伴随着市场的剧烈震荡，前总统特朗普将矛头直指美联储，公开要求美联储唯一的黑人女性理事丽莎·库克"立即辞职"，并指控她在2021年申请两笔房贷 时，均将房产申报为"自住房"，涉嫌欺诈。库克对此做出了异常强硬的回应，表示"不会因霸凌而辞职，正在收集证据澄清事实。"法律界人士分析指出，房 贷瑕疵需要由司法部进行刑事定罪，才能构成罢免的依据，但现任司法部长邦迪尚未对此事启动调查。这场看似突发的道德指控，实则是特朗普"拆解美联 储"计划中至关重要的一步。 华尔街的降息美梦，被一份鹰派的美联储会议纪要无情击碎。这份7月的会议记录，清晰地揭示了美联储内部的分歧与隐忧。除了沃勒和鲍曼这两位理事罕 见地同时倒戈，主张立即降息25个基点以挽救就业市场之外，绝大多数官员仍旧坚持将利率维持在4.25?%的高位。值得注意的是，这是自1993年以来，首 次出现两位官员同时反对既定方针的局面，美联储内部的裂痕由此彻底公开化。 这份纪要像一盆冰水，瞬间浇灭了此前市场对于9月降息的狂热押注。纪要公布后，科技股首当其冲，纳斯达克指数应声连续两日下跌，科技巨头们遭遇集 体血洗。英伟达在盘中一度暴跌超过3%，英特尔更是单日重挫近7%，亚马逊和苹果的 ...

Market Movements - As of August 21, U.S. stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.39%, S&P 500 futures down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.23% [1] - European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.36%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.25%, France's CAC 40 down 0.74%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.33% [1] - WTI crude oil is up 0.65% at $63.12 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.55% at $67.21 per barrel [1] Market Insights - Oak Tree Capital's Marks warns of signs of a bubble in U.S. stocks, indicating that market valuations are high, but he does not believe a correction is imminent [2] - Kansas City Fed President George states that the current moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate, with inflation risks slightly outweighing labor market risks [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests an 80% probability of a rebound for momentum stocks after a significant drop, with historical data supporting this view [2] - Bank of America notes that Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech could be a catalyst for small-cap stocks, with potential short-term impacts depending on the tone of his remarks [2] Company News - Walmart (WMT.US) reported Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, a 4.8% year-over-year increase, but adjusted EPS of $0.68 missed expectations of $0.74 [4] - Apple (AAPL.US) is set to open a new store in Bangalore, India, as part of its strategy to expand in this key growth market [5] - Meta (META.US) has paused hiring in its AI division, marking the end of a high-profile recruitment phase amid a broader organizational restructuring [5] - Brazil Potash (GRO.US) signed a 10-year take-or-pay agreement with Keytrade Fertilizantes Brasil for the sale of up to 900,000 tons of potash annually, leading to a 32% pre-market surge [6] - Bilibili (BILI.US) reported Q2 net revenue of 7.338 billion yuan, a 19.76% increase year-over-year, and achieved a net profit of 219 million yuan, reversing a loss from the previous year [6] - Miniso (MNSO.US) saw Q2 revenue grow by 23.1%, with same-store sales turning positive, while TOP TOY revenue surged by 87% [7] - Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) reported Q2 revenue of $1.7 billion, below expectations, and lowered its full-year revenue guidance from $6.1-7.1 billion to $5.6-6.3 billion [7]

橡树资本管理有限公司（Oaktree Capital Management LP）联合创始人霍华德•马克斯（Howard Marks） 警告称，尽管调整的临界点尚未到来，但美国股市仍处于泡沫的"早期阶段"。 这位不良债务投资管理公司的联席董事长在周三接受采访时说，"我当然不是在敲响警钟。关键是，现 在的资产价格很昂贵。" 他补充说，投资者上一次经历"严重市场回调"已经是16年前了。当前时期让他想起了1990年代末，当时 市场正热衷于投资科技股，导致前美联储主席格林斯潘发出了"非理性繁荣"的警告。不过，马克斯指 出，在那之后，市场又上涨了几年，科技泡沫才破裂。 当被问及美国是否仍是防御性投资的好去处时，马克斯说，这个国家就像"一辆价格高昂的好车"。 他说，世界其他地区没有同样的活力或理想的监管环境。美国仍然是世界上最好的投资地，尽管其基本 的投资环境已经"有点恶化了"。 "人们已经不习惯去思考市场回调了，"马克斯说，并指出"均值回归是非常有可能的。"他说，一些科技 股相对于历史而言，"估值相当高"。 马克斯在上周发布的一份备忘录中强调，自美国总统特朗普在4月份宣布关税以来，股市已进入"释压性 反弹"。但他写道， ...

