交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.44万吨，同比减少10.82万吨。 偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5360，基差103（05合约），升水期货；中性。 3、库存：截至10月底25/26榨季工业库存79.14万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 6、预期：国内白糖主力05短 ...

边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于海内外的供求差异问题 ，这也是当前内强外弱格局存在的原因所在。当 前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、国内01合约最终如何定价？上周主力合约由01转为05合约，01合约整体要比05合约更强一些，主要还是 因为现货价格水平更高，盘面整体被打压的比较多，01合约最终会接近广西价格，目前广西价格仅仅小幅升 水01合约，基本上基差上面不会存在太大的误差。 2、国内05合约的最终走向如何？05合约转为主力后，市场更加关注未来的动向。从期货结构看，05合约相 比01合约大概贴水100元/吨，主要是因国产糖供应在3月左右会达到最大，进口糖压力则从5月开始大幅增 加，因此05合约的压力是最大的，因此05合约后续跌至极低的价格也是存在可能性的。 2、国际市场会重新站稳15美分吗？上周国际原糖价格重新回到15美分之上。 由于巴西糖的出口成本在15.2 美分，当前糖价已经连续3次冲上该价格后被压制。整体看利多（如泰国甘蔗收购价极低） ...

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information relevant to the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, due to the adverse impact of consecutive typhoons around the National Day on sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, along with the seasonal supply gap between old and new crops after the holiday, there is a driving force for sugar prices to be seasonally strong. In the medium - term, considering the favorable rain and heat conditions in the southern main sugar - producing areas this year and the good growth of sugarcane, the rebound space of sugar prices is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - **Spot Prices**: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), the price is 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Yunnan (Kunming), it's 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunnan (Dali), 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong (Rizhao), 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Futures Prices**: SR01 is 5457 yuan, up 31 yuan; SRO5 is 5408 yuan, up 25 yuan; the spread between SR01 - 05 is 49 yuan, up 6 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1424, up 0.0008; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - **International Commodity Prices**: The ice raw sugar主力 is 15.13, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 64.35, unchanged [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, consecutive typhoons around the National Day have adversely affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, with sugarcane in the producing areas experiencing lodging and flooding. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices due to the shortage between old and new crops after the holiday. In the medium - term, the sugarcane in the southern main producing areas has grown well this year, and the expected rebound in sugar prices will be limited after the new sugar is launched [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Directory Domestic Sugar Price - On October 20, 2025, the spot price per ton of sugar was 5810 yuan in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi (unchanged), 5740 yuan in Kunming (down 20 yuan), 5600 yuan in Dali, Yunnan (down 15 yuan), and 5870 yuan in Rizhao, Shandong (down 10 yuan) [4] - SR01 was priced at 5428 yuan (up 16 yuan), SRO5 at 5389 yuan (up 12 yuan), and SR01 - 05 was 39 yuan (up 4 yuan) [4] Exchange Rates and International Sugar - Related Data - The exchange rate of RMB to USD was 7.143 (up 0.0055), the exchange rate of Real to RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and the exchange rate of Rupee to RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004) [4] - The ice raw sugar main contract was at 15.53 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract was at 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract was at 61.34 (unchanged) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Typhoons around the National Day have negatively affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, causing lodging and waterlogging of sugarcane in the producing areas. There is seasonal upward momentum in sugar prices due to the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is listed, the rebound space is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sugar Price Data - On October 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5740 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of SR01 was 5528 yuan, up 35 yuan; the price of SR05 was 5492 yuan, up 34 yuan. The price difference between SR09 - 01 was 36 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1516, up 0.0109; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.32, down 0.28; the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.08, down 0.07 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rebound in external sugar prices and the typhoon weather in China, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to rise after the holiday, but the increase will be limited by supply [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,528 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 35 yuan; the position of the main contract is 373,744 lots, a decrease of 14,293 lots [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,898, a decrease of 70; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -76,833 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots [2] - The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 0 [2] - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,426 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,694 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan [2] - The spot price of white granulated sugar in Kunming is 5,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; in Nanning it is 5,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 5,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9989 million tons, an increase of 499,800 tons [2] - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, an increase of 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 8.36%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; that of at-the-money put options is 8.37%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 6.54%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility is 6.5%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - Brazilian sugar exports in September were 3.2458 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 493,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. From April 2025 to September 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 17.75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73% [2] - In the first half of September 2025, the sugar cane crushed in central and southern Brazil was 45.973 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.94%; sugar production was 3.622 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.72% [2] - Affected by the typhoon "Maidolum", some sugar cane in Guangxi has lodged, which may affect production. Sugar mills in northern beet-producing areas have gradually started production, and the supply of 460,000 tons of out-of-quota raw sugar is expected to arrive in September [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is in an oversupply cycle in 2025, and the bearish situation is difficult to break. The market focus in the second half of 2025 will be on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. - In the third quarter, the market may first trade on Brazil's potential production cut, which could drive up sugar prices. The domestic sugar price has support around 5300 yuan/ton, and the overseas market has support at 15.2 cents/pound. However, when the market supply returns to Asia, the market will face pressure again [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the SR2601 price is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, showing an overall downward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - In the first half of 2025, the sugar market fluctuated widely. Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) fluctuated between 5600 - 6100 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16.2 - 19.76 cents/pound. The market was mainly influenced by India's sugar supply and exports in the 24/25 season, China's import restrictions on syrup and premixed powder, China's sugar supply, and production estimates for Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 season [1]. - In the second half of 2025, the market will focus on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, the sugar market declined in an oscillatory manner. Zheng sugar fluctuated between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16 - 17.6 cents/pound [3]. - The price fluctuations in July were due to lower - than - expected Chinese import data in June, potential low actual arrivals of imported sugar in July, delayed concentrated production of refined sugar until August - September, the rebound of Brazilian ethanol prices which restricted the continuous increase of the sugar - making ratio, and the impact of rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region on the sugarcane harvest progress [3][4]. - The price fluctuations in August were influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported sugar, the shift of the main contract from 09 to 01, concerns about the quality of Brazilian sugarcane, a high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, a large volume of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports, and expectations of increased production in India and Thailand [7]. - The price decline in September was mainly due to the good prospects of sugarcane harvest in India and Thailand, which continuously suppressed domestic and international sugar prices [5]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 China Market - **Inventory and Supply Pressure**: The 24/25 crushing season in China produced 1116.21 million tons of sugar, putting significant supply pressure. As of the end of August, the national inventory was 116.23 million tons, and the final carry - over inventory was estimated to be 56.23 million tons [7][10]. - **Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 262 million tons of sugar. The 9 - 12 month import volume in 2025 is expected to be at least 250 million tons, with importers likely to import more in September - October. The estimated import volumes for September - December 2025 are 70 million tons, 65 million tons, 60 million tons, and 55 million tons respectively [12][13]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder**: In 2025, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to be over 100 million tons. The tax policies for imports have changed, with some countries having different tax rates and regulations [19][21]. - **25/26 Crushing Season Production**: The estimated national sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is 1155 million tons, an increase of 38 million tons compared to the previous season. Production in different regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang is expected to change to varying degrees [23]. 3.3.2 Brazil - **Production**: As of the end of August in the 25/26 crushing season, Brazil's central - southern region had cumulatively processed 403.9 million tons of sugarcane, a 4.78% decrease year - on - year. The estimated total sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is about 44.56 million tons [25][26]. - **Export**: As of the end of August, Brazil had exported 14.5119 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season. The estimated export volume from September 2025 to March 2026 is about 17.3 million tons, and the carry - over inventory at the end of the 25/26 crushing season is estimated to be 4.3 million tons [28]. 3.3.3 India - **Production**: Based on current crop growth and rainfall, India's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane production may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase compared to the 24/25 season. Different institutions estimate India's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to be between 3230 - 3490 million tons [30][31]. - **Export**: If India produces 34.9 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season, after subtracting 4.5 million tons for ethanol use, the net sugar production will be 30.4 million tons. Assuming domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of 7.284 million tons. If 2 million tons are exported, the ending inventory will remain at 5.284 million tons [33][34]. 3.3.4 Thailand - **Production**: Thailand's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane planting area may reach 1.68 million hectares, an increase of over 8%. The sugar production is expected to be between 10.3 - 11.4 million tons [36]. - **Export**: Thailand's domestic sugar consumption is relatively stable, and it is the world's second - largest sugar exporter. The estimated export volume in the 25/26 crushing season is 6.8 million tons, but it may face competition from India and Brazil [38]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Sugar Valuation Feedback - **Zheng Sugar Valuation**: Calculated based on a 510 yuan/ton sugarcane purchase price, the production cost of sugar in Guangxi is about 5580 yuan/ton, with a cost range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, and the Zheng sugar futures price is usually lower than the Guangxi spot price. The current low price of the SR01 contract still has room to fall [40][41][42]. - **Raw Sugar Valuation**: Based on cost considerations, the ICE raw sugar price has strong support around 15.2 cents/pound. However, historically, during periods of global sugar oversupply, the futures price may break through the cost line. Different countries may adopt different policies in response to low sugar prices [44][45]. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **China's 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 crushing season, unless there are significant policy changes, the sugar price is likely to remain weak. The estimated production is 1155 million tons, the import volume is 500 million tons, and the syrup and premixed powder conversion is 80 million tons. The supply is expected to exceed demand [48][50]. - **Global 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: The global sugar supply - demand structure in the 25/26 crushing season has changed from a slight shortage in the 24/25 season to a significant oversupply. Most institutions predict an oversupply, and the global oversupply situation is expected to be significant [51].