| 匹行。 | | --- | | 数据来源:海关总署、木联数据、Wind、厂发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 | | 免责声明 | | 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可缔的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 | | 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表厂发期货或其时属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内商仅供参考，报告中部信息或所表 | | 达贴意见并不构成所述品种买卖部出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货持定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 | | 广发期货所有，来经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | | 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | | 关注微信公众号 | 曹剑兰 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 期货和现货价格 | NATHANA ITE | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月18日 | 11月17日 | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]

原木期货日报 288.00 293.00 5.0 1.74% 中国 191.50 188.3 3.2 1.70% 万/立方米 山东 江苏 82.45 82.26 0.2 0.24% 需求: 間度) 日均出库量 11月7日 10月31日 涨跌幅 单位 地区 狱跌 中国 6.63 6.28 0.35 6% 万/立方米 3.79 3.19 0.60 山东 19% 江苏 2.28 2.43 -0.15 -6% 原木主要港口库存(万方) 原木日均出库量(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 -- 2023 · =2024 =2025 -2023 =2024 ·2022 =2025 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 220 870 2020 =2022 2021 2023 2024 =2025 200 850 180 830 160 81 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the supply of logs is increasing and the spot price is falling, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides certain support for the import cost, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures, the price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 742.0 yuan/cubic meter; log 2601 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.06%; log 2603 increased by 1.5 yuan to 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.19%; log 2605 decreased by 2.0 yuan to 805.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.25%. The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, with only the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increasing by 1 dollar to 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 0.87% [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.124 yuan on November 7, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The import theoretical cost increased by 6.48 yuan to 812.22 yuan, an increase of 1% [1] Supply: Monthly - From September 30th to October 31st, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 million cubic meters to 201.3 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships increased by 8 to 54, a growth rate of 17.39% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From October 24th to October 31st, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1.41%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 18,000 cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 822,600 cubic meters, a growth rate of 4.54% [1][2] Demand - From October 24th to October 31st, the average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 0.10 million cubic meters to 2.33 million cubic meters, an increase of 4% [2]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 | 粘预期仍处于累库周期:10月国内大豆预期开始去库,明年一季度的豆相供需缺口取决于中美政策变化、需求方面,生猪和禽类养殖辐 | | | --- | --- | | 11 | 斯顿朝维持高存栏。支撑河用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪供应。豆粕维价比较高。提货居于高位；本周豆 | | 结 | 柏下游成交谨慎。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位、豆粕库存上升，库存水平低于去年同期，但预期仍处于累库周期，饲料企业豆粕 | | 库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，出于美盘和贴水综合的进口成本支撑领期下,NO1下方空间预期有限。关注本周USDA9月报告结果。国内现货市场催提现 | | | 象严重,现货基差偏弱。短期盘面震荡调整,以逢低做多为主。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求推广可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及示释担放任何保证。本报告不构 | | | 电 | 成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者帮殊的 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/9/11 | 指标 | | 9月10日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ==== 19/20 | ----- 20/21 | | ===== 21/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 14 -26 | -11 | 1600 1200 | こここー・18/19 ----- 22/23 | == | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -86 | -11 | 400 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 | 07/26 08/26 ...