在古埃及，白银的价格一度高于黄金，因为白色的金属要从地中海的另一端通过贸易获取，而黄金在法老的土地上就有生产。之后，随着贸易规模的扩 大，白银就被黄金稳稳压住一头。在金属货币领域，黄金被用做大额支付，而白银则活跃在额度相对较小的支付场景中，后来甚至一度被黄金直接挤出了 货币领域。 来源：中国黄金网 单从今年的表现看，白银是不亚于黄金的，甚至还略胜一筹。有着更强工业属性的白银不仅仅对黄金亦步亦趋，也在努力走出自己的辉煌。著名贵金属银 行花旗集团，最近就将近期白银价格预测上调至每盎司40美元以上，理由是白银的供应趋紧，需求增强。该机构认为持续多年的结构性短缺和不断加剧的 工业需求，都会推动白银价格在未来进一步上涨。在看好白银方面，汇丰银行也和花旗达成了共识。汇丰近期发布报告称，白银将在未来几年拥有潜在强 势。 从光伏电池板到电动汽车，再到生活中随处可见的电子产品，白银的工业需求不断增多。这种金属对于满足不断增长的全球电力需求所需的技术至关重 要。太阳能的需求占去年白银总需求的17％，比10前的5.6％增长了大约两倍。在供应方面，行业数据显示自2016年以来，全球矿山供应量下降了7％，导 致白银市场存在长期结构性短 ...

我很庆幸你能停下脚步花几分钟看我的文章，一点小建议，分享出来希望能帮助到各位投资者。张德盛作为一 位分析师做了这么多年投资，像近两天的行情，我经历过很多次了，你现在的心态我也能猜到八九不离十。不 要怨恨市场，也不要怪自己。做投资，都是想盈利的，也是我们投资的目的，我懂。但是你亏损了，原因很 多，但严重的无非就那几种：不带止损、扛单爆仓，主观意识太强、执行力太差、害怕怀疑心理、否定消极心 理等等，这只是总结的部分，如有上述情况或其他情况，可以和我好好聊聊，相信我一定能为你排忧解难。一 起来看看笔者对黄金的一些见解，希望张德盛对行情的预判可以给大家带来一些帮助。大家好，我是张德盛！ 添加可了解每日行情实时动态！ 国内沪金，积存金走势： 国内黄金今日冲高回落，沪金最高791,最低回落782，积存金784，最低回落776，上周四张德盛也是提示大家 多获利出局了，本周交易的时间要放在周二CPI数据后，等数据影响走出来，才能继续回落多。4小时图中沪金 本周看775支撑，积存金看767的支撑。 国际白银走势分析： 现货白银4小时级别的最新情况，白银价格今日开盘38.3，开盘后白银开始回落，截止目前最低37.8，今日白银 就 ...

Group 1 - The fund has net assets amounting to $17,532,395,413 as of July 31, 2025 [2] - The fund is traded on the NYSE Arca and its reference benchmark is the LBMA Silver Price [2] - The indicative basket amount is 45,416.20 and the basket amount is 45,416.90 as of July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The total ounces in trust are 484,264,685.90, equivalent to 15,062.32 tonnes as of July 31, 2025 [2] - The fund has a premium/discount of -2.72% as of July 30, 2025, with a closing price of $33.51 [2] - The average daily volume over the last 30 days is 23,622,688, with a daily volume of 35,325,633 as of July 30, 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant collapse due to multiple factors, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a loss of investor confidence [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver TD contract opened at 9168 yuan/kg and closed at 9181 yuan/kg, down 11 yuan from the previous day, marking a narrow trading range with a daily fluctuation of only 0.64%, the lowest of the month [1]. - The domestic and international price gap for silver widened to 120 yuan/kg, the highest premium in nearly a month, indicating that buying silver in Shanghai is nearly 4% more expensive than in New York [1]. - The silver sector saw a significant drop, with 90% of stocks in the sector declining, and the Tonghuashun silver concept index losing 1.36% in a single day [3]. Industry Impact - The global largest photovoltaic silver paste supplier, Heraeus, lowered its third-quarter shipment guidance, reducing capacity utilization from 85% to 70%, signaling a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate has fallen to 65%, with silver plating demand decreasing by 4.2%, leading to a reduction of 120 tons/month in industrial silver usage [3]. - The adoption of silver-coated copper technology in HJT cells has reduced silver consumption from 14 tons to 10 tons per GW, indicating a nearly 30% decrease in silver's role in the photovoltaic sector [3]. Investor Sentiment - The net asset value of the Guotou Ruijin silver futures ETF dropped by 1.54%, with a 3.2% reduction in scale, reflecting ongoing panic among retail investors [5]. - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver futures saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 5200 contracts, indicating a loss of financial premium for silver [5]. External Factors - The strong rise of the US dollar index, which increased by 0.32% to 103.85, was exacerbated by a trade agreement announcement, leading to a market sell-off of safe-haven assets like silver [7]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surpassed 4.3%, creating a higher opportunity cost for holding silver, which has a volatility of 38% compared to the 5% of Treasury bonds [7]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has signaled bearish trends, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential acceleration of selling pressure [8]. - Key support levels for domestic silver TD have shifted down to 9120 yuan, with a breach potentially triggering further selling from quantitative funds [8]. Options Market Activity - On July 29, the open interest for the "9200 yuan put option" surged by 30,000 contracts, indicating a strong bet on prices falling below 9000 yuan, further intensifying market pessimism [9].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a popular investment option in the precious metals market this year, driven by rising prices and increased participation from individual investors [1][2][9]. Market Dynamics - The price of silver has surged significantly, with the London silver spot price reaching a 14-year high of $39 per ounce on July 23-24, 2023, and a year-to-date increase of 31% in COMEX silver futures, outperforming gold by 5 percentage points [6][9]. - The rise in silver prices is attributed to global risk aversion, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of a shift in U.S. monetary policy, which have created a favorable macroeconomic environment for silver [6][7]. Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in the sales of silver bars and bullion, with individual investors showing heightened interest in silver investments, as evidenced by a single investor purchasing 210 kilograms of silver for over 1.8 million yuan [3][10][12]. - Financial institutions are responding to this trend by offering various silver products, including silver jewelry and investment silver ingots, to attract retail investors [4][15][19]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts are divided on the future trajectory of silver prices. Some believe there is still upward potential due to strong industrial demand and a favorable gold-silver ratio, while others caution that economic growth concerns may limit long-term price increases [22][24]. - Current forecasts suggest that silver prices could rise to between $42 and $44.5 per ounce in the medium to long term, although short-term fluctuations around the $40 mark are expected [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching over $3,400 per ounce, has ignited the domestic gold market, leading to significant price increases in retail gold products [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spike in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including stalled US-EU tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and declining US Treasury yields, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [5]. - The demand for gold is increasing, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI chips, while supply remains constrained due to slow mining progress [5]. - The gold market is experiencing a significant divide, with recovery agents struggling to liquidate gold, while downstream retailers are hesitant to stock up due to fears of losses [6]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Successful gold investment requires substantial capital and precise market timing, as demonstrated by investors who have profited significantly from strategic buying and selling [3]. - Ordinary investors may find the "golden era" of gold investment elusive, as evidenced by minimal profits from small-scale investments [5]. - The volatility of gold prices poses risks, with a notable drop of $160 in just half a month, highlighting the market's unpredictable nature [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investors should maintain a rational approach, allocating only 5% to 10% of their assets to gold as a hedge against risk [8]. - Practical investment strategies include adhering to specific buying and selling disciplines, such as entering the market during geopolitical crises or when prices exceed certain moving averages [8]. - The gold recovery market is fraught with risks, including potential fraud and significant hidden costs associated with storage and resale [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of $38.94 per ounce, marking the second consecutive day of decrease, although the overall trend remains strong [1] - The anticipated tariff agreement between the EU and the US is expected to reduce the safe-haven demand for silver, while trade negotiations between China, India, South Korea, and the US continue [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have eased, further diminishing the demand for silver [1] Group 2 - The UK government recorded its second-highest monthly borrowing since 1993 in June, driven by debt interest pressures from inflation, which may lead to increased taxes in the autumn budget, posing risks to economic growth [2] - Despite these challenges, the British pound remains favored in the market due to expectations that the Bank of England will initiate a rate cut cycle in August, with several institutions predicting a 25 basis point reduction [2] - The US dollar showed little reaction to the trade agreement with Japan, with the dollar index hovering around 97.45, close to a two-week low, as the market awaits the release of the US July PMI data [2] Group 3 - Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have gained international attention, with a brief meeting in Istanbul yielding some progress on prisoner exchanges, but significant divisions remain on key issues like ceasefire conditions [3] - The likelihood of an EU-US trade agreement before the August 1 deadline appears slim, increasing investor caution amid widespread trade tensions, which continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - The average effective tariff rate in the US has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, contributing to a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in June, raising concerns about inflation and economic growth prospects [3] Group 4 - The recent agreement between the US and Japan, along with the nearing 15% tariff agreement between the US and EU, has led to a cooling of domestic commodity sentiment, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations [4] - Despite the cooling sentiment, silver prices still show support, indicating a generally strong outlook, with specific trading ranges suggested for silver operations [4] - The market is advised to be cautious with bullish positions on silver, particularly around the $39.5 resistance level, while monitoring key support levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge in price, outperforming gold, with