光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2026 年 0 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 p 2 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 供应端：2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花产量预计值均同比下降。 1、2026年USDA农业展望论坛中，预计2026/27年度全球棉花产量2526万吨，同比下降3.2%。2、预计2026/27年度美国棉花产量296万吨，同比下降2.3%。3、预计 2026/27年度中国棉花产量697万吨，同比下降8.6%，降幅略超出国内主流预测。4、截至2月26日，全国棉花公检量748万吨，同比增加94.83万吨。 棉花：波动加剧，未来仍可期 总 结 需求端：节后纺织企业开机负荷持续回升，依据库存数据反推棉花消费量当月值维持较高水平。 1、12月，我国服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类商品零售额1661亿元，同比上涨0.6%，1-12月累计零售额为15215亿元，同比上涨3.2%。12月社零同比增长0.9%，1-12月社零累 计同比增长3.7%。2、截至2月27日当周，纱线综合 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万 吨，同比减少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少 5.2%。USDA展望预期偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，叠加美棉周度签约量再创新高，春节 假期外盘强势收复65美分/磅整数关口。后续需持续关注新季供应方面的题材。国内方面，本周国内纺 织市场预计陆续复工，市场交易有望逐步恢复。中长期看，下游纱锭产能扩张带来棉花消耗提高，本年 度国内预计维持高产量和强消费预期，供需预计偏平衡，由于结转库存低位，年度末仍有库存趋紧的可 能性。而且2026/27年度新疆棉花种植面积将迎来结构性压缩，中长期棉价中枢仍有望上移。后续重点 关注新年度种植面积缩减幅度、目标价格补贴政策发布情况。 策略 来源：华泰期货 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15350元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，3128B 棉新疆到厂价16548元 ...

巴基斯坦和阿富汗在边境激烈交火 各称造成对方大量伤亡 据央视报道，当地时间2月26日晚，巴基斯坦和阿富汗在两国边境地区爆发激烈交火。巴基斯坦称打死 36名阿方武装人员，阿富汗称打死55名巴方士兵。27日凌晨，巴方发起空袭，冲突仍在持续。 阿富汗政府发言人穆贾希德26日晚在社交媒体发文称，为回应巴基斯坦军方"挑衅"，阿方打击巴方边境 地区军事设施。截至当晚10时，阿军已夺取巴方15处军事哨所。 阿富汗国防部26日深夜发布消息称，阿方在两国边境地区开展的军事行动已打死55名巴方士兵。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，来看一下中东地区最新消息。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部26日发表声明称，阿方"误判形势"，在巴基斯坦西北部开伯尔-普什图省的两国 交界地区多个地点"无端"发动炮击，巴方立即予以有效回击，阿方武装人员在多个地点遭到打击。初步 报告显示，阿方伤亡惨重，多个哨所和装备被摧毁。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部长阿陶拉·塔拉尔27日凌晨在社交媒体发文称，这一正在持续的边境冲突中，至 少36名阿富汗武装人员被打死，巴方2名安全人员殉职。 据阿富汗方面消息，阿富汗东部与巴基 ...

早上好，来看一下中东地区最新消息。 巴基斯坦和阿富汗在边境激烈交火各称造成对方大量伤亡 据央视报道，当地时间2月26日晚，巴基斯坦和阿富汗在两国边境地区爆发激烈交火。巴基斯坦称打死 36名阿方武装人员，阿富汗称打死55名巴方士兵。27日凌晨，巴方发起空袭，冲突仍在持续。 阿富汗政府发言人穆贾希德26日晚在社交媒体发文称，为回应巴基斯坦军方"挑衅"，阿方打击巴方边境 地区军事设施。截至当晚10时，阿军已夺取巴方15处军事哨所。 阿富汗国防部26日深夜发布消息称，阿方在两国边境地区开展的军事行动已打死55名巴方士兵。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部26日发表声明称，阿方"误判形势"，在巴基斯坦西北部开伯尔-普什图省的两国 交界地区多个地点"无端"发动炮击，巴方立即予以有效回击，阿方武装人员在多个地点遭到打击。初步 报告显示，阿方伤亡惨重，多个哨所和装备被摧毁。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部长阿陶拉·塔拉尔27日凌晨在社交媒体发文称，这一正在持续的边境冲突中，至 少36名阿富汗武装人员被打死，巴方2名安全人员殉职。 据阿富汗方面消息，阿富汗东部与巴基斯坦接壤的霍斯特、库纳尔和楠格哈尔三个省份最近几日均处于 间歇性交火状态。 此前有消 ...

