盈利压力缓解

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潞安环能(601699)更新点评:产销逐步恢复 预计全年盈利端同比压力有所缓解
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-22 10:31
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in production and sales starting from Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in year-on-year performance for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, total operating revenue was 6.968 billion yuan, a decline of 19.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.93, 1.06, and 1.18 yuan respectively, with a target price of 13.51 yuan based on a comparable company PE of 14.49x for 2025 [2]. Production and Sales - In 2024, the company's raw coal production was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, and merchandise coal sales were 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, raw coal production was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 2.49% year-on-year, and merchandise coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.51% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in sales [3]. Cost and Pricing - In 2024, the average selling price of coal was 645.6 yuan per ton, down 11.24% year-on-year, while the cost was 391 yuan per ton, up 12% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 255 yuan per ton, down 32.9% year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2025, the average selling price of coal was 543 yuan per ton, down 21.26% year-on-year, and the cost was 340 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 140 yuan per ton, down 55% year-on-year [3]. Resource and Capacity - The company has secured exploration rights for the Shama block in 2024, adding over 800 million tons of coal resources, which supports future development [3]. - The company operates 18 production mines with an advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons per year, with an average single mine scale of 3 million tons per year, indicating a leading level of intensive production [3][4]. - Planned and under-construction mines, such as Xinyu Coal Industry and Yuanfeng Mining, are expected to add a combined capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons per year [4].