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迎驾贡酒(603198):中低档酒加快出清,洞藏相对保持平稳
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-26 07:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% in revenue and 18.2% in net profit. The second quarter saw even steeper declines, with revenue down 24.1% and net profit down 35.2% [7] - The company is focusing on clearing out mid-to-low-end liquor products while maintaining stability in its cave-aged series. The company plans to upgrade its product offerings as the current low-end products are aging [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the steady expansion of the Anhui liquor market in the 100-300 RMB price range, with a potential recovery in growth after the clearance of mid-to-low-end products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,771 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 22.99%. However, a decline of 12.63% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2,282 million RMB in 2023, with a growth of 33.85%. A decline of 16.31% is anticipated in 2025, with a gradual recovery thereafter [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 2.85 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 2.71 RMB in 2025, before recovering to 3.38 RMB by 2027 [1] - The current P/E ratio is 16.50 for 2023, projected to rise to 17.38 in 2025, before decreasing to 13.91 by 2027 [1]