Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SR509 contract of sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, and there is support at the price of 5600. In the long - term, the global sugar supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the SR2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range. Follow - up data such as UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Supply - **Brazil Production**: - The 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production was 4017 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to the previous season, with a decline of 5.3%. As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25%. The precipitation in the first half of June was relatively high, affecting the crushing progress. The sugar - to - cane ratio continued to rise, offsetting the impact of the decline in crushing volume and sugar content. The recent precipitation will affect the raw sugar price. The 2025/26 production is expected to increase, with an estimated output of about 4200 tons [44][45][46]. - As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative cane input in the central - southern region was 20619.8 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.00%. The cumulative sugar - to - cane ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25% [53]. - As of July 11, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.38%, and ethanol had an advantage in sales. The ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.78 cents per pound, and the ICE raw sugar settlement price was 16.56 cents per pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.78 cents per pound over the ethanol - converted sugar price, which continued to decline compared to the previous week [68]. - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of July were 136.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.88 tons, a decline of 21.66%. As of the week of July 9, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 368.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.96 tons, an increase of 1.96% [87]. - As of June 30, Brazil's sugar inventory was 401.6657 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years, but the subsequent inventory accumulation pattern was obvious [84]. - **India and Thailand Production**: - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is estimated to be about 2610 - 2620 tons. The end - of - year inventory is expected to be 520 - 530 tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, with an estimated output of about 3500 tons [86]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1004.18 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous year. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to continue to increase slightly, with MitrPhol Group estimating 1150 tons and USDA estimating 1026 tons [93]. - **Global Production**: - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season was still in a loose pattern but tightened marginally compared to the previous period. In the 2025/26 season, the supply is expected to turn loose. Some institutions predict a supply surplus, such as Czarnikow predicting a 750 - ton surplus, Datagro predicting a 153 - ton surplus, and Green Pool predicting a 115 - ton surplus [96][97]. Domestic Supply - **Production**: - The 2024/25 domestic sugar - making season ended on May 23. The total sugar production in the season was 1116.21 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.89 tons, an increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152.1 tons, an increase of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [108][113]. - In Guangxi, the 2024/25 sugar production was 646.50 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 tons. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 tons, and the sales rate was 79.51%, 6.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year [113]. - **Import**: - The in - quota import volume is 194.5 tons per year, with a 15% tariff, and the out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, the imported sugar was 42 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 106 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25 tons. From the beginning of the 2024/25 season to the end of June, the cumulative imported sugar was 251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65 tons. The out - of - quota import profit window opened earlier, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter [128]. - Since 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder has been restricted. In May 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder (tax number 1702.90, 2106.906) was 6.43 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 tons. The import of goods under 170290 remained at a low level, while the import of goods under 2106906 increased significantly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [143]. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: - The peak demand seasons for sugar are the summer cold - drink and ice - cream consumption season and the Spring Festival stocking season. After the Spring Festival, the consumption is in the off - season, but the sugar sales data from February to April were higher than in previous years, mainly due to the transfer of some sugar factory inventories to third - party inventories. As of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.68%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a 6.29 - percentage - point increase in the sales rate compared to the same period last year [150]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 2025, the national industrial inventory was 304.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 tons. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the industrial inventory was 132.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 tons [153].

Core Insights - Weak demand has raised alarms, leading to a significant reduction in India's sugar consumption forecast, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The potential for a turnaround in white sugar price trends remains uncertain amidst these changes [1] Group 1: Demand and Consumption - India's sugar consumption forecast has been drastically lowered due to weak demand [1] - This decline in consumption is expected to impact the overall sugar market significantly [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - A new supply-demand landscape is emerging in the sugar industry, influenced by the changes in India's consumption patterns [1] - The industry is closely monitoring how these shifts will affect white sugar prices moving forward [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].