7月7日，老乡鸡向港交所更新招股书，披露2024年营收62.88亿元、净利润4.09亿元，2025年前四月营收利润双增的亮眼数据。 更值得关注的是，其独立加盟店收入占比首次突破51.1%，直营店数量净减少3家，而加盟店净增88家。这一系列数据背后，是老乡鸡从"直营为王"到"加 盟突围"的战略转向，更是中式快餐赛道资本化浪潮下的激烈博弈。 当头部品牌纷纷押注加盟模式，当区域龙头加速全国化布局，中式快餐的"千亿市场"究竟谁能率先突围？本文将从财务数据、赛道格局、资本路径三个维 度，拆解老乡鸡招股书背后的行业变局。 01、财务透视：加盟模式成增长引擎，但全国化仍存"偏科"隐忧 加盟店收入占比首超直营，华东市场依赖症待解，单店模型效率成关键。 1、直营转加盟"急刹车"，独立加盟商撑起半边天 根据招股书，2024年老乡鸡直营店转加盟数量达146家，创历史新高，但2025年前四月这一数字骤降至23家，仅占去年全年的15.8%。 | 且宮后 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期初 . | 991 | 1,007 | 973 | 914 | | 新店 | 111 | 12 ...

Industry Overview - The tavern industry has not yet recovered, with competition significantly higher than in 2019. The chain development process is slow. The "Tavern Development Report 2025" indicates that the national tavern market size is projected to reach 112 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but still below the 2019 level. It is expected to grow to 117.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - As of March 2025, the number of tavern enterprises in the country exceeds 38,000, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and a 139.6% increase compared to 2019, indicating intensified competition amid weak demand [1] - The chain rate of taverns remains low, with most brands having five or fewer stores, accounting for 57.9%, while brands with over 100 stores only account for 5.1% [1] Company Performance - Helen's direct sales have rapidly declined, and the transition to a franchise model is still ongoing. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 752 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.76%, and reported a net loss of 77.976 million yuan, reversing from a net profit of 180 million yuan last year. The adjusted net profit was 101 million yuan, down 65.5% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to the platform transformation leading to a drop in direct sales revenue. Since 2023, the company has significantly closed direct stores, with 511 stores shut down by March 19, 2025. The "Hi Beer Partner" franchise model has expanded to 424 stores, with a total of 499 signed agreements, while the number of licensed cooperative stores decreased from 92 to 42, with over 70% of the total 579 stores being franchise stores [2] - The company is in a transitional phase from direct sales to a franchise model, with its profit model still being refined. The rapid reduction of direct stores and the immature franchise system raise concerns about its cyclical resilience. The efficiency of store operations and product structure are still being adjusted, and the ability to enhance single-store repurchase rates and efficiency through multi-scenario combinations and mechanism optimization will be key to long-term performance [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company forecasts earnings per share for 2025-2027 to be 0.05, 0.06, and 0.09 yuan respectively, down from the previous forecast of 0.21 yuan for 2025, mainly due to the rapid closure of direct stores and the increase in franchise proportion, leading to a decline in overall single-store profit contribution [2] - Based on comparable companies, the reasonable valuation level for the company is set at a 29 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 1.51 HKD (with 1 HKD = 0.9138 RMB), and the rating has been adjusted to "neutral" [2]

Core Viewpoint - Helen's performance in 2024 is disappointing, with a significant revenue decline of nearly 40% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive year of revenue drop, and the company has shifted from profit to loss [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 752 million yuan in 2024, down 37.8% from 1.209 billion yuan in 2023, with a loss of approximately 78 million yuan compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 65.29% to 101 million yuan [2] Store Closure and Transformation Strategy - Since 2023, the company has closed over 500 direct-operated stores while launching a franchise model, opening over 400 "Hi Beer Partner" franchise stores [1][2] - As of March 19, 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased from 255 to 113, while franchise stores increased to 424 [2][3] Sales Performance - Franchise business revenue grew by 85.7% to 195 million yuan in 2024, but average daily sales per store declined significantly [3] - Average daily sales for direct-operated and franchise stores fell from 7,300 yuan in 2023 to 7,000 yuan in 2024, and for "Hi Beer Partner" stores, it dropped from 7,100 yuan to 5,000 yuan, a nearly 30% decline [3] Same-Store Sales Decline - Same-store sales decreased by 21.3% from 670 million yuan in 2023 to 528 million yuan in 2024, with average daily sales per store dropping from approximately 1.2 million yuan to 950,000 yuan [4] - The company attributes this decline to the complex and changing domestic economic market [4] Market Position and Consumer Trends - Helen's low-price strategy has not translated into improved same-store sales, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [7][8] - The company faces increasing competition from alternative social venues, which may affect its appeal as a low-cost social space [8] Operational Challenges - The shift to a franchise model has reduced operational costs but has not proven to be a sustainable solution for profitability [7] - The company is exploring various measures to enhance store performance, including optimizing operations and improving customer experience [4][6]