2025 年 8 月 27 日 公司研究 油价下跌业绩承压下滑，静待大炼化迎来底部反转 ——荣盛石化（002493.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：10.16 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 99.89 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1014.93 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 7.63/11.27 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 16.76% | 股价相对走势 -10% 0% 11% 22% 32% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 荣盛石化 沪深300 PX 景气下行 Q4 业绩承压，新材料项目建设 稳步推进——荣盛石化（002493.SZ）2024 年年报点评（2025-04-29） 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年 H1 公司实现营业收入 1486.3 亿 ...

工业硅周报:供需两旺，短期震荡偏强 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 5 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 221/221/221 208/218/234 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 工业硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供需：本周DMC周度产量5.14万吨，环比增加0.39%；多晶硅周度产量2.92万吨，环比增加2.85%；原生铝合金开 工率56.6%，环比增加1个百分点，再生铝合金开工率53.9%，环比持平。本周工业硅周度产量8.47万吨，环比增加 1.50%。本周工业硅开炉数量增加10台，其中新疆+2、四川+3、甘肃+3、重庆+1、青海+1、宁夏+1。工业硅社会库 存54.5万吨，环比降低0.37%。 交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of industrial silicon will be based on the cost after the cancellation of electricity price subsidies. The resumption of production in the southwest region will be the marginal driving factor, and the overall price center may rise slightly, but there is also a possibility of a significant downward pressure after low expectations. For polysilicon, the policy expectations have peaked, and the valuation has reached a bottleneck. The market's attention has shifted to the industrial supply pressure and weak demand structure. The spot price is anchored to the cost, and the futures center follows the premium of high - quality warehouse receipts. The dynamic news of capacity integration gives the futures market a phased premium. Continuously track the opportunity of shorting SI and going long on PS during the concentrated integration of polysilicon capacity and the resumption of production rhythm of industrial silicon in the southwest region [2]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - In July, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. As of the 31st, the main contract 2509 closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 9.18%. The polysilicon futures fluctuated upward, and the main contract 2509 closed at 49,130 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 46.5% [4]. 2. Spot Price - The spot price continued to recover. The Baichuan reference price was 9,592 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of non - oxygenated 553 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 increased by 950 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 increased by 1,250 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon increased by 4,800 yuan/ton to 35,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon increased by 11,800 yuan/ton to 45,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Spread - In July, the spread between 553 grades widened, the spread between high and low grades widened, the regional spread of 553 widened, and the regional spread of 421 widened. The industrial silicon spot changed from a discount to a premium of 390 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot changed from a premium to a discount of 3,135 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Supply - According to Baichuan, it is estimated that the domestic industrial silicon production in July was 352,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 6.6%. The monthly number of open furnaces increased by 47 to 262, and the furnace opening rate increased by 5.9% to 32.9%. In July, the polysilicon production increased by 9,400 tons to 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The DMC production in July increased by 20,500 tons to 207,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% and a month - on - month increase of 11% [2][4]. 5. Demand - Under the anti - involution policy, new capacity investment has stagnated, but the backlog of inventory has not been significantly reduced. After the inventory of downstream silicon wafers decreased, enterprises began to accept price increases and enter the market to purchase. Due to the sudden shutdown and maintenance of a large organic silicon factory in Shandong, the overall supply of monomer plants continued to shrink. Affected by the previous low prices, there were many pre - sale orders. Recently, influenced by the upstream price increase and the psychology of "buying on rising" of downstream customers, the purchase volume continued to improve marginally, and the inventory pressure of monomer plants was relieved [2]. 6. Inventory - In terms of the exchange, the overall inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 9,000 tons to 253,000 tons in July, while the polysilicon inventory increased by 14,100 tons to 92,100 tons. In terms of social inventory, the industrial silicon inventory increased by 5,400 tons to 442,900 tons in July, among which the factory inventory increased by 5,900 tons to 271,400 tons; the inventory at Huangpu Port remained stable at 55,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port remained stable at 68,000 tons, and the inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 500 tons to 48,500 tons. The monthly inventory of polysilicon increased by 5,600 tons to 27,540 tons [2][4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand, with short - term prices tending to be weak, but the possibility of price fluctuations due to new narratives needs to be watched [15]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see production increases in August, with downstream production scheduling also increasing to a certain extent. However, the inventory may slightly accumulate, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Weekly Key Points Summary - Demand: The weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. The DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons [13]. - Price: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [14]. - Cost: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply: The weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 9.097 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to June was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [14]. Fundamental Assessment - The industrial silicon market has a complex situation. The basis shows a premium, the cost is basically stable, the supply has increased this week, the demand has marginally improved, and the inventory remains high. The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies. The price is in a high - level shock. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and cautious participation is advised [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of N - type re -投料 polysilicon was 47 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2509) closed at 49,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,825 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,200 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 4.68% [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon Total Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. In June 2025, the industrial silicon production was 331,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 321,000 tons or 14.74% [30]. Main Production Areas' Production - The report shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. Production Cost - As of August 1, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged. The price of refined coal in main production areas also remained unchanged. