Core Viewpoint - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising into next year due to ongoing mine disruptions leading to tighter supply and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments [1][2] Group 1: Price Forecast - UBS raised its copper price forecast for March 2026 by $750/ton to $11,500/ton, with June and September targets increased by $1,000/ton to $12,000/ton and $12,500/ton respectively, and a new December 2026 target of $13,000/ton [1] - The firm adjusted its market supply deficit forecast, increasing the 2025 deficit from a previous estimate of 53,000 tons to 230,000 tons, and the 2026 deficit from 87,000 tons to 407,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - UBS highlighted that this year's mining operational disruptions, including issues at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow production recovery in Chile, and ongoing protests in Peru, underscore structural supply constraints that may persist until 2026 [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume production at the Grasberg mine by July [1] Group 3: Demand Growth - The firm projects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, primarily supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investments, and data center demand [2] - UBS stated that any weakness in copper prices should be temporary, recommending maintaining long positions in copper or employing volatility selling strategies [2]

格隆汇11月24日｜瑞银上周五在一份报告中称，预计铜价将上涨至明年，因铜矿持续中断导致供应紧 张，且电气化和清洁能源投资的长期需求强劲。在其最新预测中，瑞银将2026年3月的价格预测上调了 750美元，至每吨1.15万美元，将2026年6月和9月的目标价格分别上调了1000美元，至每吨1.2万美元和 1.25万美元，并将2026年12月的新目标价格设定为每吨1.3万美元。瑞银还将2025年的市场缺口预估上调 至23万吨，高于此前的5.3万吨，并将2026年的市场缺口预估上调至40.7万吨，高于此前的8.7万吨。瑞 银表示，库存下降和持续的供应风险将使形势保持紧张。该行表示，今年的矿山中断，包括自由港·麦 克莫兰铜金公司旗下印尼Grasberg矿产的生产问题、智利产量复苏放缓以及秘鲁不断发生的抗议活动， 都突显出结构性供应紧张可能会延续到2026年。 ...