2026 年 03 月 2 日 货 研 究 白糖：中东战火再起，涨价情绪火上浇油 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：截至 1 月 31 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 17%。印度批准额外出口 50 万吨，此前 批准 150 万吨出口配额。中国 12 月进口食糖 58 万吨（+19 万吨）。截至 1 月底，25 /26 榨季广西累计产糖 403 万吨（-79 万吨），产糖率 12.05%，同比下降 1.14 个百分点。关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政策变化，产 区销售进度。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 万吨（前值 1120 万吨），消费量为 1570 万吨 （前值 1590 万吨），进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会数据显示，截至 9 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 1048 万吨（+87 万吨），累计销糖率 93.9%（下降 2.6 个百分点）。 中国海关数据显示，截至 12 月底，25/26 榨季中国累 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,185, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 16,144, down 1384, open interest 103,859, up 2180 [3] - SR01: Closing price 5,296, down 7, down 0.13%, volume 128, down 102, open interest 838, up 28 [3] - SR05: Closing price 5,168, down 4, down 0.08%, volume 190,426, down 9709, open interest 472,603, up 4628 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5330 (down 10), Kunming 5155 (down 10), Wuhan 5630 (unchanged), Nanning 5300 (down 10), Bayuquan 5460 (down 70), Rizhao 5415 (down 40), Xi'an 5760 (unchanged) [3] - Basis: Liuzhou 162, Kunming -13, Wuhan 462, Nanning 132, Bayuquan 292, Rizhao 247, Xi'an 592 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01: Spread -128, up 3; SR09 - SR05: Spread 17, unchanged; SR09 - SR01: Spread -111, up 3 [3] Import Profit - Brazil import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 4046, out - of - quota price 5125, spread with Liuzhou 205, spread with Rizhao 290, spread with futures 171 [3] - Thailand import: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4098, out - of - quota price 5192, spread with Liuzhou 138, spread with Rizhao 223, spread with futures 104 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook Important Information - Brazil exported 173.76 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average of 10.86 million tons. In January 2025, the export volume was 206.22 million tons, with a daily average of 9.37 million tons [5] - As of January 24, 2026, in the 2025/26 crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, crushing 2489 million tons of sugarcane and producing 232.9 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 26.6 million tons compared to the same period of the previous season [5] - In Yunnan, 2 more sugar mills started operation on January 27, 2026, and 1 more is expected to start this week. As of now, 47 sugar mills have started operation in the 2025/26 crushing season in Yunnan, 2 more than the same period last year [5] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to higher - than - expected growth, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodities, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestic market: China's sugar production is at its peak, and the output is likely to increase significantly this season. In 2025, China imported 491.88 million tons of sugar, an increase of 56.22 million tons year - on - year. The supply pressure is obvious, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. But considering the low price and cost support, the decline space is limited [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is expected to fluctuate due to supply pressure above and cost support below [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads [13][18][20][22][24][26]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily sugar report dated January 15, 2026, focusing on the sugar market [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range for domestic sugar. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9] Group 4: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,291, down 13 (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 14,823 (down 14,574) and an open interest of 85,880 (up 746) - SR01 closed at 5,295, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 1,151 (up 1,105) and an open interest of 6,786 (down 1,150) - SR05 closed at 5,280, down 19 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 162,483 (down 66,399) and an open interest of 425,271 (down 3,694) [3] Spot Market - Sugar spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,505, 5,345, 5,810, 5,430, 5,700, and 5,960 respectively. The price in Kunming dropped by 25, and that in Xi'an dropped by 20 [3] Spread - SR05 - SR01 spread was - 15, SR09 - SR05 spread was 11, and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 4 [3] Import Profit - For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 3,945, the out - of - quota price was 5,009, the spread with Liuzhou was 496, the spread with Rizhao was 691, and the spread with the futures was 286. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 3,995, the out - of - quota price was 5,074, the spread with Liuzhou was 431, the spread with Rizhao was 626, and the spread with the futures was 221 [3] Group 5: Market Research Important Information - In 2025, the actual arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota in China was 221.61 million tons, an increase of 128.23 million tons year - on - year, the second - highest in the past five years [5] - On January 15, the spot sugar prices in major producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - Due to the continuous decline in sugar prices, it is expected that the beet planting area in the EU will decrease by about 7% - 8% this year, which may help the regional and global sugar prices rebound [7] Logical Analysis - Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is gradually entering the harvest stage, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease. Most of the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in the production - increasing cycle. India's production may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. It is expected that the US sugar price will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, and the cost of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota is between 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, which provides some support for sugar prices. However, due to the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/2026 period, there is significant pressure on the upper - range oscillation platform of sugar prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices will have a range - bound movement. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts related to sugar market data, such as monthly inventory, monthly production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of sugar in different regions and periods [11][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar main contract 05 has entered a short - term adjustment mode, with support around 5200, and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][7] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX 370 tons, Czarnikow 740 tons, and DATAGRO 100 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 88.3 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.16 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 44 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 9 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.82 tons [4][7] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5360, with a basis of 103 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 79.14 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 tons as global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [29] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane planting area, sugar - beet planting area, sugar - cane yield per unit area, sugar - beet yield per unit area, sugar production, and sugar imports are expected to change. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports 5 million tons, consumption 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [31] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [34] 5. Position Data - No information provided

