2026年伊始，全球股市在人工智能（AI）狂热的推动下高歌猛进，但市场或许正在无视一个可能让这 场派对戛然而止的巨大威胁：部分由科技投资热潮引发的通胀飙升。 去年，七大科技巨头贡献了美股市场一半的收益。在AI热潮和货币宽松预期的推动下，美国股指在 2025年实现了两位数涨幅并创下历史新高，同时也带动欧洲和亚洲股市攀升至历史峰值。 随着通胀回落（尽管仍高于美联储2%的平均目标），进一步降息的预期也提振了债券市场，为美国国 债投资者带来了五年来最好的年度表现。 展望2026年，华尔街预计美国、欧洲和日本的政府刺激浪潮以及AI繁荣预计将为全球经济增长重新注 入动力。 然而，这让基金经理们开始为通胀重新加速做准备，因为AI浪潮带来的经济增长可能促使央行结束降 息周期，从而猛踩刹车，切断涌入痴迷于AI的市场的廉价资金流。 "你需要一根刺破泡沫的针，而这很可能通过收紧货币政策来实现，"Royal London Asset Management的 多资产主管Trevor Greetham表示。他指出，虽然他目前仍持有大型科技股，但如果到2026年底全球通胀 飙升，他也不会感到惊讶。 Greetham表示，货币紧缩将降低投资 ...

12月26日，由金融界主办的"启航·2025金融年会"在北京举行。本次年会以"新开局、新动能、新征程"为主题，来自政、商、学、研等领域的100多位嘉宾、 500余家金融机构和上市公司齐聚一堂，共赴这场思想盛宴。 第二，虚拟货币，特别是数字货币加速膨胀。美国把数字货币列为战略性储备资源，这对全球的货币体系、金融体系都将是重大的挑战。 第三，中国股市已经形成了一个慢牛趋势，但美国的股市泡沫正在加速堆积，去年已经突破经济学家所讲的38000点魔咒。 第四，金融衍生品存在的潜在风险可能在某一时点或在其他金融因素叠加下产生破裂。当下，全球159个国家已经进入去美元化浪潮，美国推出稳定币与美 元进行挂钩，以对抗去美元化浪潮。国际货币体系将会发生重大调整和变化。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 在本次大会上，中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任、原总经济师陈文玲谈及了2026年乃至"十五五"期间，我们将会面临哪些国际上的"灰犀牛""黑天 鹅"等不确定事件，以及分析这类事件将会对我国经济乃至全球经济产生的冲击及影响。 陈文玲重点提及七大国际方面的风险，包括一些国家经济泡沫破裂的风险；全球货币体系 ...

当华尔街准备在乐观情绪中迎接2026年时，资深经济学家、约翰霍普金斯大学应用经济学教授史蒂夫· 汉克（Steve Hanke）表示，美国经济和市场存在两大重大问题，让他难以安睡。 "让我夜不能寐的是，美联储将无法在2026年实现其通胀目标，"这位资深经济学家兼大宗商品交易员写 道。 "至于股市，我的X博士泡沫检测器（Dr. X's Bubble Detector）已触及历史高点，这表明我们正处于泡沫 之中，"他补充提及股价走势时说道。 通胀层面，已有多项迹象显示美国物价上涨势头正再度升温。11月整体通胀数据虽低于预期，但仍远高 于美联储2%的目标。 其一，通胀可能会开始失控，超出美联储的掌控范围。 其二，美股股价高企，终将暴跌回归现实。 其次是量化紧缩终止。美联储本月结束了量化紧缩政策——该政策旨在通过抛售资产负债表中的长期国 债来收紧金融环境，是疫情后美联储遏制通胀的另一重要工具。 然后是信贷规则松绑。明年初，部分信贷规则（如银行资本要求相关规定）将被放宽。汉克表示，这将 大幅提升银行扩大货币供应量的能力，进一步加剧通胀压力。 最后是美国财政部发债。美国财政部正加大短期国债发行力度，部分用于为政府赤字融资。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry criticizes the Federal Reserve, suggesting it is an unnecessary institution that could be replaced by the Treasury, claiming that managing the Fed is "the easiest job in the world" [1][4] Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Burry expresses a "sick view" regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that it has caused significant damage over the past century [2] - He warns that any easing measures by the Fed could "kill" savers and fixed-income investors, indicating that there is currently no justification for lowering interest rates [3][4] Group 2: Potential Political Influence - Burry speculates that if Trump were to exert more control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to its "end," suggesting that such a scenario would make the Fed widely unpopular [3] - He emphasizes that the roles of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are largely interchangeable, arguing that their functions have become almost identical [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since returning to the public eye, Burry has issued warnings about a potential bubble in the U.S. stock market and has taken short positions against companies like Nvidia and Palantir [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The U.S. postponed the release of September's non - farm payrolls, which increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value. The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data will not be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data for reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials have significant differences in their recent statements, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President said there was still room for interest rate adjustment, increasing the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the U.S. proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, but some key terms were opposed by European allies, and multi - party negotiations will continue. Last week, NVIDIA's strong earnings initially supported the U.S. stock market, but then the U.S. stocks significantly corrected, and concerns about the bubble still exist. In the short term, there are a lot of long and short news in the market, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - **Ukraine - Russia Conflict**: U.S. and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress"; Zelensky said the U.S. peace plan was expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe proposed a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan. U.S. and Ukraine are discussing Zelensky's visit to the U.S. this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary said Trump was pressuring Russia to end the conflict and was confident in the progress of the peace process. Trump thought November 27 was a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement [2] 3.2 Fed's Attitude - **Interest Rate Policy**: Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term; Collins thinks it is necessary to be cautious about a December rate cut but expects further rate cuts in the future; Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is crucial; Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" with inflation still high and the labor market generally balanced [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has a direct correlation with global capital market performance. The current market dynamics are characterized by a unified beta phenomenon across global markets, closely tied to the Fed's policy stance [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The global capital markets have shown strong performance in 2025, particularly in South Korea, where the index rose by 71.18% until October. This surge is attributed to the Fed's loose monetary policy and the AI industry's growth. However, a cooling trend has been observed since October, indicating potential risks [2][4]. - **AI Industry