关税下调叠加下年度供需缩紧,郑棉增仓大涨 2026/02/24 份 是譜雯 究 从业资格号:F3083970 员 投资咨询号: Z0016293 价格表现 近期宏观与产业利好共振。 宏观方面,关税下调,提振大宗商品氛围。新华社报道,当地时间2月20日,美国最高法院以6票对3票的结果裁 定,特朗普政府依据"国际紧急经济权利法"IEEPA征收的大规模关税失效。对此,特朗普宣布将依据美国《1974年 贸易法》第122条、从2026年2月24日起〈有效期150天）,推出新的10%全球临时关税,随后上调至15%（上限即为 15%)。由此,美对中去年起加征的20%关税(10%的基础关税、在10%以上暂缓征收的对等关税,以及10%"芬太尼" 关税)已失效,降至15%。 产业方面,USDA农业展望论坛对26/27年度首份预期报告利好。根据USDA、USDA农业展望论坛预计,26/27年度, 全球棉花总产预期同比减少3.2%,消费同比增加1.2%,期末库存同比减少5.2%,库销比同比下降6.3%。预计26/27年 度,美棉种植面积预计同比增1.3%,收获面积同比减少2.2%,单产持平,美棉总产预期296万吨,同比减少2.3%, ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉上涨0.55%，报收65.5美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨3.8%，报收15285元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比增加92446手至75.94万手。棉花3128B现货价格指数16205元/吨，较前一日上调415元/吨。节 后首个交易日，郑棉增仓上行，我们认为主要驱动如下：1、国内春假长假期间，ICE美棉期价上涨超 2%，对国内棉价有一定影响。2、USDA2月农业展望论坛预计2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花库销 比均同比下降，即2026/27年度全球多个棉花主产国供需格局将同比收窄。3、国内种植面积调减及目标 价格政策预期，现在已经是2月下旬，再有一个月左右时间国内新棉就将开始种植，植棉面积调控细则 逐渐明朗，目标价格补贴政策调整仍有预期。综合来看，我们认为后续内外棉共振程度或逐渐增强，短 期难现持续单边行情，但中长期来看，我们认为内外棉价上方均有一定空间。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证，也 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cotton planting area in the US may remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to whether the planting area in the Southern Hemisphere will decrease [2][105]. - There is uncertainty about the cotton planting area under policy guidance. Although the market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the planting area in 2026, it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [2][111]. - The international economic and trade environment is gradually improving, and the phased easing of Sino - US trade relations reduces export tariffs, improving the export outlook for textiles. Coupled with the continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, it is beneficial for domestic cotton consumption [2][111]. - The cotton price was at a low level for a long time in the 2024/2025 season, and the current valuation is in a historically low range. As the supply - demand pattern improves and market sentiment recovers, valuation repair will be an important driving force for price increases [2][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **ICE Narrow - Range Fluctuation**: In 2025, the US cotton production decreased year - on - year. Due to continuous Sino - US tariff conflicts and China's small volume of signing US cotton contracts, the ICE US cotton continuous contract showed a fluctuating trend, mostly in the range of 65 - 68 cents. After the US government's record - breaking shutdown, the price center of ICE US cotton moved down since the third quarter, generally maintaining in the range of 63 - 66 cents [10]. - **ZCE First Declined and Then Rose, with Overall Low Valuation**: Supported by the downstream raw material replenishment and order - grabbing expectations, Zhengzhou cotton rose moderately at the beginning of the year. Affected by tariffs, it started to decline in late February, especially after the US announced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the beginning of April, Zhengzhou cotton tumbled. After the Geneva talks between China and the US in early May, Zhengzhou cotton soared. With the marginal weakening of the negative impact of tariffs and concerns about the supply before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise until late July. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of new cotton production increase, the overall increase was not significant [10][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Output Increased Slightly Year - on - Year, Focus on the Cotton Planting Area in the Southern Hemisphere - **Global Cotton Ending Stocks Increased, with Overall Low Pressure**: According to the December USDA report, compared with the previous month, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 120,000 bales, the production estimate decreased by 290,000 bales, and the consumption estimate decreased by 270,000 bales, with the ending stocks estimate increasing by 40,000 bales. In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 1.21 million bales year - on - year, the production estimate increased by 510,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 320,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 1.36 million bales, but the overall pressure was not great [12]. - **Improved Import Demand for Textiles and Clothing in Europe and the US**: - **Consumer Confidence**: In November, the US Michigan consumer confidence index was 51, down 2.6 points month - on - month and had been declining for three consecutive months, rising to 53.3 in December. The EU consumer confidence index was - 13.6 in November, basically flat month - on - month, and - 12.4 in December, down 1.2 points month - on - month and up 5.1 points year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the same period in the past three years since March [14]. - **Import Volume**: In September, the EU's textile and clothing imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the US were 5.66 billion euros, up 380 million euros month - on - month and slightly up 50 million euros year - on - year. From January to September, the EU's cumulative imports from these four countries were 43.675 billion euros, up 4.213 billion euros year - on - year. In September, the US imported a total of $10.582 