2026年1月6日动力煤市场简报 一、市场综述：报价试探性上涨，需求响应冷淡 当前动力煤市场呈现"供应端挺价、需求端观望"的僵持特征。产地供应逐步恢复，港口库存持续去化， 叠加进口煤供应扰动，贸易商报价试探性上涨。然而，终端电厂库存高位运行，非电行业采购乏力，市 场实际成交清淡，价格上行缺乏持续性需求支撑。 二、供应端：产地逐步恢复，结构性矛盾显现 1. 主产区供应恢复，价格分化 来源：市场资讯 （来源：煤炭视界） 鄂尔多斯市场前期因完成年度任务停产的煤矿陆续复产，供应量恢复正常。部分性价比高的煤矿因需求 小幅释放，价格上调5–10元/吨，但贸易商拉运仍显谨慎。榆林市场生产基本稳定，价格整体持稳。下 游化工企业仅少量刚需采购，市场交易活跃度偏低。晋北市场受港口情绪传导，价格稳中小涨，但煤矿 出货速度普遍偏缓。 2. 港口库存持续去化，成本倒挂支撑挺价 截至今日，环渤海九港库存降至2837万吨，日环比下降12万吨。由于发运到港成本持续倒挂，贸易商低 价出货意愿低，尤其低硫优质煤种报价坚挺。今日北港贸易商报价：5500K低硫煤690–700元/吨， 5000K低硫煤600–600元/吨，4500K低硫煤520–5 ...

一方面，钢材价格波动率显著收窄，其核心原因在于供需两端均未出现能够支撑盘面展开趋势性行情的矛盾。供给端，行业缺乏自上而下的反内卷等强力 政策约束，产量调整更多依赖市场化盈亏调节。铁水产量在调整中正寻找新的平衡点，市场对阶段性亏损后的复产始终存有预期，特别是近期谷电利润的 出现，为电炉产线、尤其是建材的边际增量提供了现实可能，削弱供给收缩的想象空间。需求端，淡季特征依然明显，螺纹钢表观消费量持续回落，热卷 表需亦表现疲弱，整体现货市场维持刚需采购节奏。更关键的是，市场博弈的焦点已从对短期强刺激政策的期待，转向对中长期政策定力与经济目标的解 读，这进一步动摇了此前基于强预期的交易逻辑。供需两侧的故事性均在衰减，这种供需弱平衡状态，削弱了价格波动的驱动。 近期黑色系呈现弱势震荡格局，政策真空期内，多空双方博弈新的矛盾出现。整体市场波动率下降，观望情绪有所增加，在市场情绪由政策反内卷预期转 向淡季弱现实之际，盘面利润显现出先反弹后继续回落的大趋势，产业链内商品走势整体陷入上有顶、下有底的胶着状态，这种格局背后，是宏观预期摇 摆、产业现实矛盾不突出等多重因素交织的结果。 数据来源：Mysteel 同花顺 国海良时期货研 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety and environmental regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics [4][5][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with November coal production showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in Shanxi province, while overall national coal production for the first eleven months of 2025 increased by 1.4% [23][25][33]. - Industrial coal demand remains stable, but thermal power demand is experiencing temporary pressure, leading to fluctuations in coal prices [10][61]. Group 2 - The report notes that the seasonal adjustment of national railway freight rates is expected to enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility during adjustment periods [9]. - The report indicates that coal prices are likely to recover in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [10][41]. - The coal supply-demand balance shows that the top ten coal companies account for approximately 50% of total coal production, with significant production contributions from major companies like China Energy Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group [33][34]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that coal imports have decreased significantly, with a 12% year-on-year decline in imports for the first eleven months of 2025, particularly from Indonesia and Russia [50][54]. - The report also highlights that the coal production in Xinjiang has been growing, with November production reaching 5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% [41][42]. - The report discusses the resilience of the steel industry’s coal demand, with low inventory levels potentially supporting price rebounds [56][60].

