开源证券认为2025年以来基建投资和建筑新签规模持续走弱，细分板块景气度出现分化，在政府化债和企业降负债 工作的持续推进下，建筑板块有望迎来基本面、政策面和估值的共振，建议关注行业在建筑出海、城市更新、数字 化建设、电力工程以及化债等领域的边际变化，持续看好估值处于低位、业绩稳健的建筑央企龙头及区域龙头。 | | 涨跌幅 | 活性 | | 年化收益 | 可證 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159635(基建50ETF) | | 0.01 | | 33.57 | 74% | | 000300(沪深300) | 0949 | 47 | 3.46% | | -3.37% | 从估值层面来看，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.64倍，处于近10年33.21%的分位，即估值 低于近10年66.79%以上的时间，具备低位布局性价比。 近期A股市场以震荡为主，从区间表现来看，基建板块走势相对稳健，基建50ETF近15个交易日上涨1.75%，同期沪 深300指数上涨0.95% （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction and decoration industry is experiencing a slowdown in fixed asset investment and new contract signings, with a focus on potential growth areas such as overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, and power engineering [2][5]. Investment Strategy - From January to October 2025, cumulative fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment increased by 1.5%, with a sequential decline of 1.8 percentage points [2]. - New contracts in the construction industry totaled 21.30 trillion yuan from January to September 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, with a notable slowdown in the decline of new orders in the third quarter [2]. - The backlog of construction orders stood at 59.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, indicating that the decline in existing orders is less severe than that of new contracts [2]. Sector Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 6.8% from the beginning of 2025 to December 2, but underperformed compared to the broader market [2]. - The renovation and decoration service sector led the secondary market with a growth rate of 30.6% [2]. - The construction sector's allocation ratio was 0.62%, which is 0.94 percentage points lower than the industry standard [2]. Central Enterprises - The eight major central enterprises saw their new contracts remain stable in the first half of 2025, with overall revenue growth declining by 4.4% and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 7.5% [3]. - Factors such as slowing infrastructure investment growth and prolonged repayment cycles due to local fiscal pressures have impacted the revenue of these enterprises [3]. Growth Opportunities - Overseas construction saw a cumulative completion amount of 134.18 billion USD from January to October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, particularly in Belt and Road countries [4]. - Urban renewal projects are expected to be funded through various sources, with plans to start renovating 25,000 old urban communities, of which 21,700 have already commenced [4]. - Digital construction is being driven by new productivity, with a focus on comprehensive digital transformation across urban areas [4]. - The power engineering sector is anticipated to benefit from significant opportunities in water resources and environmental projects from 2025 to 2030 [4]. - Local government bond issuance has accelerated, with a total issuance of 6.49 trillion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.3% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The construction sector is expected to see a resonance of fundamentals, policies, and valuations, with a focus on marginal changes in overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, power engineering, and debt reduction [5]. - Recommended stocks include China Power Construction, China Energy Engineering, China Communications Construction, Tunnel Corporation, Metro Design, and Jianfa Heceng, particularly those with stable performance and low valuations [5].

开源证券认为2025年以来基建投资和建筑新签规模持续走弱，细分板块景气度出现分化，在政府化债和 企业降负债工作的持续推进下，建筑板块有望迎来基本面、政策面和估值的共振，建议关注行业在建筑 出海、城市更新、数字化建设、电力工程以及化债等领域的边际变化，持续看好估值处于低位、业绩稳 健的建筑央企龙头及区域龙头。 截至2025年12月10日 14点06分，A股三大指数涨跌互现，上证指数跌0.35%，深证成指涨0.14%，创业 板指跌0.23%。基建50ETF（159635）上涨0.73%，最新报价1.107元，成分股四川路桥领涨3.95%，山推 股份上涨3.83%，杭叉集团上涨2.83%，徐工机械上涨2.75%，中粮科工上涨2.71%。 从估值层面来看，基建50ETF跟踪的中证基建最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅9.55倍，处于近10年31.98%的 分位，与全A其他板块横向比较，估值处在相对低位。 ...

Group 1 - Infrastructure investment growth has narrowed year-on-year, with the construction sector underperforming the broader market. Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.34%, a decline of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period. The construction industry's new contract value was 21.30 trillion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, with a significant slowdown in new orders due to local fiscal pressures [3][19][23] - The eight major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) maintained stable new contract signings, but there was an increase in corporate differentiation. The overall revenue growth of these SOEs decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.5% due to various pressures including slowing infrastructure investment and prolonged repayment cycles [4][49] - Recommended investment themes include overseas construction, urban renewal, digital construction, power engineering, and debt resolution. The overseas contracting business completed a total of 122.33 billion USD from January to September 2025, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, with "Belt and Road" countries being the primary target [5][76][82] Group 2 - The construction sector's overall performance was weaker than the market, with the construction decoration index rising by 9.4% from early 2025 to October 29, underperforming the broader indices such as the Wind All A Index (+28.4%) and the CSI 300 Index (+20.7%) [23][27] - The construction sector's allocation ratio was 0.62% in Q3 2025, which is 0.94 percentage points lower than the industry standard allocation ratio. The total market value of public fund holdings in the construction sector decreased by 4.2% [35][39] - The eight major SOEs saw a decrease in their allocation ratios, with the top five holdings accounting for only 10.0% of the construction sector, indicating a lower concentration of holdings [39][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major construction companies including China State Construction, China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction [4][5]. Core Insights - The construction industry is transitioning from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing stock, with urban renewal efforts expected to intensify during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to an urbanization rate exceeding 70% by the end of the plan [8][11]. - Major engineering projects are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing growth, with significant infrastructure projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the New Three Gorges Navigation Channel supporting the industry [8][11]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of digitalization and industrialization in the construction sector, with AI and BIM technologies driving efficiency and quality improvements [8][32][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: High-Quality Development - The construction industry is expected to maintain a GDP contribution of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a target of 40% for prefabricated buildings by 2030 [17][19]. - The focus will be on quality and safety, with a shift towards green and sustainable practices [16][17]. Section 2: Focus on Overseas Expansion, Digitalization, and Industrialization - The global industrial transfer is expected to boost overseas infrastructure demand, particularly in Southeast Asia, where construction needs are significant [22][23]. - Chinese construction companies are leading in international contracting, with 81 firms listed among the top 250 global contractors, accounting for 24.6% of total international revenue [27][28]. - Digital transformation is becoming a key driver for efficiency, with a low penetration rate of digital technologies in the construction sector compared to developed countries [36][37]. Section 3: Urban Renewal and Major Projects - Urban renewal is a major trend, with government initiatives aimed at improving living conditions and infrastructure [52]. - The report outlines eight key tasks for urban renewal, including the renovation of old neighborhoods and the enhancement of urban infrastructure [52]. Section 4: Industrial Digitalization and Growth - The construction industry is expected to leverage digital technologies to enhance productivity and reduce costs, with AI and BIM playing significant roles [32][38]. - The adoption of construction robots is anticipated to improve efficiency significantly, with robots outperforming human labor in various tasks [41][48].