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蛋白数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 11:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost support from the combination of the US market and premiums is expected to limit the downside space of MO1. Attention should be paid to the results of the USDA September report. The domestic spot market has a serious cash-out phenomenon, and the spot basis is weak. In the short term, the market will oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to go long on dips [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) and the spot basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions (Dalian, Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, Fangcheng) and rapeseed meal (Dong) are presented, along with their price changes on September 10 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, including spot spreads (Guangdong) and futures spreads (main contract), are provided, as well as the price changes [7]. 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major oil mills' soybeans, major oil mills' soybean meal, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are presented, along with historical data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre to a historical high of 53.6 bushels/acre but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced to 290 million bushels, and the supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tight. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 65% this week. The domestic soybean arrivals in September are expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start de - stocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes [7][8]. - **Demand**: The high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports the demand for feed. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were cautious [8].