行 业 及 产 业 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 重要信息回顾 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 煤炭/ - ⚫ 疆煤产业链：8 月 22 日，准东开发区召开 160 万吨煤制烯烃重点项目第 12 次调度会， 聚焦山能化工、东明塑胶（东方希望）两家企业共 160 万吨煤制烯烃项目建设进度，开 展专题调度部署，要求加压奋进推动项目按节点、确保项目早投产。据新疆煤炭交易中 心，8 月 22 日，吉木萨尔县 4900 大卡沫煤坑口价 130 元/吨，环比持平；巴里坤县 5200 大卡沫煤坑口价 197 元/吨，环比持平。 ⚫ 本周日耗小幅下行、电厂库存小幅上升：据同花顺金融数据，截至 8 月 21 日，六 ...

Summary of Lu'an Environmental Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lu'an Environmental Energy - **Year**: 2025 Key Points Production and Capacity - Total production for 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to 2024, with the Rain Fog Mine exceeding its approved capacity while other main mines operate at their approved levels [2][3] - The Sima Mine's production is limited due to natural reserve issues but is expected to improve compared to last year, with potential recovery in the second half of the year [2][5] Pricing and Sales Structure - The pricing model for thermal coal remains at 570 RMB per ton, with short-term sales at market prices observed but current spot prices have rebounded above the long-term contract price [2][6] - The price for injection coal is currently between 1,050 and 1,070 RMB per ton (including tax) [2][7] - Injection coal prices are adjusted monthly, with potential for more frequent adjustments during market volatility [2][8] - In the first half of 2025, total production was 28.65 million tons, with a slight decrease in thermal coal's share and an increase in injection coal demand, expected to exceed 40% of total sales for the year [2][9][11] Cost Management - Anticipated cost reductions in Q2, with overall cost management expected to further compress throughout the year [2][12] - The suspension of the mining transition development fund is projected to reduce coal costs by approximately 5 RMB per ton, alongside other cost-saving measures [2][13][14] Taxation and Financials - The high-tech enterprise tax benefits are set to expire in December 2024, with an application for extension submitted; if approved, new tax rates will apply starting in 2025 [2][4][16] - The increase in income tax rate for 2024 is attributed to timing issues related to wage accruals and litigation cases [2][17][18] - No mid-term dividend plans for this year, but a stable return policy is expected, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 50% [2][19] Future Plans and Developments - The Xiaodian Mine has no closure plans, with intentions to extract newly acquired resources from underground [2][20] - The carbon transition project is expected to positively influence the approval process for exploration rights, with no significant issues anticipated for the synchronization of mining rights and construction [2][15]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse deflation, with July's PPI down 3.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend. The strong correlation between PPI and coal prices suggests that coal prices need to stabilize. The lowest point for coal prices in 2024 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced. Given the unclear demand-side changes, coal prices are expected to fluctuate upward amidst volatility, with a focus on high-quality core stocks as primary targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index rose by 3.65% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.41 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 7.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 4.32%, indicating a significant underperformance of the coal index compared to the broader market [15][22]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 682 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week, but down 19.4% year-on-year. The average daily output from 462 sample mines was 5.624 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150,000 tons [3][27][33]. 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The annual contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 668 CNY/ton as of August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [28]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic prices for thermal coal showed mixed trends, with significant increases in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, while Shanxi saw a slight rise. The price for Inner Mongolia's high-quality coal reached 547.8 CNY/ton, up 5.6% week-on-week [33][40]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions was 80.1%, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The daily consumption of the six major power plants increased to 93.3 million tons, up 6.5% week-on-week [41][46]. 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - As of August 8, 2025, the price for coking coal at the Jing Tang Port was 1610 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week. The average daily output from 523 sample mines was 755,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.79% from the previous week [80][81]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price for coking coal in Henan rose significantly by 5.8% week-on-week to 1460 CNY/ton, while prices in Anhui also saw a notable increase [82][84].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. is rated AAA with a stable outlook, reflecting its advantages in coal types, low financial leverage, and strong external support from shareholders [3][4]. Company Overview - Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. was established on July 19, 2001, and is primarily engaged in coal mining and coal chemical business. The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in September 2006 [7]. - As of March 2025, the company had total assets of 948.06 billion yuan and total liabilities of 455.83 billion yuan, indicating a low debt level [4][25]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 358.50 billion yuan, with a net profit of 28.67 billion yuan [4][21]. - The company's operating income from coal mining accounted for over 90% of total revenue, but both revenue and gross profit margin have been declining since 2022 due to falling coal prices [21][22]. - The company maintains a strong profitability despite the market downturn, with a total profit of 199.11 billion yuan in recent years [21][23]. Operational Strength - The company has a diverse range of coal types, primarily producing spray coal, which is widely used in the steel industry. It holds approximately 15% of the national market share for spray coal [10][11]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major steel and power companies, ensuring stable sales channels [14]. Industry Context - The coal industry is expected to face challenges in demand growth due to economic transitions and stricter environmental policies, but it remains a crucial part of China's energy security [10]. - The overall coal supply is expected to remain loose, with prices continuing to show weakness in the short term, impacting the profitability of coal enterprises [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus its future investments on coal mining, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [20]. - The acquisition of exploration rights in Shanxi province is expected to enhance the company's coal resource base [11][20].

