随着煤炭基本面好转、新项目不断推进，在基本面向好的同时公司仍具成长潜力，给予"强烈推荐"评 级。 风险提示：煤价超预期下跌风险、安全生产风险、新建产能不及预期风险、宏观经济波动风险。 反内卷&需求维持，焦煤企业盈利有望反弹。淮北矿业生产煤种以主焦煤和肥煤为主，具备资源稀缺属 性，全球范围内新增的优质炼焦煤煤矿都比较少，随着煤炭行业"反内卷"的推进，超产现象得以控制， 落后产能也将逐步退出，我国炼焦煤产能反而有下降压力。海外方面，印度对炼焦煤的需求不断提升， 蒙古运输能力仍存在瓶颈，未来炼焦煤供需有望保持紧缺。我们认为2025 年焦煤行业处于底部，未来 有望逐步好转。 公司发展焦化并且打通精细化工，提升产业链利润水平。公司通过临涣焦化建成焦炭产能440 万吨，为 提升自身焦化资源的利用率，公司后续建成了90 万吨甲醇，60 万吨无水乙醇，以及10 万吨DMC。当 前公司还有在建3 万吨碳酸脂、3 万吨乙基胺产能，加大精细化工发展水平。其中乙基胺属于附加值较 高的产品，有望进一步提高公司化工行业的毛利水平。 淮北矿业地处华东，拥有稀缺的焦煤资源，通过投资新项目稳步成长。淮北矿业为淮矿集团旗下煤炭上 市平台，地处华 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polysilicon market, Tongwei Co., Ltd. has fully shut down its polysilicon production capacity, and GCL Technology has cut production, leading to a reduction in February's polysilicon output to around 80,000 tons. The boost from export rush to downstream operating rates fell short of expectations, but at the current silicon wafer operating rate, a monthly output of around 46GW can theoretically lead to polysilicon inventory reduction. From late December to January, there were basically no bulk transactions in the polysilicon spot market, and manufacturers' inventories have significantly accumulated to 340,000 tons. Anti - involution policies are expected to continue, with a greater emphasis on market - oriented principles in the future. Currently, the polysilicon spot market is under great pressure, and if some manufacturers significantly cut prices, the spot price may drop to near the cost line of each company. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the spot price after the festival [4]. - In the industrial silicon market, this week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 1.90% to 41,300 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.05% to 19,200 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 57.9%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.3%. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 14.05% to 63,200 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 34 to 184. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.8 tons to 562,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.3 tons to 208,700 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.02 tons to 238,400 tons. Due to major manufacturers' planned production cuts and the increased production - cut expectations of silicone enterprises after a meeting last week, combined with a bearish commodity market atmosphere, the industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly. Currently, the basis is at a relatively high level, and manufacturers are not willing to cut prices. The futures price is undervalued, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, it is possible for the futures price to further decline and then undergo re - valuation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait for the market to stabilize [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Tongwei's full - scale shutdown and GCL's production cut led to a reduction in February's output to around 80,000 tons. There was basically no bulk trading in the spot market from late December to January, and inventories reached 340,000 tons. At the current silicon wafer operating rate, a monthly output of 46GW can lead to theoretical inventory reduction [4]. - **Market Policy**: Anti - involution policies will continue, with more emphasis on market - oriented principles in the future. Measures such as state reserves and selling at no less than cost may continue, while manufacturers' joint price - holding actions have been cancelled [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival. After the festival, if the spot price drops to near the previous low, consider lightly increasing long positions or buying call options. The bottom of the spot price can be referred to the range of (45,000, 46,000) [4][5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the output of downstream products decreased, and the output and the number of open furnaces of industrial silicon also decreased. The social inventory increased, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the downstream raw material inventory increased slightly [6][15][19][25]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to production cuts and a bearish market atmosphere, the futures price dropped significantly. The basis is high, and manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices. The futures price is undervalued, but there is a possibility of further decline and re - valuation before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reduce long positions and wait for the market to stabilize. The operating range of the futures price can be referred to (8,200, 9,100) [6][7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures prices broke through support levels and declined, while spot prices remained stable. The basis strengthened [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 1.90%, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.05%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.9 percentage points, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1 percentage point [15]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: The weekly output decreased by 14.05% to 63,200 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 34 to 184. Major manufacturers cut production as planned, and the operating rates of other manufacturers remained stable for the time being [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 562,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.3 tons to 208,700 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory increased by 0.02 tons to 238,400 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: This week, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable, as did DMC and terminal product prices [30][35]. - **Intermediate and Downstream Industry Data**: The operating rate of silicone intermediates decreased slightly, the price of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rate increased slightly. The price of industrial silicon raw materials remained stable [41][45][48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: This week, the prices of silicon wafers and distributed components decreased, while the prices of batteries, polysilicon, and centralized components increased [52]. - **Component Data**: Due to the previous sharp increase in silver prices, the cost of photovoltaic components increased significantly, and the economic viability of export rush was hindered. Although the silver price has recently declined, the component production schedule is still at a low level due to the short export - rush window period around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the photovoltaic component production schedule in February will be 30GW. The European photovoltaic component inventory is 34.2GW, and the domestic manufacturers' component inventory is 26.1GW, both at a relatively low - to - neutral level [61]. - **Battery Data**: The export tax refund for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The incremental demand for battery export rush may be less than that of components. It is expected that the photovoltaic battery production schedule in February will be adjusted down to around 35GW [62]. - **Silicon Wafer Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 28.32GW. The export tax refund for silicon wafers will be cancelled simultaneously with that of components, and there is still demand for silicon wafer export rush. The silicon wafer production schedule in February will remain flat at 46GW compared to the previous month [68]. - **Polysilicon Data**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 340,000 tons. GCL Technology reduced its operating rate, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. shut down all production. The polysilicon operating rate in February will not change much compared to January, and the output may be reduced to around 80,000 tons due to Tongwei's shutdown and the number of days in the month [73].

