白糖进出口政策
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光大期货软商品日报(2025 年11月11日)-20251111
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with new progress in the US government ending the shutdown and fluctuating expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The USDA11 monthly report will be released this week. In the domestic market, there are both long and short factors, with supply pressure from the characteristics of seasonal production and annual sales and a high - yield expectation, and support from cost and expectations. The cost of lint in southern Xinjiang is high, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken, and the annual cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose, with the inventory - to - sales ratio expected to decline year - on - year [1]. - Sugar is also expected to remain volatile. The Indian government has allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The US government's possible end of the shutdown has boosted market sentiment and sugar prices. The key for the domestic market lies in the import link, and the domestic futures price shows a sign of approaching the upper limit of the range, with attention on whether it can break through the 5,500 yuan/ton pressure level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton rose 1.13% to 64.24 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.04% to 13,580 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 6,107 lots to 570,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,440 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: The Indian government allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was in the range of 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of raw sugar rose slightly to 14.26 cents/pound [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 0, up 10; the main contract basis was 1,264, down 15. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7, and the national spot price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 67, up 10; the main contract basis was 285, up 12. The spot price in Nanning was 5,760 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou it was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 30 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,294, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,391 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,671 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,889 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,864 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,985 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.4, down 0.1. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30.2, down 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 10, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,663, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,305 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., to visually display the price trends and related data changes of cotton and sugar [7][16]