油料日报 | 2025-10-10 花生上市节奏不一，区域价差扩大 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3975.00元/吨，较前日变化+48.00元/吨，幅度+1.22%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+245，较前日变化-48，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北地区国庆期间新粮逐步增量，40左右蛋白毛粮收购价1.9元/斤，41蛋白1.95元/斤，低蛋白价格 1.8-1.85元/斤，据反映因天气影响今年蛋白含量偏低，但整体产量预计影响不大，单产或在350-400斤/亩区间，目 前下游需求表现一般，粮贸企业收购谨慎，优质资源较为抢手，普通豆价格表现一般。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日 平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市 场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市 ...

大豆市场行情暂稳，盘面震荡调整 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3938.00元/吨，较前日变化+3.00元/吨，幅度+0.08%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+282，较前日变化-3，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥 化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 油料日报 | 2025-09-30 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，国内大豆陆续上市，东北产区供应宽松，价格承压走弱，农户惜售，贸易商收购积 极性清淡，市场成交一般。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2511合约7822.00元/吨，较前日变化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]

Group 1 - Soybean futures experienced fractional to 3 ½ cent gains, with deferred contracts leading the increase [1] - The national average Cash Bean price rose by 1 ¼ cents to $9.36 3/4 [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 40 cents to $3.80, while Soy Oil futures increased by 18 to 35 points [1] Group 2 - Crop Progress data indicated a 2% decline in condition ratings, now at 61% good/excellent [2] - The Brugler500 index fell by 4 points to 358, which is 4 points lower than the same week last year [2] - Some states showed improvement, including Illinois (+3), Minnesota (+2), and South Dakota (+1), while others like Indiana and Iowa decreased by 2, Missouri by 4, and Nebraska by 3 [2] Group 3 - Pakistan importers purchased 180,000 MT of soybeans, expected to be of US origin [3] - Following the suspension of Argentina's export tax, China reportedly purchased several cargoes of Argentine beans [3] - Closing prices for November 25 Soybeans were $10.12 (up 1 cent), Nearby Cash at $9.36 3/4 (up 1 1/4 cents), January 26 Soybeans at $10.31 3/4 (up 1 1/4 cents), and March 26 Soybeans at $10.47 3/4 (up 3/4 cent) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For soybeans, the policy continues to promote soybean auction sales, increasing supply pressure, while demand is weak. The dynamic of Sino-US trade relations in the imported soybean market may affect the long - term supply pattern, and domestic supply - demand is also influenced by policy and imported soybeans. For peanuts, new - season planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Short - term supply has slowed due to weather in Henan, and the long - term market depends on weather and demand [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2511 contract yesterday was 3935.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 305, up 39 (+32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable with a downward trend. New - season soybean growth is smooth, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. As new beans approach the market and state - reserve old grains are released, supply pressure may become prominent [1][2] Market Information - In Heilongjiang, prices in some regions dropped, such as in Harbin, the price was 2.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin; in Shuangyashan, it was 2.11 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin; in Jiamusi, it was 2.10 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Prices in some other regions remained flat [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, down 34.00 yuan/ton (-0.43%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8420.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 300.00, up 34.00 (+12.78%) month - on - month. The national average price of general old peanut kernels was 4.24 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. New peanut prices in various markets continued to decline weakly [4] Market Information - A Henan oil factory started purchasing oil peanuts at a contract price of about 7300 yuan/ton. New - season peanut planting area has a slight increase, and the total output is expected to remain high. Due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, new peanut moisture and price are unstable, suppressing purchasing enthusiasm. Bad weather in Henan has led to high moisture in peanuts, reducing the short - term supply [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of temporary tightness within an overall loose framework, mainly due to short - term supply and demand changes. The peanut market shows a significant differentiation during the new - old crop transition period [2][4] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract was 4107.00 yuan/ton, up 73.00 yuan/ton (+1.81%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 193, down 73 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] - The main soybean futures contract rose 1.83% due to short - term supply - demand changes [2] Supply - side Factors - Domestic soybeans have a short - term tight supply due to reduced grassroots surplus, state - reserve purchases, and traders' reserves. The import volume in August decreased and costs rose, and the drought in US soybean - producing areas revised the global supply expectation [2] Demand - side Factors - Policy subsidies, the summer consumption peak, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the recovery of pig farming all contribute to the demand for soybeans, resulting in a temporary tight supply - demand situation [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7988.