1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene and styrene are mainly in high - level oscillations. The impacts of the conflict have been gradually factored into the absolute price valuation, so it is not advisable to chase high in the short term. However, from the relative valuation of aromatics - naphtha, the valuation of aromatics is not expensive [3][71]. - In the second quarter, after the aromatics blending oil demand starts, it is very likely that various price spreads will exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100, around 10,000 yuan/ton of styrene (on the futures market) is a reasonable range. Currently, the naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and BZN is compressed to a historical low, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3][71]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene imports: After the second quarter, imports have been adjusted down to 38 - 400,000 tons under the background of continuous load reduction of overseas refineries [3][71]. - Pure benzene domestic production: The average monthly maintenance loss from March to May is 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of domestic refineries. Preventive load reduction has occurred in Fujian United, CNOOC Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei, etc. this week. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new load - reduction in refineries [3][71]. - Styrene: There is still uncertainty about the start - up of marginal devices such as Jingbo and Yuhuang in March. The maintenance loss in March is 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons in April [3][71]. - Caprolactam and adipic acid: Prices have risen, industry profits have been rapidly repaired, and PA6 inventory has also been rapidly depleted. The average monthly output is higher than previously expected, and there is less maintenance [3][71]. Demand - Phenol: Profits remain high, and the start - up rate is also continuously rising. There are not many maintenance devices. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Shandong Ruilin [3][71]. - Aniline: Profits remain high. The maintenance volume in March is 17,000 tons, and there is less maintenance from April to May. It will remain at a high level in the short term [3][71]. - The demand for 3S downstream of styrene exceeds expectations. After the market rose rapidly, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the restocking process of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3S. Currently, downstream profits remain resilient [3][71]. Viewpoints - The reduction of the load of cracking devices leads to a significant reduction in the supply of Asian pure benzene, corresponding to a decline in pure benzene imports to around 380,000 tons in April, which is significantly beneficial for the subsequent de - stocking of pure benzene ports [3][71]. - The domestic export of styrene continues to increase. The net export of styrene in the Middle East directly affects India and Europe, and the global balance is re - evaluated. The overseas styrene start - up rate continues to decline, and further load reduction overseas brings new opportunities for domestic exports. Assuming that the styrene export is more than 100,000 tons after April, if the subsequent maintenance of some refineries in East China is implemented, there is still a possibility of de - stocking in styrene ports [3][71]. - Other downstream industries of pure benzene start to actively restock. Due to the increase in demand from March to June and the short - term spot gap of pure benzene, downstream industries start to actively restock. Currently, downstream profits are still relatively high, and it is not yet the time for negative feedback [3][71]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on the valuation of crude oil at $100, the reasonable valuation range of the bz2603 contract is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3][71]. - EB processing fee: It is not recommended to short the processing fee in the short term because the ethylene contradiction is too large, and the phased profit fluctuates greatly [3][71]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy pure benzene on dips [3][71]. - Cross - variety: Buy pure benzene and short PTA [3][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene and styrene will remain strong. The conflict has three main impacts: reduced supply of pure benzene due to the reduction of cracking unit loads, especially in South Korea; increased domestic exports of styrene; and active replenishment by other downstream industries of pure benzene. The downstream profits are still relatively high, and it is not yet time for negative feedback. Next week, the market will still be in a state of inventory reduction, price increase, and no significant profit squeeze [3][67]. - The valuation of this round mainly refers to the situation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100, around 10,000 yuan/ton of styrene (on the futures market) is a reasonable range. However, the current naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and the BZN fluctuates greatly, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3][67]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene imports: After the second quarter, imports have been reduced to 38 - 400,000 tons under the background of continuous load reduction of overseas refineries [3][67]. - Domestic production of pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from March to May is 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of domestic refineries. Preventive load reduction has occurred in Fujian United, CNOOC Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei, etc. this week. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new load reduction in subsequent refineries [3][67]. - Styrene: There is still uncertainty about the start - up of marginal devices such as Jingbo and Yuhuang in March. The maintenance loss in March is 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons in April [3][67]. Demand - Caprolactam and adipic acid: Prices have risen, industry profits have been rapidly repaired, and PA6 inventory has also been rapidly depleted. The average monthly output is higher than previously expected, and there is less maintenance [3][67]. - Phenol: Profits remain high, and the start - up rate is also continuously rising. There are not many maintenance devices. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Shandong Ruilin [3][67]. - Aniline: Profits remain high. The maintenance volume in March is 17,000 tons, and there is less maintenance from April to May. It will remain high in the short term [3][67]. - The demand for 3S downstream of styrene exceeds expectations. After the market rose rapidly, downstream factories entered the inventory replenishment cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for a good start after the Spring Festival, stimulating the inventory replenishment process of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3S. Currently, downstream profits remain resilient [3][67]. Valuation - This round of valuation mainly refers to the Russia - Ukraine situation. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100, around 10,000 yuan/ton of styrene (on the futures market) is a reasonable range. However, the current naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and the BZN fluctuates greatly, so the valuation center still has upward momentum [3][67]. - Absolute price valuation: Based on the valuation of crude oil at $100, the reasonable valuation range of the bz2603 contract is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3][67]. - EB processing fee: It is not recommended to short the processing fee in the short term because the ethylene contradiction is too large, and the phased profit fluctuates greatly [3][67]. Strategy - Unilateral: When the absolute price hits the daily limit, buy call options at an appropriate time [3][67]. - Cross - variety: Expand the BZN spread [3][67].