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镍与不锈钢日评:低位震荡-20250929
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:17
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250929: Low-level Fluctuation" [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 1,560 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 163,506 hands (-13,524), and the open interest was 83,884 hands (-15,758). The inventory increased by 48 tons to 25,153 tons [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,200 dollars (-270), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,155 dollars (-85), and the on - site closing price was 15,175 dollars (-104). The trading volume was 5,802 hands (-3,431). The LME nickel inventory decreased by 462 tons to 230,124 tons [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 85 to 100 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract was 175,317 hands (+45,420), and the open interest was 98,722 hands (-11,174). The inventory decreased by 298 tons to 87,505 tons [2] Spot Prices - The average prices of various nickel and stainless steel products, such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, 304/2B stainless steel coils, etc., mostly decreased on September 26, 2025, compared to the previous day [2] Inventory Data - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 971 million wet tons (-12 million), SMM Shanghai保税区 nickel inventory decreased by 656 tons to 40,828 tons, and the total inventory of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel showed different trends [2] Group 3: Industry News - On September 25, 2025, the head of the Mineral and Coal Directorate General of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that about 35 trillion Indonesian rupiah of post - mining reclamation deposits had been raised from mining and coal enterprises. The compliance rate of enterprises in terms of reclamation deposits had increased from 39% to about 72% [2] - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang International Region held the opening ceremony of its 30,000 - ton electrolytic nickel production line, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Nickel - On September 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories tightened. On the demand side, demand for alloys and electrolytic nickel was stable. Considering that inventory pressure exists and the fundamentals are weak, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to gradually take profit on short positions [2] Stainless Steel - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated downward, spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. On the supply side, stainless steel production schedules in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. Cost - end prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. With relatively loose fundamentals but cost - end support and limited inventory pressure, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and watching [2]