送放心 le of the see and 2025 年 11 月 23 日 防疫 行业电 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 vantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施侍瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 煤炭行业周报（2025.11.15-2025.11.21） 疆煤产业链：据新疆天业公告，与新疆天池能源有限责任公司合作，依托天池能源准东 ● 煤矿设立合资公司,专注煤化工领域绿色发展新赛道。合资公司中,新疆天业拟持股比 例为 51%, 天池能源拟持股 49%, 天池能源 20 亿立方米/年煤制天然气项目已于 9 月底 开工建设。据新疆煤炭交易中心，11 月 21 日，吉木萨尔县 4900 大卡沫煤坑口价 130 元/吨，环比持平；巴里坤县 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, for the first time [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a coal production target of 300 million tons by 2030, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and acquisitions [2][4]. - The chemical products segment is projected to see steady growth, with total production expected to reach 8.702 million tons in 2024, aiming to exceed 9 million tons in the future [2]. - The company has a stable dividend history and is expected to continue providing high returns to shareholders [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited, established in September 1997, is primarily engaged in coal mining and sales, coal chemical product production and sales, logistics, equipment manufacturing, and power generation [13][19]. - The company is backed by Shandong Energy Group, which holds a 52.84% stake [14][15]. Business Analysis Coal Business: Rich Reserves and Capacity Expansion - The company has a total coal resource of over 460 billion tons, with significant reserves in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia [20][25]. - The coal production capacity is steadily increasing, with a current capacity of approximately 285 million tons per year, and plans to reach 300 million tons by 2026 [28][34]. Chemical Business: Capacity Expansion and Focus on High-End Products - The chemical segment is expanding, with a focus on high-end products, and is expected to produce 8.702 million tons in 2024 [2][19]. - The company aims to enhance its chemical product offerings and increase production capacity to over 20 million tons annually in the future [23][24]. Investment Value Analysis - The company has a strong international presence, reducing reliance on a single market, and is actively pursuing acquisitions to enhance its resource base [2][8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.02 billion, 15.23 billion, and 18.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.7, 9.7, and 8.1 [2][4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.27% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease by 28.37% in 2025, followed by a significant recovery in subsequent years [4].

Summary of Lu'an Huanneng Q3 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lu'an Huanneng - **Industry**: Coal Industry Key Points Q3 Performance Overview - **Raw Coal Production**: Remained consistent with previous forecasts and was stable compared to the same period last year [4][5] - **Commodity Coal Sales**: Decreased by approximately 500,000 tons in September compared to last year, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased production of certain types of coal [4][5] - **Average Selling Price**: Experienced a downward trend, with a decrease of over 140 RMB per ton compared to the previous year, leading to a revenue drop of around 6 billion RMB [4][5] - **Profit Decline**: Operating profit for January to September was approximately 1.5 billion RMB, down 44% from 2.8 billion RMB last year. Excluding non-operating expenses, the decline in operating profit exceeded 50% [5][6] Factors Affecting Production and Sales - **Weather Impact**: Increased rainfall during Q3 led to cautious production and more maintenance schedules [8][9] - **Regulatory Environment**: Ongoing strict safety regulations in Shanxi province affected production levels [8][9] - **Geological Conditions**: Some individual mines faced geological challenges, but overall resource availability was not a significant issue [10][11] Inventory and Sales Strategy - **Current Inventory**: Approximately 400,000 tons of coal in stock, considered a normal level [20][22] - **Sales Strategy**: Increased focus on producing and selling spray coal, which accounted for 44% of sales in Q3, up from around 40% previously [24][30] Pricing Trends - **Price Fluctuations**: The average selling price for spray coal increased by about 30-40 RMB per ton compared to Q2, with current market prices around 1,050 RMB per ton [32][41] - **Future Price Expectations**: Anticipation of further price increases as the market enters the winter storage phase [48][49] Cost Management - **Cost Increase**: Noted an increase in costs due to higher salary payments and operational expenses, although overall costs remained lower than last year [50][51] - **Cost Control Measures**: The company is actively managing costs but has not set specific reduction targets for the year [60][61] Taxation and Financial Outlook - **Tax Rate**: The company continues to apply a 15% tax rate for high-tech enterprises, with no expected changes in the near term [64][66] - **Profitability and Dividends**: Management believes that dividend levels can be maintained despite fluctuations in profit margins [99][100] Future Developments - **Resource Acquisition**: The company is actively seeking new resource opportunities and has plans to participate in upcoming auctions [92][93] - **Mining Rights Progress**: Anticipation of obtaining mining rights by the end of the year, which could accelerate project timelines [88][89] Conclusion - The company is facing challenges in production and profitability due to external factors such as weather and regulatory pressures. However, there are positive indicators for Q4, including potential price increases and a focus on maintaining a high proportion of spray coal in sales. The management remains optimistic about future resource acquisitions and overall market conditions.