Group 1: Report General Information - Report type: Sugar futures daily report [1] - Date of issue: March 26, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - SR2605 contract closed at 5,465 yuan/ton today, up 0.59% from the previous trading day, showing a slight upward trend [2] - The trading volume was 264,000 lots and the open interest was 318,000 lots, with the market trading activity increasing compared to yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The spot price in Rizhao is 5,650 yuan/ton, and in Kunming is 5,320 yuan/ton. The sales area price is higher than the production area price, indicating relatively stable demand in the sales area [4] Group 4: Influencing Factors - In March, which is in the middle and late stages of the sugar - crushing season, new sugar supply is gradually increasing, but inventory pressure is relatively limited [5] - Spring is the traditional consumption off - season, but the expectation of the summer consumption peak season is gradually increasing [5] - Domestic demand is stable, and the inventory consumption rhythm during the transition from the consumption off - season to the peak season will affect price trends [6] - International oil prices remain high, with Brent crude oil futures breaking through $100 per barrel, which supports the production cost of sugar [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - Sugar prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Factors such as sufficient supply, consumption off - season, and large import profits suppress prices, while cost support and inventory decline provide some support [7] - Upside risks include abnormal weather - induced production cuts in major producing areas, tightened import policies, better - than - expected consumption recovery, and a sharp rise in international sugar prices [7] - Downside risks include a significant increase in imports, continued weak consumption, and intensified competition from substitutes [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a strong trend due to high international oil prices and major sugar - producing countries' downward revisions of sugar production expectations. Domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly, considering the low current sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices. The trading strategies include going long on Zhengzhou sugar at low prices and selling high, going long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and selling put options [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,485 with a rise of 24 (0.44%), trading volume of 105,506 (a decrease of 12572), and an open interest of 272,971 (an increase of 9119); SR01 closed at 5,627 with a rise of 26 (0.46%), trading volume of 7,322 (an increase of 1136), and an open interest of 29,566 (an increase of 2325); SR05 closed at 5,463 with a rise of 34 (0.63%), trading volume of 264,326 (an increase of 1405), and an open interest of 317,898 (a decrease of 774) [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions vary. For example, the price in Liuzhou is 5480, in Kunming is 5325, in Wuhan is 5790, etc. The price in Kunming increased by 5, while others remained unchanged. The basis in different regions also varies, such as 17 in Liuzhou, - 138 in Kunming [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between SR05 - SR01 is - 164 (an increase of 8), the spread between SR09 - SR05 is 22 (a decrease of 10), and the spread between SR09 - SR01 is - 142 (a decrease of 2) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the quota - within price is 4376, the out - of - quota price is 5571, with a spread of - 91 compared to Liuzhou and 79 compared to Rizhao. For Thai imports, the quota - within price is 4213, the out - of - quota price is 5358, with a spread of 122 compared to Liuzhou and 292 compared to Rizhao [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: On March 25, 2026, India's Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 is 2.3 million tons, 50,000 tons less than the same period last year but 50,000 tons more than the previous month. The sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 25/26 sugar - making season ended on March 17, with a final output of 685,000 tons, 21,500 tons more than the previous year but 15,000 tons less than expected. In India's Bijnor region, some sugar mills are expected to finish crushing by the end of March due to a decline in sugarcane production [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be less than expected, and global sugar production expectations for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons have been revised downwards, supporting international sugar prices. Domestically, the sugar supply is under pressure as the domestic sugar is in the peak crushing period and the production is likely to increase significantly this season. However, considering the low sugar prices and the narrowing gap between domestic and international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to follow slightly [8] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be trend - strong, so it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. Arbitrage: Go long on ICE sugar and short on Zhengzhou sugar. Options: Sell put options [8][13] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spread data of sugar futures contracts [10][15][18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, March 23, 2026 [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price of 5,482, up 13 (0.24%), trading volume of 162,113, up 50,772, open interest of 243,165, up 8,798 [3] - SR01: Closing price of 5,620, up 24 (0.43%), trading volume of 9,454, up 4,626, open interest of 23,094, up 2,913 [3] - SR05: Closing price of 5,453, up 14 (0.26%), trading volume of 402,573, up 54,949, open interest of 340,678, down 13,362 [3] Spot Market - Prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,500 (up 30), Kunming 5,330 (up 15), Wuhan 5,790 (up 20), Nanning 5,490 (up 30), Rizhao 5,650 (up 10), Xi'an 5,940 (up 20) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 47, Kunming -123, Wuhan 337, Nanning 37, Rizhao 197, Xi'an 487 [3] Inter - Month Spreads - SR05 - SR01 spread: -167, down 10; SR09 - SR05 spread: 29, down 1; SR09 - SR01 spread: -138, down 11 [3] Import Profits - Brazilian imports: Quota - in price 5,474, with a spread of 26 compared to Liuzhou and -21 compared to the futures market [3] - Thai imports: Quota - in price 5,391, with a spread of 109 compared to Liuzhou and 62 compared to the futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - As of March 22, 2026, 23 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 season, 48 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 225,000 tons, 310,000 tons less than last year [5] - Spot prices in major producing areas are generally stable, with average trading volume [6] - In 2025, Russia's sugar exports to Uzbekistan reached 417,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons. Since the beginning of 2026, sugar exports have exceeded 80,000 tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year [8] Logical Analysis - Internationally, the sugar production increase in India this season is likely to be lower than expected, and global sugar production forecasts for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons have been downgraded, supporting international sugar prices [9] - Domestically, the sugar production in the current season is likely to increase significantly, and the large import volume from January to February has a negative impact on the market. However, considering the low sugar price and the narrowing of the domestic - international price gap, domestic sugar prices are expected to rise slightly [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [10] - Arbitrage: Hold off [16] - Options: Sell put options [16] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou sugar spot price, price spreads, and basis for different contract months [12][18][20][24][25][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market in Guangxi had lower sales rates in February 2026 compared to the same period last year, with higher monthly sugar production and lower sales. The overall industrial inventory increased year - on - year. However, due to external factors and the current sugar price being near the cost, the