"我当然不是在敲响警钟，关键是市场价格确实很昂贵。"橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯警告，美股估值处于历史高位，特别是美股总市值与GDP之 比创下纪录。他将当前市场与1990年代末的"非理性繁荣"时期类比，提醒市场回调风险虽未迫近却真实存在，并建议投资者转向防御策略以应对潜在波 动。 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯警告，尽管触发市场大幅回调的关键因素尚未出现，但美股估值已然偏高，并显现出泡沫"早期阶段"的迹象。 "我当然不是在敲响警钟。关键是市场价格确实很昂贵，" 这位著名的不良债务投资人8月20日周三在媒体采访时说道。 霍华德认为，相对于历史水平，一些科技股的估值已经亮起红灯。一个关键的估值指标让他感到不安，即美国上市公司总市值占美国国内生产总值 （GDP）之比，也被称之为"巴菲特指标"，目前正处于历史最高点。 他进一步分析称，由于近年来大量公司通过收购被私有化，而其他公司则推迟了上市计划，这一指标的实际情况可能比表面看起来"更令人担忧"。这意 味着，当前股市的估值压力可能被低估了。 Buffett Indicular = $65.47T$\$30.15T$\$30.15T$ 而市场需要为当前"膨胀的估值 ...

Group 1 - Howard Marks warns that despite the absence of key factors triggering a significant market correction, U.S. stock valuations are already high and show signs of an "early stage" bubble [1] - A critical valuation metric, the ratio of total market capitalization of U.S. listed companies to U.S. GDP, known as the "Buffett Indicator," is currently at a historical high of 217%, raising concerns about overvaluation [6] - Marks emphasizes that the current market's inflated valuations need reasonable support, and investors have not experienced a "real market correction" in 16 years, leading to a potential underestimation of valuation pressures [1][2] Group 2 - The current market environment reminds Marks of the late 1990s when enthusiasm for tech stocks led to Alan Greenspan's famous warning about "irrational exuberance," suggesting that the current upward trend may still have room to continue [2] - Based on his analysis, Marks advises a defensive investment strategy, describing the U.S. market as "an expensive good car," indicating that while the investment environment has slightly deteriorated, it remains the best global investment destination [7]

二、通胀火山随时喷发！关税火药桶引信嘶嘶响 美联储纪要直指 "关税是通胀定时炸弹" ！特朗普放风对半导体加税300%，芯片成本飙涨将引爆电子产品、汽车全线涨价。更致命的是，7月PPI环比暴增 0.9%，上游价格压不住，消费端通胀回潮只差临门一脚！ 家人们，美联储昨夜上演史诗级内讧！沃勒和鲍曼两大理事拍桌反对维持利率，30年来首次双理事倒戈逼宫鲍威尔！这哪是政策分歧？分明是政治镰刀 砍向央行独立性！二十年财经老炮儿三句话点透要害： 一、政治博弈撕破脸！特朗普的影子在投票席晃动 沃勒与鲍曼全是特朗普亲提名，两人联手逼降息25基点，明面喊"救就业"，暗地递"投名状"！特朗普早放话"鲍威尔滚蛋"，甚至密谋11人接班名单，美联 储主席宝座已沦为政治角斗场。 三、估值泡沫一戳就破！橡树资本拉响"核弹级警报" 橡树资本马克斯怒吼："美股已处泡沫初期！" 标普500市盈率冲上历史高位，巴菲特指标爆表，科技股估值比肩1999年互联网泡沫前夜。但致命的是—— 劳动力数据塌方：5-6月就业下修25万人，经济根基早被掏空！ ⚠️ 终极预警：鲍威尔明晚杰克逊霍尔讲话，若放鸽＝短线狂欢；若鹰派＝血洗开场！记住：中长线玩的是定力，别被政治 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with three additional cuts anticipated due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and concerns surrounding Trump's latest Federal Reserve appointments [2] - The poor non-farm payroll data for July, along with significant downward revisions for May and June, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to increased recession fears and uncertainty regarding trade policies [2][3] - Trump's push for substantial rate cuts aims to reduce U.S. debt risks and stimulate exports, but such cuts could lead to high inflation, a depreciating dollar, and increased import prices, complicating the economic landscape [3][4] Group 2 - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in September and the fourth quarter is higher, but the probability of three cuts remains uncertain unless employment data worsens significantly [4] - The strength of the U.S. stock market is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as evidenced during the subprime and COVID-19 crises [4][5] - High interest rates from the Federal Reserve are currently restraining inflation and suppressing stock market bubbles, while also attracting international arbitrage funds, thus maintaining liquidity in the U.S. market [5]

