行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 623 元/吨， 周环比+0.5%，内蒙古、山西产地价持平、陕西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 566.1 万吨，环比+6.7 万吨。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存大涨，秦港库存微涨，截至 6 月 30 日，动力煤库存指数为 194.3（-2.0），同比已转负。非电方面，甲 醇、尿素开工率分别为 88.2%（-3.1pct）和 84.3%（-1.5pct），仍处于 历史同期偏高水平。 截至 7 月 4 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1230 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 7 月 4 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日 均产量 73.9 万吨（+0.1 万吨），年同比-3.5%，532 家精煤库存 409.6 万吨（-53.5 万吨），年同比+44.4%；甘其毛都蒙煤通关量 7.7 万吨（-1.9 万吨），年同比-49.0%；日均铁水产量 240.8 万吨（-1.6 万吨），年同 比+0.6%。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小涨，大型焦化开工 ...

本报告导读： 2024 年产销同比下滑幅度收窄，2025Q1 开始逐步恢复。成本增加叠加煤价下跌，成为 2025Q1影响利 润的核心因素，预计 2025年全年盈利端同比压力有所缓解。 成本增加叠加煤价下跌，2025Q1 影响利润的核心因素，预计2025Q2盈利端同比压力有所缓解。2024 年 吨煤售价645.6 元/吨，同比-11.24%；吨煤成本391 元/吨，同比+12%；吨煤毛利255 元/吨，同 比-32.9%。2025Q1 吨煤售价543 元/吨，同比-21.26%/环比-10%；吨煤成本340 元/吨，同比-10%/环 比-21%；吨煤毛利140 元/吨，同比-55%/环比-18.5%。我们认为煤炭价格将迎来拐点，预计全年盈利端 同比压力有所缓解。 后备资源接续无忧。公司 2024 年已取得上马区块探矿权，增加煤炭资源量 8 亿多吨，叠加自有储备资 源，为未来发展提供了有利支撑。公司现有 18 座生产矿井，先进产能达到 4970 万吨/年，单井规模平 均 300 万吨/年，集约化生产水平行业领先，规模效应显著。 公司在建及规划的矿井（如忻峪煤业、元丰矿业、静安煤业、上马矿井等）合计产能约 850 ...

行 业 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 06 月 15 日 研 究 煤炭 煤价企稳去库持续，5 月进口煤同比-17.7% 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 609 元/吨， 周环比持平，内蒙古产地价持平、山西、陕西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 6 月 8 日晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 80.7%，周环比-0.8pct。本周电厂 日耗微涨，电厂库存小跌，动力煤库存指数小跌，秦港库存大跌。非 电方面，甲醇开工率微跌、尿素开工率小跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水 平，截至 6 月 12日，甲醇开工率为 88.0%，周环比-0.1pct，年同比+4.8pct； 截至 6 月 11 日，尿素开工率为 87.8%，周环比-1.6pct，年同比+4.7pct。 焦煤 截至 6 月 13 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1230 元/吨，周环比-40 元/ 吨，山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。铁水产量微跌，样本钢厂煤焦 库存微涨。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至 6 月 13 日，山 西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1230 元/吨，周环比持平，螺纹钢现货价格 307 ...

煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's coal production was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and coal sales were 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 645.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the sales cost increased to 390.76 yuan/ton, up 43.1 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for coal mining was 39.48%, down 12.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.968 billion yuan, down 19.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [1][3] Production and Sales - The company has 18 operational mines with an advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons/year and plans for additional capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons/year [3] - In Q1 2025, coal production slightly increased to 13.57 million tons, up 2.49% year-on-year, while coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.51% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 542.8 yuan/ton, down 146.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a sales cost of 340.2 yuan/ton, down 37.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading producer of injection coal in China, maintaining relatively stable production and sales amid a challenging coal market [4] - Current coal prices are at a low point, with potential for recovery as summer demand increases and inventory levels decrease [4] - The company has improved its financial structure and cash flow, providing support for potential acquisitions and capacity expansion [4] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.754 billion yuan for 2025, 3.251 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.592 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 11.9, 10.1, and 9.1 respectively [4]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （1）2024年，山西潞城喷吹煤全年均价1099元/吨，同比-20.1%，2025Q1该价格进一步降至921元/吨（同 比-16.4%、环比-13.6%）；（2）2025Q1，公司商品煤综合售价为543元/吨，同比-21.3%；（3） 2025Q1，公司商品煤单位销售成本340元/吨，同比-10.0%；（4）在煤价下行的背景下，公司2024年、 2025Q1单季度营业收入、归母净利润、扣非净利润都出现了一定幅度的下滑。 25Q1煤炭产量同比增长，产能释放可期 （1）2024年，公司原煤产量5728万吨，同比-5.2%，商品煤销量5216万吨，同比-5.2%；（2）2025Q1， 公司原煤产量1357万吨，同比+2.5%，商品煤销量118 ...

