油料日报 | 2026-01-09 豆一政策提振及备货支撑，花生需求偏弱格局难改 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4387.00元/吨，较前日变化-17.00元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+53，较前日变化+57，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆现货价格保持稳定，主要由于当前价位偏高抑制了市场成交活跃度。大豆期货 价格近日大幅上涨并突破关键阻力位，同时基层余粮持续消耗，国储大豆拍卖维持高成交率且溢价显著。现货方 面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约小幅回调。南方大豆产区现货价格持稳，市场成交平淡，下游采购谨慎，走货缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is currently characterized by tight supply and potential demand, with strong short - term upward price momentum due to factors such as traders' reluctance to sell, tight supply of high - protein soybeans, active state reserve auctions, and pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. However, high prices may suppress consumption, and price corrections should be watched out for after the pre - holiday stocking period [2] - The peanut market has an increase in supply, but due to farmers' reluctance to sell and middlemen's price - holding mentality, the overall market trading activity is low. The downstream oil mills' purchase prices are stable but with strict acceptance standards, and food processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm before the Spring Festival [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No. 1 2605 contract yesterday was 4404.00 yuan/ton, up 128.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +2.99% [1] - **Spot**: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 4, down 88 from the previous day, a change of 32.14%. Northeast soybean spot prices continued to strengthen yesterday, generally up 20 to 40 yuan/ton. Specific spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 8072.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +0.12% [3] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of - 0.22%. The spot basis was PK03 - 1072.00, down 10.00 from the previous day, a change of +0.94%. National average prices for various types of peanuts and oil mills' purchase prices are provided [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a firm price bottom supported by suppliers' reluctance to sell and policy measures, with potential upward momentum from pre - holiday stocking expectations, but current demand is weak [2] - The peanut market has strong price support due to the reluctance of the grassroots and some buyers to sell, but the demand side is weak overall, and the focus is on the pre - holiday stocking rhythm of downstream users [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2605 contract was 4276.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A05 + 84, down 13 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices generally rose due to policy benefits and limited remaining grain at the grassroots level. Southern soybean spot prices were stable with light trading [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8062.00 yuan/ton, up 124.00 yuan/ton or 1.56% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8036.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1062.00, down 124.00 or 13.22% from the previous day. The overall demand was weak, and the price performance of oil peanuts varied [3][5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the short - term soybean price is expected to remain stable, with local narrow - range adjustments due to quality and regional supply - demand differences. The market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and policy acquisitions at the bottom, but high prices restrict downstream acceptance. Key factors to track include grass - roots grain sales progress, state - reserve acquisition rhythm, and pre - holiday terminal restocking [2] - For peanuts, in the short term, the price has limited room to fall due to cost support, but lacks the power to rise continuously because of insufficient downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Future trends depend on the actual purchasing sentiment and rhythm changes of downstream enterprises [5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4156.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 yuan/ton (+0.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 84, down 28 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean clean - grain prices rose, and high - protein tower - grain prices were stable. The impact of state - reserve auctions and acquisitions was neutral, and the market shipment rhythm slowed down. Southern soybeans had average quality and sufficient supply, with weak downstream demand and stable prices. In the sales areas, processing enterprises were cautious in purchasing [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2603 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8064.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 942.00, up 28.00 (-2.89%) month - on - month. The national average price of common peanuts was basically stable, and each region had different price ranges. The contract procurement average price of oil - mill peanuts was 7288 yuan/ton, with different quotes from each oil mill [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybeans market shows a strong upward trend in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. If the state - owned reserve increases the auction volume and imported soybeans impact the market, the upward momentum of domestic soybeans may be limited [3] - The peanut market has limited support from high - quality resources. Although the prices of high - quality peanuts in the Northeast region are supported, the overall demand in other regions is inactive, and most large and medium - sized oil mills have not started purchasing [5] Group 3: Soybean Market Analysis Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract was 4123.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 43, down 68 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information - The new - season soybeans in the Northeast region are stable. The state - owned reserve purchase price has been set, and high - protein soybeans may flow into the state - owned reserve. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream traders purchase on - demand. The domestic soybean market is oversupplied, and prices may decline if there is concentrated selling later [2] - The price of the soybean futures main contract rose the most in nearly 3 months. The demand side is mostly waiting and watching or making small - scale purchases. The rising prices in the production areas are not well - accepted by the demand side, and some dealers are waiting for price drops to buy [3] Group 4: Soybean Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] Group 5: Peanut Market Analysis Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 7802.