证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 迎驾贡酒（603198） 2025 年中报点评：中低档酒加快出清，洞藏 相对保持平稳 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,771 | 7,344 | 6,416 | 6,809 | 7,586 | | 同比（%） | 22.99 | 8.46 | (12.63) | 6.13 | 11.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,282 | 2,589 | 2,167 | 2,349 | 2,707 | | 同比（%） | 33.85 | 13.45 | (16.31) | 8.40 | 15.23 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.85 | 3.24 | 2.71 | 2.94 | 3.38 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.50 | 14.55 | 17.38 | 16.03 | 13.91 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Tab ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.3% of the net profit for the period [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The company's Dongcang series showed steady performance, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 5.71 billion yuan in 2024, up 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.72 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and ordinary liquor revenue was 240 million yuan, down 32.1% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from the external market was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, and external revenue was 330 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 73.9% in 2024, driven by the increased proportion of Dongcang series sales [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5%, with a net profit margin of 40.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Cash receipts from sales in Q1 2025 were 2.21 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, indicating temporary cash flow pressure [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Dongcang series is expected to continue its growth trend, with the company planning to enhance its efforts in cultivating the external market and increasing resource allocation for its products [4] - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 3.27 yuan, 3.50 yuan, and 3.80 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [4] - A target price of 55.59 yuan is set for 2025, based on a 17x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 25.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dingcang" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report highlights a proactive approach to managing cash flow and inventory, ensuring healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 6,771 million RMB, 2024A: 7,344 million RMB, 2025E: 7,378 million RMB, 2026E: 7,862 million RMB, 2027E: 8,685 million RMB [1] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 2,282 million RMB, 2024A: 2,589 million RMB, 2025E: 2,617 million RMB, 2026E: 2,842 million RMB, 2027E: 3,205 million RMB [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2023A: 2.85 RMB, 2024A: 3.24 RMB, 2025E: 3.27 RMB, 2026E: 3.55 RMB, 2027E: 4.01 RMB [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025-2027 are projected to be 14.9, 13.7, and 12.2 respectively [7]