2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.35%，英国富时100指数跌0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨0.39%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.05%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24.710.61 | 24,735.62 | 24,599.50 | +87.02 | +0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | 9,520.80 | 9.531.85 | 9.495.15 | -28.07 | -0.29% | | 法国CAC40 | 8.091.86 | 8,094.58 | 8.053.67 | +31.73 | +0.39% | | ■ 欧洲斯托克50 | 5,652.45 | 5,665.15 | 5,641.15 | +2.72 | +0.05% | 盘前市场动向 1. 10月9日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.13%，标普500指数期货涨0.04%，纳指期货 跌0.04%。 | = US 30 | 46,660.30 | 46,700.70 | 46,541.50 | +58.50 | +0.13% ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 36% since its low in April, raising concerns about a potential market bubble as valuations reach levels comparable to previous "overheated" periods [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has remained below its long-term average, indicating a period of relative calm in the derivatives market, despite rising tensions among institutional investors [1] - The recent increase in the VIX, breaking above 17, signals growing concerns among institutional investors about the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally [1] Group 2 - Stocks benefiting from AI, such as Oracle (ORCL.US) and AMD (AMD.US), have driven the U.S. stock market higher, while consumer stocks and perceived AI "losers" like Salesforce (CRM.US) have seen declines, resulting in a narrow market breadth [2] - Derivatives traders are increasing protective positions ahead of earnings reports from major tech companies, with analysts warning that disappointing results could lead to a lack of fundamental support for the current market rally [2] - A slight reduction in enthusiasm for AI stocks could trigger a potential 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, according to analysts [2] Group 3 - It is suggested that purchasing insurance on the Nasdaq 100 index may be wiser than on the S&P 500 due to the higher volatility of the Nasdaq [3] - There are numerous exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available for investors who prefer not to trade derivatives directly, which can provide similar protective strategies [3] - Allocating funds for hedging costs is advised, as a strong focus on AI stocks in April has led to underperformance [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 随着美股大涨，投资者有很多理由感到高兴，但华尔街的一些人却担心，美股在2025年的涨势可能已是 强弩之末。 这轮涨势也已扩展到那些有望从更低借贷成本中受益的、遭受重创的股票，追踪美国小公司的罗素2000 指数最近收于自2021年以来的首个历史最高点。 债券市场的压力也已缓解，更多降息的前景帮助提振了政府债券的价格。据Tradeweb称，这已将作为个 人和公司借贷成本关键基准的10年期美国国债收益率推低至4.14%，低于6月底的水平。公司债券也已 反弹，投资者为持有公司债券而非无风险国债所要求的额外回报缩减至几十年来的最低水平。 然而，一些人担心，今年标普500指数创下的28次纪录，正在激起那种涨势结束前通常会出现的泡沫。 例如，散户正在推动一波类似2021年的投机浪潮。据道琼斯市场数据，房地产科技平台、新一类模因股 的代表Opendoor Technologies今年已飙升413%，并一度占到整个美国股市单日交易量的13%。 另一个担忧是：特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）的复活。SPAC是一家空壳公司，它筹集资金并在证券交易 所交易，其唯一目的是与一家私营 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500's Shiller Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has surpassed 40 for the first time since 2000, indicating a potential market bubble [1] - Historical data shows that when the CAPE exceeds 25, it enters a phase of "irrational exuberance," with the CAPE reaching 27.6 in May 2007 before the global financial crisis [1] - Investment director Russ Mould from AJ Bell noted that U.S. stock valuations are among the top 10% historically, suggesting that the market appears expensive compared to historical averages [1][2] Group 2 - David Rosenberg's research indicates that when the CAPE exceeds 35, the S&P 500 has shown negative returns over various future time frames, making it a critical threshold for investors [2] - The table provided shows that the one-year forward return for the S&P 500 is -1.1% when the CAPE is above 35, contrasting with positive returns at lower CAPE levels [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that stock prices are relatively high, indicating that the Fed is monitoring the financial environment closely [3]

北京时间9月23日凌晨，美股三大指数全线上涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.14%，纳指涨0.7%，标普500指数涨0.44%，美国三大股指续创收盘新高。 大型科技股多数上涨，甲骨文涨超6%，苹果涨超4%。英伟达涨近4%，报183.61美元/股，续创历史新高，公司总市值升至4.46万亿美元。特斯拉最新股价 报440.37美元/股，涨3.36%，盘中创逾8个月新高，市值约为1.47万亿美元。亚马逊、Meta跌超1%。 | 文具(APPLE) | 256.262 | 4.38% | | --- | --- | --- | | US AAPL | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 440.370 | 3.36% | | US TSLA | | | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 774.890 | -0.45% | | US META | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 175.846 | -0.47% | | US NVDA | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 514.010 | -0.76% | | US MSFT | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | 252.740 | -0. ...