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down $1.161 billion year - on - year, a decrease of 9.89%. From January to September, the US's cumulative imports were $90.413 billion, down $210 million year - on - year. China's share in the US market dropped significantly, with cumulative imports from China being $16.912 billion, down $6.352 billion year - on - year, and the market share dropping by 6.96 percentage points compared with the same period last year [16]. - **开机率 in Southeast Asia**: The开机率 of Indian and Vietnamese spinning mills showed a downward trend, while that of Pakistani spinning mills showed an upward trend and was at the highest level in the same period in the past three years, performing the best [22][26]. - **Slow Progress of US Cotton Export Sign - ups**: - **High Ending Stocks and Limited Production Adjustment Space**: In December, compared with November, the US cotton production estimate decreased by 150,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 100,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. The 2025/2026 US cotton planting area was expected to be 9.3 million acres, the harvested area was estimated to be 7.37 million acres, the yield per acre was estimated to be 929 pounds, and the total production was 14.268 million bales, down 145,000 bales year - on - year [29]. - **Slow Overall Sign - ups and a Sharp Drop in China's Sign - ups**: As of the week of November 13, the weekly sign - up of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week, up 10% from the four - week average, and up 22% year - on - year. The total sign - up volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.2706 million tons, accounting for 49% of the annual predicted total export volume, 12 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's total sign - up volume was 37,000 tons, a significant decrease of 74% compared with the same period last year [37][42]. - **Slow US Cotton Inspection**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower year - on - year. Considering the 10% production reduction this year, the inspection speed was comparable to that of last year [45]. - **Supply - Demand Situation in Other Cotton - Producing Countries**: - **Accumulated Inventory in India**: In the 2025/26 season, India's cotton beginning stocks increased by 710,000 bales year - on - year, the export volume estimate was basically flat year - on - year, the import volume estimate decreased slightly by 240,000 bales year - on - year, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 500,000 bales year - on - year to the highest level in the past three years [50]. - **Divergent Estimates of Brazilian Cotton Production**: Brazilian institutions had different forecasts for the increase or decrease of Brazilian cotton production in 2025/26, but the market expected that the cotton planting area in Brazil would be difficult to increase this season. The USDA report showed that the Brazilian cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 18.75 million bales, a 10% increase year - on - year [58][60]. - **Probable Decrease in Australian Cotton Production**: Affected by factors such as insufficient irrigation water supply, poor soil moisture during the sowing period, rising planting costs, and better returns from competing crops, Australia's cotton planting area was expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season. The latest USDA report showed that Australia's cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 4.5 million bales, a 2.3% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Domestic Market Supply - Demand Situation - **Substantial Increase in Production**: - **Increased Production and Low Imports**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production estimate increased by 1.5 million bales year - on - year to 33.5 million bales, reaching a new high since 2013, and consumption decreased slightly by 500,000 bales to 38.5 million bales. Imports were expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 320,000 bales year - on - year to 351.62 million bales, at a high level in the past five years [64]. - **Non - Concentrated Pima Cotton Costs and Faster Sales**: As of December 11, the national Pima cotton processing rate was 84%, 2.2 percentage points higher year - on - year, and the sales rate was 41.6%, 23.5 percentage points higher year - on - year [68]. - **Flat Commercial Stocks Year - on - Year**: As of the end of November, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 4.68 million tons, a significant increase of 1.753 million tons month - on - month due to the listing of new cotton, and basically flat year - on - year, at the highest level in the same period in recent years [72]. - **First Decline and Then Rise in the Domestic - Foreign Price Difference and a Sharp Drop in Cotton Imports**: In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, down 10,000 tons month - on - month and 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a significant decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 67.5% [76]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand and Poor Exports**: - **Recovery of Cotton Spinning PMI in the Fourth Quarter**: In November, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased slightly by 2 points month - on - month, and the decline was significantly narrower than in the same period of last year and the year