1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene and styrene will remain strong. The conflict has three main impacts: reduced supply of pure benzene due to the reduction of cracking unit loads, especially in South Korea; increased domestic exports of styrene; and active replenishment by other downstream industries of pure benzene. The downstream profits are still relatively high, and it is not yet time for negative feedback. Next week, the market will still be in a state of inventory reduction, price increase, and no significant profit squeeze [3][67]. - The valuation of this round mainly refers to the situation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100, around 10,000 yuan/ton of styrene (on the futures market) is a reasonable range. However, the current naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and the BZN fluctuates greatly, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene imports: After the second quarter, imports have been reduced to 38 - 400,000 tons under the background of continuous load reduction of overseas refineries [3][67]. - Domestic production of pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from March to May is 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of domestic refineries. Preventive load reduction has occurred in Fujian United, CNOOC Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei, etc. this week. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new load reduction in subsequent refineries [3][67]. - Styrene: There is still uncertainty about the start - up of marginal devices such as Jingbo and Yuhuang in March. The maintenance loss in March is 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons in April [3][67]. Demand - Caprolactam and adipic acid: Prices have risen, industry profits have been rapidly repaired, and PA6 inventory has also been rapidly depleted. The average monthly output is higher than previously expected, and there is less maintenance [3][67]. - Phenol: Profits remain high, and the start - up rate is also continuously rising. There are not many maintenance devices. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Shandong Ruilin [3][67]. - Aniline: Profits remain high. The maintenance volume in March is 17,000 tons, and there is less maintenance from April to May. It will remain high in the short term [3][67]. - The demand for 3S downstream of styrene exceeds expectations. After the market rose rapidly, downstream factories entered the inventory replenishment cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for a good start after the Spring Festival, stimulating the inventory replenishment process of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3S. Currently, downstream profits remain resilient [3][67]. Valuation - This round of valuation mainly refers to the Russia - Ukraine situation. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100, around 10,000 yuan/ton of styrene (on the futures market) is a reasonable range. However, the current naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and the BZN fluctuates greatly, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3][67]. - Absolute price valuation: Based on the valuation of crude oil at $100, the reasonable valuation range of the bz2603 contract is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3][67]. - EB processing fee: It is not recommended to short the processing fee in the short term because the ethylene contradiction is too large, and the phased profit fluctuates greatly [3][67]. Strategy - Unilateral: When the absolute price hits the daily limit, buy call options at an appropriate time [3][67]. - Cross - variety: Expand the BZN spread [3][67].