布伦特原油价格维持在每桶71美元左右，交易员正在权衡美国和伊朗即将举行的会谈可能带来的结果。 然而，目前的价格水平正呈现出一些市场参与者所说的"稳定假象"，同时美国在中东大规模部署军力令 投资者紧张不安。SEB Research首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop称："不过，Cboe原油波动率指数 处于高位，且接近昨日创下的近期高点。""正在观望事态发展。"该指数衡量未来30天原油价格的预期 波动性。欧洲后市，布伦特原油上涨0.6%，至每桶71.02美元，西得州中质油上涨0.5%，至每桶65.66美 元。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

原油期货小幅走高，美国和伊朗计划举行会谈，这缓解了对美国即将采取军事行动的担忧。摩根士丹利 将第二季度和第三季度的布伦特原油价格预期分别上调至每桶62.50美元和60美元，此前的预期均为 57.50美元。摩根士丹利分析师在一份报告中称，伊朗局势的可能情景包括：通过谈判解决且不出现供 应干扰；以及美国发动大规模打击、伊朗做出回应，从而导致油轮延误和全球原油出口减少。他们的核 心观点是"实际供应几乎不会受到干扰"，并且"虽然霍尔木兹海峡被彻底和持续关闭并非不可能，但我 们不将其作为核心情景"。布伦特原油上涨0.3%，报每桶71.95美元；西得州中质油上涨0.4%，报66.73 美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures declined amid light trading as investors returned from the Presidents' Day holiday, entering a week with reduced trading hours [1][7] - Concerns over ongoing AI spending and competitive pressures continue to weigh on the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which saw futures drop by 0.7% [1][9] - European markets opened quietly, with most blue-chip indices rising, including the FTSE 100, which increased by 0.4% [2][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar rose to an 11-day high against a basket of currencies, supported by risk-averse capital flows as traders returned from the holiday [3][9] - Gold prices fell below $5,000 per ounce, with New York gold futures down by 2.2% to $4,937.40 [6][12] - Oil prices declined ahead of direct talks between the US and Iran, with Brent crude down by 0.9% to $68 per barrel [5][11] Economic Data and Expectations - Investors are awaiting key economic indicators, including the ADP employment data and inflation figures from the US and Japan, to be released later in the week [1][5] - The market anticipates the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and fourth-quarter economic growth data, which may provide insights into future interest rate cuts [3][9] Stock Performance - The Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.6% in pre-market trading, with most of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks declining, except for Amazon, which rose by 0.2% [1][7] - The Nikkei index closed down 0.2%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, with SoftBank shares dropping by 5.1% [2][7]

油价在早盘下跌，美国和伊朗定于周二晚些时候在日内瓦举行直接会谈。布伦特原油下跌0.9%，至每 桶68美元；西得州中质油下跌0.8%，至每桶62.66美元。"因春节假期导致流动性稀薄，限制了价格的更 大波动，"荷兰国际集团分析师表示。但紧张局势依然严峻，短期内油价可能保持波动。据媒体报道， 伊朗周一在重要的 石油运输咽喉要道霍尔木兹海峡举行了实弹军事演习，加剧了外界对若无法达成外 交解决方案，该地区石油供应可能中断的担忧。投资者也在关注由美国斡旋的俄罗斯和乌克兰官员之间 的会谈。 ...

欧洲早盘交易中，油价基本持平。布伦特原油持平于每桶67.75美元，西得州中质油上涨0.1%至每桶 62.44美元。荷兰国际集团分析师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey在一份报告中写道，鉴于美伊紧张局势 的不确定性，市场价格中仍反映了很大的风险溢价。他们写道，美国总统特朗普有关政权更迭对伊朗来 说是最好结果的言论将加剧担忧。不过，这些分析师写道，乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的和平谈判似乎更趋于 缓和，可能会消除部分石油风险溢价。这些分析师写道，如果风险溢价降低，将使更为利空的石油基本 面占据主导地位，并推动价格走低。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil futures are experiencing slight fluctuations as the market focuses on the upcoming US-Iran negotiations, with heightened geopolitical risks impacting prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by 0.1% to $63.26 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.2% to $67.49 per barrel, maintaining levels near six-month highs [1] - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions, particularly following the US downing of an Iranian drone near a naval carrier, which has kept risk levels elevated [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - There is a potential for significant price reversals if concerns about oversupply resurface, aligning with the International Energy Agency's 2026 forecasts and OPEC's recent neutral adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing a decline in early Asian trading on January 26, indicating a potential technical correction after previous gains [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On the previous Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Brent crude oil settled up by 2.9% and 2.8% respectively [1] - Currently, near-month WTI futures are down by 0.3%, priced at $60.86 per barrel, while near-month Brent futures are down by 0.4%, priced at $65.64 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to research from Deutsche Bank, oil prices may decline once recent production disruptions that have supported prices come to an end [1] - Commodity analysts have noted that oil supply from Libya and Kazakhstan has been affected, but there are signs of easing [1]

Group 1 - Crude oil futures rebounded from previous declines due to concerns over U.S. military actions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran [1] - Dennis Kissler from BOK Financial noted that fears surrounding Iran and the impending severe cold weather across much of the U.S. are supporting oil prices, outweighing global supply abundance and the planned talks between Russia and Ukraine [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 2.8% to $61.04 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.7% to $65.78 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen but are expected to record a significant weekly decline, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a bearish outlook indicating a potential oversupply in the market next year [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil increased by 0.5% to $61.59 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose by 0.6% to $57.77 per barrel [1] - Both benchmark crude oils have seen declines of 2.6% and 3.2% respectively this week [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are anticipated to be a major focus next week, alongside rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the anticipated scale of oversupply has narrowed, yet significant oversupply continues to cast a shadow over the market outlook [1] - OPEC's supply and demand forecast suggests that the market will be relatively balanced next year, contrasting sharply with earlier projections that indicated a tightening market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices in Asia experienced a decline, potentially influenced by technical corrections, following significant increases in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices on Friday [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Near-month WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.2% to $59.39 per barrel [1] - Near-month Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.1% to $63.70 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The market's attention may shift to the upcoming U.S. inventory data, especially in the absence of major news [1] - Barbara Lambrecht, a commodity analyst at Deutsche Bank, indicated that if U.S. crude oil inventories remain significantly below normal levels, oil prices could rebound [1]