medium - to - long - term price center is expected to move up [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5416 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 413,877 hands, a decrease of 292 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 122,615 hands, a decrease of 3,586 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 684, and the import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,100 yuan/ton. The import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,019 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,195 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,090 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Nanning was 5,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The difference between the import price of Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 215 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports in the month were 222.97 million tons. The difference between the import price of Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 1,391 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume of sugar was 320 million tons, and the cumulative import volume was 492 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 155.06 million tons, an increase of 66.58 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 53.2 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 402.9 million tons, an increase of 208.71 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 98.41 million tons, an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar was 228.74 million tons, and the monthly production volume of soft drinks was 1,342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 12.25%, and that of at - the - money put options was also 12.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.22%, a decrease of 0.75%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.08% [2] Industry News - The Guangdong Sugar Industry Association announced that as of the end of February 2026 in the 25/26 sugar - making period, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 4.8961 million tons (compared to 5.1435 million tons in the same period last year), the sugar production volume was 496,700 tons (compared to 529,800 tons last year), the sugar yield was 10.14% (compared to 10.30% last year), the sales volume was 291,000 tons (compared to 386,100 tons last year), the inventory was 205,700 tons (compared to 143,700 tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 58.59% (compared to 72.88% last year). By the end of February, 4 sugar mills had stopped production. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.13 cents or 0.90% on Wednesday, closing at 14.25 cents per pound [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.9923 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 891,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 35.25%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.50 percentage points. In February, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.6223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons, and the single - month sugar sales were 441,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,700 tons. The industrial inventory was 3.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 375,200 tons [2] Prompt Attention - No information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the sugar market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and international and domestic market conditions, with a trend strength of 1 for sugar, indicating a neutral - slightly positive view [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 13.92 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.03; the mainstream spot price is 5,340 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5,324 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 39. The 59 spread is - 11 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the 91 spread is - 129 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 7; the mainstream spot basis is 16 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 39 [1] Macro and Industry News - As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of exports, on top of the previously approved 1.5 million tons. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 4.03 million tons (-790,000 tons), and the sugar production rate was 12.05%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points. Attention should be paid to China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in production areas [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), with a cumulative sugar sales rate of 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points). As of the end of December in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons (+310,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and there was a shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season. As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of January 31, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 19.31 million tons (+2.78 million tons). As of February 15, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 6.84 million tons (-350,000 tons) [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is 1, with the value range of [-2, 2] for integers, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,185, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 16,144, down 1384, open interest 103,859, up 2180 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,296, down 7, down 0.13%, volume 128, down 102, open interest 838, up 28 [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,168, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 190,426, down 9709, open interest 472,603, up 4628 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5330 (down 10), Kunming 5155 (down 10), Wuhan 5630 (unchanged), Nanning 5300 (down 10), Bayuquan 5460 (down 70), Rizhao 5415 (down 40), Xi'an 5760 (unchanged) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 162, Kunming -13, Wuhan 462, Nanning 132, Bayuquan 292, Rizhao 247, Xi'an 592 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -128, up 3; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -111, up 3 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 4046, out - of - quota price 5125, spread with Liuzhou 205, spread with Rizhao 290, spread with futures 171 [3] - Thailand import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4098, out - of - quota price 5192, spread with Liuzhou 138, spread with Rizhao 223, spread with futures 104 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - Brazil exported 173.76 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 10.86 million tons. In January 2025, the export volume was 206.22 million tons, with a daily average of 9.37 million tons [5] - As of January 24, 2026, in the 2025/26 crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, crushing 2489 million tons of sugarcane and producing 232.9 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 26.6 million tons compared to the same period of the previous season [5] - In Yunnan, 2 more sugar mills started operation on January 27, 2026, and 1 more is expected to start this week. As of now, 47 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 crushing season in Yunnan, 2 more than the same period last year [5] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to higher - than - expected growth, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodities, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestic market: China's sugar production is at its peak, and the output is likely to increase significantly this season. In 2025, China imported 491.88 million tons of sugar, an increase of 56.22 million tons year - on - year. The supply pressure is obvious, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. But considering the low price and cost support, the decline space is limited [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to fluctuate due to supply pressure above and cost support below [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads [13][18][20][22][24][26]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily sugar report dated January 15, 2026, focusing on the sugar market [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range for domestic sugar. