前期受北美AIDC缺电概念影响，电网板块持续走强。当前北美AI产业快速发展，市场对北美算力需求 将大幅增长已达成共识。北美官方机构此前预测未来5年数据中心累计装机量约为30-100GW的水平，而 北美AIDC实际需求可能不断超出预期。面对负荷不断增长的巨大压力，当前北美电源电网难以应对。 根据长江证券的测算，在不考虑大区电网互联带来的抵消作用下，2025-2030年美国将合计产生约 73.2GW的电力总缺口，若数据中心增长超预期，则可能产生201GW的电力总缺口。2025-2027年将是压 力最大的阶段，随着2028年有效电源预测装机的集中投运，压力将稍有缓解，但依然存在一定的电力缺 口。总体来看，未来美国缺电情况将会愈演愈烈。预计美国缺电或将会带动储能、电气设备、电网设备 等领域的出海发展。 2025年1-9月，我国变压器累计出口金额为350.92亿元，同比增长52.73%，呈现高增长态势。国内企业 凭借特高压、智能电网等大型工程积累的技术和经验，在海外市场优势明显。 今日，电网板块回调，电网ETF（561380）跌超1.5%，盘中溢价交易。 电网ETF跟踪恒生A股电网设备指数，电网设备占比超半数，覆盖电网 ...

华泰证券指出，电网设备出海逻辑仍然强势，其中非特高压主网板块业绩表现较好，主要系该赛道出海 保持高景气，叠加网内主网建设需求持续较强。配电层面，企业出海收入及订单同样保持高速增长，同 时海外市场竞争加剧。以变压器为代表的一次设备出海逻辑仍然强势，无论主网、配网，从订单及收入 来看仍然呈现高速增长态势。展望后续，高电压等级电网设备的紧缺更具备持续性。 电网设备ETF（159326）是全市场唯一跟踪中证电网设备主题指数的ETF，从申万三级行业分类上看， 指数成分股的行业分布以输变电设备、电网自动化设备、线缆部件及其他、通信线缆及配套、配电设备 为主，拥有较强的代表性。特高压权重占比高达64%，全市场最高。前十大重仓股中囊括了国电南瑞、 特变电工、思源电气、特锐德等行业龙头。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 11月7日午后，大盘翻绿，电网设备板块冲高回落，截至14点57分，全市场唯一的电网设备ETF （159326）涨超0.7%，盘中实时成交额超6亿元，持仓股中能电气涨超14%，良信股份涨停，伊戈尔、 华通线缆、万胜智能等股跟涨。 电网设备ETF（159326）已成资金"心头好"，截至11月6日，已连续9个交易日净流入 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating for power equipment and renewable energy is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The performance of the power grid equipment sector in Q3 shows significant differentiation, with non-UHV main networks outperforming UHV main networks, distribution, and electric meters [1] - The export logic remains strong, particularly for transformers and other primary equipment, with a notable increase in orders and revenue [2] - The gross margin in the distribution and electric meter segments is under pressure, but overseas expansion is enhancing profitability quality [3] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Overview - Non-UHV main networks, UHV main networks, distribution, and electric meters showed revenue growth rates of 38.2%, 5.2%, -23.6%, and -28.4% respectively [1] - The non-UHV main network's strong performance is attributed to high demand for overseas expansion and robust domestic main network construction needs [1] - Distribution segment companies are facing challenges due to domestic price reductions and weakening demand from new energy and industrial sectors [1] Export Trends - From January to September, China's transformer exports reached $6.22 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, with September alone seeing a 47% increase [2] - High-voltage switch exports also grew by 31.2% year-on-year during the same period [2] Gross Margin Analysis - The distribution and electric meter segments are experiencing noticeable gross margin declines due to price reductions and low-priced orders being fulfilled [3] - Companies like Siyuan Electric and Kehua Tech have seen gross margin improvements driven by higher overseas revenue contributions [3] - The overall expense ratio has shown a downward trend, indicating cost control efforts among companies [3] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Profit forecasts for Siyuan Electric in the non-UHV segment have been raised for 2025 and 2026, while forecasts for several companies in the UHV segment have been lowered [4][10] - Specific adjustments include a decrease in profit predictions for China XD Electric and Pinggao Electric, reflecting market conditions [4][10]