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The industry fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, with coal prices rebounding month-on-month. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, leading to gradual performance improvement [7][8] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, with revenue at 7.031 billion yuan, down 21.83%, and net profit at 206 million yuan, down 63.96% [4][7] - The company is a leading producer of injection coal in China and has successfully acquired coal exploration rights, which is expected to expand its mining scale in the long term [8] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 29.487 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.032 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year [6][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 35.5% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 6.9% [6][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.68 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.8 [6][11] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s coal sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 23.0% [7] - The average selling price of coal was 526.8 yuan per ton, down 15.6% year-on-year, but showed a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [7] - The company’s coal production and sales volumes have decreased, reflecting the impact of safety regulations and production constraints [8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Lu'an Environmental Energy Company Overview - The company is engaged in coal production and is currently focusing on two new mining projects with a total capacity of 8 million tons, expected to significantly boost production in five years [2][3][20]. Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales - The company's production and sales volume is expected to maintain current levels in the short term, with no new capacity added [2][3]. - In Q3, the sales volume of commodity coal decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter due to heavy rainfall and strict local safety inspections in the Changzhi area [3]. - From January to September, the overall production and sales volume remained stable compared to last year, with a slight increase of several thousand tons [3]. Cost and Profitability - Q3 unit production costs increased by 20% to 359 RMB, primarily due to concentrated wage payments [2][4]. - Management expenses also rose due to salary factors, but overall costs are expected to remain below last year's levels [4][6]. - The company reported a quarterly profit of approximately 820 million RMB, which is significantly lower than last year's level of around 1 billion RMB, indicating high sensitivity to cost fluctuations [5]. Market Dynamics - Coal prices in Q3 rose by approximately 30-40 RMB (excluding tax), with the current price of Pengchunmei at about 1,050 RMB, up around 200 RMB from the lowest point [2][10]. - The company anticipates continued upward pressure on prices during the winter storage period, although the exact potential for price increases is uncertain [10]. Regulatory Environment - Safety inspections in the Shanxi region have been strict, but production targets must still be met to ensure energy supply [7][13]. - There are currently no indications of stricter capacity reduction measures, which could impact the company's production capabilities [7]. Product Mix and Strategy - The company has increased the proportion of its sprayed coal sales due to adjustments in product structure to meet market demand [2][8]. - The production structure for sprayed coal is expected to continue in 2026, with potential further increases due to upgrades in washing plants [9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio in the coming years, ensuring stability and continuity in dividends [14]. - The company has two technical upgrade projects totaling 1.5 million tons of capacity, but progress has been hindered by policy issues and shareholder disputes [12]. Capital Expenditure and Financing - Capital expenditures are primarily for routine fixed asset updates and technical upgrades, estimated to be within 1 billion RMB [19]. - The company has issued 4 billion RMB in convertible bonds, but the conversion price has not yet been reached [15]. Industry Trends - The coal market is expected to experience a fluctuating upward trend, with current prices considered to be at a low or mid-low level [16]. - Downstream procurement activity is high, with early winter storage replenishment observed [17]. Additional Important Information - The company’s pricing mechanism is primarily market-based, with approximately 20% of supply coal priced by the National Development and Reform Commission [11]. - The company’s focus on improving the profitability of its coking coal business is ongoing, with efforts to reduce losses compared to the previous year [4][18].