Group 1 - Marko Kolanovic, former chief strategist at JPMorgan, warns that the U.S. stock market is experiencing an expanding bubble driven by the excessive influence of large tech stocks [1] - Kolanovic highlights that the significant rise in valuations distorts the true strength of the market, with some tech giants' stock prices inflating the overall market capitalization [1] - He points out that when the market capitalization of major tech companies exceeds that of entire industry groups or major country indices, it indicates a nearing bubble peak [1] Group 2 - Microsoft recently surpassed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, becoming the second company to reach this milestone after Nvidia [1] - Kolanovic cautions that the concentrated upward trend in stock prices may not be sustainable, as the market is increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals [1] - Analysts from Seeking Alpha share similar views, indicating that the S&P 500 index is highly valued, with the Shiller P/E ratio exceeding 37, approaching levels seen during the 2000 internet bubble [2]

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing heightened speculative behavior and rising leverage levels, leading to accumulated bubble risks [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs indicates that speculative trading activity is at historical highs, only surpassed by the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1][2] - Deutsche Bank warns that margin debt has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, with an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace since late 1999 or mid-2007 [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America highlights that loose monetary policy and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to increased bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to drop further [1][4] - The increase in speculative trading is reflected in the rising trading volumes of unprofitable stocks and those with high valuation multiples, particularly among major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [2][3] - The potential for a widening of high-yield credit spreads by 80 to 120 basis points is anticipated due to the rapid growth of margin debt [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs. The Dow Jones fell by 316.38 points, a decrease of 0.70%, closing at 44,693.91 points. The Nasdaq rose by 37.94 points, an increase of 0.18%, closing at 21,057.96 points, while the S&P 500 gained 4.44 points, up 0.07%, closing at 6,363.35 points [1] - In the European market, the DAX 30 index increased by 71.52 points, or 0.30%, closing at 24,288.62 points. The FTSE 100 rose by 74.85 points, or 0.83%, closing at 9,136.34 points, while the CAC 40 index fell by 32.15 points, a decrease of 0.41%, closing at 7,818.28 points [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.59%, while the KOSPI index increased by 0.21% and the Indonesian Composite Index gained 0.83% [3] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased slightly to 217,000, down by 4,000 from the previous value, and below the Dow Jones estimate of 227,000. The number of continuing claims remained stable, increasing by 4,000 to 1.955 million [1] - U.S. new home sales in June rose slightly to an annualized rate of 627,000, up from 623,000 in May, but below the expected 645,000. Year-over-year, June new home sales decreased by 6.6% [6] Company News - Intel reported Q2 revenue of $12.86 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $11.92 billion. The company announced a significant reduction in chip factory investment and expects Q3 revenue midpoint of $13.1 billion, higher than the analyst average estimate of $12.65 billion [10] - Alphabet's revenue surpassed expectations, contributing to a significant increase in the company's market value, which has risen by over $1 trillion since the beginning of 2023, resulting in CEO Sundar Pichai's net worth exceeding $1 billion [11] - Chevron is regaining its ability to extract oil in Venezuela, following discussions between Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. The details of the agreement remain unclear, but it is noted that the Maduro government will not receive any royalties or taxes from this arrangement [12] Analyst Ratings - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Alphabet (GOOG.US) from $200 to $215 [13]