编号：2026-001 | | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | √现场参观 □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名： | | | 国联民生 黄楷 | | 活动参与人员 | 公司接待人员姓名： | | | 副总经理兼董事会秘书 安志敏 | | | 重庆光谱新材料科技有限公司综合管理部部长 李鹏 | | 时 间 2026 | 年 3 月 21 日 | | 地 点 | 重庆光谱新材料科技有限公司会议室 | | 形 式 | 现场调研 | | | 1、PVA下游应用领域 | | | PVA是一种水溶性可降解高分子材料，具有粘结性、成纤 | | | 性、乳化稳定性、气体阻隔性、成膜性、生物降解性等优良性 | | | 能，用于生产工业助剂、特种纤维、胶粘剂、安全玻璃夹层膜 | | | （PVB膜）、水溶膜、光学膜等，广泛应用于精细化工、绿色建 | | 交流内容及具体 | 筑、造纸、纤维、汽车、可降解包装、光电、医药等行业，是 | | 问答记录 | 国家重点支持 ...

多晶硅：暂观望，关注政策信息 工业硅：区间震荡，关注供给侧变数 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 工业硅基本面数据跟踪 | 6 | | 第三章 | 多晶硅基本面数据跟踪 | 17 | 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 多晶硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 3月协鑫科技、青海丽豪等企业提产，多晶硅产量增加至8.4万吨附近。硅片成本不受有色金属影响，硅片抢出口经 济性仍存，3月份硅片排产环比2月增加至50GW。从纸面数据来看，3月多晶硅小幅去库。 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 3月上旬，N型致密料、复投料价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is mainly in a weak pattern, and the demand for polysilicon is declining [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 45 yuan compared to T - 1; PS2605's closing price was 42,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed certain changes [2] - **Basis**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends compared to different benchmarks [2] - **Prices**: The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, and battery cells all had certain fluctuations [2] - **Profits**: The profits of silicon factories, polysilicon enterprises, DMC enterprises, and regenerative aluminum enterprises also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon's social inventory, enterprise inventory, and industry inventory decreased to some extent, while the polysilicon's factory inventory increased [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes remained relatively stable, with only a few showing slight changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the application for the development and construction plan of on - shore wind power and photovoltaic power stations in 2026, specifying new application projects [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

2026 年 03 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：关注成本端抬升影响 多晶硅：供需偏弱 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,690 | 125 | 295 | -170 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 223,150 | -51,105 | -43,131 | 5,358 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 273,926 | -13,863 | -54,490 | 31,301 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 41,115 | -1,165 | -5,380 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 9,065 | -897 | -574 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 36,990 | 82 | -3, ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Organic Silicon Industry Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry has reached a consensus on a price increase of 300 RMB, with the mainstream price of DMC rising to 14,200-14,300 RMB. Future price adjustments will follow a rolling increase strategy of 300-500 RMB per instance [2][3] - The supply side is shifting from "production for sale" to "sales determine production," with no major new capacity expected in 2026. A reduction execution rate of 35% is needed to achieve supply-demand balance [2][3] - The global capacity of organic silicon is expected to increase from 77% to 85% in China by 2026 due to the accelerated exit of overseas capacities, such as Dow's planned shutdown of certain facilities [2][11] Demand Dynamics - Demand is characterized by "traditional steady growth + emerging explosive growth," with core increments coming from photovoltaic adhesives, electronic adhesives, and liquid silicone rubber for robotics. Traditional demand accounts for approximately 70% [2][24] - The cost side is supported by rising methanol prices, while industrial silicon remains stable due to reductions in the photovoltaic chain, with prices around 9,300-9,600 RMB. The complete cost for monomer plants is estimated at 10,500-11,000 RMB [2][24] Price Adjustments and Market Reactions - The cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1 has increased costs by approximately 1,200 RMB per ton, leading to a short-term rush in orders for March and pushing the industry towards high-value-added product transformation [2][22] - The next meeting is expected to be held between late April and early May, with price adjustments based on inventory levels, downstream inquiries, and procurement intensity [3] Cost Structure and Competitive Landscape - Major companies like Hesheng and Luxi have cost advantages of 300-700 RMB/ton through integration, low electricity prices, or energy efficiency of new facilities [2][24] - The procurement frequency for raw materials has increased from every 2-3 months to approximately 1-1.5 months due to a buyer's market [9] Future Price and Demand Projections - The price mechanism has significantly strengthened since November 2025, with prices no longer strictly following traditional seasonal logic. The ability to increase prices will depend on downstream acceptance and the rolling increase strategy [10] - The demand growth in 2026 is expected to be around 5%-7% for traditional sectors, while emerging sectors like photovoltaic adhesives and electronic adhesives will see faster growth [14][15] Emerging Applications and Innovations - The demand for photovoltaic adhesives is projected to grow significantly, with new installations estimated at 180-240 GW in 2026 [14] - The robotics sector is transitioning from R&D to commercialization, with expected global shipments of over 50,000 units in 2026 [16] Export Dynamics and Policy Impacts - China's organic silicon exports are projected to grow from 187,800 tons in 2021 to approximately 280,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 10.50% [22] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is seen as a double-edged sword, potentially reducing export volumes while pushing for a shift towards higher-value products [22] Conclusion - The organic silicon industry is undergoing significant changes in supply dynamics, pricing strategies, and demand structures. The focus on high-value products and the impact of external factors like export policies will shape the industry's future trajectory.