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its third-quarter report for 2025, detailing its financial performance and strategic decisions, including the purchase of coal production capacity indicators and plans for market-based coal resource bidding [9][51]. Financial Data - The company reported a coal production of 42.45 million tons and a sales volume of 37.58 million tons during the reporting period, with an average selling price of 519.76 RMB per ton [6]. - The total sales revenue from coal reached 1,953.159 million RMB, with a cost of sales amounting to 1,245.370 million RMB, resulting in a gross profit of 707.789 million RMB [6]. Shareholder Information - The company confirmed that there are no changes in the major shareholders or their shareholding status during the reporting period [5]. Related Transactions - The company’s subsidiary, Shanxi Luan Group Puxian Yitian Coal Industry Co., Ltd., plans to purchase coal production capacity indicators totaling 60,000 tons per year from three companies, with a total transaction cost of approximately 135.712 million RMB (including tax) [26][28]. - The transaction has been approved by the board and does not require shareholder approval as it does not constitute a major asset restructuring [26][30]. Strategic Decisions - The company aims to enhance its coal production capacity from 1.2 million tons per year to 1.8 million tons per year through the acquisition of these capacity indicators [29]. - The board has authorized the general manager to handle market-based bidding for coal resources, allowing for efficient resource acquisition and ensuring sustainable development [47][48]. Upcoming Events - The company will hold an investor meeting on November 6, 2025, to discuss the third-quarter results and address investor inquiries [51][53].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "overproduction check" policy in the coal industry has led to a significant supply-side contraction, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase coal prices in the long term [1][6]. Group 1: Supply-Side Policy Impact - The "overproduction check" initiated by the National Energy Administration on July 10, 2025, has resulted in a notable decrease in domestic raw coal production, with year-on-year declines of -3.8% and -3.2% in July and August respectively [1]. - The cumulative supply-demand surplus has decreased sharply from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton by September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Performance - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2025 was reported at 672 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [2]. - The long-term contract price for thermal coal showed a slight decline of -0.7% in Q3, but this is not expected to have a significant negative impact due to the recovery of contract fulfillment rates [2]. - The price of coking coal saw a substantial increase, with the average price for main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 CNY/ton, up 18.8% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 3: Production and Cost Management - The overall production of listed coal companies remains within approved capacity limits, with minor overproduction expected to have limited impact on performance [3]. - Cost control has become a key strategy for coal companies in response to declining prices, with significant reductions in labor, material, and safety production costs observed in Q2 2025 [4]. - As coal prices rebound in Q3, it is anticipated that companies will maintain their cost levels rather than pursue further reductions [4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand and Future Outlook - Despite September typically being a low-demand season for coal, the supply-side contraction is expected to keep prices stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% in September [6]. - The winter season is projected to see stronger demand for heating coal, which, combined with ongoing supply-side policies, may lead to a tighter coal supply and sustained high prices [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-scale thermal coal producers such as China Shenhua (601088), China Coal Energy (601898), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) [7]. - High-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001) are also recommended for potential investment [7]. - Quality coking coal companies such as Huaibei Mining (600985) and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal (601666) are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook compared to comparable companies in the coal industry [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight increase in raw coal production in September 2025, with expectations of benefiting from rising coal prices in the fourth quarter, leading to both volume and price growth [1]. - The report highlights a downward adjustment in coal price assumptions for 2025 from 703 RMB/ton to 544 RMB/ton, impacting revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [6]. - Despite the challenges, the coal industry is expected to maintain a high level of profitability due to historical underinvestment and tight supply conditions [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 31.194 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.650 billion RMB for 2025, with an expected growth of 8.2% in 2026 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.89 RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.01 RMB by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 36.0% in 2025 to 38.5% in 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of October 16, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 15.93 RMB, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 and a dividend yield of 2.57% [3]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 47.653 billion RMB [3]. Operational Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a raw coal production of 42.55 million tons, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [6]. - The company reported a coal sales volume of 37.65 million tons, down 1.10% year-on-year, with a notable decline in Q3 sales [6].