Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," is experiencing a decline, with wholesale prices dropping below 1800 yuan, contrasting sharply with the nearly 20% rise in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price structure of Moutai resembles a pyramid, with a factory price of 969 yuan, a suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, and a market price that fluctuates freely at the top [1]. - The recent price drop primarily affects distributors and retailers, while Moutai's factory price remains unchanged [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Changes - The demand side is witnessing a shift, with the diversification of purchasing channels undermining the pricing power of distributors. In 2016, 94% of Moutai's sales were through distributors, but by mid-2025, direct sales accounted for 41% [3]. - On the supply side, UBS estimates that social inventory of Moutai has reached 130 million bottles, equivalent to 14 to 15 months of sales, leading to a vicious cycle of price decline as inventory floods the market [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Consumption Trends - The number of funds holding Moutai has been declining, and the profits of large-scale liquor companies fell by 10.93% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with only 6 out of 23 listed liquor companies reporting profit growth [5]. - Moutai's consumption is still largely centered around business receptions and gifting, but its status as a "face consumption" product is facing challenges [7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Moutai's long-term value needs to address whether it is a fine wine to be appreciated or merely a financial speculation tool. The current inventory situation and the ongoing shift towards direct sales indicate a painful process of deflating the speculative bubble [7].