2026 年 02 月 05 日 品 研 究 工业硅：下方空间不深 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,850 | 35 | 90 | 120 -62,906 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 208,226 | -48,015 | -35,488 | | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 241,016 | 6,216 | 5,333 | 23,724 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 51,195 | 1,195 | 390 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 13,013 | -5,284 | 4,652 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） ...

2026 年 02 月 04 日 期货研究 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 多晶硅：关注北京会议情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,815 256,241 | 20 -210,484 | -45 38,449 | -45 31,016 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 234,800 | -1,513 | -7,825 | 30,806 | | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,000 | 2,950 | -1,900 | - | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605成交量（手） | 18,297 | 508 | 7,073 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 38,411 | -1,867 | -3,028 | - | | | | ...

硅策略月报 2026 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 工业硅&多晶硅：供需双弱，情绪悲观 p 2 工业硅&多晶硅：供需双弱，情绪悲观 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计1月国内工业硅产量33.3万吨，环比下滑6.4%，同比增长11.5%,。月度开炉数减少33台至210台，开炉率下滑4.15%至26.4%。 | | | 西北地区，新疆大厂月内关停23台矿热炉，陕西新开2台，新开2台，西北总计173台硅炉在产；西南地区，云南延续12台矿热炉在产，四川关停 | | | 7台，西南总计12台硅炉在产。其他地区，内蒙关停7台，河南关停1台。 | | | 2.需求：1月多晶硅产量下滑3.38万吨至8.31万吨，同比下滑12.6%，环比下滑28.9%。1月DMC产量下滑2.21万吨至18.3万吨，同比下滑21%，环 | | | 比下滑10.8%。监管及行业自律要求下，硅料厂继续下调开工，下游订单收缩，对高价较为抵触，1月订单仍在协商，实际成交寥寥，仍以完成 | | | 前期订单 ...

证券日报网讯2月2日，双欣环保（001369）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司年产10万吨DMC 配套年产3万吨锂电池用EMC/DEC项目投产后生产顺利，产品市场认可度较高，2026年该项目将按照正 常状态组织生产。目前下游客户电解液厂商对公司产品正在进行小试和中试验证；部分电解液厂商已实 现了批量供货。后续公司将进一步研发适配高电压、固态电解液的高纯溶剂，提升杂质控制精度，降低 水分与金属离子含量，以更好的适配动力电池与储能电池需求。 ...

格隆汇2月2日丨双欣环保(001369.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司年产10万吨DMC配套年产3万吨锂电 池用EMC/DEC项目投产后生产顺利，产品市场认可度较高，2026年该项目将按照正常状态组织生产。 目前下游客户电解液厂商对公司产品正在进行小试和中试验证；部分电解液厂商已实现了批量供货。后 续公司将进一步研发适配高电压、固态电解液的高纯溶剂，提升杂质控制精度，降低水分与金属离子含 量，以更好的适配动力电池与储能电池需求。 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司年产10万吨DMC及3万吨锂电池用EMC/DEC项目 已进入生产投放，1. 项目生产是否顺利，市场认可度如何，2026年目标产量是多少？2. 请介绍下游客户 （电解液厂商）的认证与合作进展，以及公司后续在该业务上的扩产计划或战略目标。 双欣环保（001369.SZ）2月2日在投资者互动平台表示，公司年产10万吨DMC配套年产3万吨锂电池用 EMC/DEC项目投产后生产顺利，产品市场认可度较高，2026年该项目将按照正常状态组织生产。目前 下游客户电解液厂商对公司产品正在进行小试和中试验证；部分电解液厂商已实现了批量供货。后续公 司将进一步研发适配高电压、固态电解液的高纯溶剂，提升杂质控制精度，降低水分与金属离子含量， 以更好的适配动力电池与储能电池需求。 （记者 王瀚黎） ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：上游减产落地，对价格构成支撑 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,850 | -75 | 30 | 135 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 557,616 | 257,384 | 327,652 | 175,201 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 236,627 | -26 | 5,193 | 15,562 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 47,140 | -2,195 | -3,580 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 19,537 | 3,911 | 6,094 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,513 | ...

2026 年 01 月 30 日 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,925 | 165 | 100 | 45 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 300,232 | 56,518 | 70,102 | -234,338 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 236,653 | 970 | 8,165 | 11,911 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 49,335 | -1,470 | -1,180 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 15,626 | 7,265 | 4,704 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 42,745 | 1,330 | -573 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -45 | -5 | -45 | -45 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） ...