煤炭行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 12 月） 工商评级三部 近年来中国煤炭价格走势 煤炭行业杠杆水平指标 煤炭行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 近年来中国煤炭产量情况 煤炭行业经营现金流及资本支出（单位：亿元） 2025 年以来，煤炭行业以"稳产增产"为核心基调，聚焦智 能化、自动化转型，同步强化安全生产与环境保护监管，推 动高端装备国产化及新能源融合发展，行业准入门槛持续提 升。 2025 年 1－10 月，全国煤炭产量小幅增长，煤炭进口量有所 下降；需求端呈现结构分化，电力行业对动力煤需求形成稳 定支撑，非电行业需求疲软拖累焦煤、喷吹煤消费；国内煤 炭价格整体呈先抑后扬、震荡修复的走势，但整体均价仍不 及 2024 年，行业整体盈利水平同比下滑。行业集中度稳定， 呈现区域布局集中、头部企业主导的竞争格局。 202 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 喷吹煤龙头，资源保障可持续发展 事件：公司公布 11 月主要运营数据，11 月/1-11 月原煤产量 432/5138 万吨，同比-15.1%/-1.7%。商品煤销量方面，11 月/1- 11 月销量 407/4550 万吨，同比-24.1%/-3.4%。 2025 年前三季度煤炭业务产销基本维持稳定，价格承压下行， 喷 吹 煤 占 比 提 升 ， 预计 全 年 单 位成 本 较去年 改善 。 公司 2025Q3/Q1-3 营业收入 70.3/211.0 亿元，同比-21.8%/-20.8%； 归母净利 2.06/15.54 亿元，同比-64.0%/-44.5%。产销方面， 2025Q3/Q1-3 公司原煤产量 1382/4245 万吨，同比-6.63%/-0.05%； 商品煤销量 1233/3758 万吨，同比-8.8%/-1.29%，其中喷吹煤销 量 544/1627 万吨，同比-1.45%/+9.34%。价格方面，2025Q3/Q1- 3 综合售价分别为 527/520 元/吨，同比-15.6%/-21.5%，Q3 较 Q2 环比+6.9 ...

行 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 14 日 业 研 究 煤炭 高库存下煤价继续承压，11 月进口煤同比-19.9% 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 745 元/吨， 周环比-40 元/吨，内蒙产地价大跌、山西产地价小跌、陕西产地价微 跌。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 557.1 万吨，环比+5.9 万吨，年同比-5.6%。本周电厂日耗微涨，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存大涨，截至 12 月 8 日，动力煤库存指数为 212（+10.7）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 89.8%（+0.7pct）和 81.9% （+0.02pct），仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 12 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1630 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 12 日，523 家样本矿山精 煤日均产量 75 万吨（-0.4 万吨），年同比-6.6%，532 家精煤库存 255 万吨（+8.3 万吨），年同比-24.3%；日均铁水产量 229.1 万吨（- ...

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures continue to show weakness, with the main contract dropping to 1079.5 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.48% [1] Market Summary - As of December 9, a survey of 20 coal mines in major production areas revealed that 17 maintained stable prices, 1 increased prices, 2 decreased prices, and 2 were suspended [2] - In the Yuzhou market, the price of blowing coal fell by 60 yuan/ton, with specific prices for different grades of coal reported [2] - The latest data from the Australian Gladstone Port Company indicates that coal exports in November 2025 were 5.8985 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guohai Liangshi Futures suggests that upcoming political and economic meetings in mid-December, along with the gradual onset of winter replenishment demand, may provide a turning point for coking coal prices. It is advised to avoid aggressive bottom-fishing strategies until signs of inventory turning points or favorable macroeconomic factors emerge [4] - Jinxin Futures anticipates a short-term pressure and limited downside for prices, with the current contract price below the mainstream spot warehouse receipt cost of 1100 yuan/ton. However, pre-Spring Festival replenishment demand may support prices from significant declines [5]

