截至8月26日，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust的白银持仓量为15274.70吨，较前一交易日减少14.12吨。 | Net Assets of Fund | $18,861,259,140 | Fund Inception | Apr 21, 2006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | | | | | Asset Class | Commodity | | Exchange | NYSE Arca | | | | | | Bloomberg Index Ticker | SLVRLN | | Reference Benchmark | LBMA Silver Price | | | | | | Shares Outstanding | 540,650,000 | | Indicative Basket Amount | 45,400.60 | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | as of Aug 26, 2025 | | | | | | | Tonnes in Trust | 15,27 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/22 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3344.65 | 37.08 | 1347.00 | 1127.00 | 62.71 | 9699.00 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -11.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.24 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 147.31 | 1.94 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3334.45 with a change of 2.05 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 38.07 with a change of -0.02 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1337.00 with a change of 2.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1124.00 with a change of -2.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude is 62.35 with a change of -1.07 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9749.50 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest price of the US Dollar Index is 98.28 with a change of 0.13 [1] - The latest price of EUR/USD is 1.16 with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest price of GBP/USD is 1.35 with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest price of USD/JPY is 147.68 with a change of -0.18 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15805.28 with a change of 18.67 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1149.45 with a change of 11.02 [1] - The latest gold ETF持仓 is 962.21 with a change of -3.16 [1] - The latest silver ETF持仓 is 15339.66 with a change of -16.95 [1] - The latest SGE silver inventory is not provided, and the SGE gold and silver deferred fee payment directions are 1 and 1 respectively, with changes of 0.00 [1]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI business activity index in July 2025 was 50.1%, slightly down from 50.5% in the previous month but similar to the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 1132 billion yuan and the same period last year at 770.7 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 5 billion yuan in July 2025, compared to an increase of 224 billion yuan in the previous month and 26 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in July 2025 was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in July 2025 was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in July 2025 was 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in July 2025 increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - From January to July 2025, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a 20.7% year-on-year increase. Securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a 62.5% increase. In July alone, it was 15.1 billion yuan, a 125% increase from July 2024 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative products like the BPI index futures and the opening up of polyester sector products [2] - Futures prices of many products such as cotton and urea have become important references for national macro - policy making. Many enterprises in different industries use the futures market to manage risks [2] - China's futures market has improved its internationalization level. As of July 2025, there were 24 specific open - ended futures varieties, and some futures companies have achieved 100% foreign ownership [3] - The London Metal Exchange's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated, which is significant for Hong Kong's development as an international financial center and for promoting RMB use in commodity trading [3][4] Metals - The Chinese Foreign Ministry was unaware of reports about lifting rare - earth export controls to India [5] - Gold has had low volatility since June 2025. Global gold ETFs added 397 tons in the first half of the year. Gold prices may be supported by an over 80% probability of a September interest - rate cut [5] - The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 16.95 tons [5] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [5] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach a new high since 2011 and forecasts gold prices to reach $3600 by the end of March 2026 and $3700 by the end of June and September 2026 [6] - On August 18, lead inventory reached a new high in over a month, while zinc, tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shandong plans to raise coke prices, with different increases for different types of coke starting from August 19 [8] - Mexico proposes to restore the North American Steel Committee to improve trade relations with the US and reduce Asian steel imports [8] Energy and Chemicals - On August 19, US crude oil futures fell 1.12%. The decline was affected by the expected US - Russia - Ukraine talks, weak demand from India, and increasing supply pressure [9] - Six government departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the industry's competition order [9] - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 24.17 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [9][10] - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to ensure a good autumn harvest, regulate the agricultural product market, promote farmers' income, and prevent risks [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on preventing and controlling major pests and diseases in autumn crops [12] - New York Arabica coffee futures reached a two - month high due to concerns about Brazil's coffee production [12] - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - Corn yields in Nebraska, US, are expected to be lower than in 2024 [14] - Indonesia opened its market to Brazilian beef and offal [14] - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [14] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [15] Key News - In July 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The cumulative revenue in the first seven months increased by 0.1% year - on - year [16] - Government - funded budget expenditures increased by 31.7% in the first seven months due to the expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan from special bonds and special treasury bonds [16] - Some provinces' audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bonds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [17] - From September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pensions were added [17] - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan to support disaster - affected areas [18] - Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [19] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [19] - There were uncertainties in the principal and interest payment of some bonds, and some companies faced major events such as being presented with a winding - up petition [19] - International credit rating agencies made ratings and outlook adjustments for some