Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. As it is approaching delivery and the spot price at the beginning of the listing is relatively high, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. - In the short term, the external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the white sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global white sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar 01 continued to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500. The 01 contract is approaching delivery, and due to the relatively high spot price at the beginning of the listing, it shows more resistance to decline. One can focus on the spread trading opportunities between near - month and far - month contracts [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose [8]. - Negative factors: Increase in global white sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price dropping to around 14 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [8]. - Short - term situation: The external sugar price has been continuously falling, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has shown relative resistance to decline. The near - month contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - month ones, which may be related to the relatively high spot price of new sugar on the market. In the medium and long term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. As the 01 contract is approaching delivery, short - selling on the 05 contract on rallies is recommended for short - sellers [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Forecasts from different institutions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand: Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX expected a global sugar supply surplus of 277,000 tons; ISO expected a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous estimate [5]. - Domestic sugar production and sales data: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season nationwide was 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 1,000 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder and other three items was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - 25/26 global sugar supply and demand forecasts from multiple institutions: Different institutions have different views on the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation, with some predicting a surplus and some predicting a narrowing gap [5][37]. - China's sugar supply and demand balance sheet: It includes data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons [39]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information relevant to the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, due to the adverse impact of consecutive typhoons around the National Day on sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, along with the seasonal supply gap between old and new crops after the holiday, there is a driving force for sugar prices to be seasonally strong. In the medium - term, considering the favorable rain and heat conditions in the southern main sugar - producing areas this year and the good growth of sugarcane, the rebound space of sugar prices is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - **Spot Prices**: In Guangxi (Nanning Warehouse), the price is 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Yunnan (Kunming), it's 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunnan (Dali), 5575 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong (Rizhao), 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Futures Prices**: SR01 is 5457 yuan, up 31 yuan; SRO5 is 5408 yuan, up 25 yuan; the spread between SR01 - 05 is 49 yuan, up 6 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1424, up 0.0008; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - **International Commodity Prices**: The ice raw sugar主力 is 15.13, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 64.35, unchanged [4].

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/10/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/10/20 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5810 | 0 | 0 | 382 | -16 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5740 | -20 | -100 | 412 | -36 | | いで貰 | 云南 | 大理 | 5600 | -15 | -140 | 312 | -31 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 5870 | -10 | 100 | 342 | -26 | | 数盘 | | SR01 | 5428 | 16 | | | | | 据面 | | SRO5 | 5389 | 12 | SR01-05 | 39 | 4 | | दि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 143 | 0. 0055 | ice原 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Typhoons around the National Day have negatively affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, causing lodging and waterlogging of sugarcane in the producing areas. There is seasonal upward momentum in sugar prices due to the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is listed, the rebound space is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sugar Price Data - On October 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5740 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of SR01 was 5528 yuan, up 35 yuan; the price of SR05 was 5492 yuan, up 34 yuan. The price difference between SR09 - 01 was 36 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1516, up 0.0109; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.32, down 0.28; the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.08, down 0.07 [4].

白糖产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5528 | 35 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 373744 | -14293 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8898 | -70 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -76833 | -1049 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4482 | 28 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4426 | 29 | | 现货市场 | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5694 | 37 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5620 | 36 | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5820 | 10 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) /吨) | 5800 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is in an oversupply cycle in 2025, and the bearish situation is difficult to break. The market focus in the second half of 2025 will be on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. - In the third quarter, the market may first trade on Brazil's potential production cut, which could drive up sugar prices. The domestic sugar price has support around 5300 yuan/ton, and the overseas market has support at 15.2 cents/pound. However, when the market supply returns to Asia, the market will face pressure again [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the SR2601 price is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, showing an overall downward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - In the first half of 2025, the sugar market fluctuated widely. Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) fluctuated between 5600 - 6100 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16.2 - 19.76 cents/pound. The market was mainly influenced by India's sugar supply and exports in the 24/25 season, China's import restrictions on syrup and premixed powder, China's sugar supply, and production estimates for Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 season [1]. - In the second half of 2025, the market will focus on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, the sugar market declined in an oscillatory manner. Zheng sugar fluctuated between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16 - 17.6 cents/pound [3]. - The price fluctuations in July were due to lower - than - expected Chinese import data in June, potential low actual arrivals of imported sugar in July, delayed concentrated production of refined sugar until August - September, the rebound of Brazilian ethanol prices which restricted the continuous increase of the sugar - making ratio, and the impact of rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region on the sugarcane harvest progress [3][4]. - The price fluctuations in August were influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported sugar, the shift of the main contract from 09 to 01, concerns about the quality of Brazilian sugarcane, a high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, a large volume of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports, and expectations of increased production in India and Thailand [7]. - The price decline in September was mainly due to the good prospects of sugarcane harvest in India and Thailand, which continuously suppressed domestic and international sugar prices [5]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 China Market - **Inventory and Supply Pressure**: The 24/25 crushing season in China produced 1116.21 million tons of sugar, putting significant supply pressure. As of the end of August, the national inventory was 116.23 million tons, and the final carry - over inventory was estimated to be 56.23 million tons [7][10]. - **Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 262 million tons of sugar. The 9 - 12 month import volume in 2025 is expected to be at least 250 million tons, with importers likely to import more in September - October. The estimated import volumes for September - December 2025 are 70 million tons, 65 million tons, 60 million tons, and 55 million tons respectively [12][13]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder**: In 2025, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to be over 100 million tons. The tax policies for imports have changed, with some countries having different tax rates and regulations [19][21]. - **25/26 Crushing Season Production**: The estimated national sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is 1155 million tons, an increase of 38 million tons compared to the previous season. Production in different regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang is expected to change to varying degrees [23]. 3.3.2 Brazil - **Production**: As of the end of August in the 25/26 crushing season, Brazil's central - southern region had cumulatively processed 403.9 million tons of sugarcane, a 4.78% decrease year - on - year. The estimated total sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is about 44.56 million tons [25][26]. - **Export**: As of the end of August, Brazil had exported 14.5119 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season. The estimated export volume from September 2025 to March 2026 is about 17.3 million tons, and the carry - over inventory at the end of the 25/26 crushing season is estimated to be 4.3 million tons [28]. 3.3.3 India - **Production**: Based on current crop growth and rainfall, India's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane production may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase compared to the 24/25 season. Different institutions estimate India's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to be between 3230 - 3490 million tons [30][31]. - **Export**: If India produces 34.9 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season, after subtracting 4.5 million tons for ethanol use, the net sugar production will be 30.4 million tons. Assuming domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of 7.284 million tons. If 2 million tons are exported, the ending inventory will remain at 5.284 million tons [33][34]. 3.3.4 Thailand - **Production**: Thailand's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane planting area may reach 1.68 million hectares, an increase of over 8%. The sugar production is expected to be between 10.3 - 11.4 million tons [36]. - **Export**: Thailand's domestic sugar consumption is relatively stable, and it is the world's second - largest sugar exporter. The estimated export volume in the 25/26 crushing season is 6.8 million tons, but it may face competition from India and Brazil [38]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Sugar Valuation Feedback - **Zheng Sugar Valuation**: Calculated based on a 510 yuan/ton sugarcane purchase price, the production cost of sugar in Guangxi is about 5580 yuan/ton, with a cost range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, and the Zheng sugar futures price is usually lower than the Guangxi spot price. The current low price of the SR01 contract still has room to fall [40][41][42]. - **Raw Sugar Valuation**: Based on cost considerations, the ICE raw sugar price has strong support around 15.2 cents/pound. However, historically, during periods of global sugar oversupply, the futures price may break through the cost line. Different countries may adopt different policies in response to low sugar prices [44][45]. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **China's 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 crushing season, unless there are significant policy changes, the sugar price is likely to remain weak. The estimated production is 1155 million tons, the import volume is 500 million tons, and the syrup and premixed powder conversion is 80 million tons. The supply is expected to exceed demand [48][50]. - **Global 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: The global sugar supply - demand structure in the 25/26 crushing season has changed from a slight shortage in the 24/25 season to a significant oversupply. Most institutions predict an oversupply, and the global oversupply situation is expected to be significant [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the sugar price trend include the import rhythm, low domestic sugar inventory, typhoon damage, weakening Brazilian support, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [2][3]. - The near - term trading logic of SR2511 is mainly based on the import sugar price, and the pressure from the start of sugar beet production in the north has narrowed the 11 - 01 contract spread [6]. - The long - term trading logic of SR2601 is affected by the supply pressure of imported sugar and syrup premix, the expected difference in the new season's production, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand [8]. - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The market is mainly trading the import rhythm, and attention should be paid to the change in out - of - quota import profit and the import of syrup and premix [2]. - Low domestic sugar inventory supports the price, but the sales volume in August was lower than expected, and the final inventory may not support the price effectively [2]. - Typhoon "Huajiaisha" damaged the sugarcane, but the impact is less than that of "Mojie" last year, and the final loss may be limited [2]. - The bullish support from Brazil is weakening, and the 26/27 season is expected to have a recovery increase in production [3]. - The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses the upper limit of the sugar price, and India may export 150 - 200 tons in the new year [3]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is weakening but may