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/ 研究所 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 3 月报 2026年2月27日 | | | | 第一部分 前言概要… | | --- | | 【供需展望】 … | | 【交易逻辑】 … | | 【策略推荐】 … | | 第二部分 基本面情况 . | | 一、行情回顾 | | 二、需求：３月工业硅需求环比增加… | | 三、供应：3 月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂复产 | | 四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 | | 免责声明 | 第 1 页 共 12 本报告内容观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据 期货/研究所 工业硅 3 月报 有色板块研发 ...

2026 年 02 月 27 日 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,335 | -95 | -35 | -510 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 177,274 | 22,967 | 16,804 | -213,840 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 325,323 | 11,364 | 17,559 | 90,156 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 46,315 | -1,315 | -2,865 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,466 | 3,330 | 3,673 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 39,925 | 1,633 | 1,612 | - ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Organic Silicon Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the organic silicon industry, particularly the DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) segment, discussing supply-demand outlook and potential opportunities for rebalancing in the market [1][2] - The organic silicon sector has gained significant attention due to its alignment with the broader chemical industry trends, especially in light of rising energy costs affecting European production competitiveness [1] Key Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The industry is currently experiencing a slight oversupply, with production capacity expected to double by the end of 2024 compared to 2020 levels. Despite strong demand, supply expansion has outpaced it, leading to a bottoming out of market conditions [2] - **Price Trends**: The price of DMC has increased from 11,000 RMB per ton in late 2022 to 14,000 RMB currently, indicating a recovery in profitability for the industry after a period of losses [3] - **Industry Collaboration**: Major players in the organic silicon market have engaged in coordinated production cuts, which have positively impacted pricing and helped stabilize the market [2][3] - **Production Control**: Companies have adopted conservative production strategies, with inventory levels significantly lower than the previous year, indicating a proactive approach to managing supply [4] Additional Important Points - **Market Leaders**: Key companies mentioned include Dongyue Group, Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Hesheng Silicon Industry, all of which are positioned well within the market [6][11] - **Future Growth Potential**: The organic silicon market is projected to maintain a double-digit growth rate, driven by demand from sectors such as renewable energy, consumer products, and advanced materials [9][10] - **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Dongyue Silicon and Xingfa Group, particularly as the market enters a seasonal peak [6][10] - **Cost Structure**: The industry exhibits a flat cost curve, with a high concentration ratio (CR5 at 64%), which supports the potential for collaborative pricing strategies among major players [3][4] Conclusion - The organic silicon industry is poised for a recovery, with favorable supply-demand dynamics and collaborative efforts among key players. The current market conditions present significant investment opportunities, particularly as companies prepare for the upcoming peak season and manage inventory levels effectively [10][11]

Group 1: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased to 170,000 yuan/ton in January, up 42% from the previous month, while lithium hydroxide rose to 165,000 yuan/ton, up 62% [1] - The lithium battery industry saw a production increase of 35%-60% year-on-year in February, with separators and electrolytes exceeding 50% growth [5] - The overall lithium battery supply chain remains in a high prosperity phase despite a slight month-on-month production decline due to the Spring Festival [5] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Market - In December, China's wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the total for the year was 14.21 million units, up 26% [3] - The European market showed strong growth with a 35% year-on-year increase, while the U.S. market faced a decline of 35% due to the expiration of federal tax credits [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Developments - In December, China's installed energy storage capacity reached 63 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 95%, with a total of 146 GWh for the year, up 33% [4] - Europe added 33 GWh of energy storage capacity in 2025, a 46% increase, driven by large utility projects [4] Group 4: New Technologies in Battery Production - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards large-scale application, with global shipments expected to reach 36 GWh by 2025 [8] - Companies like CATL and Toyota are making significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, with mass production planned for 2027 [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies in the lithium supply chain, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Industrial, are recommended for investment due to rising prices in lithium and related materials [9]