| 2 | | --- | | 2 | | 2 | | 2 | | 3 | | 3 | | 4 | | 7 | | 9 | | 10 | 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 10 月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 | | 日期 | 9月24日 | 9月23日 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | | 9月18日 较上周末 较上月末 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主流牌号 现货价格（元/ | 华东通氧553现货价格 昆明通氧553现货价格 | 9500 9600 | 9500 9600 | 9500 9600 | 9350 9500 | 9350 9500 | 1.60% 1.05% | 4.97% 3.78% | | | 天津通氧553现货价格 | 9400 | 9400 | 9400 | 9300 | 9300 | 1.08% | 4.44% | | 吨） | 华东421现货价格 | 9700 | 9700 | ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅震荡延续，多晶硅现实压力 仍存 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/09/27 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 ◆ 需求： 基本面评估 | 工业硅基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 成本&利润 | 产量 | 需求 | 库存 | | 数据 | 553#（不通氧）升 水期货主力合约340 | 新疆平均成本报8404.17 元/吨（在产企业综合成 本，下同）；云南地区报 | 周度产量为9.56万吨 | 多晶硅产量环比微增； | 百川盈孚统计口径工业硅 库存69.57万吨，环比 | | | 元/吨；421#贴水主 力合约60元/吨 | 9387.50元/吨；四川地区 报9095 ...

专家分享：有机硅行业现状与展望 20250926 摘要 全球有机硅产能向中国转移，2025 年中国有机硅单体产能占全球 77.33%，较 2021 年提升 10.39%。海外产能因成本等因素下降，中 国聚硅氧烷进口依存度降至 5%以下，主要进口高端及特殊用途产品。 中国有机硅单体产能增速放缓，2025 年无新增产能释放。新疆、云南、 内蒙古等地因成本优势成为新建产能集中地，华东地区凭借地理优势产 能占比过半。行业开工率有所回落，前三季度为 76.15%。 2025 年 DMC 价格跌至近十年新低，受供应端快速增长和需求端增速有 限影响。春节后企业曾限产保价，但随着盈利恢复，开工率提升导致供 应增加，价格承压下行。前三季度中间体累计消费量同比微增 5.5%。 有机硅下游产品消费结构中，硅橡胶占比下降，硅油需求增速加快。 2024 年硅橡胶需求占比降至 59%，硅油占比提升至 38.77%，特种和 改性硅油市场快速发展，对有机硅中间体的消费持续上升。 中国聚硅氧烷出口量增长放缓，但仍保持高位。2025 年前 8 个月出口 同比增长 1.47%，出口依赖度为 21.23%。全球产能转移、价格优势和 质量提升推动出口 ...

