2025-09-05 产业链操作建议 场外报价 行为导向 买卖 套保比例(%) 入场价格 参与角色 情得向 现货做口 策略推荐 套保衍生品 相关场外产品 | | | | | 按原料采购量折算，按比例的买入棉花 看涨期权进行对冲以防未来将棉采购价 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北花厂 | 采购管理 | 采购籽棉，担心棉花价格上涨 | 후 | | CF601C14600 | 买入 | 100 | 100 | | | | | | 大幅上涨 | | | | | | 车花厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心棉花价格下跌 | 电 | 棉价重心或上移，可以按比例买入虚值 | CF601C15600 | 東出 | 100 | 50 | | | | | | 看跌期权以防价格出现极端下跌，同时 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出虚值看涨期权收取一定权利金 | CF601P13400 | 买人 | 100 | 50 | | 贸易向 | 采购管理 | 建库存，寻求低价买入棉花 | BH | 棉价重心或上移，按比例买入期 ...

Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures showed a slight decline and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also dropped slightly overnight. The subsequent focus should be on the external market trends, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - The global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. In the short - term, Zhengmian may have some upward space, but high - level risks should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the room for cotton price increase is limited due to the high inventory and the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad [14]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The main contract of Zhengmian 2509 fell 0.67%, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ICE cotton futures dropped 0.74% overnight, closing at 68.23 cents/pound [2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,576 (-57) sheets, including 9,226 (-39) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - The China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index rebounded above the boom - bust line in June, reaching 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from May. Among the 7 sub - indices, the raw material procurement, raw material inventory, production, and enterprise operation indices were above the critical point, the product sales and product inventory indices were below the critical point, and the enterprise confidence index was at the critical point [3][4]. - As of the week ending July 22, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 64,278 (+344) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 91,528 (+2,511) sheets, changing from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 218,828 (+7,061) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 12.5%, down 0.6 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked, delivered, and processed lint cotton were all 6.676 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 773,000 tons and increases of 583,000 tons compared to the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.194 million tons and an increase of 1.03 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [5]. - On July 25, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of Indian cotton was 11,100 bales (170 kg per bale), or 1,887 tons. Since the 2024/25 season (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of Indian cotton was 29,938,100 bales, or 5,089,477 tons [5]. 3. Data Charts - The reports include charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 4. Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff policy will continue to affect the global economy. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose expectation. Zhengmian lacks a clear driving force and maintains a volatile trend. In the short - term, there may be some upward space, but high - level risks should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory and loose supply - demand pattern limit the upward space of cotton prices [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures edged up slightly and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also rose slightly after the latest USDA raised the forecast for US cotton production. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential due to the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 0.14%, with the final closing price at 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The US cotton rose 0.66% overnight, closing at 68.74 cents/pound. The latest USDA raised the US cotton production forecast, leading to a slight increase in ICE cotton futures [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 25, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,615 (-57) sheets, including 9,265 (-72) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+15) valid forecasts [3]. - As of July 24, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises was 31.7 days, up 0.63% week - on - week, reaching a three - month high and higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [3]. - As of July 24, 2025, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year - on - year and 583,000 tons more than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.44 million tons, an increase of 1.194 million tons year - on - year and 1.03 million tons more than the average of the past four years [5]. - In June 2025, Shanghai's top ten department stores sold 134,100 pieces of clothing, a month - on - month decrease of 65,300 pieces (32.74%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26,900 pieces (16.70%). The total sales amount was 99 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38 million yuan (27.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26 million yuan (20.51%). The average selling price was 739.52 yuan/piece, up 7.39% month - on - month and down 4.58% year - on - year [6]. - As of July 24, the total inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 353,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.28%. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was about 288,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.33% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped for six consecutive weeks to 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, while the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The improvement in unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy [15]. - The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. In the next one to two weeks, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas may be unfavorable for cotton growth, which could impact production and market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential, but the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices in the medium - to - long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou Cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a sideways movement with a slight decline at the end. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The overall market sentiment is weak due to good climate in the US cotton - growing areas and a generally weak agricultural products market. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation, and the upward driving force for cotton prices is insufficient in the short - term. Long - term support for price increases is limited due to high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies, as well as the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, China's main cotton - growing area [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It showed a sideways movement throughout the day with a slight decline before the close. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The US cotton - growing areas have good climate, and the agricultural products market is generally weak, leading to a low - sentiment market. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,695 (- 34) sheets, including 9,382 (- 54) registered warehouse receipts and 313 (+20) valid forecasts [3]. - According to the June 2025 cotton textile enterprise survey report by the China Cotton Association, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded in June, the cotton spot basis was firm, but the downstream market did not follow the price increase. The yarn - cotton price difference narrowed again, and textile enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous month. Among them, 21.3% of enterprises increased their cotton inventory, 39.6% decreased it, and 39.1% kept it basically unchanged [3][4]. - The finished product inventory of textile enterprises increased in June, while the raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.2 days, an increase of 4.9 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 36.6 days, an increase of 3.7 days from the previous month [4]. - The demand for textiles continued to weaken in June. Some yarn mills started to implement production - limiting measures, and the output decreased month - on - month. However, due to a higher national production capacity base than last year, the output still increased year - on - year. The yarn price continued to fall, and the operating difficulties of enterprises increased. The subsequent operating rate may continue to decline. The yarn sales rate was 69%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - From July 24 to 30, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high - temperature weather of 35 - 37°C, with the highest temperature in some areas reaching over 40°C and even over 45°C in parts of Turpan and Hami. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll - setting stage, and there is a high or very high risk of high - temperature heat damage in cotton - growing areas [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The reports provide data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, but no detailed analysis of these charts is provided in the text [6][9][11][14]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - On July 22, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan through social media, reducing the original 25% reciprocal tariff rate to 15%. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open up its agricultural product markets such as rice. The Japanese Prime Minister will listen to a detailed report and may have further communication with Trump. The Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool to ease domestic economic problems. - The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation. The Zhengzhou cotton continued to move sideways, with insufficient upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, the main cotton - growing area. The current situation of loose supply - demand at home and abroad will not change, and the high inventory level limits the upward space for cotton prices in the long - term [16].

Market Review - Cotton futures for the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.04% to 12,900 CNY/ton, while ICE cotton fell by 0.96% to 66.73 cents/pound. Domestic spot prices decreased by 0.1% to 14,124 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The USDA report indicates that from April 25 to May 1, the net export contracts for U.S. cotton for the 2024/25 season were 14,900 tons, a 39% increase from the previous week but a 50% decrease from the four-week average [2] - As of May 2, the CFTC data shows that the ON-call unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton were 50,451 contracts, an increase of 1,165 contracts week-on-week, while unpriced buy orders rose by 1,346 contracts to 87,656 [2] - Brazil's export data revealed that in April, cotton exports reached 239,145.21 tons, with an average daily export of 11,957.26 tons, a 9% increase compared to the daily average of 10,973.14 tons in April of the previous year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, the domestic cotton spinning industry's consumption peak has ended, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates, with a significant year-on-year decrease. Despite low import levels, cotton inventory continues to decrease slightly, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [3] - Hongyuan Futures notes that optimism regarding the first trade negotiations between China and the U.S. has waned, shifting focus to the bleak outlook for U.S. cotton demand. The results of trade negotiations between the EU, Japan, and the U.S. have been unsatisfactory, and significant progress in the upcoming China-U.S. talks is unlikely [3] - If U.S. tariffs remain high, such as at 50%, the significance of negotiations diminishes. Therefore, the recent rebound in Zheng cotton prices may be driven by psychological expectations, leading to potential volatility in cotton prices [3]