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, resulting in the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The pricing of the domestic 01 contract will approach the Guangxi price, and the 05 contract may decline to a very low price due to increased supply pressure [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to continue the game around 15.2 cents, with limited upside potential in the near - term [2]. - The long - term structure of Zhengzhou sugar shows a downward trend, with the 05 contract being continuously suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The focus of market trading is the supply - demand difference between domestic and international markets. The key contradictions affecting sugar prices include the final pricing of the domestic 01 and 05 contracts and whether the international market can regain stability at 15 cents [1][2]. - The 01 contract is stronger than the 05 contract because of the higher spot price. The 05 contract has greater pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future [1]. - The international raw sugar price has rebounded to above 15 cents, but the upside is limited as positive factors mainly affect the far - month contracts [2]. - The SR2501 contract is approaching the delivery month, and its price is mainly based on the Guangxi new sugar price. The far - month contracts show a discount structure due to expected production increases [4][7]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a downward trend, with the 05 contract being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. - Recommended strategies include the basis strategy of buying 01 and shorting the spot, and the spread strategy of going long on 01 and shorting 05 or 03 [9]. - Past strategies' performance includes stop - losses, entries, exits, and profit - taking [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5500, with a current volatility of 6.02% and a historical percentile of 2.2% [10]. - For inventory management, strategies include shorting Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling call options. For procurement management, strategies include buying Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling put options [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the daily average of the previous December. Thailand set a new cane base price for the 2025/26 season [11]. - Negative information: In the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 65 sugar mills have started production, 7 less than the previous year. In India's Maharashtra state, sugar production has accelerated. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 17.14% [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Brazil's weekly port sugar waiting - to - ship quantity and number of vessels (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's November sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar - pressing progress [14][16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic futures price decreased by 0.36% this week. The SR2605 contract's positions increased seasonally. The market shows a bearish technical pattern [18]. - The basis of the 01 contract is expected to return to near - par as the delivery month approaches. The market shows a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread widening [20]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price rebounded by 1.89% last week, reaching 15.2 cents on Friday. The non - commercial positions in CFTC show an increasing short - selling trend [22]. - The international raw sugar futures show a back structure, and the hedging pressure above 15.2 cents has reappeared [24]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between domestic and international sugar is complex. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to the opposite [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder from other Asian countries has increased [29]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1170 tons, a 4.82% increase year - on - year, considering the good growth of sugarcane in Guangxi [31]. - Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and current situations, and this week's data remain unchanged [31].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Approaching Peak Domestic Sugar Pressing, Prices Under Pressure to Decline [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest phase, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The international sugar price has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Domestically, sugar mills are in the peak pressing season, and the supply and sales pressure will increase. However, due to tightened imports and high production costs, the downward price space is expected to be limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Wait and see as the Brazilian sugar season is nearing the end, and although the domestic market has increased supply pressure, the downward price space is limited due to high production costs and low current prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options at low prices [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes**: - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus of 163 tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption increasing by only 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The 2024/25 season had a supply - demand gap of 292 tons. Datagro lowered its forecast of the 2025/26 global sugar supply surplus to 100 tons, reduced Brazil's sugar production forecast, and cut India's sugar production forecast by 70 tons. Major importers like China and Indonesia have increased their purchases [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Situation**: - Production is expected to remain high, with the 2025/26 production forecast at 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than in August [9]. - In the first half of November, the sugar - making ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased significantly. The cane crushing volume, ethanol production, and sugar production all increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the first half of November in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil increased by 800,000 tons year - on - year [13]. - Sugar inventory decreased slightly, and exports decreased. In November, sugar and molasses exports were 3.3023 million tons, a 2.59% decrease from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from April to November decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [16]. - **Thai Sugar Situation**: - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production was 10.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons. Exports from January to September 2025 were 4.8685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.32 million tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in production, and exports are expected to increase by 1 million tons [24]. - **Indian Sugar Situation**: - In the 2025/26 season, as of November 30, cumulative cane crushing increased by 45.5% year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 49.81% year - on - year. The average national sugar production cost has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram [32]. - **Domestic Sugar Situation**: - Sugar mills are gradually starting production. As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, with a decrease in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year. In Yunnan, 10 sugar mills have started production, with an increase in cane crushing and sugar production compared to the same period last year [35]. - Import profits are relatively high [36]. - In October 2025, sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October, sugar imports were 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year increase. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased [43]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Includes data on Brazilian sugar production, exports, inventory; Indian and Thai sugar production; and domestic sugar production, imports, etc., presented in various charts and figures [45][56][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information relevant to the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, due to the adverse impact of consecutive typhoons around the National Day on sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, along with the seasonal supply gap between old and new crops after the holiday, there is a driving force for sugar prices to be seasonally strong. In the medium - term, considering the favorable rain and heat conditions in the southern main sugar - producing areas this year and the good growth of sugarcane, the rebound space of sugar prices is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - **Spot Prices**: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), the price is 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Yunnan (Kunming), it's 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunnan (Dali), 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong (Rizhao), 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Futures Prices**: SR01 is 5457 yuan, up 31 yuan; SRO5 is 5408 yuan, up 25 yuan; the spread between SR01 - 05 is 49 yuan, up 6 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1424, up 0.0008; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - **International Commodity Prices**: The ice raw sugar主力 is 15.13, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 64.35, unchanged [4].