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [43][46]. Visible Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. In July, the polysilicon production was 106,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production was 679,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.03% [54]. Operating Rate and Scheduling - As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of polysilicon in July was 39.23%, a month - on - month increase of 3.91 percentage points. The expected production in August was 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon inventory was 275,800 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics and 229,000 tons according to SMM's statistics, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. Cost and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon production cost was 41,333.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight decrease; the gross profit was 3,416.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week continuous improvement [63]. Silicon Wafer - The weekly silicon wafer production was 11GW, a week - on - week slight decrease. In July, the silicon wafer production was 52.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09GW. From January to July, the silicon wafer production was 373.08GW, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a week - on - week slight increase. The predicted production in August was 53.29GW, a month - on - month slight increase [66][69]. Battery Cell - In July, the battery cell production was 57.26GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.07GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in July was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative battery cell production was 385.79GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.33%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.33GW, a week - on - week continuous decrease. The expected production in August was 59.15GW, a month - on - month slight increase [74][77]. Module - In July, the module production was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.8GW. The operating rate of modules in July was 45.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative module production was 330.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.5GW, a week - on - week continuous increase. The expected production in August was 46.82GW, a decrease compared to July [82][85]. 05. Organic Silicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons. In July, the DMC production was 206,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative DMC production was 1.4334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.17% [92]. Price and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 12,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was - 215.63 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [95]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons [99]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports Aluminum Alloy - As of August 1, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 20,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 320 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 909,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 108,900 tons or 13.6%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1% [104][107]. Exports - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [110].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is the Industrial Silicon August Monthly Report, dated July 31, 2025, and is a research report on the non - ferrous sector [14][25][34] Group 2: Price Data Industrial Silicon Spot Prices - As of July 29, 2025, the East China oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.97% from the previous weekend and up 15.98% from the end of last month; the Kunming oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.00% from the previous weekend and up 15.29% from the end of last month; the Tianjin oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,650 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from the previous weekend and up 15.57% from the end of last month; the East China 421 spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from the previous weekend and up 15.34% from the end of last month; the Kunming 421 spot price was 10,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous weekend and up 3.03% from the end of last month; the Tianjin 421 spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous weekend and up 14.12% from the end of last month [14] Other Important Spot Prices - The Tianjin 99 - silicon price was 9,600 yuan/ton, down 3.03% from the previous weekend and up 16.36% from the end of last month; the Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 3.70% from the previous weekend and up 15.19% from the end of last month [14] Downstream Product Prices - The price of polycrystalline silicon N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 35.82% from the end of last month; the DMC price was 12,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 19.14% from the end of last month; the aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous weekend and unchanged from the end of last month [14] Warehouse Receipt Data - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 49,846 sheets, up 0.27% from the previous weekend and down 5.01% from the end of last month [14] Group 3: Supply and Demand Data 2025 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the supply and demand of industrial silicon showed fluctuations. For example, in January, the supply was 35.52 tons, and the consumption was 35.52 tons, with a balance of 0.00 tons; in February, the supply was 32.69 tons, the consumption was 32.78 tons, with a balance of - 0.09 tons; in July, the supply was 37.65 tons, the consumption was 37.61 tons, with a balance of 0.04 tons [15] July Regional Production - In July 2025, Xinjiang's production was 154,300 tons, accounting for 45.01% of the total, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 1,199,480 tons; Yunnan's production was 40,150 tons, accounting for 11.71%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 117,730 tons; Sichuan's production was 50,760 tons, accounting for 14.81%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 141,790 tons; Inner Mongolia's production was 43,700 tons, accounting for 12.75%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 296,760 tons [35]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced fluctuations in operating rates, currently recovering to 72%, but there is a severe oversupply in products related to new energy, such as industrial silicon [1][2] - Major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng have healthy cash flows and profitability, outperforming overseas competitors, which may lead to an optimization of the domestic chemical industry landscape as foreign companies exit [1][3] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical industry has turned negative at -1.1%, indicating a potential end to natural attrition [1][4] Organic Silicon Industry Insights - The organic silicon industry is expected to see no new capacity additions from 2025 to 2026, suggesting a potential recovery from the bottom [1][4][9] - The organic silicon supply chain shows that polysilicon is the largest downstream segment, accounting for 55%, while organic