白糖产业日报 2025-08-25 力不大，且短时间双节备货预期，为白糖价格带来支撑，外盘价格低位震荡，外弱内强格局明显。不过与 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 其同时，进口大幅增加且处于高峰期，后市北方糖厂开榨，增加后市供应，且新榨季产量预期处于近四年 免责声明 高位，这些因素将限制价格上方空间。操作建议观望。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5688 | 15 主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low due to the obvious increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil after July and the expected increase in production in major northern hemisphere producers like India in the new season [8]. - The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline as the domestic import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, the out - of - quota spot import profit has remained at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price valuation is still high [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The international raw sugar price rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was 16.47 cents per pound, up 0.2 cents per pound from the previous week, a 1.23% increase. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,664 yuan per ton, up 91 yuan per ton from the previous week, a 1.63% increase. Various spreads also showed different trends [9]. - **Industry News**: In the second half of July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.217 million tons of sugarcane, a 2.66% year - on - year decrease; produced 3.614 million tons of sugar, a 0.8% year - on - year decrease. As of the week of August 13, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 80 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased by 259,800 tons, a 7.26% decline [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to short at high levels with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within three months [8][9]. 3.2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - international spreads, London white sugar monthly spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3.3. Domestic Market Situation - The report shows charts of national sugar production, import volume, sales volume, and industrial inventory, covering monthly and cumulative data for multiple seasons, to reflect the supply and demand situation in the domestic sugar market [41][44][49][52]. 3.4. International Market Situation - The report provides charts of CFTC positions, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil, India, and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar shipment volume, to show the international sugar market situation [57][60][65][68][71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar processing and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is gradually increasing. The spot import profit outside the quota has remained at the highest level in the past five years, with a relatively high valuation. Coupled with the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next crushing season, assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline in the future is relatively high [9] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: This week, the raw sugar price fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar October contract was reported at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 0.49%. In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil increased by 15.07% year - on - year to 3.406 million tons, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.33 million tons. The estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons to 30 million tons, slightly lower than the market expectation of 31 - 34 million tons. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports is 79, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded is 3.5531 million tons. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 40.16 million tons, a slight decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous season [9] - **Domestic Market Review**: This week, the Zhengzhou sugar price decreased with a reduction in positions. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was reported at 5,733 yuan per ton, down 143 yuan per ton from the previous week, an increase of 2.43%. As of June, the newly added sugarcane planting area of Guangxi Sugar Industry Group was 320,000 mu, with a total planting area of 2.15 million mu [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: On August 1, 2025, the basis was 257 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spread was 113 yuan per ton, the production - sales area spread was - 110 yuan per ton, the raw - refined sugar spread was 107 US dollars per ton, the sugar - alcohol spread was 2.67 cents per pound, the in - quota cost of the October contract was 4,526 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,647 yuan per ton. The overall valuation of the market is relatively high [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: No trading strategy was recommended [11] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report presents the price trend of first - grade white granulated sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, and the basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [17][18] - **Spot - to - Spot Spreads**: It shows the processing sugar basis, production - sales area spreads, Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 spreads, and Zhengzhou sugar 9 - 1 spreads [20][21][24] - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: It includes the out - of - quota spot import profit, out - of - quota futures import profit, raw sugar 10 - 3 spreads, and raw sugar 3 - 5 spreads [25][26][28] - **London White Sugar Monthly Spreads**: It shows the London white sugar 8 - 10 spreads and 10 - 3 spreads [29][30] - **Raw - Refined Sugar Spreads**: It presents the 10 - 10 and 3 - 3 raw - refined sugar spreads [31][32] - **Raw Sugar Spot Premiums and Discounts**: It shows the Brazilian and Thai raw sugar premiums and discounts [33][34] - **Sugar - Alcohol Ratio Fluctuations**: It shows the production advantage of raw sugar over Brazilian hydrous ethanol and the Brazilian oil - alcohol ratio [36][37] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **National Production**: It presents the national monthly and cumulative sugar production [41][42] - **Sugar Imports**: It shows the national monthly and cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and cumulative imports of syrups and premixes [44][45][47] - **National Sales**: It presents the national monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress [49][50] - **National Industrial Inventory**: It shows the national monthly industrial inventory and Guangxi's three - party warehouse inventory [52][53] 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: It shows the CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions [57][58] - **Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: It presents the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil [60][61][64] - **India's Production**: It shows India's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [65][66] - **Thailand's Production**: It shows Thailand's bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production [68][69] - **Brazil's Shipment Volume**: It shows the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports [71][72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The SR509 contract of sugar is expected to be prone to decline in the short - term but with limited downside space, and there is support at the price of 5600. In the long - term, the global sugar supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the SR2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices within the range. Follow - up data such as UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Supply - **Brazil Production**: - The 2024/25 Brazilian sugar production was 4017 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to the previous season, with a decline of 5.3%. As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25%. The precipitation in the first half of June was relatively high, affecting the crushing progress. The sugar - to - cane ratio continued to rise, offsetting the impact of the decline in crushing volume and sugar content. The recent precipitation will affect the raw sugar price. The 2025/26 production is expected to increase, with an estimated output of about 4200 tons [44][45][46]. - As of the second half of June 2025/26, the cumulative cane input in the central - southern region was 20619.8 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.00%. The cumulative sugar - to - cane ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar production was 1224.9 tons, a year - on - year decline of 14.25% [53]. - As of July 11, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo, Brazil was 65.38%, and ethanol had an advantage in sales. The ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.78 cents per pound, and the ICE raw sugar settlement price was 16.56 cents per pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.78 cents per pound over the ethanol - converted sugar price, which continued to decline compared to the previous week [68]. - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of July were 136.