Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by factors such as South American soybean harvest expectations, import volume, demand, and policies, with prices expected to remain range - bound [1][3][4] - The peanut market is influenced by inventory, supply, demand, and weather, with prices expected to face challenges in the future [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract yesterday was 4104.00 yuan/ton, up 25.00 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 196, down 25 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market News - On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 2.7%, hitting a two - week low. The decline was due to improved weather in the US Midwest and disappointment over the progress of China - US trade negotiations. As of the close, soybean futures fell between 21 and 28.50 cents. The July contract fell 24.50 cents to 1031.75 cents per bushel; the August contract fell 24 cents to 1031.50 cents per bushel; the November contract fell 28.50 cents to 1020.75 cents per bushel [2] - On July 8, the prices of national standard first - grade 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Heilongjiang remained stable [2] Price Outlook - In the short term, the shortage of domestic soybeans supports prices, but the increase in imported soybeans and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long term, good weather in new - season soybean production areas, stable global production, and weak domestic demand make it difficult for soybean prices to rise significantly. Policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions in July and the rotation rhythm of Sinograin need attention [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance, with the purchase price of Sinograin providing some support, so the price is expected to remain range - bound [4] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8120.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 180.00, down 22.00 or 10.89% from the previous day [5] Market News - Current peanut prices in different regions are as follows: Henan Zhengyang Baisha general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty; Shandong Linyi Junan Haohua general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.10 yuan per catty; Liaoning Changtu 308 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty; Xingcheng Huayu 23 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.55 yuan per catty; Jilin 308 general - quality peanuts are priced at 4.50 - 4.60 yuan per catty [5] Price Outlook - In the short term, low old - crop inventories and high - quality peanut shortages support prices, but imported peanuts and new - crop peanuts are expected to create supply pressure in September. If terminal consumption does not improve in July, inventory pressure will become apparent. In the long term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the new - season peanut supply - demand pattern will remain loose, and the likely decline in planting costs will lower the support level [6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance [6]