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 06 日 需求不佳库存累积，煤价延续弱势 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 785 元/吨， 周环比-31 元/吨，内蒙、山西、陕西产地价小跌。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 551.2 万吨，环比+1.2 万吨，年 同比-7.5%。本周电厂日耗微涨，电厂库存小涨，秦港库存大涨，截至 12 月 1 日，动力煤库存指数为 201.4（+9.9）。非电方面，甲醇、尿素 开工率分别为 89.1%（持平）和 81.8%（-1.9pct），仍处于历史同期偏 高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 5 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1630 元/吨，周环比-40 元/ 吨，山西产地价大跌，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 5 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 75.4 万吨（-1.0 万吨），年同比-7.0%，532 家精煤库存 247 万吨（+23.1 万吨），年同比-26.6%；日均铁水产量 234.6 万吨（-1.6 万吨），年同比+0.4%。截至 11 ...

来源 晋才晋商 潞安环能（601699）12月5日晚间发布公告称，因达到法定退休年龄，公司董事长王志清递交书面辞职 报告，申请辞去公司第八届董事会董事、董事长、董事会战略委员会委员及召集人职务。 辞去前述职务后，王志清将不在公司担任任何职务。截至公告披露日，王志清未持有公司股票。 王志清的退休标志着潞安环能一个时代的结束。这位出生于1965年8月的老潞安人，今年已满60岁，达 到了法定退休年龄。 王志清的职业生涯与潞安集团紧密相连。自1987年参加工作以来，他长期任职于潞安集团，从基层一步 步成长为集团领导。 他历任漳村矿矿长、常村矿矿长、潞安集团副总经理等职，2021年8月起担任潞安化工集团领导职务。 王志清的职业生涯经历了潞安集团多次重大变革。2019年3月，潞安环能曾经历一次高管层大变动，当 时王志清与李晋平等多人同日辞职。 2020年7月，随着山西新一轮省属重点国企战略重组加速推进，山西省确定以潞安集团主要资产为主体 框架组建潞安化工集团，王志清出任新成立的潞安化工集团党委书记、董事长，后兼任潞安环能董事 长。 在王志清的领导下，潞安环能始终坚持"以煤为基、多元发展"的战略方针，公司主营业务涵盖煤炭开 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lu'an Chemical Group is transforming from a traditional energy company to a modern energy and chemical enterprise, focusing on brand development and technological innovation to enhance its market competitiveness and international presence [1][20]. Group 1: Brand Development and Market Positioning - Lu'an Chemical Group has successfully produced the world's first coal-based synthetic III+ base oil and established the first 5G+ pilot demonstration coal mine in China [1]. - The company emphasizes brand strength as a foundation for high-quality development, implementing a brand strategy that focuses on value creation and market expansion [1][8]. - The "Lu'an Blasting Coal" has become synonymous with quality and efficiency in the steel industry, leading to the establishment of national standards for blast furnace coal [3][6]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Product Quality - The core competitiveness of Lu'an Blasting Coal lies in its stable quality, high calorific value, low sulfur content, and good grindability, supported by a comprehensive quality management system [5][6]. - The company has received multiple awards for its products, including recognition as a "National Quality Trusted Product," and has expanded its market reach internationally [6][12]. - Lu'an Chemical Group has developed advanced technologies, such as the "Jinhua Furnace," which achieved two global firsts in industrial applications [7][20]. Group 3: Contribution to Agriculture and Rural Development - During the spring farming season, Lu'an Chemical Group's fertilizer production has significantly increased, with a 40-day shipment volume exceeding 45,000 tons, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [12][13]. - The "Tianji" fertilizer brand has also seen a notable increase in sales, contributing to local agricultural development and rural revitalization efforts [13][14]. Group 4: Commitment to Social Responsibility - Lu'an Chemical Group has been recognized for its social responsibility initiatives, receiving awards for its contributions to the coal industry and community development [25][26]. - The company actively engages in local community support, enhancing agricultural productivity and farmer incomes through innovative practices [14][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - Looking ahead, Lu'an Chemical Group aims to strengthen its innovation capabilities and enhance brand value through technological advancements and market responsiveness [20][27]. - The company is committed to aligning with national goals for building world-class enterprises, focusing on high-quality development and sustainable practices [27][28].