北京时间9月23日凌晨，美股三大指数全线上涨，截至发稿，道琼斯指数涨0.06%，纳斯达克指数涨0.28%，标普500指数涨0.16%。 特斯拉股价创逾八个月新高 特斯拉最新股价报440.37美元/股，涨3.36%，盘中创逾八个月新高，市值约为1.47万亿美元。值得注意的是，本月特斯拉股价涨幅已超30%。 9月2日，特斯拉在其官方微信公众号上发布了"秘密宏图"第四篇章。在"宏图4.0"发布之际，马斯克重申了机器人业务在特斯拉的战略地位。他表示，FSD 和Optimus的规模化将是最为重要的事项，因为未来特斯拉约80%的价值将来自Optimus机器人。 根据特斯拉当地时间9月5日发布的财务文件，马斯克的一项10000亿美元巨额薪酬计划浮出水面。 大型科技股跌多涨少，截至发稿，苹果涨4.38%，特斯拉涨3.36%，谷歌跌0.78%，微软跌0.76%，脸书跌0.45%，亚马逊跌1.05%，英伟达跌0.47%。 | 文果(APPLE) | 256.262 | 4.38% | | --- | --- | --- | | US AAPL | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 440.370 | 3.36% | | US ...

每经编辑｜金冥羽 北京时间9月23日凌晨，美股三大指数全线上涨，截至发稿，道琼斯指数涨0.06%，纳斯达克指数涨0.28%，标普500指数涨0.16%。 大宗商品方面，原油下跌，黄金飙涨，续创历史新高。 特斯拉股价创逾八个月新高 特斯拉最新股价报440.37美元/股，涨3.36%，盘中创逾八个月新高，市值约为1.47万亿美元。值得注意的是，本月特斯拉股价涨幅已超30%。 9月2日，特斯拉在其官方微信公众号上发布了"秘密宏图"第四篇章。在"宏图4.0"发布之际，马斯克重申了机器人业务在特斯拉的战略地位。他表示，FSD 和Optimus的规模化将是最为重要的事项，因为未来特斯拉约80%的价值将来自Optimus机器人。 根据特斯拉当地时间9月5日发布的财务文件，马斯克的一项10000亿美元巨额薪酬计划浮出水面。 该计划显示，如果特斯拉在未来十年内达到某些运营上的里程碑，马斯克将获得12批股票，共计4.23亿股。 假设股票数量保持不变，按照当前股价计算， 最大潜在价值约为9750亿美元（约合人民币近7万亿元）。 而马斯克也将拥有其长期追求的25%的投票权。 大型科技股跌多涨少，截至发稿，苹果涨4.38%，特斯拉涨3 ...

重磅收购引爆 北京时间9月22日晚间，美股开盘后，Metsera股价大幅飙升，盘初一度暴涨超63%，截至22:30，涨幅达62.94%。 | 54.292+ | 最 盲 | 54.460 今 开 | 52.591 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +20.972 +62.94% | 最 最 低 | 52.260 昨 收 | 33.320 | | 成交额 | 4.74亿 市盈率TTM | 亏损 总市值 · 57.04亿 | | 超级赛道突传重磅收购。 受美国医药巨头辉瑞重金收购的消息刺激，美国减肥药物开发商Metsera股价大幅拉升，盘初一度暴涨超62%。有分析指出，这意 味着辉瑞将强势回归减肥药赛道，其通过收购Metsera，有望快速获得成熟的药物管线和临床数据，避免从零开始的漫长研发周 期。 美股市场整体维持窄幅震荡格局，三大指数盘初小幅下挫后，集体翻红。值得注意的是，在美股不断刷新历史高点的背景下，有 华尔街机构警告称，最近的美股涨势与20世纪90年代末的科技泡沫有些相似。即使美股上市公司的盈利继续改善，但目前的估值 水平已经过高了。 有消息称，辉瑞公司已接近达成一项交易，计划以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the potential for a market correction in the U.S. stock market due to signs of economic slowdown and overvaluation in AI-related stocks [1][10][11] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer spending growth at approximately half of the average level seen in recent years [8][10] - The concentration of market capitalization among the "seven giants" in the AI sector has reached about 35% of the S&P 500, indicating a level of market concentration risk six times greater than that seen during the peak of the internet bubble in March 2000 [10][11] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to act cautiously regarding interest rate adjustments, influenced by initial signs of weakness in the labor market and external factors like tariffs [4][6] - There is a possibility of a moderate reduction in policy interest rates, but the extent will depend on future data performance [5][6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from actions taken by the Trump administration regarding Fed officials [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing weakness, with major indices declining, particularly in September, which historically has been the weakest month for stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the last trading day of August, major indices fell, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and Nvidia and chip stocks declining more than 3% [1]. - The S&P 500 index has risen 17% since early May, reaching a valuation of 22 times expected earnings, comparable to the late internet bubble [4]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Challenges - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has a 56% chance of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%, and this probability increases to 58% in presidential election years [3]. - September is expected to bring significant macroeconomic challenges, including key non-farm payroll reports and inflation data, along with a Federal Reserve meeting to decide on interest rates [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are facing bubble risks as hedge funds have reached an 80th percentile in stock exposure, indicating overextended market positioning [4]. - There is an anticipated reduction in buying support as pension funds and mutual funds will rebalance portfolios, potentially leading to increased selling pressure [4][5]. - Retail investor activity is expected to slow down in September, which is typically a low participation month for retail investors [5]. Group 4: Volatility and Uncertainty - September and October are historically the months with the highest stock market volatility, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) typically hovering around 20 during this period [8]. - There is a growing caution among traders regarding downside risks, as indicated by the rising costs of put options [8]. - Policy uncertainty is heightened with the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and potential economic data that could influence interest rate decisions [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Analysts suggest that despite the current volatility, investors should consider increasing stock holdings, viewing potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities [9].