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8400.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 212.00, down 44.00 (-17.19%) from the previous day [3] Market Conditions - The peanut market was volatile and weak. New peanuts were supported by delayed harvests and had strong prices, while old peanuts had weak demand and low - level price adjustments. Terminal demand was weak [3][4] Strategies - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy for soybeans: Neutral [3] - Investment strategy for peanuts: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybeans market is currently in a stalemate with reduced supply and weak demand due to factors such as delayed new - crop listings and hindered demand from soy product factories. However, there may be positive changes in some soybean transactions because of rigid procurement needs [2] - The peanut market is in a period of transition between old and new crops. The old - crop inventory is gradually being digested, and the new - crop listing is delayed by bad weather. The demand side is relatively flat, and traders are cautious in purchasing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract yesterday was 4067.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 42.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.02% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A09 + 233, a change of + 42 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The soybean prices in the Northeast market remained stable yesterday [1] Market Information - The continuous precipitation in the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions has reduced the short - term listing volume of new soybeans. The operation of soybean product factories is blocked, and the recovery of procurement demand has slowed down [2] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30% [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.47%. The spot basis was PK10 + 126.00, a change of + 24.00 compared to the previous period, an increase of 23.53% [3] Market Information - The domestic peanut market was in a state of range - bound consolidation. The old - crop inventory is almost digested, and the new - crop listing is affected by bad weather. The demand side is flat, and traders are purchasing cautiously [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [2] Core View of the Report - The soybean market is under supply pressure, with an increase in low - protein soybean supply due to continuous auctions by Cofco, a tightening of high - protein soybeans in traders' hands, and an expected further increase in supply as Hubei's new soybeans are gradually launched. The peanut market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a relatively light spot trading atmosphere, and peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2509 contract was 4118.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 182, a change of -2 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. Northeast soybean prices were stable today, with high - protein soybean quotes firm due to scarce supply. Douyi continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The continuous auctions by Cofco increased the supply of low - protein soybean spots, the high - protein soybeans in traders' hands became tighter, the market was in a wait - and - see mood, and the supply would increase as Hubei's new soybeans were launched [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.07%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8500.00 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, an increase of +0.00%. The spot basis was PK10 + 108.00, a change of -6.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -5.26%. The domestic peanut market was oscillating steadily yesterday, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.25 yuan/jin. The shipping speed in the producing areas has accelerated slightly, mainly inventory transactions. The market was generally quiet, and prices were basically stable. Peanuts continued their narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The domestic peanut market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the trading atmosphere was light. Given the weak terminal demand and the slow progress of new peanut listing, the overall trading atmosphere remained cautious. Peanut prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - Under the continuation of Sino - US tariff policies, the oilseed market is oscillating. The soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and the peanut market is generally weak with low downstream consumption and cautious middlemen [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 147, down 9 (-32.14%) from the previous day. On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. Northeast soybean prices were stable, with remaining grain mostly consumed and limited trader inventories [1][2] - **Market Factors**: The Sino - US negotiation result maintained the previous "reciprocal tariff" rate, and the US soybean export expectation had no substantial change. The soybean crop in the Northeast was growing well, and the supply was expected to be loose [3] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan/ton (-0.46%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 94.00, down 4.00 (-4.08%) month - on - month. The domestic peanut market was oscillating slightly downward, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.29 yuan/jin [4] - **Market Factors**: The peanut market was generally weak, with a sluggish downstream consumption environment, light trading, increased operating difficulties for middlemen, and strong risk - aversion sentiment [4]