欧洲早盘交易中，油价基本持平。布伦特原油持平于每桶67.75美元，西得州中质油上涨0.1%至每桶 62.44美元。荷兰国际集团分析师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey在一份报告中写道，鉴于美伊紧张局势 的不确定性，市场价格中仍反映了很大的风险溢价。他们写道，美国总统特朗普有关政权更迭对伊朗来 说是最好结果的言论将加剧担忧。不过，这些分析师写道，乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的和平谈判似乎更趋于 缓和，可能会消除部分石油风险溢价。这些分析师写道，如果风险溢价降低，将使更为利空的石油基本 面占据主导地位，并推动价格走低。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Israel's recent precision strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure have heightened volatility in the global oil market, with analysts warning that the escalation of conflict could inject more risk premium into crude oil prices [1][2] - The attacks have temporarily destroyed gas processing facilities related to Iran's South Pars gas field and forced the shutdown of a production platform, leading to significant explosions and fires [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged by 14% to around $73 per barrel following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict is expected to escalate and could last for an extended period, potentially impacting economic targets and causing civilian casualties, which may further increase risk premiums in oil prices [2] - The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical variable, with Iran threatening to block this key transit point, which could lead to oil prices soaring to $130 per barrel if closed [3] - Despite concerns, some analysts believe that fears regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be overstated, as Iran has historically threatened but not executed such actions [3] Group 3 - Iran remains the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, with a daily output of approximately 3.4 million barrels, despite facing heavy U.S. sanctions [4] - The International Energy Agency has indicated that the global oil market is well-supplied and is prepared to utilize emergency reserves if necessary [4]