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been declining, with July's PPI showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The stability of coal prices is closely linked to PPI, and the lowest coal prices in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with strict capacity controls and increasing operational difficulties leading to a tighter supply. The report suggests that coal will remain a key energy source in the short term, despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand [5][6] - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operating performance, and high or potentially increasing dividend ratios [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index increased by 0.31% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.81%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 9.32%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has risen by 13.35% [11][12] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of September 5, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 679 CNY/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week. The average daily production from 462 sample mines was 5.379 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [3][21] 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 674 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [23] 2.3 Spot Prices - The report details various spot prices for thermal coal across different regions, indicating slight fluctuations in prices [27][28] 2.4 Supply and Demand - The report notes a slight decrease in daily consumption by major power plants, with a total inventory of 13.388 million tons, reflecting a minor decline [37][48] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - The report highlights the price changes for coking coal, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port dropping to 1540 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.3% week-on-week [62][63] 3.2 Spot Prices - Various spot prices for coking coal are provided, showing both increases and decreases across different regions [66][68]

Core Insights - The China Steel Association reported a continued decline in procurement costs for coking coal and a mixed trend for iron ore in July 2025, with most categories showing significant year-on-year decreases in costs [1] Group 1: Coking Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of coking coal in July was 1100.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.00 CNY/ton or 2.83% month-on-month [2] - From January to July, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1250.49 CNY/ton, down 634.14 CNY/ton or 33.65% year-on-year [2] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1015.95 CNY/ton, which is 234.54 CNY/ton or 18.76% lower than the average [4] Group 2: Spraying Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of spraying coal in July was 841.62 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7.59 CNY/ton or 0.89% month-on-month [6] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 938.94 CNY/ton, down 198.76 CNY/ton or 17.47% year-on-year [6] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 727.16 CNY/ton, which is 211.78 CNY/ton or 22.56% lower than the average [8] Group 3: Metallurgical Coke - The weighted average procurement cost of metallurgical coke in July was 1303.66 CNY/ton, a decrease of 51.49 CNY/ton or 3.80% month-on-month [11] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 1482.27 CNY/ton, down 646.01 CNY/ton or 30.35% year-on-year [11] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1279.56 CNY/ton, which is 202.71 CNY/ton or 13.68% lower than the average [13] Group 4: Domestic Iron Concentrate - The weighted average procurement cost of domestic iron concentrate in July was 745.01 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.73 CNY/ton or 0.23% month-on-month [14] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 769.34 CNY/ton, down 119.02 CNY/ton or 13.40% year-on-year [14] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 630.96 CNY/ton, which is 131.37 CNY/ton or 17.23% lower than the average [16] Group 5: Imported Powder Ore - The weighted average procurement cost of imported powder ore in July was 725.51 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.54 CNY/ton or 0.21% month-on-month [19] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 754.60 CNY/ton, down 124.77 CNY/ton or 14.19% year-on-year [19] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 713.04 CNY/ton, which is 59.06 CNY/ton or 7.65% lower than the average [21] Group 6: Scrap Steel - The weighted average procurement cost of scrap steel in July was 2146.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.20 CNY/ton or 0.86% month-on-month [25] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 2180.06 CNY/ton, down 358.06 CNY/ton or 14.11% year-on-year [25] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1948.06 CNY/ton, which is 232.00 CNY/ton or 10.64% lower than the average [27] Group 7: Silicon Manganese Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of silicon manganese alloy in July was 5143.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 60.61 CNY/ton or 1.19% month-on-month [30] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 5389.77 CNY/ton, down 793.53 CNY/ton or 12.83% year-on-year [30] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 5104.90 CNY/ton, which is 284.87 CNY/ton or 5.29% lower than the average [32] Group 8: Manganese Iron Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of manganese iron alloy in July was 5973.38 CNY/ton, a decrease of 46.72 CNY/ton or 0.78% month-on-month [35] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 6274.58 CNY/ton, down 341.48 CNY/ton or 5.16% year-on-year [35] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 4848.24 CNY/ton, which is 1426.34 CNY/ton or 22.73% lower than the average [37]