before. The overall trend of cotton spinning PMI was similar to that of last year, not as good as in 2023, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [86]. - **Poor Overall Spinning Mill Operation**: The domestic spinning mill operation load was basically at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years this year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. As of this week, the spinning mill operation load index was 51, and the finished - product inventory was 27.6 days. The cloth mill operation rate reached a phased high in early April and then fluctuated and declined, and started to recover in August. As of this week, the cloth mill operation load index was 51.7, and the finished - product inventory was 31.2 days [87]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand**: In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 147.08 billion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1.20528 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than in the same period last year [95]. - **Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Textile and Clothing Exports, with Overall Declines in Exports to the US and ASEAN**: In November, domestic textile and clothing exports were $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 7 percentage points narrower than in the previous month. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were $267.79 billion, a slight 1.9% year - on - year decrease. Exports to ASEAN and the US decreased significantly, while exports to the EU market remained stable [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Possible Stable but Slightly Declining US Cotton Planting Area, Focus on Whether the Southern Hemisphere's Area Will Decrease**: Based on the soybean/cotton and corn/cotton price - ratio trends, the current price ratios are significantly higher than last year. Judging from the price ratios alone, the US cotton planting area in 2026 is likely to remain stable with a slight decline compared to 2025. The Brazilian cotton planting area is expected to be difficult to increase this season, and the Australian cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season [2][105]. - **Uncertainty about the Cotton Planting Area under Policy Guidance**: In 2026, a new cotton target price will be formulated. The market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the cotton planting area in 2026, but it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [111].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with new progress in the US government ending the shutdown and fluctuating expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The USDA11 monthly report will be released this week. In the domestic market, there are both long and short factors, with supply pressure from the characteristics of seasonal production and annual sales and a high - yield expectation, and support from cost and expectations. The cost of lint in southern Xinjiang is high, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken, and the annual cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose, with the inventory - to - sales ratio expected to decline year - on - year [1]. - Sugar is also expected to remain volatile. The Indian government has allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The US government's possible end of the shutdown has boosted market sentiment and sugar prices. The key for the domestic market lies in the import link, and the domestic futures price shows a sign of approaching the upper limit of the range, with attention on whether it can break through the 5,500 yuan/ton pressure level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton rose 1.13% to 64.24 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.04% to 13,580 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 6,107 lots to 570,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,440 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: The Indian government allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was in the range of 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of raw sugar rose slightly to 14.26 cents/pound [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 0, up 10; the main contract basis was 1,264, down 15. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7, and the national spot price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 67, up 10; the main contract basis was 285, up 12. The spot price in Nanning was 5,760 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou it was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 30 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,294, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,391 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,671 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,889 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,864 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,985 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.4, down 0.1. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30.2, down 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 10, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,663, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,305 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., to visually display the price trends and related data changes of cotton and sugar [7][16]