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9] Group 4: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,291, down 13 (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 14,823 (down 14,574) and an open interest of 85,880 (up 746) - SR01 closed at 5,295, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 1,151 (up 1,105) and an open interest of 6,786 (down 1,150) - SR05 closed at 5,280, down 19 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 162,483 (down 66,399) and an open interest of 425,271 (down 3,694) [3] Spot Market - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,505, 5,345, 5,810, 5,430, 5,700, and 5,960 respectively. The price in Kunming dropped by 25, and that in Xi'an dropped by 20 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01 spread was - 15, SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 4 [3] Import Profit - For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 3,945, the out - of - quota price was 5,009, the spread with Liuzhou was 496, the spread with Rizhao was 691, and the spread with the futures was 286. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 3,995, the out - of - quota price was 5,074, the spread with Liuzhou was 431, the spread with Rizhao was 626, and the spread with the futures was 221 [3] Group 5: Market Research Important Information - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota in China was 221.61 million tons, an increase of 128.23 million tons year - on - year, the second - highest in the past five years [5] - On January 15, the spot sugar prices in major producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - Due to the continuous decline in sugar prices, it is expected that the beet planting area in the EU will decrease by about 7% - 8% this year, which may help the regional and global sugar prices rebound [7] Logical Analysis - Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is gradually entering the harvest stage, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease. Most of the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in the production - increasing cycle. India's production may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. It is expected that the US sugar price will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, and the cost of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota is between 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, which provides some support for sugar prices. However, due to the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/2026 period, there is significant pressure on the upper - range oscillation platform of sugar prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts related to sugar market data, such as monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of sugar in different regions and periods [11][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar main contract 05 has entered a short - term adjustment mode, with support around 5200, and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][7] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX 370 tons, Czarnikow 740 tons, and DATAGRO 100 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 88.3 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.16 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 44 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 9 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.82 tons [4][7] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5360, with a basis of 103 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 79.14 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 tons as global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [29] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane planting area, sugar - beet planting area, sugar - cane yield per unit area, sugar - beet yield per unit area, sugar production, and sugar imports are expected to change. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports 5 million tons, consumption 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [31] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [34] 5. Position Data - No information provided

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, resulting in the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The pricing of the domestic 01 contract will approach the Guangxi price, and the 05 contract may decline to a very low price due to increased supply pressure [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to continue the game around 15.2 cents, with limited upside potential in the near - term [2]. - The long - term structure of Zhengzhou sugar shows a downward trend, with the 05 contract being continuously suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The focus of market trading is the supply - demand difference between domestic and international markets. The key contradictions affecting sugar prices include the final pricing of the domestic 01 and 05 contracts and whether the international market can regain stability at 15 cents [1][2]. - The 01 contract is stronger than the 05 contract because of the higher spot price. The 05 contract has greater pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future [1]. - The international raw sugar price has rebounded to above 15 cents, but the upside is limited as positive factors mainly affect the far - month contracts [2]. - The SR2501 contract is approaching the delivery month, and its price is mainly based on the Guangxi new sugar price. The far - month contracts show a discount structure due to expected production increases [4][7]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a downward trend, with the 05 contract being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. - Recommended strategies include the basis strategy of buying 01 and shorting the spot, and the spread strategy of going long on 01 and shorting 05 or 03 [9]. - Past strategies' performance includes stop - losses, entries, exits, and profit - taking [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5500, with a current volatility of 6.02% and a historical percentile of 2.2% [10]. - For inventory management, strategies include shorting Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling call options. For procurement management, strategies include buying Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling put options [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the daily average of the previous December. Thailand set a new cane base price for the 2025/26 season [11]. - Negative information: In the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 65 sugar mills have started production, 7 less than the previous year. In India's Maharashtra state, sugar production has accelerated. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 17.14% [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Brazil's weekly port sugar waiting - to - ship quantity and number of vessels (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's November sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar - pressing progress [14][16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic futures price decreased by 0.36% this week. The SR2605 contract's positions increased seasonally. The market shows a bearish technical pattern [18]. - The basis of the 01 contract is expected to return to near - par as the delivery month approaches. The market shows a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread widening [20]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price rebounded by 1.89% last week, reaching 15.2 cents on Friday. The non - commercial positions in CFTC show an increasing short - selling trend [22]. - The international raw sugar futures show a back structure, and the hedging pressure above 15.2 cents has reappeared [24]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between domestic and international sugar is complex. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to the opposite [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder from other Asian countries has increased [29]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1170 tons, a 4.82% increase year - on - year, considering the good growth of sugarcane in Guangxi [31]. - Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and current situations, and this week's data remain unchanged [31].