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.88 tons, a decline of 21.66%. As of the week of July 9, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 368.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.96 tons, an increase of 1.96% [87]. - As of June 30, Brazil's sugar inventory was 401.6657 tons, at a relatively low level in the past five years, but the subsequent inventory accumulation pattern was obvious [84]. - **India and Thailand Production**: - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 season is estimated to be about 2610 - 2620 tons. The end - of - year inventory is expected to be 520 - 530 tons, ensuring a balance between supply and demand. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in production, with an estimated output of about 3500 tons [86]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1004.18 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous year. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to continue to increase slightly, with MitrPhol Group estimating 1150 tons and USDA estimating 1026 tons [93]. - **Global Production**: - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 season was still in a loose pattern but tightened marginally compared to the previous period. In the 2025/26 season, the supply is expected to turn loose. Some institutions predict a supply surplus, such as Czarnikow predicting a 750 - ton surplus, Datagro predicting a 153 - ton surplus, and Green Pool predicting a 115 - ton surplus [96][97]. Domestic Supply - **Production**: - The 2024/25 domestic sugar - making season ended on May 23. The total sugar production in the season was 1116.21 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.89 tons, an increase of 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152.1 tons, an increase of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [108][113]. - In Guangxi, the 2024/25 sugar production was 646.50 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 tons. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 tons, and the sales rate was 79.51%, 6.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year [113]. - **Import**: - The in - quota import volume is 194.5 tons per year, with a 15% tariff, and the out - of - quota import tariff is 50%. In June 2025, the imported sugar was 42 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 106 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25 tons. From the beginning of the 2024/25 season to the end of June, the cumulative imported sugar was 251 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65 tons. The out - of - quota import profit window opened earlier, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter [128]. - Since 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder has been restricted. In May 2025, the import of sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder (tax number 1702.90, 2106.906) was 6.43 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 tons. The import of goods under 170290 remained at a low level, while the import of goods under 2106906 increased significantly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [143]. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: - The peak demand seasons for sugar are the summer cold - drink and ice - cream consumption season and the Spring Festival stocking season. After the Spring Festival, the consumption is in the off - season, but the sugar sales data from February to April were higher than in previous years, mainly due to the transfer of some sugar factory inventories to third - party inventories. As of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.68%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 tons, a 6.29 - percentage - point increase in the sales rate compared to the same period last year [150]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 2025, the national industrial inventory was 304.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.21 tons. In Guangxi, as of June 2025, the industrial inventory was 132.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 tons [153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - International factors such as the improved prospects and expected restorative production increase in major Asian sugar - producing countries due to the monsoon season, along with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, are suppressing the raw sugar price. In the domestic market, in May 2025, China's sugar imports reached 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. With the import window open, import pressure is rising, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices. However, as the summer consumption peak approaches, the food and beverage industry has stocking needs, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks may pick up, providing some support to prices. The sugar price is showing an adjustment trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to sugar arrivals and summer consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position was 353,799 lots, down 15,173 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 27,334, down 335; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 63,539 lots, down 5,111 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,393 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,415 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,578 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,606 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning was 6,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou was 6,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area was 1,480 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 5.49 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.3509 million tons, down 128,600 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 2.2566 million tons, up 704,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,536 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,514 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 351 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 323 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year increase in refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year increase in soft - drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 11.36%, up 2.59 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.57%, with no change; the 60 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On June 23, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,925 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 707 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff). The sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,889 yuan/ton within the tariff quota (15% tariff) or 655 yuan/ton outside the tariff quota (50% tariff) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short term, the market is influenced by production data, while in the long term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase are key factors. Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,721 with a 0.02% increase, SR2507 at 5,750 with a 0.17% decrease, and SR2509 at 5,619 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes for SR2511, SR2507, and SR2509 decreased by 32.70%, 7.34%, and 12.38% respectively, and open interests decreased by 4.11%, 5.30%, and increased by 1.70% respectively [3]. - **Spot Market**: Sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, and other regions ranged from 5,865 to 6,420 yuan/ton. The basis for Liuzhou was 379 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread was 131 with a decrease of 1, SR09 - SR11 was 102, and SR07 - SR09 was 29 with a decrease of 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The in - quota and out - of - quota import prices from Brazil were 4,398 and 5,621 yuan/ton respectively, with a spread of 479 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou. For Thailand, the corresponding prices were 4,434 and 5,668 yuan/ton, with a spread of 432 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou [3]. Market Judgment - **International**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales rates may support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected global supply increases, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term due to delayed summer stocking demand, weak raw sugar, and increased out - of - quota import profits [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Expected to remain weak in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10].

Core Insights - Weak demand has raised alarms, leading to a significant reduction in India's sugar consumption forecast, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1] - The potential for a turnaround in white sugar price trends remains uncertain amidst these changes [1] Group 1: Demand and Consumption - India's sugar consumption forecast has been drastically lowered due to weak demand [1] - This decline in consumption is expected to impact the overall sugar market significantly [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - A new supply-demand landscape is emerging in the sugar industry, influenced by the changes in India's consumption patterns [1] - The industry is closely monitoring how these shifts will affect white sugar prices moving forward [1]