Impact**: AI is recognized as a key driver of the fourth industrial revolution, significantly affecting traditional industries. The demand for AI chips has led to increased prices for consumer electronics chips, and rising electricity demand in the U.S. has escalated manufacturing costs, potentially leading to stagflation [1][8]. - **Liquidity and Asset Prices**: Recent fluctuations in asset prices, including cryptocurrencies and precious metals, are driven by changes in liquidity. Prior to October 2025, liquidity expansion supported asset price increases, but a shift to a stock game has resulted in volatility [6][7]. - **U.S. Stock Market Risks**: The U.S. stock market, particularly in relation to AI, is facing significant risks. The rapid expansion of AI has led to concerns about a potential bubble, especially if liquidity fails to support both emerging and traditional industries [8][11]. - **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial in determining market stability. If inflation remains high and employment data does not deteriorate significantly, the Fed may tighten policies, which could burst the stock market bubble [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Cross-Border Capital Flows**: The relationship between U.S. equities and non-U.S. equity assets is influenced by the dollar's depreciation. Even without significant dollar depreciation in 2025, non-U.S. equity assets have performed well, indicating a potential shift in capital flows [5]. - **Historical Context**: The historical context of market performance post-QE3 and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy illustrates the cyclical nature of market reactions to Fed policies [4][10]. - **Political Factors**: The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may influence economic policies and market performance, with potential implications for the Fed's approach to monetary policy [16][17]. - **China's Economic Outlook**: Factors affecting China's effective exchange rate include total factor productivity, private sector leverage, and PPI fluctuations. A potential recovery in productivity could lead to an appreciation of the yuan and a rise in the CSI 300 index [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of monetary policy, market dynamics, and geopolitical factors.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate about whether the U.S. stock market is entering a bubble phase, despite strong corporate earnings, with warnings from Wall Street executives about potential pullback risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - UBS's latest report indicates that the current market is in the early stages of a potential bubble, but has not yet reached a dangerous peak [2]. - The report highlights that technology stocks' price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are close to normal levels compared to the overall market, with better earnings revisions and growth prospects [2]. - Key indicators of a bubble are not yet present, suggesting that the market is still some distance from a true danger zone [2]. Group 2: Preconditions for Bubble Formation - UBS outlines seven preconditions for bubble formation, which could be triggered if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts align with their predictions [5]. - The conditions include: - An extended period of equities outperforming bonds, which has exceeded the necessary threshold [7]. - A narrative of "this time is different," driven by the rise of generative AI [7]. - A generational memory gap, as it has been about 25 years since the last tech bubble [7]. - Overall profits under pressure, with non-top 10 companies in the U.S. showing near-zero earnings growth [7]. - High market concentration, with current levels at historical highs [7]. - Increased retail trading activity in various regions [7]. - Loose monetary conditions, which may further ease if the Fed cuts rates as expected [7]. Group 3: Indicators of Market Peak - The report analyzes key signals that indicate a market peak from three dimensions: valuation, long-term catalysts, and short-term catalysts [8]. - Historical bubbles typically feature extreme valuations, with at least 30% of companies having P/E ratios between 45x and 73x; currently, the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have a dynamic P/E of 35x [8]. - Long-term indicators show no signs of a peak, as ICT investment as a percentage of GDP is still below 2000 levels, indicating no excessive investment [13]. - Short-term indicators also lack urgency, with no extreme mergers like those seen in 2000, and the Fed's policy stance not yet tight enough to trigger a market collapse [16]. Group 4: Lessons from the Post-TMT Era - The report reflects on the aftermath of the 2000 TMT bubble, suggesting that value may shift to non-bubble sectors during initial sell-offs [19]. - It notes the potential for "echo effects" or double-top patterns in the market [19]. - The report emphasizes that the ultimate winners in the value chain may not be the builders of infrastructure but those who leverage new technologies to create disruptive applications or key software [21].