Report Title - "Silicon Strategy Monthly Report, February 2026" [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, silicon stone enterprises enter the winter maintenance period, industrial silicon production in the southwest stops completely, and large factories in Xinjiang will cut production by 50%. Downstream industries will also enter full - scale maintenance due to the Spring Festival holiday. Under the game of supply reduction, the price has cost support, but whether there is upward momentum depends on whether large factories have unexpected production cuts. In February, Huadian's centralized project will open bids. Although component manufacturers have significantly raised prices, there is pressure of high - price but low - demand due to the limitation of terminal IRR. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting mentioned the anti - monopoly issue again, and the signing of new silicon wafer orders has come to a halt. The pessimistic expectation in the crystalline silicon market continues, and there is still pressure for silicon material prices to fall. Attention should be paid to whether the industry inventory can be reduced and whether silicon material factories have plans to expand production cuts [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - In January, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 30th, the main contract closed at 8,850 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.11%. The polysilicon futures trended weakly, and the main contract closed at 47,140 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 18.6% [5]. 2. Spot Price - The spot prices remained stable across the board. The price of non - oxygenated 553 remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, oxygenated 553 at 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 at 9,900 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon decreased by 0.1 million yuan/ton to 48,000 yuan/ton, and N - type decreased by 0.45 million yuan/ton to 55,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Spread - In January, the spread between 553 remained stable, the spread between high - and low - grade products remained stable, and the regional spreads of 553 and 421 remained stable. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount of 10 yuan/ton to par, and the polysilicon spot changed from a discount of 4,920 yuan/ton to a premium of 4,160 yuan/ton [5][17]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in January was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The number of monthly operating furnaces decreased by 33 to 210, and the operating rate decreased by 4.15 percentage points to 26.4% [4][5]. 5. Demand - In January, the polysilicon production decreased by 33,800 tons to 83,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%. The DMC production decreased by 22,100 tons to 183,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% [4][5]. 6. Inventory - On the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon increased by 18,600 tons to 69,700 tons in January, and the polysilicon inventory increased by 137,000 tons to 253,000 tons. In the social inventory, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 16,800 tons to 439,000 tons, among which the factory inventory decreased by 15,800 tons to 250,300 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port increased by 2,000 tons to 59,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 79,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 51,000 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 2.47 tons to 33.3 tons [4][5].

硅策略月报 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 工业硅&多晶硅：供给分歧，跌幅不等 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计5月国内工业硅产量31.54万吨，同比下滑19.5%，环比下滑0.3%。月度开炉数下滑3台至215台，开炉率下滑 | | | 0.38%至7.25%。北方地区，新疆大厂月内新停14台矿热炉，甘肃、陕西、内蒙各停1台；西南地区，云南新停1台矿热炉，四川硅厂 | | | 点火开启15台。其他地区宁夏新开3台矿热炉，青海新开1台，福建及广西各停2台。 | | | 2.需求：5月多晶硅产量下滑1.2万吨至8.76万吨，同比下滑49.9%，环比下滑12%。5月DMC产量增加1.24万吨至17.3万吨，同比增 | | | 36.9%，环比增长7.7%。多晶硅P型月度下跌600元/吨至3.27万元/吨，N型月度下跌1700元/吨至3.68万元/吨。晶硅产业链进去全面 | | | 主动降库存阶段，自下而上接货意愿持续走低，导致各环节排产下滑。拉晶端采购多倾 ...