countries and companies [19] Bond Market Summary - Bond prices stabilized due to the stock market decline and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds decreased, and treasury bond futures rose [20] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.16%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.37% [20][21] - Most money - market interest rates increased on August 19 [21] - Shibor short - term rates mostly increased [21] - The winning yields of some agricultural and national development bank financial bonds were announced, along with their subscription multiples [22] - Most inter - bank and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds increased [22] - Most European and US bond yields decreased [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1820 on August 20, down 28 points from the previous day. The central parity rate was 7.1359, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index rose 0.12% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [25] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that from May, the bond market has been driven by asset allocation. In August - October, the bond market may face pressure from capital diversion and crowded trading structures [26] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market should focus on defense. Insurance funds may start to accept 10 - year treasury bonds at a yield of 1.8%, while trading funds should wait for opportunities [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects that the central bank's mention of preventing capital idling will not lead to a tightening of the capital market. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant [26] - CITIC Securities reports that the bank wealth - management scale exceeded 32.67 trillion yuan in late July, and it is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan this year [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income expects local bond issuance and net financing to increase significantly in the next period [27][28] - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that bond ETFs may face redemption and selling pressure during market adjustments. Investors can choose more resilient ETFs and take advantage of price discounts [28] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the central bank may restart open - market treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter when the 10 - year treasury bond yield is in a certain range [28] - CICC Research Report states that the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, but the Fed will be cautious due to the risk of "stagflation - like" conditions [29] Today's Bond Market Reminders - On August 20, 142 bonds were listed, 171 bonds were issued, 117 bonds were due for payment, and 112 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [30][31] 4. Stock Market News - On August 20, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock, with the three major indices falling and the North Exchange 50 hitting a new high. Consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%. Oriental甄选's stock price fluctuated greatly. South - bound funds had a large net purchase [32] - Brokers are competing for customers by offering low commission rates [32] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [33] - Foreign institutions are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. Many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market [34] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 new heavy - position stocks [34] - As of August 19, 666 A - share companies released their semi - annual reports, and over 60% achieved year - on - year profit growth [34]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3335.50 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 37.73 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1335.00 with a change of -18.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1126.00 with a change of -14.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 62.80 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9757.00 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 97.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 147.16 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15786.61 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1138.43 with a change of -3.13 [1] - The latest gold ETF holding is 965.37 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest silver ETF holding is 15071.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver inventory is 1368.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1]

Group 1 - Trump's tweet calling for an immediate 300 basis point interest rate cut triggered a significant reaction in global financial markets, leading to a 25-point drop in the dollar index and a $20 per ounce increase in gold prices [1] - The probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being dismissed surged from 16% to 26% within four hours, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical situation with $37 trillion in debt interest payments consuming a quarter of federal tax revenue, and each 1% increase in interest rates costing the government an additional $360 billion annually [1] Group 2 - The FOMC meeting revealed a deep divide among members, with a 9-2 vote against the chair's decision, marking the first public dissent from two members since 1993 [2] - Core CPI rose to 2.9%, driven by Trump's tariff policies, which increased clothing prices by 0.4%, furniture by 1%, and appliances by 1.9% [2] - Central banks globally sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades, reflecting a shift in economic dynamics [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, while emphasizing the importance of controlling inflation [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose to 62.6%, with predictions of four rate cuts under a new chair [5] - The disparity in market performance, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1% and the Nasdaq reaching a new high, symbolizes the ongoing tension between political pressures and market expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by various economic and political factors, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1][4][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, with a focus on controlling inflation, while omitting previous language suggesting potential rate cuts [3][9]. - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 62.6%, with speculation of four rate cuts under a new chairperson [3][9]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve was highlighted by a historic 9:2 vote against the chairperson's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The financial markets exhibited a split behavior, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, driven by tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla [3][4]. - Gold futures prices surged past $3444 per ounce, and a significant increase in silver ETF holdings was noted, indicating a market bet on future monetary easing [3][4]. - The volatility in the markets reflects a broader concern over the potential for a bubble, given the high leverage in the US stock market [3][4]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - Central