2026年1月4日，白酒市场迎来一记反常信号：一边是"i茅台"APP连续四天1499元官方放货"秒空"，抢购页面刷新即无；另一边，53度500毫升飞天茅台2025 年份的批发价却再度跌破1499元大关，报至约1390元/瓶，一周内跌幅超百元。官方渠道一酒难求，批发市场却价格倒挂——这场看似矛盾的行情，正揭开 茅台神话背后的供需裂变。 这场价格倒挂，或许是茅台主动去泡沫化的阵痛，也可能是行业拐点的前兆。对普通消费者而言，1499元喝到真茅台的机会确实在增加；但对依赖价差生存 的渠道商而言，黄金时代或许真的结束了。 过去，"1499元指导价、3000元市场价"是飞天茅台的常态，黄牛囤货、宴席刚需、投资属性共同托起高溢价。但如今，随着"i茅台"持续加大直营投放，每 日数万瓶以原价直达消费者，中间商囤货空间被急剧压缩。业内分析指出，近期放量基本被真实饮用需求消化，而非投机囤积，这虽提升了茅台集团的营收 透明度与利润，却也动摇了经销商赖以生存的价格红利。 飞天仍在，只是不再"飞"得那么高了。 更深层的变化在于消费风向转变。高端宴请减少、反腐持续深化、年轻群体饮酒意愿下降，叠加经济预期谨慎，令"硬通货"茅台的金融属性大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai, once considered "liquid gold," is experiencing a decline, with wholesale prices dropping below 1800 yuan, contrasting sharply with the nearly 20% rise in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price structure of Moutai resembles a pyramid, with a factory price of 969 yuan, a suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, and a market price that fluctuates freely at the top [1]. - The recent price drop primarily affects distributors and retailers, while Moutai's factory price remains unchanged [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Changes - The demand side is witnessing a shift, with the diversification of purchasing channels undermining the pricing power of distributors. In 2016, 94% of Moutai's sales were through distributors, but by mid-2025, direct sales accounted for 41% [3]. - On the supply side, UBS estimates that social inventory of Moutai has reached 130 million bottles, equivalent to 14 to 15 months of sales, leading to a vicious cycle of price decline as inventory floods the market [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Consumption Trends - The number of funds holding Moutai has been declining, and the profits of large-scale liquor companies fell by 10.93% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with only 6 out of 23 listed liquor companies reporting profit growth [5]. - Moutai's consumption is still largely centered around business receptions and gifting, but its status as a "face consumption" product is facing challenges [7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Moutai's long-term value needs to address whether it is a fine wine to be appreciated or merely a financial speculation tool. The current inventory situation and the ongoing shift towards direct sales indicate a painful process of deflating the speculative bubble [7].