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传奇投资者:致命杠杆已转移,新一轮金融风暴正在酝酿!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-02 08:40
Core Insights - Steve Diggle, a former hedge fund manager, warns of a brewing financial storm reminiscent of the pre-2007 crisis, citing complacency and mispricing of risks in the market [1] - The newly established Vulpes AI Long/Short Fund (VAILS) aims to replicate successful strategies from the 2008 crisis while incorporating AI technology to identify high-risk assets [2] Group 1: Financial Market Conditions - Diggle identifies five key signs of an impending crisis: 1. Central bank policy constraints due to a decade of quantitative easing and pandemic-related debt accumulation, leaving global central banks unable to implement further easing [1] 2. The return of inflation driven by the reversal of globalization and protectionism disrupting supply chains [1] 3. Geopolitical conflicts posing direct threats to asset safety [1] 4. U.S. stock market bubble, with valuations at historical highs, representing two-thirds of global market capitalization [1] 5. Risks associated with unpredictable leadership in the U.S., leading to significant market volatility [1] Group 2: Fund Strategy and Operations - VAILS will employ a strategy similar to that of Artradis during the 2008 crisis, focusing on long positions in volatility and short positions in credit risk through instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) [2] - The fund aims to address the current market's lack of hedging tools, with Diggle emphasizing that the fund is not permanently bearish but tactically positioned [2] - An AI engine will be integrated into the fund's operations to analyze vast amounts of corporate data, helping to identify overvalued, fraudulent, or high-risk assets [2] - The strategy focuses on surviving during bull markets to maintain investor patience until a market correction occurs [2]