banks globally sold $36 billion in US Treasury bonds in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, indicating a shift away from the dollar [4][11]. - The concept of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade [4][11]. - The US dollar index has fallen by 9.15% this year, prompting investors to seek ways to mitigate the risks associated with dollar depreciation [4][11]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - The second quarter GDP growth was attributed to a decrease in imports, while domestic demand growth hit a two-and-a-half-year low [7][9]. - Job creation in the private sector exceeded expectations, but the drop in unemployment was due to a reduction in labor supply rather than increased demand [7][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with nearly 90% of businesses planning to pass on costs to consumers, exacerbated by tariffs [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the turmoil in the financial markets triggered by President Trump's unexpected directive for a 300 basis point interest rate cut, the rising probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dismissal, and the surge in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% [1][2]. Group 1: Political Impact - Trump's tweet serves as a public pressure tactic on the Federal Reserve, directly threatening Powell's position, causing the probability of his dismissal to jump from 16% to 26% within four hours [2]. - The market reacted sharply, with gold prices rising by $20 per ounce and the dollar index dropping by 25 points, indicating heightened volatility and uncertainty [2]. - Deutsche Bank issued a warning that Powell's potential dismissal could lead to a 3% drop in the dollar and a 40 basis point increase in long-term Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - A significant internal conflict within the Federal Reserve emerged, with a historic 9-2 vote against Chairman Powell's decision, marking the first time since 1993 that two board members publicly opposed the chairman [4]. - The debate centered around the impact of tariffs on inflation, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9%, highlighting the tension between inflationary pressures and interest rate policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP growth appears strong, but domestic demand growth has fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low, indicating underlying economic weaknesses [5]. - The labor market shows a paradox with 104,000 new private sector jobs added, but the unemployment rate's decline is attributed to a decrease in labor supply rather than increased demand [5]. - Nearly 90% of businesses plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers, suggesting further inflationary pressures ahead [5]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - In April, global central banks sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries, reflecting waning confidence in dollar assets, while accumulating 280 tons of gold, the highest in 20 years [6]. - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar, as evidenced by the EU and ASEAN's efforts to create a trade network independent of the dollar [6]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The financial markets displayed a split reaction, with the Dow Jones index falling nearly 1% while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, symbolizing the diminishing dominance of the dollar [8]. - Nvidia's stock surged by 1.87%, pushing its market cap above $4.3 trillion, while Tesla signed a $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung, fueling enthusiasm in the semiconductor sector [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% aligns with market expectations, but the omission of previous language suggesting potential rate cuts has dampened market sentiment [10]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are strong, with a 62.6% probability, and speculation about the new Fed chair's potential actions to stimulate economic growth [10]. - The looming non-farm payroll data is critical, as a slowdown in job growth could trigger further instability in the dollar's status and the global financial markets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by a $37 trillion national debt and escalating tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as global central banks rapidly accumulate gold reserves [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP data appears strong, but the growth is primarily due to a decrease in imports, with domestic demand growth at its lowest in two and a half years [3]. - The private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding expectations, but the drop in unemployment is mainly due to a reduction in labor supply rather than increased demand [3]. - Interest payments on national debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion, meaning that one out of every four dollars in federal tax revenue will be used for debt servicing [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - A heated nine-hour meeting at the Federal Reserve resulted in a 9-2 vote against an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two board members publicly opposed the chair's decision [5]. - President Trump made an unprecedented visit to the Federal Reserve, indicating rising tensions between the White House and the central bank, with discussions about selecting a new Fed chair already underway [5][6]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is estimated at 62.6%, with predictions of multiple cuts if a new chair is appointed [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq index reached a historic high, with Nvidia's stock price rising 1.87% and its market capitalization surpassing $4.3 trillion [6]. - Gold futures prices surged past $3,444 per ounce, and the largest silver ETF saw a single-day increase of 347.58 tons, the largest in 15 months [6]. - The Deutsche Bank trading floor issued warnings that if Powell were to be dismissed, the dollar could plummet by 3%, leading to a 40 basis point increase in long-term Treasury yields [1][5]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - Global central banks sold $36 billion in US Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [5]. - The dollar's reserve share has dropped from 72% to 58%, while the ASEAN's renminbi settlement rate surged to 38% [5]. - The UK central bank is testing extreme scenarios of a complete collapse of the dollar swap market, indicating significant concerns about the dollar's stability [5].

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3343.85, 38.32, 1337.00, 1122.00, 63.96, and 9774.00 respectively, with changes of -20.55, -0.29, 1.00, -20.00, 1.31, and -68.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, and US Dollar to Japanese Yen are 98.20, 1.16, 1.35, and 147.75 respectively, with changes of 0.42, -0.01, -0.00, and 0.37 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 1150.78, with a change of 15.68; the latest value of Gold ETF holdings is 961.36, with a change of -2.86; the latest value of Silver ETF holdings is 15071.31, with a change of -28.25 [3] - The deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are both 1, with no change [3]