Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downward. The supply-side arrival volume continues to recover, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 785, 794, and 808 yuan/cubic meter respectively, down 0.51%, 0.63%, and 0.19% from the previous day. The prices of some specifications of radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port decreased, with the largest decline of 3.41% for large radiata pine in Rizhao Port. The prices of radiata pine 4m medium A and spruce 11.8m in the outer market remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 18, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was 7.113 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 810.99 yuan, up 0.91 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 17.39% from the previous month [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 2.04% and 1.46% respectively [1][2] Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in China and Shandong decreased by 1% and 3% respectively, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 7% [1][2] Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 3 ships from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 48% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. Although the spot price is weak and the supply is expected to increase, the current low futures price and the price inversion between the domestic and foreign markets provide some support for the futures price, limiting its downward space [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 13, the price of log2511 remained unchanged at 740.0; log2601 rose to 783.5, up 5.0 (0.64%); log2603 rose to 793.5, up 1.0 (0.13%); log2605 fell to 810.0, down 2.0 (-0.25%) [2] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 13 compared to November 12 [2] - Spread and basis: The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 5.0 to -43.5; the 11 - 03 spread decreased by 1.0 to -53.5; the 11 - contract basis remained unchanged at 10.0; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 5.0 to -33.5 [2] - Foreign quotes: On November 14, the CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged compared to November 7 [2] - Import cost: The RMB/USD exchange rate decreased to 7.102 on November 13, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 809.77 yuan [2] 3.2 Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0 (17.39%) [2] - Expected supply (November 10 - 16, 2025): The number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a week - on - week decrease of 25%; the total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 26% [3] 3.3 Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of November 7, the total inventory in Chinese ports increased by 5.0 (1.74%) to 288.0 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 3.2 (1.70%) to 191.5 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.2 (0.24%) to 82.45 million cubic meters [2][3] 3.4 Demand - Weekly demand: As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume in China increased by 0.35 (6%) to 6.63 million cubic meters; in Shandong, it increased by 0.60 (19%) to 3.79 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.15 (-6%) to 2.28 million cubic meters [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the supply of logs is increasing and the spot price is falling, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides certain support for the import cost, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures, the price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 742.0 yuan/cubic meter; log 2601 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.06%; log 2603 increased by 1.5 yuan to 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.19%; log 2605 decreased by 2.0 yuan to 805.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.25%. The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, with only the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increasing by 1 dollar to 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 0.87% [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.124 yuan on November 7, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The import theoretical cost increased by 6.48 yuan to 812.22 yuan, an increase of 1% [1] Supply: Monthly - From September 30th to October 31st, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 million cubic meters to 201.3 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships increased by 8 to 54, a growth rate of 17.39% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From October 24th to October 31st, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1.41%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 18,000 cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 822,600 cubic meters, a growth rate of 4.54% [1][2] Demand - From October 24th to October 31st, the average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 0.10 million cubic meters to 2.33 million cubic meters, an increase of 4% [2]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 | 粘预期仍处于累库周期:10月国内大豆预期开始去库,明年一季度的豆相供需缺口取决于中美政策变化、需求方面,生猪和禽类养殖辐 | | | --- | --- | | 11 | 斯顿朝维持高存栏。支撑河用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪供应。豆粕维价比较高。提货居于高位；本周豆 | | 结 | 柏下游成交谨慎。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位、豆粕库存上升，库存水平低于去年同期，但预期仍处于累库周期，饲料企业豆粕 | | 库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，出于美盘和贴水综合的进口成本支撑领期下,NO1下方空间预期有限。关注本周USDA9月报告结果。国内现货市场催提现 | | | 象严重,现货基差偏弱。短期盘面震荡调整,以逢低做多为主。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求推广可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及示释担放任何保证。本报告不构 | | | 电 | 成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者帮殊的 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/9/11 | 指标 | | 9月10日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ==== 19/20 | ----- 20/21 | | ===== 21/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 14 -26 | -11 | 1600 1200 | こここー・18/19 ----- 22/23 | == | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -86 | -11 | 400 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 | 07/26 08/26 ...