silicon represents 27.6% [1][6] - The DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) price is currently around 12,500 RMB/ton, with a profit margin of approximately 1,300 RMB/ton, which is at a decade low [2][13] - The total capacity of the organic silicon industry is projected to reach 3.44 million tons by 2025, having doubled since 2019 [1][8] Demand and Market Dynamics - The apparent demand growth for organic silicon is forecasted at 21% for 2024, with export growth at 34%, driven by the exit of overseas capacity and increased domestic demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors [1][10] - In the first half of 2025, the apparent demand growth reached 23.9%, although export growth saw a decline due to trade relations [11] - The organic silicon industry is currently in a favorable improvement trend, with a CR3 of 45.9% and CR5 of 61.9%, indicating a high concentration in the market [12] Industrial Silicon Sector - The industrial silicon sector is characterized as high energy consumption and low value, with a total capacity of 7.48 million tons, primarily concentrated in the Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan regions [2][16][17] - Current industrial silicon prices are around 9,600 RMB/ton, with mid-tier companies struggling to remain profitable [2][18] - The market outlook for industrial silicon is optimistic due to the potential for effective regulation and the implementation of anti-involution measures [19] Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the organic silicon sector include Hoshine Silicon Industry, which has a DMC capacity of 880,000 tons, holding a market share of 25.6% [2][14] - Other notable companies include Dongyue Group, Xian Chemical, and Luxi Chemical, which also have significant capacities and potential for profit growth [14][15][21] - The potential for profit improvement in the organic silicon sector is significant, driven by demand growth and the exit of less competitive players [7][12] Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly the organic silicon segment, is poised for recovery with no new capacity additions expected in the near term, while the industrial silicon sector faces challenges but shows signs of potential improvement through regulatory measures and market dynamics [1][4][19]

Report 1: Industrial Silicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of industrial silicon has increased after the production increase of leading large - scale factories and south - western silicon factories, there is still a supply - demand gap before the further significant production increase of the leading factory's Shanshan capacity. However, due to the significant callback of coking coal, glass, and soda ash on Friday night, the bullish sentiment may fade next week, and the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a callback [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 45,600 tons, a 4.60% week - on - week decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Trading Logic**: There is a supply - demand gap before the significant production increase of the leading factory. The bullish sentiment may fade, and the futures are expected to have a callback [3]. - **Strategies**: For unilateral trading, the bullish sentiment has faded, and short - term callbacks are possible, so previous long positions should be withdrawn. For options, hold the previous protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. The futures main contract closed at 9,725 yuan/ton on Friday. The industrial silicon spot prices strengthened significantly, and most grades exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: DMC output decreased, polysilicon output slightly increased, and the aluminum alloy operating rates remained stable. Some organic silicon enterprises had maintenance due to accidents, and the total maintenance capacity was 800,000 tons/year. The output of polysilicon is expected to increase in the future [9][13]. - **Industrial Silicon Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. If the leading factory starts 10 new 33000KVA submerged arc furnaces as planned, the monthly output will increase by about 20,000 tons [19]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, while the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices of Industrial Silicon - Related Products**: The spot prices of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [26]. - **Prices of Organic Silicon - Related Products**: The prices of DMC and terminal products strengthened this week [31]. - **Fundamental Data of Organic Silicon Intermediates**: The profit margin of DMC improved, and the operating rate decreased week - on - week [37]. - **Fundamental Data of Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [40]. - **Raw Material Prices of Industrial Silicon**: The electricity prices in the southwest decreased, and the price of refined coal in Xinjiang increased slightly [42]. Report 2: Polysilicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, polysilicon enterprises are expected to increase production, and there may be an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. After the significant callback of coking coal, soda ash, and glass on Friday, the polysilicon futures are expected to open significantly lower on Monday. If the capacity integration plan is finalized in the middle of the week, the bullish expectation of polysilicon futures still exists [48]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the polysilicon output is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production schedule is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply [48]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, withdraw long positions temporarily and re - enter after a sufficient callback. Hold put options. Gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [49]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - **Polysilicon Prices**: The spot quotations of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable this week. The actual transaction prices increased after the strengthening of polysilicon futures [56][62]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The prices of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the battery prices are expected to continue to rise [63][67]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of photovoltaic components increased slightly this week, and there is an expectation of further increase [68]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: The domestic component inventory decreased rapidly. The price increase of components was partially accepted, but the mechanism electricity price was negative. The orders and production schedules in August weakened [75]. - **Battery Fundamental Data**: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers decreased to 9.9GW. The battery production is scheduled according to demand, and the import demand from Turkey increased. The domestic battery production schedule in August is expected to be 52GW, a decrease of 2GW compared with July [81]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory increased to 17.87GW this week, and the production remained flat. The production schedule in August is expected to be the same as that in July [85]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production increased slightly this week, and the factory inventory increased to 275,400 tons. The production is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons in August [89].