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 7950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 2.00, up 10.00 or - 83.33% from the previous day [4] Market Information - The average price of general peanuts in the national peanut market is basically stable. The prices of different varieties vary by region. The contract purchase prices of oil mills for general peanuts and oil - making peanuts are different, and the arrival volume of peanuts from the Northeast is average [4][5] - The peanut futures are consolidating. After the busy farming season in Henan, farmers' selling attitudes differ. The supply of high - quality peanuts is limited, and the prices of low - quality peanuts are under pressure. Some traders are purchasing high - quality peanuts from the Northeast, but the overall demand in other regions is inactive [5] Group 6: Peanut Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of soybeans is tight, and the futures price of soybeans reached a new high in the current period. The new soybeans in the Huanghuaihai region are expected to be slowly launched, and the harvest and launch of new soybeans in the southern region are generally delayed. For peanuts, the futures price fluctuated downward, with stable supply in the Northeast. The market should focus on the actual supply progress and quality of summer-sown peanuts in Henan and Shandong, and also pay attention to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4086.00 yuan/ton, up 58.00 yuan/ton or 1.44% from the previous day. Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A11 - 46, down 58 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information Summary - The new-season soybean harvest in the Northeast is almost finished. Grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing, and high-protein soybeans are in high demand. The prices of low-protein common soybeans range from 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower grains vary according to protein content. The prices of standard first-class medium-grained tower grains in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [2] Market Situation - The futures price of soybeans reached a new high. Affected by the southern production reduction, the market sentiment in the Northeast was high, and high-protein soybeans had a strong upward trend. The Huanghuaihai region was in a state of supply shortage, and new soybeans were expected to be launched slowly. Continuous rainfall in the South delayed the autumn harvest, and the large-scale launch of new soybeans was postponed. In some areas, the wet surface farmland ratio exceeded 50%, and the limited number of drying towers exacerbated the tight spot circulation [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7958.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis was PK11 + 242.00, down 30.00 or 11.03% from the previous day [4] Market Information Summary - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was basically stable at 4.18 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions varied, and the supply was scarce in some areas. The contract procurement prices of oil mills for common peanuts were 8200 - 8300 yuan/ton, and for oil peanuts were 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in arrivals [4] Market Situation - The peanut futures price fluctuated downward. The supply in the Northeast was stable with obvious quality advantages, and the market mainly purchased Northeast peanuts. With the improvement of weather in Henan and Shandong, the supply of summer-sown peanuts was expected to increase. Currently, the demand support was limited, and attention should be paid to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - For soybeans, the futures price of the bean one 2511 contract closed at 3975.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible beans is A11+245, down 48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast new grain is increasing during the National Day. Protein content is low due to weather, but overall production is expected to be less affected, with a yield of 350 - 400 jin/mu. Downstream demand is average, and grain traders are cautious in purchasing. The overall supply in the Northeast soybean producing area is loose, with high - quality beans having better prices, but the demand side has not improved, and soybean prices still face long - term pressure [1][2] - For peanuts, the futures price of the peanut 2511 contract closed at 7704.00 yuan/ton yesterday, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts is 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis is PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. After the festival, the demand from oil mills has weakened, and the supply varies greatly in different regions. The listing pace in the Northeast is accelerating, while that in the North China region is slower due to rainy weather, resulting in large regional price differences [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2511 contract was 3975.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11+245, with a change of -48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast, new grain is increasing, and there are different prices for different protein contents. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [1][2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7704.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. There are price differences in different regions, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3] Group 4: Market Information Summary Soybeans - In the Northeast, during the National Day, new grain is gradually increasing. The purchase price of 40 - protein rough grain is 1.9 yuan/jin, 41 - protein is 1.95 yuan/jin, and low - protein is 1.8 - 1.85 yuan/jin. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [2] - The spot prices of different regions in Heilongjiang are stable, such as 2.11 yuan/jin in Harbin, 2.10 yuan/jin in Shuangyashan, etc. [2] Peanuts - The national average price of peanut general rice is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from before the festival. There are price differences in different regions and varieties, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [2][3] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is currently stable with the futures and spot prices showing minor fluctuations. The domestic soybean supply is ample, which has put downward pressure on prices. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low, resulting in average market trading volume [1] - The peanut market is also experiencing a period of price volatility. Some production areas are affected by bad weather, leading to a limited supply. As the two major festivals approach, food companies have mostly completed their stockpiling, and some large oil mills have stopped production, resulting in a decline in demand [2] 3. Summary by Market Soybean Market - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean 2511 contract was 3938.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 282, down 3 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] - **Market Situation**: Domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, with a loose supply in the Northeast production area. Prices are under pressure, farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low [1] Peanut Market - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7822.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8450.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous day. The spot basis was PK11 + 478.00, down 24.00 or 4.78% from the previous day. The national average price of peanut kernels decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin [2] - **Market Situation**: Some production areas in Henan are affected by rainy weather, resulting in a low supply. The supply in Hebei, Liaoning, and Jilin is gradually increasing. As the two festivals approach, food companies' procurement enthusiasm has declined, and some large oil mills have stopped production [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].