Group 1 - As of July 30, 2025, Lu'an Environmental Energy's stock price closed at 14.42 yuan, down 1.9% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 1.1981 million shares, with a total transaction amount of 1.762 billion yuan [1] - The stock reached a high of 15.14 yuan and a low of 14.20 yuan, resulting in a price fluctuation of 6.39% [1] Group 2 - Lu'an Environmental Energy is primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, and is one of the key coal enterprises in Shanxi Province [1] - The company's industry is classified as coal mining and washing, with main products including mixed coal, washed coking coal, and blown coal [1] - On July 30, the net outflow of main funds for Lu'an Environmental Energy was 121 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.01% and a total market capitalization of 43.136 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - In May, the procurement costs of most primary raw materials for enterprises decreased month-on-month, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, which saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Procurement Cost Changes - Coking coal procurement cost decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1227.16 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.26% [2] - Injection coal procurement cost decreased by 2.94% month-on-month, with an average cost of 903.47 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [3] - Metallurgical coke procurement cost increased by 0.96% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1474.85 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year decrease of 28.53% [4] - Domestic iron concentrate procurement cost decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, with an average cost of 762.98 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [5] - Imported powder ore procurement cost decreased by 1.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 750.01 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66% [6] - Scrap steel procurement cost decreased by 0.60% month-on-month, with an average cost of 2158.02 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.46% [8] - Silicon manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 5265.77 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [9] - Manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.17% month-on-month, with an average cost of 6236.93 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [10] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The lowest five enterprises for coking coal procurement had an average cost of 1057.82 CNY/ton, which is 19.09% lower than the average procurement cost [2] - The lowest five enterprises for injection coal procurement had an average cost of 739.41 CNY/ton, which is 24.49% lower than the average procurement cost [3] - The lowest five enterprises for metallurgical coke procurement had an average cost of 1339.75 CNY/ton, which is 13.35% lower than the average procurement cost [4] - The lowest five enterprises for domestic iron concentrate procurement had an average cost of 659.26 CNY/ton, which is 14.95% lower than the average procurement cost [5] - The lowest five enterprises for imported powder ore procurement had an average cost of 723.08 CNY/ton, which is 7.57% lower than the average procurement cost [6] - The lowest five enterprises for scrap steel procurement had an average cost of 1924.10 CNY/ton, which is 12.49% lower than the average procurement cost [8] - The lowest five enterprises for silicon manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 5248.31 CNY/ton, which is 5.13% lower than the average procurement cost [9] - The lowest five enterprises for manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 4872.49 CNY/ton, which is 25.59% lower than the average procurement cost [10]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [8] Core Views - The coal prices have shown a continuous upward trend due to increased daily consumption and reduced inventory, driven by seasonal demand and supply contraction expectations [5][6] - The current coal supply is characterized by limited elasticity, with strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5] - The overall health of coal companies' balance sheets and improved dividend ratios suggest a comparative advantage for coal stocks in the long term [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index surged by 7.98% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.29 percentage points [18] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 5.95%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 4.89% [18] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of July 25, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 653 CNY/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample mines was 5.662 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [44] 2.2 Annual Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 666 CNY/ton, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 4.9% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with the Inner Mongolia price at 493.2 CNY/ton, up 0.74% week-on-week [34] - International coal prices also increased, with European ARA coal at 100.3 USD/ton, up 9.62% week-on-week [39] 2.4 Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81.3%, with a slight increase week-on-week [42] - Daily consumption at six major power plants was 90.4 million tons, up 0.63% week-on-week [48] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port increased to 1680 CNY/ton, a rise of 16.67% week-on-week [79] - The average daily output of 523 sample mines was 77.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.9% week-on-week [79] 3.2 Spot Prices - The price of Shanxi coking coal rose to 1400 CNY/ton, up 21.74% week-on-week [80]