a year-to-date increase of over 36%, reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June, the silver market has seen a strong rally, with current prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [2][6]. - As of July 23, silver's year-to-date increase stands at over 36%, surpassing gold's increase of 30% [2][3]. - The price of silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a peak of 9,526 RMB per kilogram, also a 14-year high [6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investment in silver bars and related products has surged, with sales increasing by over 40% year-on-year [9][13]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,158.37 tons, with significant daily increases in holdings [8]. - Institutional investors are actively participating in the silver market through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, leading to a notable rise in silver ETF holdings since June [7][8]. Group 3: Industrial Demand and Geopolitical Factors - The increase in silver prices is attributed to its industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, alongside rising geopolitical risks [7][14]. - The global demand for silver in photovoltaic applications is expected to surge, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [7][14]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a supply-demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, driven by industrial demand [14]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup predicts silver prices could reach $40 within three months and $43 within six to twelve months, driven by strong fundamentals [14]. - Bank of America anticipates silver prices to reach $40 per ounce by the end of this year or early 2026, citing both investment and industrial demand as key drivers [14]. - Macquarie Group remains optimistic about silver prices but notes limited upside potential in the near term, estimating an average price of $36 per ounce in Q3 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of silver and platinum are rising significantly as alternatives to gold, with silver's year-to-date increase reaching 32.06% as of July 19, outperforming gold's 27.65% increase [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 19, 2023, the year-to-date increase in London silver prices is 32.06%, while palladium and platinum have risen over 45% and 60% respectively [1]. - The international silver price surged to over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1]. - Domestic silver prices are expected to challenge the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark in the third quarter [5]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to silver, with reports of significant purchases of physical silver bars and coins [2][6]. - A notable increase in sales of silver products has been observed, with some banks and jewelry stores launching new silver offerings [6]. - A specific silver-themed fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 20.53%, indicating strong interest in silver investments [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to the ongoing bull market in gold and the correction of the gold-silver ratio [4][5]. - The demand for silver investment products has surged, with a reported increase in sales of over 40% year-on-year for silver bars and coins [6]. - The market is witnessing a shift in consumer preference from gold to silver, as investors seek better returns [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices has led to increased consumer interest in silver products, both for personal use and investment purposes, with significant sales growth reported in silver jewelry and investment products [1][10][13]. Silver Price Surge - As of July 14, the London silver spot price reached a record high of $39.13 per ounce, translating to approximately 8.748 yuan per gram, with Shanghai silver futures hitting 9.2 yuan per gram [1]. - The silver price has shown a high volatility, with a notable increase in global silver ETF holdings and speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures at historical peak levels [13][14]. Consumer Behavior - The demand for silver jewelry has surged, with some stores reporting sales doubling compared to the previous year, driven by both online traffic conversion and repeat purchases from existing customers [5][6]. - Younger consumers are particularly attracted to silver jewelry, with several online products selling over 20,000 units [8]. Investment Products - Banks are actively promoting silver investment products through mobile apps, with notable sales of items like the "Panda Silver Coin" and "Wealth Silver Ingot" [13]. - Investment in silver bars and coins has seen a significant increase, with sales up over 40% year-on-year [13]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while silver prices are currently strong, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors and the concentration of silver consumption in specific industries like photovoltaics and automotive [14][16]. - The investment value of silver is highlighted, particularly its relative opportunity compared to gold, although caution is advised regarding potential price corrections [18].