白糖期货气象分析
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南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告:近期巴西有一定降水缓解干旱
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of recent weather conditions on sugarcane production in major sugar - producing regions around the world, indicating that current weather in most areas is conducive to sugarcane growth, sugar accumulation, harvesting, and pressing [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - In December, southern China enters the concentrated sugar - cane crushing period. Sunny weather is beneficial for sugar accumulation and cane cutting and transportation. As of November 27, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 36 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons year - on - year. The current dry weather in Guangxi and Yunnan is favorable for sugar accumulation [1] - In Guangxi and Yunnan, recent low precipitation and suitable temperatures are conducive to sugar accumulation in sugarcane [15][19] 3.2 Brazil - The central - southern region of Brazil is in the late stage of sugar - cane crushing. It requires sunny and less - rainy weather, large diurnal temperature differences for sugar conversion and accumulation. Affected by La Nina, overall precipitation is low, but there has been some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered to some extent. However, the current low soil moisture is not conducive to the jointing of new - season sugarcane [2] - The central - southern sugar - cane producing area in Brazil has had some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered [34] 3.3 India - Indian sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The monsoon rains have basically subsided, and the overall sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation, cutting, and pressing [3] - After the monsoon, the recent sunny weather in India is favorable for sugar - cane pressing [42] 3.4 Thailand - Thai sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The rainy season has passed, and the dry and sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation [5] - The current sunny weather in Thailand is beneficial for sugar - cane sugar accumulation [53] 3.5 Global Sugar - Cane Production and Distribution - China's southern sugar - cane planting area is relatively stable, while northern beet planting area is determined by farmers based on planting income. Guangxi is China's largest sugar - producing area, accounting for over 60%, and Chongzuo is the sugar capital, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - cane area [65] - Brazil has the largest sugar - cane planting area globally. About 50% - 60% of its sugar - cane is used for ethanol production, and its sugar output depends on the profit ratio of sugar and ethanol. It is also the world's largest sugar exporter, with exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its output [67] - India is the world's second - largest sugar producer, and its output is highly variable due to natural factors. It is also the world's largest sugar consumer, and its output determines whether it exports sugar [67] - Thailand is usually the world's second - largest sugar exporter after Brazil. Although its output is around 10 million tons, its exports account for 70% - 85% of its output [67] 3.6 Sugar - Cane Growth Cycle and Conditions - The growth cycle of sugar - cane includes germination, seedling, tillering - elongation, maturity, and harvest stages, each with specific temperature, precipitation, and light requirements [60]
南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告:巴西中南部降水偏少,不利于甘蔗拔节
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 11:10
2025年12月01日 本周重要气象提示——中国 12月是我国南方地区进入集中开榨期,晴朗的天气有利于甘蔗糖分的积累和甘蔗的砍运。 截至11月27日,广西已经有21家糖厂开榨,同比减少36家,日榨产15万吨,同比减少31.6万吨。 当前广西、云南地区整体天气较为干燥,有利于糖分积累。 本周重要气象提示——巴西 南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——巴西中南部降水偏少不利于甘蔗拔节 边舒扬(投资咨询资格证号:Z0012647) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 当前巴西中南部进入甘蔗的压榨后期,对于当前需要收获的甘蔗而言,需要晴朗少雨的天气,有利于机 械收割,减少甘蔗含水量,提升蔗糖分。需要昼夜温差大,有利于甘蔗糖分转化与累积。 巴西中南部现在逐步进入雨季,压榨量开始下降,不过近期降水又有所减少。 巴西中南部近期降水减少,对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响,不利于甘蔗的拔节。 本周重要气象提示——印度 当前印度甘蔗处于工艺成熟期,正是糖分积累的冲刺阶段,甘蔗停止营养生长,茎秆蔗糖浓度达到年度 峰值,汁液浓稠度最佳,即将步入榨糖黄金窗口期。印度马邦、卡邦已于11月开始压榨。 理想的降雨条件是日降雨量<1 ...