石化产业结构调整

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供强需弱延续,纯苯承压,苯乙烯短稳
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 06:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market continues to operate weakly, facing dual pressures of supply accumulation and weak demand, with short - term trends likely to remain oscillating weakly [3] - Styrene has shown a phased stabilization due to sudden supply disruptions. In the short - term, it gets some support, but the medium - term trend may still be oscillating if there are no subsequent favorable factors [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On September 18, the styrene main contract closed down 1.06% at 7062 yuan/ton, with a basis of 38 (- 4 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.96% at 5999 yuan/ton [2] - On September 18, Brent crude oil closed at 63.7 dollars/barrel (+ 0.4 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil main contract closed at 67.4 dollars/barrel (+ 0.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (- 1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking compared to the previous period; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (- 1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2] - Styrene plants have started maintenance, with production and capacity utilization decreasing. Weekly styrene output was 34.7 tons (- 0.7 tons), and plant capacity utilization was 73.4% (- 1.5%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 61.7% (+ 0.7%), ABS was 69.8% (- 0.2%), and PS was 61.2% (- 0.7%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply has increased as some units have resumed production after maintenance and new plants have released output. Demand is weak as downstream industries'开工 rates have declined and terminal enterprises have low stocking willingness. The cost support from international crude oil is limited. The short - term trend is likely to be oscillating weakly [3] - **Styrene**: Supply has tightened due to maintenance and production suspension of some plants, leading to a mild price rebound. Demand improvement is limited, and downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventories. Although port inventory has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level. The short - term is supported, but the medium - term may oscillate [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - From September 16 to 17, the styrene futures main contract decreased 0.28%, the spot price increased 0.14%, and the basis increased 13.51% [6] - The pure benzene futures main contract decreased 0.26%, and the prices in East China, South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [6] - The pure benzene domestic - CFR spread increased 0.33%, and the East China - Shandong spread decreased 500% [6] - Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha prices remained unchanged [6] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From September 5 to 12, Chinese styrene output decreased 5.97%, and pure benzene output increased 0.49% [7] - The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 10.18%, the domestic factory inventory increased 2.52%, and the national pure benzene port inventory decreased 3.36% [7] (3) Capacity Utilization - From September 5 to 12, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased 4.76%, that of caprolactam decreased 4.21%, that of phenol decreased 6.20%, and that of aniline decreased 4.44% [8] - In styrene downstream, the capacity utilization of EPS increased 8.19%, ABS increased 1.00%, and PS increased 0.90% [8] 3. Industry News - The US has imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [9] - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 8.3% [9] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South and Northeast China [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including those on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc., with data sources mainly from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][15][20]
两苯去库难改弱势,市场仍承压整理
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 08:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The current pure benzene market remains weak. Supply is increasing due to the restart of some petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene units, and new production from Shandong and Hebei. Demand is sluggish as the downstream industries'开工率 is weakening, and there are no signs of peak - season stocking. Crude oil has limited support for the cost of pure benzene. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile consolidation [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene has shown a temporary stabilization due to sudden production cuts. Supply has tightened in the short term because of planned and unplanned equipment issues. However, demand improvement is limited, and the overall inventory level is still high. If there is no continuous maintenance or significant policy support, the medium - term market will likely fluctuate with the trend of crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Prices**: On September 17, the styrene main contract closed down 0.28% at 7,138 yuan/ton with a basis of 42 (+5 yuan/ton), and the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.26% at 6,057 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 63.3 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil was 67.4 dollars/barrel, both unchanged. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,970 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - **Cost**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil remained stable, and the spot price of pure benzene in East China did not change [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% decrease, and pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% decrease [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production decreased to 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2]. - **Demand**: The 开工率 of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: The market is likely to stay weak in the short term due to supply - demand contradictions and insufficient market confidence [2]. - **Styrene**: Short - term price support comes from sudden supply disruptions, but the medium - term trend depends on maintenance and policy [3]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The report provides price data for styrene and pure benzene (futures and spot), their basis, upstream prices (crude oil and naphtha), and price differences between different regions and types of products [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: Data on styrene and pure benzene production and inventory from September 5 to September 12 are presented, showing changes in production volume and inventory levels [6]. - **开工率**: The 开工率 data of pure benzene and styrene downstream industries from September 5 to September 12 are given, indicating the operating conditions of these industries [7]. 3.3. Industry News - The US imposing high tariffs on Asian chemical products has led to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. - In the first half of 2025, China's refining and chemical industry's losses continued to intensify, with the refining and chemical sector losing over 9 billion yuan more than the previous year. - China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China, with coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes various charts showing the prices, production, inventory, and 开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream products over different time periods, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]
油价反弹有限,纯苯苯乙烯弱势震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 06:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction and weak short - term trends [2] - Styrene has limited supply reduction in the short term, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On September 12, the styrene main contract closed down 0.86% at 7,020 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 (+6 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.86% at 5,988 yuan/ton [2] - On September 12, Brent crude oil closed at $62.4 per barrel (-$1.3 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.4 per barrel (-$1.1 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,895 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene inventory was 17.7 tons (-2.0 tons), a 10.2% month - on - month inventory reduction; pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 tons (-0.5 tons), a 3.4% month - on - month inventory reduction [2] - Styrene production in September will have equipment maintenance, and supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly production of styrene is 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of the three downstream products of styrene varied. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, with slow inventory reduction, and short - term trends are weak and fluctuating [2] - Styrene: Supply reduction provides some support, but supply pressure remains, demand increase is limited, and short - term trends are mainly fluctuating [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Prices - On September 12, the styrene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 7,020 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 1.00% to 7,320 yuan/ton; the pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 0.86% to 5,988 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.67% to 5,895 yuan/ton [5] - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.04% to $62.4 per barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.66% to $66.4 per barrel [5] Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, China's styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.49% to 45.6 tons [6] - During the same period, styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18% to 17.7 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.52% to 22.0 tons; pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased by 3.36% to 14.4 tons [6] Capacity Utilization Rates - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 4.76% to 75.0%, and the capacity utilization rates of other downstream products also decreased to varying degrees [7] - Among the styrene downstream products, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 8.19% to 61.0%, ABS increased by 1.00% to 70.0%, and PS increased by 0.90% to 61.9% [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and coordinated development in South China and Northeast China [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content provides charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, etc., and the data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [9][11][21]