Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant collapse due to multiple factors, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a loss of investor confidence [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver TD contract opened at 9168 yuan/kg and closed at 9181 yuan/kg, down 11 yuan from the previous day, marking a narrow trading range with a daily fluctuation of only 0.64%, the lowest of the month [1]. - The domestic and international price gap for silver widened to 120 yuan/kg, the highest premium in nearly a month, indicating that buying silver in Shanghai is nearly 4% more expensive than in New York [1]. - The silver sector saw a significant drop, with 90% of stocks in the sector declining, and the Tonghuashun silver concept index losing 1.36% in a single day [3]. Industry Impact - The global largest photovoltaic silver paste supplier, Heraeus, lowered its third-quarter shipment guidance, reducing capacity utilization from 85% to 70%, signaling a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate has fallen to 65%, with silver plating demand decreasing by 4.2%, leading to a reduction of 120 tons/month in industrial silver usage [3]. - The adoption of silver-coated copper technology in HJT cells has reduced silver consumption from 14 tons to 10 tons per GW, indicating a nearly 30% decrease in silver's role in the photovoltaic sector [3]. Investor Sentiment - The net asset value of the Guotou Ruijin silver futures ETF dropped by 1.54%, with a 3.2% reduction in scale, reflecting ongoing panic among retail investors [5]. - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver futures saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 5200 contracts, indicating a loss of financial premium for silver [5]. External Factors - The strong rise of the US dollar index, which increased by 0.32% to 103.85, was exacerbated by a trade agreement announcement, leading to a market sell-off of safe-haven assets like silver [7]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surpassed 4.3%, creating a higher opportunity cost for holding silver, which has a volatility of 38% compared to the 5% of Treasury bonds [7]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has signaled bearish trends, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential acceleration of selling pressure [8]. - Key support levels for domestic silver TD have shifted down to 9120 yuan, with a breach potentially triggering further selling from quantitative funds [8]. Options Market Activity - On July 29, the open interest for the "9200 yuan put option" surged by 30,000 contracts, indicating a strong bet on prices falling below 9000 yuan, further intensifying market pessimism [9].