strengthen in the future. The K - line price is in a short - position arrangement, and the position has decreased approaching the National Day holiday [10]. - The basis strategy is to sell spot and buy 2511 futures to lock in the basis return profit; the spread strategy has no recommendation [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current volatility of 6.19% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in 3 years [12]. - Different hedging strategies are recommended for different scenarios such as high inventory and low inventory [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The unilateral long position of SR2511 has been stopped out; selling spot and buying SR2511 has been entered; the long - short spread of SR2511 and SR2601 has left the market [15]. Typhoon "Huajiaisha" affected the sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi; the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased; Brazilian sugar exports in the first three weeks of September decreased compared with the same period last year [16]. - **Negative Information**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started production, and the production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be flat or slightly increase; the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the first half of September in central and southern Brazil are expected to increase; the sugar production in the 2026/27 season in central and southern Brazil is expected to increase by 5.7% [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The weekly number of sugar ships waiting to be transported and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time) [18]. - Brazilian sugar export data for September (Tuesday, Beijing time) [21]. - The sales data and industrial inventory data of domestic sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan in September at the beginning of October [21]. - The crushing data in the first ten days of September in central and southern Brazil [21]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The futures price rebounded from 5424 points and regained the 5500 support level. The position of the main contract SR2601 decreased after seasonal growth. The short - hedging position decreased, and foreign capital had more short positions. The 5500 level is a key position [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The basis of the 11th contract may further expand. The market shows a back structure, and the 11 - 01 spread will rise and then fall [24]. - **Foreign Market**: The sugar price rebounded due to the typhoon, but the impact is limited. The overseas raw sugar price may fall to 15 cents, and the position has reached a record high, with an increase in non - commercial short positions [26]. - **Spread Structure**: The raw sugar futures show a near - strong and far - weak back structure, which is unfavorable for sugar mills to hedge, but they still need to find appropriate opportunities [28]. - **Internal and External Spread Tracking**: The internal and external prices are weak. The out - of - quota import window on the disk is sometimes open and sometimes closed, and the spot import window is open. The Zhengzhou sugar price may be under pressure [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net importer of sugar and has a quota system. The out - of - quota import profit of Brazilian sugar has been shrinking, and the import window has been closed. The import of syrup and premix from other Asian countries has increased, and the data in August shows an upward trend in Thai premix [33]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the 24/25 season, the estimated carry - over inventory is 66.97 tons, the estimated cumulative import is 470 tons, and the estimated import of syrup and premix is 110 tons [36]. - For the 25/26 season, the estimated domestic sugar production is 1120 tons, and other data are estimated based on the 24/25 season [36].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents a mixed outlook for the sugar market. While there are some bullish factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, there are also bearish factors including expected global sugar supply surplus, downward - trending technical indicators, and import pressure. The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a short - term volatile rebound due to factors like pre - holiday profit - taking by short - sellers and potential damage to sugarcane crops from a typhoon [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the given content. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, while ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. In August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August 2025, a 60,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes in July, a 68,500 - ton year - on - year decrease. Overall, this is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5890, with a basis of 393 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, considered neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Before the National Day holiday, after consecutive days of decline in Zhengzhou sugar, some short - sellers took profits and exited. Typhoon "Koinu" affected the sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi, potentially causing yield reduction. The main 01 contract shows a short - term volatile rebound [5]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the given content. 3.4基本面数据 - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply gap, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: In 2025, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and 50% tariff payment varies. For example, in September 2025, with an average ICE raw sugar price of about 15.79 cents per pound from Brazil, the cost was 5454 yuan per ton [38]. 3.5持仓数据 No information provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 447 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons, also bullish. However, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below the 16 - cent mark, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has weakened accordingly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the amount of low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen to the 5500 mark and is expected to rebound with short - term support [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the external sugar price below 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [6]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar market. Czarnikow predicts a 7.5 - million - ton surplus, Dataro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 3.04 - million - ton surplus after a 700,000 - ton downward adjustment, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a 13.97 - million - ton surplus [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4 Fundamental Data - The 25/26 supply - demand situation forecasts from different institutions: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit with 180.6 million tons of production and 180.8 million tons of consumption; Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus; StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [34]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows that in the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is 12.3 million hectares, beet is 2.1 million hectares, sugar production is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined and duty - paid cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content