Investment Rating - The report suggests an increase in allocation to coal-related stocks due to the rebound in coal prices and the overall health of coal companies' balance sheets [5][6]. Core Views - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, leading to negative feedback on the supply side. The report notes a continued decrease in coal imports as of May, with global coal shipment volumes to China at 4.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7% [5]. - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security and policy changes, indicating that coal may still be in a golden era. The supply of coal is expected to remain rigid due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5]. - The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic conditions may temporarily affect coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of July 4, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 623 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% [3][30]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.661 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.2% [45]. - The inventory index for thermal coal is at 194.3, showing a year-on-year decline [3][49]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port remains at 1230 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.7% [4][83]. - The average daily production of coking coal from 523 sample mines is 739,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [82]. - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants is 716,500 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.57% [82]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, including companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [6]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment targets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in production and sales starting from Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in year-on-year performance for 2024 and 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, total operating revenue was 6.968 billion yuan, a decline of 19.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.93, 1.06, and 1.18 yuan respectively, with a target price of 13.51 yuan based on a comparable company PE of 14.49x for 2025 [2]. Production and Sales - In 2024, the company's raw coal production was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, and merchandise coal sales were 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, raw coal production was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 2.49% year-on-year, and merchandise coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.51% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in sales [3]. Cost and Pricing - In 2024, the average selling price of coal was 645.6 yuan per ton, down 11.24% year-on-year, while the cost was 391 yuan per ton, up 12% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 255 yuan per ton, down 32.9% year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2025, the average selling price of coal was 543 yuan per ton, down 21.26% year-on-year, and the cost was 340 yuan per ton, down 10% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 140 yuan per ton, down 55% year-on-year [3]. Resource and Capacity - The company has secured exploration rights for the Shama block in 2024, adding over 800 million tons of coal resources, which supports future development [3]. - The company operates 18 production mines with an advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons per year, with an average single mine scale of 3 million tons per year, indicating a leading level of intensive production [3][4]. - Planned and under-construction mines, such as Xinyu Coal Industry and Yuanfeng Mining, are expected to add a combined capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons per year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, indicating supply-side negative feedback. In May, coal imports continued to decrease, and domestic production saw a month-on-month decline. With daily consumption improving, destocking is expected to commence, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, with long-term core stocks showing high dividend yields and significant value [5][6] - The coal industry is currently in a golden era due to the energy transformation, with strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing safety and environmental regulations limiting overproduction. Supply is regionally differentiated, with production difficulties increasing in eastern regions and a concentration of domestic capacity in the west, raising supply costs. The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting demand, rigid supply and rising costs support coal price stability [5][6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 609 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in Shanxi and Shaanxi production prices. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 80.7%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week. Daily consumption at power plants has slightly increased, while coal inventories have decreased [3][4][5] - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 669 RMB/ton, down 6.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 31.0% year-on-year [24] - The report highlights that the operating rates of coal mines in the three provinces (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) have slightly decreased, with a total production of 62,296 million tons year-to-date, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [36] Coking Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week, with prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui remaining stable. The operating rate of large coking plants is 79.3%, down 1.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][68] - The report notes that the average available days of coking coal in domestic independent coking plants is 9.7 days, down 1.02% [68]