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白糖数据日报-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:27
国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ---- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 ------- 22/23 -------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 2017 ==2018 == 2020 =2016 · 0 2021 == 2023 == 2024 === 2024 === 2025 11月 10月 12月 2月 3月 5月 6月 9月 1月 4月 7月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -600 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 SR1701-SR1705 -SR1801-SR1805 -SR1901-SR1905 -SR2001-SR2005 SR2101-SR2105 -SR2201-SR2205 -SR ...
白糖产业日报-20251009
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 14:29
白糖产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5528 | 35 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 373744 | -14293 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8898 | -70 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -76833 | -1049 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4482 | 28 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4426 | 29 | | 现货市场 | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5694 | 37 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5620 | 36 | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5820 | 10 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) /吨) | 5800 | 2 ...
南华期货白糖四季度展望:过剩周期延续,熊市困局难破
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:26
2025年9月30日 南华期货白糖四季度展望 ——过剩周期延续 熊市困局难破 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章:观点概要 2025年上半年白糖市场宽幅震荡,可以拆分为三个阶段,郑糖波动大致区间5600-6100元/吨,原糖波动 区间在16.2-19.76美分/磅。市场主要围绕24/25年度印度糖供应变化、出口,中国进口糖浆及预混粉限制,中 国糖供应变化,以及25/26年度巴西估产、印度、泰国估产变化展开。 展望2025年下半年,市场的关注重点将围绕巴西25/26榨季产量变化,印度、泰国25/26榨季估产及产量 落地情况,印度出口预期变化,国内国产糖消费及库存变化、25/26榨季国产糖产量预估变化、进口糖及糖浆 预拌粉进口节奏及政策变化。整体看,由于印度泰国增产预期打的比较足,当前糖价被压制的过低,而巴西 存在一定的减产倾向,因此在三季度市场可能会先去交易巴西减产从而抬升糖价,国内糖价在5300一带是存 在一定支撑的,海外市场则会在15.2美分受到依托,而随着巴西交易的结束,市场供应重新回到亚洲地区 时,盘面的压力又会随之而来。 四季度SR26 ...
南华期货白糖产业周报:进入亚洲供应期-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 13:11
南华期货白糖产业周报 当前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点: 1、我们认为近期市场主要交易进口节奏的问题。我们可以看到,近期白糖价格走势和进口节奏呈现了高度的 相关性,后期需要关注配额外进口利润变化以及进口糖浆及预拌粉变化。8月数据看,泰国进口的预混粉又有 增长的苗头,虽然相比去年同期依旧要少很多。 2、国产糖低库存对郑糖价起到支撑作用,但8月的产区销量数据低于预期,广西和云南叠加销量仅为39.11万 吨,远低于去年61万吨。这导致期末库存达到122.22万吨,比去年同期还高了10多万吨。9月销售数据公布 在即,最终销量可能最多也就60多万吨,那么期末库存也将接近60万吨,整体已经无法对糖价的支撑作用效 果就没那么明显。 3、上涨台风"桦加沙"对广东湛江、广西部分地区的甘蔗造成倒伏损害,导致盘面一度出现上涨,但实际看"桦 加沙"影响要小于去年的"摩羯",因此最终损失可能有限。 3、巴西的利多支撑在逐步减弱。由于巴西在最近的压榨量确实同期高于去年,导致前期积累的利多优势在逐 步蚕食,尽管制糖比相比此前开始下滑,但巴西中南部也即将进入供应淡季,预计整体的减产幅度低于预 期。且26/27榨季预计将出现恢复性增产。 ...
白糖早报-20250925
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:44
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a mixed outlook for the sugar market. While there are some bullish factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, there are also bearish factors including expected global sugar supply surplus, downward - trending technical indicators, and import pressure. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a short - term volatile rebound due to factors like pre - holiday profit - taking by short - sellers and potential damage to sugarcane crops from a typhoon [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, while ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. In August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August 2025, a 60,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes in July, a 68,500 - ton year - on - year decrease. Overall, this is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5890, with a basis of 393 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Before the National Day holiday, after consecutive days of decline in Zhengzhou sugar, some short - sellers took profits and exited. Typhoon "Koinu" affected the sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi, potentially causing yield reduction. The main 01 contract shows a short - term volatile rebound [5]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: In 2025, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and 50% tariff payment varies. For example, in September 2025, with an average ICE raw sugar price of about 15.79 cents per pound from Brazil, the cost was 5454 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.
白糖早报-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:36
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖: 1、基本面:ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨,比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab: 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨,比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底,24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨;全国累计销糖954.98万吨;销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨,同比增加32万吨;进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨,同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差:柳州现货5970,基差447(01合约),升水期货;偏多。 3、库存:截至7月底24/25榨季工 ...