Summary of Lu'an Huaneng Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lu'an Huaneng - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points and Arguments Production and Market Conditions - Lu'an Huaneng expects a slight increase in coal production in 2025, maintaining a target of 50 million tons, consistent with the previous year [2][4] - The long-term coal price remains stable at 570 RMB/ton, while the market price for injection coal is approximately 950-1,000 RMB/ton [2][6] - The coking coal market is in a weak balance with stable inventory levels [2][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a loss in Q4 2024 primarily due to concentrated management expenses and decreased production intensity [2][6] - In Q1 2025, costs have significantly decreased, and the company has suspended the special development fund to alleviate financial pressure [2][6] - The dividend payout ratio has decreased from 60% to 50% due to capital expenditures, resource purchases, and declining performance [5][14] Development Projects - The new acquisitions have been fully paid for, and development is underway, including the utilization of existing mines and the construction of new mines expected to take over five years [2][5][7] - There is no clear timeline for the commissioning of the Xinyu Mine and Jing'an Coal Mine technical transformation projects, with no expected production increase in 2025 [8][2] Exploration and Regulatory Environment - The exploration rights for Yuanfeng Mining and Shangma Mining are progressing, with ongoing preliminary procedures [9][10] - The approval process for exploration rights has been completed, but the government’s attitude towards new mine approvals has changed, requiring a gradual completion of processes [10] Inventory and Sales Discrepancies - There is a discrepancy of approximately 1.7 million tons between production and sales, attributed to losses during the conversion of raw coal to marketable coal and inventory factors [11] - Current inventory levels are stable at 300,000 to 400,000 tons [11] Future Outlook - The company does not anticipate significant impairment losses in 2025, following no major impairments in 2024 [12] - Future dividend trends are expected to remain stable, responding to regulatory guidance and shareholder demands [15] Cost Management - The suspension of the coal mine transformation development fund has reduced raw coal costs by approximately 5 RMB/ton, leading to an annual cost reduction of about 250 million RMB [16] - Other special reserve fees may also be adjusted based on market conditions, but will not fall below minimum safety standards [17] Coking Business Performance - The coking business is expected to perform similarly to 2024, with ongoing cost control and process optimization to improve marginal effects [19][20] Tax Incentives and Asset Injection - The company plans to apply for tax incentives around June 2025, with expectations of approval by the end of the year [21] - There is potential for asset injection from the group into the listed company, encouraged by recent national policies [22][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to improve quality, reduce costs, and enhance efficiency, making it a preferred choice for investment [2][3] - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be CNY 35.85 billion, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 2.45 billion, down 69.08% year-on-year [1][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 6.968 billion, a decline of 19.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 657 million, down 48.95% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and profit are expected to decline in 2024, with a forecasted revenue of CNY 32.95 billion in 2025, and net profit of CNY 2.21 billion [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.41 per share, totaling CNY 1.226 billion, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 3.7% [4] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are CNY 2.21 billion, CNY 2.64 billion, and CNY 2.96 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.0X, 12.5X, and 11.2X [4] Production and Capacity - The company aims to maintain coal production at a scale of 50 million tons in 2025, with revenue exceeding CNY 30 billion [9] - The company has obtained exploration rights for the Shama block, increasing coal resources by over 800 million tons, supporting future development [9] - The company has 18 production mines with advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons per year, and ongoing projects are expected to add approximately 8.5 million tons per year [9] Market Conditions - The decline in both price and volume of coal has negatively impacted the company's performance in 2024 [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 is expected to be CNY 646 per ton, down 11.3% year-on-year, with a projected cost of CNY 391 per ton, up 12.4% year-on-year [9]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 光大研究一周热榜，精选"光溯" 小程序本周阅读量前十研报。 高弹性的喷吹煤龙头,静待煤价反弹--潞安环能 (601699.SH) 投资价值分析报告 蒋山,李晓渊 公司深度 2025-04-17 我们认为潞安环能作为喷吹煤龙头企业,具有业务纯粹、高弹 性的特点，尽管目前还处于煤价下行的偏左侧时间点,但考虑 到目前股价回调后公司PB已具备性价比，预计公司24-26年归母 净利润为26.2、21.4、30.3亿元，折合EPS分别为0.87、0.71、 1.01元，当前股价对应PE为13、16、11倍，首次覆盖给予"增持 "评级。 长按识别小程序码进入 光大证券小程序 阅读全文 洞悉光的观察 / 聆听光的声音 / 了解光的态度 No.1 听光 ...