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether the U.S. stock market has entered a bubble phase is intensifying, despite strong corporate earnings. UBS's latest report indicates that the market is in the early stages of a potential bubble, but has not yet reached a dangerous peak [1]. Group 1: Indicators of Potential Bubble - UBS identified seven conditions that typically precede the formation of a market bubble. If the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts align with UBS's predictions, all seven conditions could be triggered [2]. Group 2: Signals of Market Peak - The report outlines three key signals indicating a market peak: 1. Clear overvaluation: Historical bubbles often feature extreme valuations, with at least 30% of companies having P/E ratios between 45x and 73x. Currently, the dynamic P/E ratio of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks is 35x, and equity risk premium (ERP) has not dropped to the extreme low levels seen in 2000 or 1929 [4][5]. 2. Long-term catalysts: Various long-term indicators do not show signs of a peak, such as ICT investment as a percentage of GDP being significantly lower than in 2000, and tech giants' leverage being better than during the dot-com bubble [12][14]. 3. Short-term catalysts: There are no immediate peak signals, such as extreme mergers like those seen in 2000, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance is not tight enough to trigger a market collapse [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The report highlights several market dynamics: - A strong buy-the-dip mentality exists, with stocks outperforming bonds by an annualized rate of 14% over the past decade, exceeding the 5% threshold needed to foster such sentiment [5]. - The narrative of "this time is different" is prevalent, particularly with the rise of generative AI [5]. - There is a generational memory gap, as it has been about 25 years since the last tech bubble, making new investors more susceptible to believing in a unique situation [5]. - Profit pressure is evident, as excluding the top 10 companies by market cap, the forward EPS growth for other firms is nearly zero, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble [5]. - Market concentration is at historical highs, with significant increases in retail trading activity across various regions [5]. Group 4: Lessons from the TMT Bubble - UBS reflects on the aftermath of the 2000 TMT bubble, suggesting that value may shift to non-bubble sectors during initial sell-offs, and that a "echo effect" or double-top pattern may occur. Notably, companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple saw stock price declines of 65% to 94%, taking 5 to 17 years to recover [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a well-known investor, is heavily shorting AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir, indicating a bearish outlook on the market, particularly in the tech sector, amidst concerns of overvaluation and potential market corrections [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, the S&P 500 down more than 1%, and the Dow Jones falling 0.53% [1]. - Major tech stocks faced severe sell-offs, including Tesla down over 5%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, and Palantir down nearly 8% [1]. Group 2: Burry's Short Positions - Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management has approximately 80% of its portfolio concentrated in short positions on Nvidia and Palantir, with a total nominal value of over $10 billion in put options [3]. - The put options for Palantir are valued at $912 million (equivalent to 5 million shares), while those for Nvidia are valued at $186 million [3]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation Concerns - Palantir reported a third-quarter revenue growth of 63% year-over-year, reaching $1.181 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [4]. - Despite strong earnings, analysts express concerns about Palantir's stock price being detached from its fundamentals, especially if the AI hype fades [4]. - Nvidia has become the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, raising concerns about its valuation relative to broader economic indicators [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Warnings - Several Wall Street executives, including Goldman Sachs' CEO, have warned of potential market corrections of 10% to 20% within the next 12 to 24 months due to high valuation levels [2]. - Burry's previous warnings about market bubbles and his recent social media activity suggest he believes the current AI stock frenzy may be unsustainable [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in valuations of the U.S. stock market driven by artificial intelligence (AI) shows significant bubble risks, despite AI's transformative potential [1] Group 1: AI's Potential and Market Dynamics - AI has the potential to reshape economic activities, employment structures, and the growth of intellectual capital driven by machines [1] - Investors are actively seeking to capitalize on the transformative changes brought by AI, but the impacts are not immediately visible [1] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - The surge in valuations is heavily concentrated among the "Big Seven" tech companies and broader AI-related sectors, which now account for 30% to 35% of the S&P 500's market capitalization [1] - In comparison, during the peak of the internet bubble in 2000, tech stocks represented only about 6% of the S&P 500's market value, indicating a larger scale of current bets [1] Group 3: Warning Signs of a Bubble - Investors and policymakers should be cautious of typical bubble characteristics, including steep and nearly vertical price increases [1] - Valuations are disproportionately concentrated in a few "hot" stocks within broad market indices [1] - Investor behavior is increasingly driven by the expectation of continued price increases for speculative buying, rather than being based on fundamental company logic [1]