白糖月报:郑糖延续跌势,向下空间取决外盘-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 13:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall outlook for sugar prices remains bearish, with the downward potential of domestic sugar prices depending on the external market. If Brazil's sugar production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, potentially leading to new lows for domestic sugar prices. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, making the trend of domestic sugar prices more uncertain [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - External market: In August, the raw sugar price fluctuated. As of August 29, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.34 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month, a decrease of 0.06%. The October - March spread of raw sugar remained volatile, at -0.64 cents per pound, down 0.01 cents per pound from the previous month. The October - March spread of London white sugar strengthened significantly, at $21.5 per ton, up $19.1 per ton from the previous month. The raw - white sugar spread strengthened to $132 per ton, up $25 per ton from the previous month [9]. - Domestic market: In August, the Zhengzhou sugar price declined. As of August 29, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,604 yuan per ton, down 51 yuan per ton from the previous month, a decrease of 0.9%. The spot price in Guangxi was 5,930 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened to 326 yuan per ton, up 109 yuan per ton from the previous month. The January - May spread fluctuated at 37 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan per ton from the previous month. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports fluctuated at 477 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry News** - According to the latest UNICA data, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons or 8.17% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - making ratio was 55%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 3.61 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons or 15.96% compared to the same period last year. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi was 89.04%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 260,200 tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 708,700 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 86.09%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points year - on - year. In August, the single - month sugar sales were 130,900 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons year - on - year, and the industrial inventory was 336,400 tons, an increase of 70,700 tons year - on - year [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy** - Domestically, due to the increase in import supply, the poor sales and production data in the main producing areas in August, and the expected increase in production in Guangxi in the new crushing season. Internationally, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased significantly year - on - year in the first half of August. Both the domestic and international markets are bearish, and the overall view on sugar prices remains bearish. The downward potential depends on the external market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may decline further, and domestic sugar prices may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, and the trend of domestic sugar prices will be more complex [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The data on August 29, 2025, showed that the basis was 326 yuan per ton, the January - May spread of Zhengzhou sugar was 37 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was -140 yuan per ton, the raw - white sugar spread was $132 per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.03 cents per pound, the in - quota cost for the October contract was 4,522 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost for the October contract was 5,643 yuan per ton. The multi - empty scores for basis, spread, production - sales area spread, raw - white sugar spread, sugar - alcohol spread, and cost were -0.5, -0.5, 0, +0.5, 0, and -0.5 respectively. The summary is that the probability of the continued decline of Zhengzhou sugar prices is relatively high [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - The recommended strategy is to short at high prices in a single - side trade, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of within 3 months, a core driving logic of high import supply pressure and expected production increase in the new crushing season, a recommended level of 3, and the first proposed time of August 16, 2025 [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including those for spot prices and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums, and sugar - alcohol ratios, which show the historical trends of various spreads over different time periods [17][20][25] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - The report provides charts on national sugar production, import volume (including sugar, syrup, and pre - mixed powder), sales volume, and industrial inventory, showing the historical data of these indicators over different time periods [41][44][49][52] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions** - Charts show the historical trends of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57] - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil [60] - **Indian Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India [65] - **Thai Production** - Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand [68] - **Brazilian Shipment Volume** - Charts show the sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar awaiting shipment at Brazilian ports [71]
白糖产业周报-20250901
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 10:23
【国内市场】 现货报价:南宁中间商站台报价6000元/吨。昆明中间商报价5770-5940元/吨。 7月我国进口食糖74.43万吨,环比增长75.29%,同比增长76.44%,其中64.44万吨来自于巴西。7月我国进口糖浆和预混粉15.97万吨,同比下降6.86万吨,但环比 继续增加,创年内新高。 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本 ...
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Import volume has increased significantly and is at its peak. Northern sugar mills will start production later, and the new - season sugar production is expected to be at a near - four - year high. These factors will suppress the sugar price to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,609 yuan/ton, with a change of 5; the main contract position is 358,781 lots, with an increase of 1,010. The number of warehouse receipts is 13,434, a decrease of 482. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,562 lots, a decrease of 401. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 7, an increase of 6 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,552 yuan/ton, an increase of 13; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, an increase of 17. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,786 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50; in Liuzhou, it is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 41 million tons, an increase of 7.3; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,796.6 million tons, a decrease of 46.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.27%, unchanged; that of at - the - money put options is also 8.27%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.9%, an increase of 0.27; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.41%, an increase of 0.26 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association reported that in the first half of August, sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.97%. On Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.16%. Internationally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil's sugar production increased in the first half of August. Meanwhile, demand shows signs of improvement, and raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] 3.8 View Summary - Internally, the profit window outside the quota remains open, import pressure is released, and the sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade. August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start production in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the amount of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the current de - stocking process. The new - season sugar production is expected to remain at a high level in the past four years [2]
白糖产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation, but there are concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season and signs of improved demand. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, with a significant increase in sugar imports in July, which is the highest in the same period in the past decade, and the peak period will last until August and September. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to increase due to the upcoming Double - Festival stocking. The inventory pressure of domestic sugar is not large currently, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic sugar price is supported by the Double - Festival stocking expectation and low inventory pressure, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign markets. However, factors such as increased imports, upcoming northern sugar mill openings, and high new - season production expectations will limit the upward space of the price. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5688 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 15 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 367,664 hands, with a change of 5,745 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,385, with a decrease of 170. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,517 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, with no change. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton; the estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is also 4,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,970 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons. The total sugar export volume from Brazil is 359.37 million tons, an increase of 23.47 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price within the quota is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is also 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price outside the quota (50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is also 8.16%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.54%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous year's 40.2 million tons [2].