软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 1.13%，报收 64.24 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13580 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 6107 手至 57.02 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14440 元/吨，较前一日下降 25 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是近期市场关 | | | | 注重点，美国政府结束停摆有新进展。美联储 12 月降息预期仍有波动，扰动市场 | | | | 情绪。此外，USDA11 月报将于本周公布，持续关注。国内市场方面，郑棉依旧 | | | 棉花 | 维持震荡走势，我们认为当前市场多空因素均有，暂无明确方向性驱动。上方压 | 震荡 | | | 力主要在于供应端，棉花季产年销的特性叠加年度丰产预期决定当前供应压力较 | | | | 大。下方支撑主要在于成本与预期，南疆地区籽棉收购价格偏高，折皮棉成本大 | | | | 部分在 14000-15000 元/吨。预期方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, suggesting investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price rebounds due to the support of the seed cotton purchase price and the low commercial inventory, but there is a certain hedging pressure in the short - term. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the dull demand, the price is likely to show a bearish trend [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 285 - 300 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. China's cotton production is expected to be around 750 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 10%, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is expected to be 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market is trading lightly this week, with most spinning mills making rigid purchases [5] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the commercial cotton inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. As of October 24, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises can be used for 11.17 days, up from 10.25 days last week [5] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, the total of registered warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for Zhengzhou cotton is 12.75 million tons, up from 11.34 million tons on October 17 [5] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,540 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,110 yuan/ton [5] - **Cost**: In 2025, the cotton planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang is approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton is stable at around 7.1 yuan/kg [5] - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and the consumer confidence index continued to decline. In China, policies to boost domestic demand are being strengthened, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5] 3.2 Week - to - Week Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.14% [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 88.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons, imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, consumption is expected to decline slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 3.57% year - on - year [13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - quality rate of US cotton is 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the weather is unlikely to have an impact [16] - **9 - Month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg, the estimated production is around 750 million tons, the cotton quality is better than last year, the purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang is at a three - year low [25] - **Cotton Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume decreased by 69.7% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 67.17% year - on - year [26] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume decreased by 36.2% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 15.5% year - on - year [28] - **China's Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, the cotton commercial inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The cotton market is in an oscillating upward phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. In the short term, the macro - sentiment is improving, demand is seasonally picking up, and social inventory is continuously decreasing, providing phased support. In the medium to long term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving, domestic production may remain high, demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand situation is also expected to improve. Therefore, the short - term cotton price is supported, and the medium - to - long - term center is expected to move up. It is recommended to be long after adjustments [6]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the pandemic, cotton consumption was affected, while production remained high, leading to inventory accumulation and a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was high, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable. In 2025/26, production is expected to be high, demand may recover, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. According to the August data of the Cotton Information Network, in 2025/26, production is expected to be high, consumption will slightly decrease, imports will recover, and the ending inventory will increase [12]. - **New cotton growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached a recent high. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the new cotton growth was generally in good condition. Some hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has started to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The market is in a de - stocking period, and the commercial inventory has significantly decreased. However, the industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is not low. There are concerns about potential tightness in the phased structural supply. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [24][27]. - **Import situation**: The domestic cotton production and sales have a gap, and imported cotton is needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In July 2025, the cotton import volume was 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month and a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 52 million tons, a 74.2% decrease from the same period last year [34][37]. Downstream Demand - **Overall situation**: Overseas interest rate cuts are beneficial to demand, and the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations is expected to improve the foreign trade situation. Domestic policies are boosting the economy, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. However, recently, new orders for downstream gauze are insufficient, the operating load is still low, and the finished - product inventory is still at a high level year - on - year, indicating pressure in the industrial chain operation [42]. - **Export and retail data**: In July 2025, the export of textiles and clothing was 2.6766 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease and a 2.01% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export was 1.0041 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase. In July, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and knitted textiles were 980.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase and a 24.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 831.1 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [43][45]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - In 2023, the state reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stabilizing effect of the state reserve cotton on the market [49]. Global Supply and Demand - **Global situation**: In the 2024/26 period, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will significantly recover, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will slightly rise. In 2025/26, global production is expected to decrease, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the harvest period with an optimistic yield expectation, while the major producers in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growing period. Some US cotton - producing areas are experiencing drought, and the sowing in India is behind schedule [58]. - **US situation**: In the 2024/25 period, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to decrease, the yield per unit is expected to decline, but production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but future demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [59]. - **Other countries**: In the 2024/25 period, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. As of August 30, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 period was 10.847 million hectares, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. Spread and Basis - The data on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5, 9 - 1, 5 - 9 spreads) and basis (such as 01, 05, 09 basis) are provided, showing their historical trends and fluctuations [73][78].

Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures showed a slight decline and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also dropped slightly overnight. The subsequent focus should be on the external market trends, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - The global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. In the short - term, Zhengmian may have some upward space, but high - level risks should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the room for cotton price increase is limited due to the high inventory and the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad [14]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The main contract of Zhengmian 2509 fell 0.67%, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ICE cotton futures dropped 0.74% overnight, closing at 68.23 cents/pound [2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,576 (-57) sheets, including 9,226 (-39) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - The China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index rebounded above the boom - bust line in June, reaching 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from May. Among the 7 sub - indices, the raw material procurement, raw material inventory, production, and enterprise operation indices were above the critical point, the product sales and product inventory indices were below the critical point, and the enterprise confidence index was at the critical point [3][4]. - As of the week ending July 22, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 64,278 (+344) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 91,528 (+2,511) sheets, changing from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 218,828 (+7,061) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 12.5%, down 0.6 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked, delivered, and processed lint cotton were all 6.676 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 773,000 tons and increases of 583,000 tons compared to the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.194 million tons and an increase of 1.03 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [5]. - On July 25, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of Indian cotton was 11,100 bales (170 kg per bale), or 1,887 tons. Since the 2024/25 season (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of Indian cotton was 29,938,100 bales, or 5,089,477 tons [5]. 3. Data Charts - The reports include charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 4. Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff policy will continue to affect the global economy. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose expectation. Zhengmian lacks a clear driving force and maintains a volatile trend. In the short - term, there may be some upward space, but high - level risks should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory and loose supply - demand pattern limit the upward space of cotton prices [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures edged up slightly and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also rose slightly after the latest USDA raised the forecast for US cotton production. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential due to the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 0.14%, with the final closing price at 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The US cotton rose 0.66% overnight, closing at 68.74 cents/pound. The latest USDA raised the US cotton production forecast, leading to a slight increase in ICE cotton futures [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 25, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,615 (-57) sheets, including 9,265 (-72) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+15) valid forecasts [3]. - As of July 24, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises was 31.7 days, up 0.63% week - on - week, reaching a three - month high and higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [3]. - As of July 24, 2025, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year - on - year and 583,000 tons more than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.44 million tons, an increase of 1.194 million tons year - on - year and 1.03 million tons more than the average of the past four years [5]. - In June 2025, Shanghai's top ten department stores sold 134,100 pieces of clothing, a month - on - month decrease of 65,300 pieces (32.74%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26,900 pieces (16.70%). The total sales amount was 99 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38 million yuan (27.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26 million yuan (20.51%). The average selling price was 739.52 yuan/piece, up 7.39% month - on - month and down 4.58% year - on - year [6]. - As of July 24, the total inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 353,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.28%. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was about 288,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.33% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped for six consecutive weeks to 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, while the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The improvement in unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy [15]. - The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. In the next one to two weeks, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas may be unfavorable for cotton growth, which could impact production and market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential, but the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices in the medium - to - long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou Cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a sideways movement with a slight decline at the end. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The overall market sentiment is weak due to good climate in the US cotton - growing areas and a generally weak agricultural products market. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation, and the upward driving force for cotton prices is insufficient in the short - term. Long - term support for price increases is limited due to high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies, as well as the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, China's main cotton - growing area [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It showed a sideways movement throughout the day with a slight decline before the close. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The US cotton - growing areas have good climate, and the agricultural products market is generally weak, leading to a low - sentiment market. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,695 (- 34) sheets, including 9,382 (- 54) registered warehouse receipts and 313 (+20) valid forecasts [3]. - According to the June 2025 cotton textile enterprise survey report by the China Cotton Association, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded in June, the cotton spot basis was firm, but the downstream market did not follow the price increase. The yarn - cotton price difference narrowed again, and textile enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous month. Among them, 21.3% of enterprises increased their cotton inventory, 39.6% decreased it, and 39.1% kept it basically unchanged [3][4]. - The finished product inventory of textile enterprises increased in June, while the raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.2 days, an increase of 4.9 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 36.6 days, an increase of 3.7 days from the previous month [4]. - The demand for textiles continued to weaken in June. Some yarn mills started to implement production - limiting measures, and the output decreased month - on - month. However, due to a higher national production capacity base than last year, the output still increased year - on - year. The yarn price continued to fall, and the operating difficulties of enterprises increased. The subsequent operating rate may continue to decline. The yarn sales rate was 69%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - From July 24 to 30, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high - temperature weather of 35 - 37°C, with the highest temperature in some areas reaching over 40°C and even over 45°C in parts of Turpan and Hami. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll - setting stage, and there is a high or very high risk of high - temperature heat damage in cotton - growing areas [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The reports provide data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, but no detailed analysis of these charts is provided in the text [6][9][11][14]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - On July 22, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan through social media, reducing the original 25% reciprocal tariff rate to 15%. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open up its agricultural product markets such as rice. The Japanese Prime Minister will listen to a detailed report and may have further communication with Trump. The Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool to ease domestic economic problems. - The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation. The Zhengzhou cotton continued to move sideways, with insufficient upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, the main cotton - growing area. The current situation of loose supply - demand at home and abroad will not change, and the high inventory level limits the upward space for cotton prices in the long - term [16].

Market Review - Cotton futures for the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.04% to 12,900 CNY/ton, while ICE cotton fell by 0.96% to 66.73 cents/pound. Domestic spot prices decreased by 0.1% to 14,124 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The USDA report indicates that from April 25 to May 1, the net export contracts for U.S. cotton for the 2024/25 season were 14,900 tons, a 39% increase from the previous week but a 50% decrease from the four-week average [2] - As of May 2, the CFTC data shows that the ON-call unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton were 50,451 contracts, an increase of 1,165 contracts week-on-week, while unpriced buy orders rose by 1,346 contracts to 87,656 [2] - Brazil's export data revealed that in April, cotton exports reached 239,145.21 tons, with an average daily export of 11,957.26 tons, a 9% increase compared to the daily average of 10,973.14 tons in April of the previous year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, the domestic cotton spinning industry's consumption peak has ended, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates, with a significant year-on-year decrease. Despite low import levels, cotton inventory continues to decrease slightly, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [3] - Hongyuan Futures notes that optimism regarding the first trade negotiations between China and the U.S. has waned, shifting focus to the bleak outlook for U.S. cotton demand. The results of trade negotiations between the EU, Japan, and the U.S. have been unsatisfactory, and significant progress in the upcoming China-U.S. talks is unlikely [3] - If U.S. tariffs remain high, such as at 50%, the significance of negotiations diminishes. Therefore, the recent rebound in Zheng cotton prices may be driven by psychological expectations, leading to potential volatility in cotton prices [3]