多晶硅：回调企稳后买入 工业硅：短期多单参与，顺势而为 228/210/172 181/181/181 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 工业硅基本面数据跟踪 | 6 | | 第三章 | 多晶硅基本面数据跟踪 | 17 | 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 多晶硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 从供需来看，9月硅片排产环比8月增加6GW至58GW，折算多晶硅需求约11.6万吨。9月多晶硅总体开工率变化不 大，预计多晶硅产量维持13万吨附近。当前多晶硅实物库存45万吨左右，上游库存20万吨左右，下游原料库存约30万吨 （含预购）。 多晶硅产能整合是节奏问题而非结果问题，多晶硅长期价格向上较为确定。长线来看，多晶硅现货价格易涨难跌， 且后市不断有利好传 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals, news, and trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing data on prices, volumes, inventories, and other indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon Si2511: The closing price was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,687 lots, up 76,381 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 285,490 lots, down 25,607 lots from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon PS2511: The closing price was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 253,135 lots, down 76,477 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots from T - 1 [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 was +445 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against East China Si4210 was -105 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against Xinjiang 99 silicon was -105 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was -1105 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.3 Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 was 9950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 52600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was -2366 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1; in Yunnan (new standard 553) was -3311 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 17.5 tons, and the industry inventory was 71.8 tons [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 21.9 tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5; in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 [1] - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In August, China's exports of photovoltaic cells not installed in modules or assembled into blocks were about 143477 million, a month - on - month increase of 37767.7 million (35.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 75696.1 million (111.7%) [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Hengstar Technology (002132) has confirmed its subsidiary Hengstar Chemical is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of organic silicon and related products [1] - The main products of Hengstar Chemical include DMC, D5, 110 glue, 107 glue, and fumed silica [1] - The company will disclose any new developments in its business layout in a timely manner [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamental outlook for industrial silicon has improved, while the short - term market sentiment for polysilicon has cooled down [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 9,305 yuan/ton, with a volume of 510,306 lots and an open interest of 311,097 lots. PS2511 closing price is 52,700 yuan/ton, with a volume of 329,612 lots and an open interest of 115,849 lots [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums or discounts vary when benchmarked against different products. For example, the premium against East China Si5530 is +445 yuan/ton. Polysilicon spot premium against N - type re - feed is - 1105 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed is 52600 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2366 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3311 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 14.1 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 290 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1725 yuan/ton, and Ningxia washed coking coal is 1100 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Price - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) is 1.68 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) is 0.305 yuan/watt, and components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) is 0.682 yuan/watt [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon Price and Profit - The price of DMC is 10800 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1123 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.9 Aluminum Alloy Price and Profit - The price of ADC12 is 20950 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 170 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia is actively stabilizing the revenue level of new energy projects, promoting the high - quality development of new energy. In 2025, Hohhot plans to implement 107 key projects in the new energy industrial cluster with an investment of 96.9 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting industrial silicon at high prices and indicates that the short - term sentiment for polysilicon may cool down [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, profit, and raw material costs, and also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 (industrial silicon) had a closing price of 8,905 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 280 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 475,698 lots, and the open interest was 285,052 lots. PS2511 (polysilicon) had a closing price of 53,205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 285 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 505 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume was 198,758 lots, and the open interest was 122,834 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different changes compared to different benchmarks. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 445 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 15 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 330 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 200 yuan compared to T - 5, and 100 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 52,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan compared to T - 1, 1,050 yuan compared to T - 5, and 5,600 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,366 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan compared to T - 1, - 165 yuan compared to T - 5, and 55 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5. The manufacturer inventory of polysilicon was 21.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Ningxia was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1 and T - 5, and up 130 yuan compared to T - 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was officially put into operation, which can transmit 36 - 40 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, meeting 1/6 of Hunan's electricity demand. Sungrow provided 1.27GW high - power string inverters for the Ningxia photovoltaic base of the project [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon was both - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3].

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Title: Industrial Silicon: Monitor Market Sentiment Changes; Polysilicon: Spot Prices Rise Slightly [1][2] Core Views - The industrial silicon market has been persistently sluggish, but companies like Yongchang Silicon Industry are taking proactive measures to optimize production and reduce costs [2][4] - Polysilicon spot prices have seen a slight increase [2] Industry Data Summary Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon (Si2511)**: The closing price was 8,965 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,990 lots and an open interest of 285,673 lots. Compared to previous periods, the price, volume, and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Polysilicon (PS2511)**: The closing price was 53,490 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 186,238 lots and an open interest of 126,234 lots. There were also significant changes compared to previous periods [2] Basis and Price - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot premium/discount varied depending on the grade and region. For example, the premium/discount for Xinjiang 99 silicon was -215 yuan/ton [2] - **Polysilicon**: The spot premium/discount for N-type recycled materials was -1,440 yuan/ton [2] Profit - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were -2,306 yuan/ton and -3,251 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon enterprise profits were -14.1 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory was 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory was 17.4 million tons, and the total industry inventory was 71.3 million tons. Futures warehouse receipt inventory was 24.9 million tons [2] - **Polysilicon**: Manufacturer inventory was 21.9 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - **Silicon Ore**: Prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 330 yuan/ton and 300 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Washed Coal**: Prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,700 yuan/ton and 1,100 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Petroleum Coke**: Prices for Maoming Coke and Yangzi Coke were 1,400 yuan/ton and 1,770 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Electrodes**: Graphite electrode and carbon electrode prices were 12,450 yuan/ton and 7,200 yuan/ton respectively [2] Other Industries - **Organic Silicon**: DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton, and enterprise profit was -1,162 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 price was 21,050 yuan/ton, and recycled aluminum enterprise profit was 160 yuan/ton [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [4] - Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 (slightly bullish) [4] Company News - Yongchang Silicon Industry has implemented a series of measures to optimize production and reduce costs, achieving continuous improvement in production indicators and significant enhancement in cost control [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]