建投资增速放缓、地产复苏不 及预期、地方财政压力导致的回款周期拉长等因素影响，八大央企上半年收入承压，八大央企整体收入 增速-4.4%，归母净利润增速-7.5%；2025上半年应收账款规模提升较明显，资产负债率仍未明显改善。 推荐建筑出海、城市更新、数字化建设、电力工程以及化债等主线 （1）建筑出海：2025年1-10月，我国对外承包工程业务累计完成额1341.8亿美元，同比+7.9%；其 中"一带一路"国家累计完成额1123.5亿美元，同比+11.4%，占比83.7%，"一带一路" ...

开源证券认为2025年以来基建投资和建筑新签规模持续走弱，细分板块景气度出现分化，在政府化债和 企业降负债工作的持续推进下，建筑板块有望迎来基本面、政策面和估值的共振，建议关注行业在建筑 出海、城市更新、数字化建设、电力工程以及化债等领域的边际变化，持续看好估值处于低位、业绩稳 健的建筑央企龙头及区域龙头。 截至2025年12月10日 14点06分，A股三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数跌0.35%，深证成指涨0.14%，创业 板指跌0.23%。基建50ETF（159635）上涨0.73%，最新报价1.107元，成分股四川路桥领涨3.95%，山推 股份上涨3.83%，杭叉集团上涨2.83%，徐工机械上涨2.75%，中粮科工上涨2.71%。 从估值层面来看，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.55倍，处于近10年31.98%的 分位，与全A其他板块横向比较，估值处在相对低位。 ...

Group 1 - Infrastructure investment growth has narrowed year-on-year, with the construction sector underperforming the broader market. Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.34%, a decline of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period. The construction industry's new contract value was 21.30 trillion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, with a significant slowdown in new orders due to local fiscal pressures [3][19][23] - The eight major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) maintained stable new contract signings, but there was an increase in corporate differentiation. The overall revenue growth of these SOEs decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.5% due to various pressures including slowing infrastructure investment and prolonged repayment cycles [4][49] - Recommended investment themes include overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, power engineering, and debt resolution. The overseas contracting business completed a total of 122.33 billion USD from January to September 2025, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, with "Belt and Road" countries being the primary target [5][76][82] Group 2 - The construction sector's overall performance was weaker than the market, with the construction decoration index rising by 9.4% from early 2025 to October 29, underperforming the broader indices such as the Wind All A Index (+28.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (+20.7%) [23][27] - The construction sector's allocation ratio was 0.62% in Q3 2025, which is 0.94 percentage points lower than the industry standard allocation ratio. The total market value of public fund holdings in the construction sector decreased by 4.2% [35][39] - The eight major SOEs saw a decrease in their allocation ratios, with the top five holdings accounting for only 10.0% of the construction sector, indicating a lower concentration of holdings [39][41]